North American Pro Hockey of the Near Future

[My Cozen Dylan]

Houston and Las Vegas before Milwaukee or Hamilton. No doubt in my mind.

 

[Nerdlinger]

Houston and Las Vegas before Milwaukee or Hamilton. No doubt in my mind.

I can do a scenario for Houston and Las Vegas, but it will take some time to revise everything. Any thoughts on the Hamilton/Milwaukee scenario?

 

[mmazz22]

Your dumping teams to other leagues without even really knowing who is profitable and how.
For instance the Binghamton situation
per the Rochester newspaper

http://www.democratandchronicle.com...y-binghamton-financial-open-records/26929397/

The Binghamton Senators pay $2,000 in rent for each game, plus 12.5 cents per ticket sold if the hockey club earns more than $25,000 in net income; 25 cents per ticket if club income tops $50,000. There also is a per-game cap on comp tickets at 17.5 percent of all tickets sold, or 550 tickets, whichever is greater. Anything beyond that is treated as a ticket sold. Broome County furnishes arena staff, including ticket takers, ushers, security, at least one police officer, etc. The hockey club has exclusive rights to sell advertising for its events. The county has control over concessions, but assigns all revenue to the club. Those are the key points.


This team in this crap city in this crap arena that I call home is probably more profitable than AHL teams in much bigger markets/arena's.
There is a lot more to the business of hockey than butt's in the seats and size of market/arena.

 

[Nerdlinger]

Your dumping teams to other leagues without even really knowing who is profitable and how.
For instance the Binghamton situation
per the Rochester newspaper

http://www.democratandchronicle.com...y-binghamton-financial-open-records/26929397/

The Binghamton Senators pay $2,000 in rent for each game, plus 12.5 cents per ticket sold if the hockey club earns more than $25,000 in net income; 25 cents per ticket if club income tops $50,000. There also is a per-game cap on comp tickets at 17.5 percent of all tickets sold, or 550 tickets, whichever is greater. Anything beyond that is treated as a ticket sold. Broome County furnishes arena staff, including ticket takers, ushers, security, at least one police officer, etc. The hockey club has exclusive rights to sell advertising for its events. The county has control over concessions, but assigns all revenue to the club. Those are the key points.


This team in this crap city in this crap arena that I call home is probably more profitable than AHL teams in much bigger markets/arena's.
There is a lot more to the business of hockey than butt's in the seats and size of market/arena.

OK, I'm new to hockey and still learning. I can likely find a way to keep Binghamton in the AHL in my future scenario if need be. But that article doesn't seem to conclude anything about the Binghamton Senators' situation, though, unless I missed it. From the article:

What we don't know is whether the Broome County deal is a good one.

 

[Hoodaha]

Houston and Las Vegas before Milwaukee or Hamilton. No doubt in my mind.

Vegas might look at Long Beach or Fresno for AHL. Both cities are relatively close, near other AHL teams, and have servicable buildings.

 

[mmazz22]

The comment on the Sens deal being a good deal or not was sarcasim from the Amerks beat writer because the Amerks arena wont open the books up. He know's its a great deal the team has here.

 

[My Cozen Dylan]

Vegas might look at Long Beach or Fresno for AHL. Both cities are relatively close, near other AHL teams, and have servicable buildings.

In my opinion, Utah or Idaho will get a shot with Vegas as they are existing markets in the ECHL that do well. Seattle may go with the other of the two.

 

[Nerdlinger]

Vegas might look at Long Beach or Fresno for AHL. Both cities are relatively close, near other AHL teams, and have servicable buildings.

Good points. How about Reno? Not that far from Stockton, and in state to boot.

In my opinion, Utah or Idaho will get a shot with Vegas as they are existing markets in the ECHL that do well. Seattle may go with the other of the two.

Do you mean Utah and Idaho as ECHL affiliates or promoted to the AHL? If it's the AHL, there are the travel problems, since apparently almost everyone has to travel by bus. Now that I think of it, though, why is the ECHL different? Are they better funded?

The comment on the Sens deal being a good deal or not was sarcasim from the Amerks beat writer because the Amerks arena wont open the books up. He know's its a great deal the team has here.

Ah, I see. I'm not from the area, so I didn't pick up on the sarcasm.

 

[Clinton Comets EHL]

Your dumping teams to other leagues without even really knowing who is profitable and how.
For instance the Binghamton situation
per the Rochester newspaper

http://www.democratandchronicle.com...y-binghamton-financial-open-records/26929397/

The Binghamton Senators pay $2,000 in rent for each game, plus 12.5 cents per ticket sold if the hockey club earns more than $25,000 in net income; 25 cents per ticket if club income tops $50,000. There also is a per-game cap on comp tickets at 17.5 percent of all tickets sold, or 550 tickets, whichever is greater. Anything beyond that is treated as a ticket sold. Broome County furnishes arena staff, including ticket takers, ushers, security, at least one police officer, etc. The hockey club has exclusive rights to sell advertising for its events. The county has control over concessions, but assigns all revenue to the club. Those are the key points.


This team in this crap city in this crap arena that I call home is probably more profitable than AHL teams in much bigger markets/arena's.
There is a lot more to the business of hockey than butt's in the seats and size of market/arena.

Yep, I certainly agree. Hated the Dusters, Whalers, Rangers, Icemen and now the Sens 0n the ice but always hope Binghamton has a team, preferably in the AHL.

 

[Disengage]

Brampton shouldn't be in the midwest of the ECHL.

 

[Nerdlinger]

Brampton shouldn't be in the midwest of the ECHL.

That's OK, I got rid of Brampton.

The Beast draw very poorly. I figured with Hamilton getting an NHL team in my scenario that their OHL team could move to Brampton to replace them.

 

[Hoodaha]

Good points. How about Reno? Not that far from Stockton, and in state to boot.

Reno has been on the minor league map for years, but they don't have a building. They played early in the days of the old WCHL in a convention center that was not really made for hockey. They've been on a list of dark expansion teams in the ECHL for years. I can't remember if they ever gave up on the franchise. So long story short, very unlikely, though it's a city that I think could handle minor league hockey in some capacity.

Sacramento is similar. Always seemed like a good potential market, but never got their act together and got an arena situation that was possible for minor league hockey. I can't remember for sure, but I think the NBA team blocked it or their building couldn't produce ice. Something like that. I'm sure someone on the boards will recall the specifics. Either way, they've been talked about since the old WCHL days, and it's never happened. Stockton's very close to Sacramento (40-50 miles) - not sure if a Sacramento franchise would hurt Stockton or not.

 

[mmazz22]

Ha comets! I always hated Comets,Devils,prowlers and new Comets!
Here's to a new rivalry now that we're in the same division again!

 

[ZekeA]

OK, I'm new to hockey and still learning. I can likely find a way to keep Binghamton in the AHL in my future scenario if need be. But that article doesn't seem to conclude anything about the Binghamton Senators' situation, though, unless I missed it. From the article:

"Nerdlinger":


The way it was explained to me was that in the AHL has 30 different teams. Each team does things differently. So you have 30 unique business models.....

Therefore for you trying to forecast what will happen in the future is dam near impossible...................

Also what you fail to realize is that fans in AHL cities do not jump up and down at the thought of losing their AHL team in fact it pisses them off big time..................

 

[Nerdlinger]

Reno has been on the minor league map for years, but they don't have a building. They played early in the days of the old WCHL in a convention center that was not really made for hockey. They've been on a list of dark expansion teams in the ECHL for years. I can't remember if they ever gave up on the franchise. So long story short, very unlikely, though it's a city that I think could handle minor league hockey in some capacity.

Sacramento is similar. Always seemed like a good potential market, but never got their act together and got an arena situation that was possible for minor league hockey. I can't remember for sure, but I think the NBA team blocked it or their building couldn't produce ice. Something like that. I'm sure someone on the boards will recall the specifics. Either way, they've been talked about since the old WCHL days, and it's never happened. Stockton's very close to Sacramento (40-50 miles) - not sure if a Sacramento franchise would hurt Stockton or not.

Very interesting. What about San Francisco? I know about the recent Bulls disaster, but when the new Warriors arena gets built, it might also be a good spot for the AHL.

Ha comets! I always hated Comets,Devils,prowlers and new Comets!
Here's to a new rivalry now that we're in the same division again!

The good thing is that in both the actual 2015-16 AHL and in the ECHL in my scenario, Binghamton and Utica are together.

 

[Nerdlinger]

"Nerdlinger":


The way it was explained to me was that in the AHL has 30 different teams. Each team does things differently. So you have 30 unique business models.....

Therefore for you trying to forecast what will happen in the future is dam near impossible...................

Also what you fail to realize is that fans in AHL cities do not jump up and down at the thought of losing their AHL team in fact it pisses them off big time..................

"ZekeA":

Right, but like I said, I'm not trying to exactly predict the future, but rather to come up with something that is plausible given current and expected trends. It's a fun thought exercise for me.

And yes, I do understand that hockey fans, particularly the serious ones, are not thrilled about losing their local teams, whatever the league may be. That's why I tried to replace as many vacated AHL sites with ECHL teams as I could. It's not the same quality of play, of course, but at least it's hockey. That may be small consolation, but it does seem to be the trend for eastern AHL teams to be relocated nearer to far-ranging parent clubs.

 

[adsfan]

The OP is interesting to me.

As a Milwaukee Admirals fan of the AHL variety, I am not too worried about the NHL.

The new arena is a 50:50 proposition at the moment. The NBA wants it open for the fall of 2017. They have less than 30 months to get it built. There is no current plant for an ice plant to be included in the new arena.

The current Admirals are looking to move back across the street to what is now called the UWM Panthers Arena (formerly the Cellular Arena and MECCA).

 

[Nerdlinger]

The OP is interesting to me.

As a Milwaukee Admirals fan of the AHL variety, I am not too worried about the NHL.

The new arena is a 50:50 proposition at the moment. The NBA wants it open for the fall of 2017. They have less than 30 months to get it built. There is no current plant for an ice plant to be included in the new arena.

The current Admirals are looking to move back across the street to what is now called the UWM Panthers Arena (formerly the Cellular Arena and MECCA).

You mean you wouldn't want an NHL team in Milwaukee?

I'm not at all familiar with the construction of arenas, but if there's no ice plant in the original arena, is it easy to do renovations later on to add one in?

 

[CHRDANHUTCH]

You mean you wouldn't want an NHL team in Milwaukee?

I'm not at all familiar with the construction of arenas, but if there's no ice plant in the original arena, is it easy to do renovations later on to add one in?

the issue with Milwaukee is the contractual limit around existing franchises, in their case, it falls within the Blackhawks territory, something about a 50 mile distance.

 

[Theoriginalalex]

First thing I noticed was your NHL setup. All of the hockey commentators/insiders I've read/listened to have said the 2 expansion NHL teams and any relocated teams will be in Vegas, Seattle, Quebec, and another Toronto team.

There's no real chance of Hamilton, Milwaukee, Houston, or anyone besides those 4 from what I've heard.

Trying to predict the minor leagues...that's a crapshoot, hockey fans know.

 

[Nerdlinger]

the issue with Milwaukee is the contractual limit around existing franchises, in their case, it falls within the Blackhawks territory, something about a 50 mile distance.

I think pretty much anywhere you put a new or relocated team you're going to have to bribe whichever existing team(s) has/have already claimed that site as their territory.

Based on this map, here are the teams whose current territories would overlap those of potential new NHL sites:

Hamilton/Toronto: Maple Leafs, maybe Sabres
Houston: Stars, maybe Predators
Las Vegas: Kings, Ducks, Sharks, Coyotes (if they're still around), Avs
Milwaukee: Blackhawks, Wild, maybe Red Wings and Blues
Quebec: Canadiens, Senators, maybe Bruins
Seattle: Canucks, Sharks, Avs

First thing I noticed was your NHL setup. All of the hockey commentators/insiders I've read/listened to have said the 2 expansion NHL teams and any relocated teams will be in Vegas, Seattle, Quebec, and another Toronto team.

There's no real chance of Hamilton, Milwaukee, Houston, or anyone besides those 4 from what I've heard.

Trying to predict the minor leagues...that's a crapshoot, hockey fans know.

I can do an altered scenario with Las Vegas and a second Toronto instead of Hamilton and Milwaukee, but it will be a while before I can put that together. What might the second Toronto team be named? I wouldn't think it'd be the Marlies.

And right, I have no expectations that my scenario will come true in every detail. Just trying to design something plausible.

 

[Sports Enthusiast]

Milwaukee isn't a 3 city sport. There's no way they'd do hockey and NBA well. But that radius stuff is ********. Its not like a slew of people are coming from Milwaukee nightly for Hawks games or to the point that it'd cripple the Hawks.

 

[Sports Enthusiast]

Your dumping teams to other leagues without even really knowing who is profitable and how.
For instance the Binghamton situation
per the Rochester newspaper

http://www.democratandchronicle.com...y-binghamton-financial-open-records/26929397/

The Binghamton Senators pay $2,000 in rent for each game, plus 12.5 cents per ticket sold if the hockey club earns more than $25,000 in net income; 25 cents per ticket if club income tops $50,000. There also is a per-game cap on comp tickets at 17.5 percent of all tickets sold, or 550 tickets, whichever is greater. Anything beyond that is treated as a ticket sold. Broome County furnishes arena staff, including ticket takers, ushers, security, at least one police officer, etc. The hockey club has exclusive rights to sell advertising for its events. The county has control over concessions, but assigns all revenue to the club. Those are the key points.


This team in this crap city in this crap arena that I call home is probably more profitable than AHL teams in much bigger markets/arena's.
There is a lot more to the business of hockey than butt's in the seats and size of market/arena.

SMG is a **** company to be honest. I think that's well known. I don't think you can get records in most arenas. I know here in Elmira when we went through the foreclosure stuff they couldn't get real records on the place which was a bit surprising considering taxpayer funds were a part in the building of the arena. Granted the owner of the arena was shady and the taxpayers didn't own the arena. I agree that attendance isnt the be all end all for teams or arenas. Without it being the same it seems like Elmira and Binghamton have a similar setup now. All of the revenue here goes into the team and if they have losses the expenses get covered. A key component in the minor leagues that is often missed is owning your own arena. It gives you control and you get all the sales. Its how small arena teams can survive. Even if capacity isn't ideal.

 

[Theoriginalalex]

What might the second Toronto team be named? I wouldn't think it'd be the Marlies.

It definitely would not be the Marlies. They are owned by the Leafs. A 2nd NHL team would have completely different ownershp and identity.

 

[PCSPounder]

Reno has been on the minor league map for years, but they don't have a building. They played early in the days of the old WCHL in a convention center that was not really made for hockey. They've been on a list of dark expansion teams in the ECHL for years. I can't remember if they ever gave up on the franchise. So long story short, very unlikely, though it's a city that I think could handle minor league hockey in some capacity.

Haven't given up. Someone's been paying dues to the ECHL all this time and keeps doing it. The only reason I can figure is that there's still a group looking at Winter Olympics to Reno, and wants to keep that foot in the door if/when an arena is arranged. It's a somewhat wild guess.

Sacramento is similar. Always seemed like a good potential market, but never got their act together and got an arena situation that was possible for minor league hockey. I can't remember for sure, but I think the NBA team blocked it or their building couldn't produce ice. Something like that. I'm sure someone on the boards will recall the specifics. Either way, they've been talked about since the old WCHL days, and it's never happened. Stockton's very close to Sacramento (40-50 miles) - not sure if a Sacramento franchise would hurt Stockton or not.

Sleep Train could produce ice, and had a full rink setup. But the arena is quite aligned for basketball, not hockey. The corner stands get in the way of viewing angles for the rink from the center, and good luck seeing the near goal from the upper deck. The way it worked in Sacramento made it worse than Talking Stick/America West in Phoenix. Not even conducive to a good minor league crowd IMO.