North American Pro Hockey of the Near Future

[Nerdlinger]

First off, please note that I have no personal investment in any hockey team or league or even in the sport itself. My main interests are in (1) organizing teams into geographic conferences and divisions and (2) trying to realistically and objectively anticipate league and franchise changes, regardless of the sport. When predicting, I make no claim that "this is how things will be." I'm just going for plausibility. So do not take it personally if your team relocates or anything like that in the scenario(s) I present.

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In this scenario, Las Vegas for whatever reason doesn't pan out as an NHL site, and Seattle and Quebec receive expansion teams instead. Also for whatever reason, the Coyotes and Panthers end up relocating to Hamilton and Milwaukee, respectively. I dare not go into detail as to how these changes happened, but ultimately it came down to money, as it always does.

With the NHL at 32 teams, the AHL and ECHL expand to 32 in kind. Following the recent trend, additional AHL franchises are purchased and relocated to sites closer to their new owners. Most vacated AHL sites receive ECHL franchises as compensation. A cascades of affiliation changes occur in concert with this, leading to a one-to-one correspondence between NHL parent, AHL affiliate, and ECHL affiliate by 2025.

So, without further ado, I present below how the three leagues could look as of 2025.

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Key:
() = NHL affiliate in parentheses
* = NHL parent team owns minor league franchise

All relocation notes [in brackets] are relative to the expected 2015-16 league composition.

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NATIONAL HOCKEY LEAGUE

EASTERN CONFERENCE

Atlantic Division
Boston Bruins
Buffalo Sabres
Detroit Red Wings
Montreal Canadiens
Ottawa Senators
Quebec Nordiques [expansion]
Tampa Bay Lightning
Toronto Maple Leafs

Metropolitan Division
Carolina Hurricanes
Columbus Blue Jackets
New Jersey Devils
New York Islanders
New York Rangers
Philadelphia Flyers
Pittsburgh Penguins
Washington Capitals

WESTERN CONFERENCE

Central Division
Chicago Blackhawks
Dallas Stars
Hamilton Bulldogs [was Arizona]
Milwaukee Admirals [was Florida]
Minnesota Wild
Nashville Predators
St. Louis Blues
Winnipeg Jets

Pacific Division
Anaheim Ducks
Calgary Flames
Colorado Avalanche
Edmonton Oilers
Los Angeles Kings
San Jose Sharks
Seattle Totems [expansion]
Vancouver Canucks

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AMERICAN HOCKEY LEAGUE

EASTERN CONFERENCE

Northeast Division
Binghamton Senators (OTT)
Laval Canadiens (MTL*) [was St. John's]
Providence Bruins (BOS)
Rochester Americans (BUF*)
Springfield Falcons (NJD*) [was Albany]
Syracuse Crunch (HAM)
Toronto Marlies (TOR*)
Trois-Rivieres Draveurs (QUE) [expansion]

Atlantic Division
Atlanta Gladiators (NSH*) [was Portland]
Bridgeport Sound Tigers (NYI*)
Charlotte Checkers (CAR)
Hartford Wolf Pack (NYR*)
Hershey Bears (WSH)
Lake Erie Monsters (CBJ)
Lehigh Valley Phantoms (PHI)
Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins (PIT*)

WESTERN CONFERENCE

Central Division
Chicago Wolves (CHI*)
Grand Rapids Griffins (DET)
Green Bay Gamblers (MIL*) [was Milwaukee]
Iowa Wild (MIN*)
Peoria Rivermen (STL*) [was Rockford]
San Antonio Rampage (TBL)
Texas Stars (DAL*)
Thunder Bay Bombers (WPG*) [was Manitoba]

Pacific Division
Bakersfield Condors (EDM*)
Fresno Firebirds (VAN*) [was Utica]
Las Vegas Wranglers (COL*) [was Springfield]
Oakland Seals (SJS*) [was San Jose]
Ontario Reign (LAK*)
Reno Renegades (SEA) [expansion]
San Diego Gulls (ANA*)
Stockton Heat (CGY*)

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"ECHL"

EASTERN CONFERENCE

Northeast Division
Manchester Monarchs (NYI*) [was Idaho]
Portland Pirates (NJD) [expansion]
St. John's IceCaps (QUE) [expansion]
Worcester Bruins (BOS*) [was Brampton]

Empire Division
Adirondack Wildcats (MTL*) [was Rapid City]
Albany Senators (OTT) [expansion]
Elmira Jackals (BUF)
Utica Blizzards (TOR*) [was Gwinnett]

Atlantic Division
Norfolk Admirals (CAR*) [was Tulsa]
Reading Royals (PHI)
Toledo Walleye (DET)
Wheeling Nailers (PIT)

Southeast Division
Florida Everblades (TBL)
Greenville Road Warriors (NYR)
Orlando Solar Bears (NSH)
South Carolina Stingrays (WSH)

WESTERN CONFERENCE

Midwest Division
Cincinnati Cyclones (CBJ)
Fort Wayne Komets (WPG)
Indy Fuel (SJS)
Kalamazoo Wings (HAM)

Central Division
Evansville IceMen (MIL)
Missouri Mavericks (STL)
Quad City Mallards (MIN)
Rockford IceHogs (CHI*) [was Alaska]

Southwest Division
Allen Americans (DAL)
Houston Aeros (LAK*) [was Manchester]
Tulsa Oilers (EDM*) [was Norfolk]
Wichita Thunder (VAN)

Mountain Division
Colorado Eagles (COL)
Idaho Steelheads (SEA) [expansion]
Rapid City Rush (CGY*) [was Adirondack]
Utah Grizzlies (ANA)

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Questions, comments, and constructive criticism as to the plausibility of the changes in this scenario are welcome and encouraged! I'm certainly willing to revise the scenario based on such feedback (and have already done so several times).

Click to read more...

 

[Canadienjet]

Not a chance the QMJHL comes here after the spectacular failure that was the Fog Devils.

do not be surprised if St.John's becomes the affiliate for Quebec if/when they get a team.

Robin Short our beat writer has been told that is the master plan so to speak.

 

[Nerdlinger]

Not a chance the QMJHL comes here after the spectacular failure that was the Fog Devils.

do not be surprised if St.John's becomes the affiliate for Quebec if/when they get a team.

Robin Short our beat writer has been told that is the master plan so to speak.

Interesting. I can modify the scenario to account for that. My guess was that St. John's and Alaska would be essentially forced out due to travel concerns from the other owners. Any idea which one of the AHL sites in my scenario might get bumped to make way for St. John's? Maybe I can drop Hartford or Bridgeport down to the ECHL. I originally had Springfield demoted until I learned that's where the AHL league offices are.

Is an AHL team in Atlanta plausible? If not, I could take them out.

Any other news is welcome. I've been tweaking this when new info (or rumors) have come out.

 

[Canadienjet]

Interesting. I can modify the scenario to account for that. My guess was that St. John's and Alaska would be essentially forced out due to travel concerns from the other owners. Any idea which one of the AHL sites in my scenario might get bumped to make way for St. John's? Maybe I can drop Hartford or Bridgeport down to the ECHL. I originally had Springfield demoted until I learned that's where the AHL league offices are.

Is an AHL team in Atlanta plausible? If not, I could take them out.

Any other news is welcome. I've been tweaking this when new info (or rumors) have come out.

All speculative so I wouldn't change anything. Don't be shocked if that's how it plays out.

Williams and co have deep pockets and are willing to make it work.Don't count them out.From what I can gather the Habs got a very sweet deal to be here.

Also the Thunder Bay arena is dead.So no AHL for them.

 

[Nerdlinger]

All speculative so I wouldn't change anything. Don't be shocked if that's how it plays out.

Williams and co have deep pockets and are willing to make it work.Don't count them out.From what I can gather the Habs got a very sweet deal to be here.

Also the Thunder Bay arena is dead.So no AHL for them.

Thunder Bay dead? Bummer. You think then that it'll be the Manitoba Moose for the foreseeable future? I had them move (and San Jose's affiliate too) partly because it's not ideal in terms of scheduling to have your affiliate play in the same arena.

 

[jason2020]

I think with in the next few years The sens will try and buy and move a team to Ottawa or area.

 

[Canadienjet]

Thunder Bay dead? Bummer. You think then that it'll be the Manitoba Moose for the foreseeable future? I had them move (and San Jose's affiliate too) partly because it's not ideal in terms of scheduling to have your affiliate play in the same arena.

No idea honestly(really don't care to be truthful).Can't imagine their stay in Winnipeg will be for more then three seasons.

 

[PCSPounder]

Las Vegas, much to the chagrin of a lot of northerners, is going to be announced for an NHL franchise in the next few months. This is fait accompli.

If Seattle really happens, it won't be Metros. Don't cling THAT MUCH to history (though Totems isn't out of the question).

 

[GindyDraws]

Also, with OHL Brampton, they had the Battalion. Didn't work out.

 

[GarbageGoal]

There will never be a nice neat perfect bow put on minor league hockey. It just won't happen. Politics and circumstance will always interfere.

 

[Nerdlinger]

I think with in the next few years The sens will try and buy and move a team to Ottawa or area.

Intriguing. Do you have any sources on this?

No idea honestly(really don't care to be truthful).Can't imagine their stay in Winnipeg will be for more then three seasons.

It is true that teams would generally prefer not to share a stadium with their affiliates? Proximity is a bonus, of course, but scheduling games is complicated.

Las Vegas, much to the chagrin of a lot of northerners, is going to be announced for an NHL franchise in the next few months. This is fait accompli.

Really? I know there's been talk about it, but I didn't actually think they'd stick another team in the desert. I recall reading an article in which names were proposed for a hypothetical Vegas NHL franchise. My favorite name was the "Las Vegas Pending Relocation to Canada."

If Seattle really happens, it won't be Metros. Don't cling THAT MUCH to history (though Totems isn't out of the question).

OK, not Metros. I can swap it for Totems. TBH, I really like the name Thunderbirds, but I wouldn't want to take it away from the WHL team.

Also, with OHL Brampton, they had the Battalion. Didn't work out.

The Beast's attendance is only marginally better, though. Second worst among the ECHL and CHL in 2013-14 (after the now defunct Denver Cutthroats) and not looking too good this season either. They're down at the bottom with Elmira and Wheeling.

There will never be a nice neat perfect bow put on minor league hockey. It just won't happen. Politics and circumstance will always interfere.

This does seem to be true. Does anyone at least think that in the near future there will be a one-to-one correspondence in affiliation between the NHL and ECHL, like how there already is for the AHL? (And does anyone think the ECHL will ever change its name?)

 

[MiamiHockey]

NATIONAL HOCKEY LEAGUE

EASTERN CONFERENCE

Northeast Division
Boston Bruins
Buffalo Sabres
Detroit Red Wings
Montreal Canadiens
Ottawa Senators
Quebec Nordiques
Toronto Maple Leafs
Washington Capitals

Atlantic Division
Carolina Hurricanes
Florida Panthers
New Jersey Devils
New York Islanders
New York Rangers
Philadelphia Flyers
Pittsburgh Penguins
Tampa Bay Lightning

WESTERN CONFERENCE

Central Division
Chicago Blackhawks
Colorado Avalanche
Columbus Blue Jackets
Dallas Stars
Minnesota Wild
Nashville Predators
St. Louis Blues
Winnipeg Jets

Pacific Division
Anaheim Ducks
Arizona Coyotes
Calgary Flames
Edmonton Oilers
Los Angeles Kings
San Jose Sharks
Seattle Metros
Vancouver Canucks

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Tampa Bay / Florida will stay in the same division as Bos / Tor / Mtl / Buff - not because it seems to make geographic sense, but because those markets rely on the vacationers from up north for a large chunk of their ticket sales. As on example, if you look at the Panthers / Lightning schedule, they are always at home over Christmas, during which time they host the Habs / Leafs / Bruins. Those are the only games the Panthers come close to filling the arena.

 

[Nerdlinger]

Tampa Bay / Florida will stay in the same division as Bos / Tor / Mtl / Buff - not because it seems to make geographic sense, but because those markets rely on the vacationers from up north for a large chunk of their ticket sales. As on example, if you look at the Panthers / Lightning schedule, they are always at home over Christmas, during which time they host the Habs / Leafs / Bruins. Those are the only games the Panthers come close to filling the arena.

Wouldn't the Panthers and Lightning do just as well with vacationers from the Mid-Atlantic states? Over the holidays, they may be filling seats not just because of the origin of the snowbirds, but also because a lot of people are off work.

 

[MiamiHockey]

Wouldn't the Panthers and Lightning do just as well with vacationers from the Mid-Atlantic states? Over the holidays, they may be filling seats not just because of the origin of the snowbirds, but also because a lot of people are off work.

They would do well, but not AS well. Together, the Leafs / Habs / Bruins / Red Wings / Sabres / Sens have larger and more loyal fan bases than the Flyers / Pens / Blue Jackets / Caps / Hurricanes / Rangers / Devils / Isles. In fact, four of those Mid-Atlantic teams (Devils, Isles, Hurricanes, Blue Jackets) have a tough time selling out in their own arena. Panthers / Lightning much better off with visits from the Atlantic Division teams.

 

[Nerdlinger]

They would do well, but not AS well. Together, the Leafs / Habs / Bruins / Red Wings / Sabres / Sens have larger and more loyal fan bases than the Flyers / Pens / Blue Jackets / Caps / Hurricanes / Rangers / Devils / Isles. In fact, four of those Mid-Atlantic teams (Devils, Isles, Hurricanes, Blue Jackets) have a tough time selling out in their own arena. Panthers / Lightning much better off with visits from the Atlantic Division teams.

OK. I suppose then that if Quebec were to be granted an expansion team, then the Florida teams would stay with the northeast teams in the Atlantic Division and Detroit would get booted to the Metropolitan. Does this seem likely?

 

[trouty]

St.John's wont be out of pro hockey, the ECHL was about to move in here just before the Icecaps arrived. Worse case St.John's will end up in ECHL at some point, but who knows, for now were in ahl

 

[MiamiHockey]

OK. I suppose then that if Quebec were to be granted an expansion team, then the Florida teams would stay with the northeast teams in the Atlantic Division and Detroit would get booted to the Metropolitan. Does this seem likely?

I think Detroit has a strong preference to be in the same division as its historic rivals Toronto / Montreal / Boston.

 

[Nerdlinger]

I think Detroit has a strong preference to be in the same division as its historic rivals Toronto / Montreal / Boston.

So maybe Buffalo gets booted to the Metropolitan to make room for Quebec?

 

[Rumblick]

They would do well, but not AS well. Together, the Leafs / Habs / Bruins / Red Wings / Sabres / Sens have larger and more loyal fan bases than the Flyers / Pens / Blue Jackets / Caps / Hurricanes / Rangers / Devils / Isles. In fact, four of those Mid-Atlantic teams (Devils, Isles, Hurricanes, Blue Jackets) have a tough time selling out in their own arena. Panthers / Lightning much better off with visits from the Atlantic Division teams.

I'll call you on the Rangers and Flyers. There isn't a road game these teams play that isn't littered with their jerseys. The only teams I've seen with a bigger influence in Florida are the Blackhawks (not a feasible conference opponent, I know - just using them for comparison. Watching the Hawks - Panthers in February, I thought they were in Chicago. ) The Rangers are in Florida around New Years every season - must be a good reason for that.

 

[Nerdlinger]

[superseded by revised scenario in OP]

 

[My Cozen Dylan]

Orlando and Florida in the A?

 

[Nerdlinger]

Orlando and Florida in the A?

Yes, I was thinking the Panthers and Lightning would want to get in on the trend of bringing their AHL affiliates closer to home.

 

[jason2020]

Yes, I was thinking the Panthers and Lightning would want to get in on the trend of bringing their AHL affiliates closer to home.

I really can't see Florida wanting to put a Ahl team in or near Miami maybe Orland0.

 

[Nerdlinger]

I really can't see Florida wanting to put a Ahl team in or near Miami maybe Orland0.

Because they'd worry about their affiliate drawing fans away? Fair point, but Estero isn't all that close to Miami. It's more like midway between Tampa and Miami.

 

[My Cozen Dylan]

I really can't see Florida wanting to put a Ahl team in or near Miami maybe Orland0.

They are different markets. Estero (Everblades) is over an hour from Sunrise (Panthers).