Speculation: Nylander Contract Discussion III

[56 Years No Cup]

I’m not sure that being quite means that somebody has poor character....

He’s done plenty of charity events across the gta the last couple years including visits to Sick Kids. I don’t really care about players personal lives but he seems alright to me

I agree. No need to attack WN the man as it's very likely none of us personally know him.

 

[56 Years No Cup]

For me it has nothing to do with points at all, that is not the issue. It is complete and nothing more.

Same here. But others are stuck in their stats.

 

[GrizzLeaf]

Am I the only one happy that instead of the "big 3" we now have the "big 4"?

I get that trying to sign them all and stay competitive will be a monumental task. But hey man, that's Dubas' problem not mine. I'm just gonna sit back and enjoy the on-ice product and not worry about the backroom logistics.

 

[TheRexman]

There is some intelligent conversation on the main boards but mostly it's crap and yes, there is a ton of Leaf hate. I mostly just stay away unless I'm really, really bored. I get what you're saying about who you become there, I've been there too and I now try to look at it as an opportunity for character development - if you can wade through the garbage there and stay calm and collected, that's an accomplishment. I'm getting better at it but it's not easy.

There is some decent conversations there and I've tried staying away from Leafs related topics and yet there's always someone who feels the need to take swipes anyway on a topic that has nothing to do with the Leafs. The reserved me just moves on but now and then I get caught on a bad day and I type a few responses that will likely get me an infraction only to erase them before posting and walk away from the boards completely. Off-season is the worst lol.

 

[BlueForever75]

I'm seeing Willie taking a bridge 2 year deal and then lining up with his hands out wanting his $ 8 mil per long term deal ( as Darren Dreger is reporting) once he has the stats (ie PPG) to warrant it.

I agree. But at least at that time we will have Marleau, Gardiner, Hainsey off our team that frees up another 14 million in cap space. Keeping in mind younger players like Kapanen, Johnson, Lljigren, Dermott, etc.. will be off entry level deals and needing newer contracts as well.

 

[luvdahattymatty]

The salary cap issue going to keep coming up every single start of training camp for next several years. You guys better get used to it. This is only our first taste because team has sucked for so long. You can't be throwing your teammates under the bus because guys want more. There will be cast overs no doubt. But it does not have to happen this fall. Dubie is handling this like a pro staying away from the media types at all costs. If Alex or Willy talks to their buddies on isntigram and stuff gets out slowly well thats life. Maybe it is part of the agent plan maybe not but who cares this stuff is gonna happen. People talk to their friends we all do it. Dubie has to stay positive and keep spreading the message and things will work out over time in his favour. The Nylanders are pretty tight lipped. So are the Matthews. Marner well thats another story. But again this is a very tough job and you never hear Dubie saying so. He is taking his ps and qs from Shanny who is same way. Dubie looks to me like he has a happy personality, a positive outlook for team and a strong player focus. Nothing has slipped out from Leafs end which means it is probably Dubie Shanny and cap guys and board who are in the know. Everyone else on a need to know basis. This will get resolved .. when no one can know. But hearing that things are progressing and each side seems to be moving is a good thing. yeah there will be periods of time where things get stalemated and thats ok. sounds like it is in one of those periods right now but again thats life. at some point one side will say ok here is my final offer and if not accepted then enough of this lets get a bridge deal done. but it seems both sides want an 8 year deal if they can get there. and it is only the start of camp so no real pressure for another 3 weeks. once the payroll cheques start coming then it gets real.

 

[TheRexman]

I don't like who I become over there either. You're in Quebec I'm sure you deal with enough leaf hatred IRL anyway.

I do not wear my Leafs stuff outside of the house unless I'm just going to work. It's safe there. I'd likely get my car keyed and such if I started broadcasting my Leafiness on the street.

Quick off-topic, I was in Montreal's airport a few months ago and saw a guy walking around in a Matthews jersey. Had to shake his hand just for being so brave lol.

 

[Faltorvo]

That's a mistake, you won't just find a RD on the market that will compensate that loss of offence capability. It won't come cheap.

not sure how you can say that

A) one should wait to see the return

B) one should wait and see what it takes for me willi to show up at a training camp

 

[therealkoho]

So... where exactly do these insiders get their information from then?

you talk to 3 or 4 people in the organization(player personel, trainers and the like) do the math and then guess at the rest, but there isn't a GM or an assistant GM in the league that is going to jeopardize their position by giving anyone in the press team sensitive inside info, or discussing potential trades. Other GM's will never do business with you ever again and you very well might get fired if the owner doesn't like you sharing company information.

that said, the press do talk to the GM's, sometimes it's on the record and sometimes it's off,

if it's off the record and you print it, you've just made yourself radioactive ........good luck getting a dressing room pass ever again or talking to anyone in that organization....see Steve Simmons...he got barred just for being a dick, same as Feschuk who got sat down for a year for bugging Phil too much on top of the Reimer thing

 

[Cor]

James Mirtle says he expects Nylanders contract to fall within a cap hit of 4M, and 7.5M. The more bridge the contract is, the closer it goes to the 4M, while an 8 year deal would see it in the 7-7.5M range. Says he thinks the compromise will be a 6 year deal in the 6-6.5M range.

 

[Svanstrom]

not sure how you can say that

A) one should wait to see the return

B) one should wait and see what it takes for me willi to show up at a training camp

But I think that's obvious for anyone that if Nylander is asking for too much and won't budge an inch, then it has to be a trade. But what team is willing to overpay for his signing tho?
He will for sure be a part of Maple Leafs. The question is whether it's long term or bridge deal. It's quite clear now that we can't expect much of a team discount. I'd bet on that Nylander isn't really interested in a bridge deal, and that's is possibly something that is also stalling the negotiation.

 

[Menzinger]

James Mirtle says he expects Nylanders contract to fall within a cap hit of 4M, and 7.5M. The more bridge the contract is, the closer it goes to the 4M, while an 8 year deal would see it in the 7-7.5M range. Says he thinks the compromise will be a 6 year deal in the 6-6.5M range.

Basically likely the Elhers contract + small inflation.

Best option for both parties. And we now please stop all this hysteria in the thread

 

[therealkoho]

James Mirtle says he expects Nylanders contract to fall within a cap hit of 4M, and 7.5M. The more bridge the contract is, the closer it goes to the 4M, while an 8 year deal would see it in the 7-7.5M range. Says he thinks the compromise will be a 6 year deal in the 6-6.5M range.

careful there James that branch you're going out on is pretty thin, what a maroon

3yrs 5.5 book it

 

[SeaOfBlue]

I said this before, but might as well say it again:

Nylander can match himself up to Pastrnak, Ehlers, Monahan, etc. None of those guys got over 6.75 mill per year. Really, he shouldn't be getting much more than Ehlers did (6 mill AAVx 7 years). I personally think the main hold up is that Nylander's agent is probably using cap percentages and sticking hard to the "He did well for two years" thing. Pridham is probably sticking to the hard cap numbers because he does not think the Leafs should have to pay for a major inflation in the cap due to expansion and totally disregarding the fact that he put up two good years instead of one. Monahan put up two good years as well + was in the NHL for an extra half year (Nylander was in the AHL first and then played a half year) + has positional value (he was a center his entire career) + has defensive value. Ehlers signed early but you can bet his agent was banking on his client putting up similar numbers and was not using cap percentages because otherwise his agent just left a significant amount of money on the table. He two likely would have negotiated with the same sort of leverage as Monahan, minus the positional value and defensive value, hence he got a significantly lower cap percentage and overall dollar amount. Really, that is what should be happening to Nylander too.

What I would do, albeit with less knowledge of how much this would benefit the Leafs compared to cap wizard Pridham, is stick to the hard cap and to a 7 or 8 year term, but structure it in a way that would benefit Nylander more financially and give him some peace-of-mind about not getting dealt easily. This would apply to Marner and Matthews as well. The Leafs seem to be willing to sacrifice real money to benefit cap money, so might as well flex the financial muscle you've got.

The first thing to note is that there is a CBA negotiation in 2020-2021. Make that cap number as low as possible, with a signing bonus as high as possible. That way if there is a lockout, he doesn't lose out on much money. Front load his two RFA years (2018-2019 and 2019-2020) with a salary greater than his cap number, but not significantly greater. Maybe 500k-1 mill more than his cap number each year. Then his 2020-2021 salary will be quite low, and really you could make his 2021-2022 salary quite low as well. Then once again load up his UFA years with over-cap money for extra trade protection. By giving him signing bonuses, you are giving his money up front rather than over the course of the year. So the Leafs' provide protection from the lockout and from trades (without having to give him a significant NTC or anything), plus giving him a good portion of money at desirable times (typically the earlier you can get money, the better because of interest). In return, Nylander makes concessions on his cap number and term. Which really also benefits himself as well because that gives the Leafs more cap space to make a better team, which I would think also means something to him as well.

Obviously there must be some piece of information I am missing because if it was this simple, there is no reason why it would not be done unless either party (or both) is really trying to screw the other over (i.e. if Nylander's 8 mill ask is legit or the Leafs are trying to go sub-6). But if we are talking about less than 1 mill difference, the Leafs may decide they take a slightly larger hit financially to ensure they can lock up a key player on less cap.

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

6x6 or 6x6.5 would be good with me. i'd prefer 7 or 8 years, but the smaller cap hit would be nice

 

[Faltorvo]

James Mirtle says he expects Nylanders contract to fall within a cap hit of 4M, and 7.5M. The more bridge the contract is, the closer it goes to the 4M, while an 8 year deal would see it in the 7-7.5M range. Says he thinks the compromise will be a 6 year deal in the 6-6.5M range.

7 years X 6m per

he has not EARNED a penny more then Ehlers. Oh ya and Ehlers deal starts this season

 

[Notsince67]

James Mirtle says he expects Nylanders contract to fall within a cap hit of 4M, and 7.5M. The more bridge the contract is, the closer it goes to the 4M, while an 8 year deal would see it in the 7-7.5M range. Says he thinks the compromise will be a 6 year deal in the 6-6.5M range.

Reasonable.

careful there James that branch you're going out on is pretty thin, what a maroon

3yrs 5.5 book it

Will never happen. Way too much

 

[Muston Atthews]

you talk to 3 or 4 people in the organization(player personel, trainers and the like) do the math and then guess at the rest, but there isn't a GM or an assistant GM in the league that is going to jeopardize their position by giving anyone in the press team sensitive inside info, or discussing potential trades. Other GM's will never do business with you ever again and you very well might get fired if the owner doesn't like you sharing company information.

that said, the press do talk to the GM's, sometimes it's on the record and sometimes it's off,

if it's off the record and you print it, you've just made yourself radioactive ........good luck getting a dressing room pass ever again or talking to anyone in that organization....see Steve Simmons...he got barred just for being a dick, same as Feschuk who got sat down for a year for bugging Phil too much on top of the Reimer thing

Okay, so Nonis tells someone in the organization that he knows will talk to Dreger... the point stands.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Basically likely the Elhers contract + small inflation.

Best option for both parties. And we now please stop all this hysteria in the thread

It's a little bit more than small inflation. It's one or two less years UFA's being taken up (which is significant in itself) plus a higher cap percentage number and succumbing to the recent cap inflation. That's quite a bit different than the Ehlers' contract... Especially considering the Ehlers' contract itself probably already accounted for the recent cap inflation in their percentage number.

If it was 6.5x8, then the Leafs do pretty well for themselves. Not a steal, but it would be fair. Even 6.5x7 is pretty good, although I'd still fight to shave the money a bit per year. Once you get down to 6.5x5 or 6, then I start to wonder why they were negotiating so hard for a deal that already would favour Nylander by a fair amount.

Like I do not get where Mirtle is getting this 7.5 mill number from? No way in heck Nylander is getting almost 10% when all of his comparables are getting sub-9. Even the ones that have a lot more leverage than him. He should be getting less than Monahan and Pastrnak, and they were in the high 8's. Not even on an 8 year deal should he get that.

 

[Duke Silver]

Again... I have no problem paying players what they deserve. We just did it with Tavares, and I don't have a problem with it in the slightest.

If Nylander can prove that he's an elite player that deserves an elite contract, then I have no problem either giving him that contract, or trading that elite player while we still hold his rights.

But I do have a MASSIVE problem paying players inflated contracts on the hopes they get better. We all know the term fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me. Leafs Gm's should follow that. The leafs have been fooled THOUSANDS of times in a row spanning far more than a decade. They're NEVER right. Even based on luck they should have been right at least a few times by now... but they never are. EVER.

Dubas and Shanahan and the group have a tough choice. They know they shouldn't give Nylander a ridiculously stupid contract based on the HOPE he gets better. But then they remember they are part of the leafs, and that's just what the leafs do. You know... stupid things. What will win out? Dubas and Shanahan brains? Or the historical maple leaf stupidity? Time will tell I suppose...

Tavares is different. He was a UFA. And he signed for less than what the market was bearing.

For the second time, we wouldn't be paying Nylander like he's an elite player. He's going to end up in the $6.5m-$7.0m range when all is said and done. The whole point of negotiations is for one party to throw out an astronomical number and another party to throw out a lowball figure and they negotiate inwards.

I could give you a list of players who put up less points than Nylander in their first 185 games if it helps: MacKinnon, Draisaitl, Giroux, Kucherov, Benn, Seguin, Kuznetsov, Kessel.

Or how about a list of players who put up less points at 5v5 than Nylander's 76 from 16-18: Tavares (75), Marner (75), Laine (75), Seguin (71) just to name a few.

We don't have to hope that Nylander gets better. He has arrived. He has shown he can produce among the league greats, especially at 5v5, where he landed at #23 among all players in 5v5 points in 17-18.

Does Nylander deserve to be paid less than Ehlers? Monahan? Pastrnak? Larkin? Do you factor the rising of the cap into your salary concerns?

Then again I'm not sure why I'm bothering with all these stats since you continue to let a bunch of stuff that happened decades ago under different regimes and different eras colour how you evaluate our options. That's foolish.

Lol, people are going to lose their minds next year when the exact same thing happens with Marner.

 

[therealkoho]

Okay, so Nonis tells someone in the organization that he knows will talk to Dreger... the point stands.

silly boy

 

[Muston Atthews]

7 years X 6m per

he has not EARNED a penny more then Ehlers. Oh ya and Ehlers deal starts this season

Your post makes no sense. Ehlers signed his contract after 2 full seasons. A 38 point season and 64 point season.

Nylander is signing his contract after 2 full seasons putting up 61 points in each. Add on top 13 points in his short 22 game stint next to Colin Greening and your post is looking dumber and dumber

 

[shello]

The more this goes on the more I'd like to see him traded

 

[Faltorvo]

But I think that's obvious for anyone that if Nylander is asking for too much and won't budge an inch, then it has to be a trade. But what team is willing to overpay for his signing tho?
He will for sure be a part of Maple Leafs. The question is whether it's long term or bridge deal. It's quite clear now that we can't expect much of a team discount. I'd bet on that Nylander isn't really interested in a bridge deal, and that's is possibly something that is also stalling the negotiation.

again with the baseless assumptions

what makes you think the "other team" would see me willis contracts demands that way.

we have our cap structure and player type needs and 3 far more important players yet to fit into our cap

the "other team?" we don't know their needs/cap structure.

 

[Muston Atthews]

silly boy

You’re right. It’s such a complete coincidence that Dregers success rate dropped significantly after Nonis was fired