North American Pro Hockey of the Near Future

[wildcat48]

Your dumping teams to other leagues without even really knowing who is profitable and how.
For instance the Binghamton situation
per the Rochester newspaper

http://www.democratandchronicle.com...y-binghamton-financial-open-records/26929397/

The Binghamton Senators pay $2,000 in rent for each game, plus 12.5 cents per ticket sold if the hockey club earns more than $25,000 in net income; 25 cents per ticket if club income tops $50,000. There also is a per-game cap on comp tickets at 17.5 percent of all tickets sold, or 550 tickets, whichever is greater. Anything beyond that is treated as a ticket sold. Broome County furnishes arena staff, including ticket takers, ushers, security, at least one police officer, etc. The hockey club has exclusive rights to sell advertising for its events. The county has control over concessions, but assigns all revenue to the club. Those are the key points.


This team in this crap city in this crap arena that I call home is probably more profitable than AHL teams in much bigger markets/arena's.
There is a lot more to the business of hockey than butt's in the seats and size of market/arena.

Portland is very much the same way

Rent is $1000 per game plus they pay set formula staff in excess of what the Arena would normally have on duty which amounts to about $1500 per game. The team also collects 100% of all on-ice advertising, 50% of all above ice advertising plus they collect 57.5% on all food and beverage. The team reduced handing out comp tickets this season which increased ticket revenue. As I said earlier, the team might be last in a "reported" attendance, but they were very happy with the how the season went at the gate and overall revenues.

 

[Nerdlinger]

Thought I'd give this a bump. I revamped the 2025 scenario in the OP to make it (hopefully) more realistic. For example, all the Pacific AHL teams are located in either California or Nevada to eliminate the need for air travel for games within that division. I also was conservative and "demoted" fewer AHL teams to the ECHL than I originally had envisioned. And I was able to split the ECHL up into 8 fairly natural divisions of 4, though I retained the current 4-division structure of the AHL.

As a reminder, I'm of course not attempting to predict exactly what will happen by 2025 (an impossible endeavor). Mainly I'm going for a plausible scenario. So if you have a few minutes, please take a look over the OP and let me know what you think. Constructive criticism, comments, and questions are welcome.

 

[Deleted member 250185]

I can't picture where all those AHL/ECHL cities are in my head so I can't comment on those alignments. The one thing I would change in your NHL alignment would be to swap Hamilton with Detroit. Hamilton is literally right in between Toronto and Buffalo so it would be silly not to have those three in the same division. With more games within each division I don't think Detroit would make too much of a fuss over going back to the Central(in fact I remember seeing a thread on this recently.)

 

[Nerdlinger]

I can't picture where all those AHL/ECHL cities are in my head so I can't comment on those alignments. The one thing I would change in your NHL alignment would be to swap Hamilton with Detroit. Hamilton is literally right in between Toronto and Buffalo so it would be silly not to have those three in the same division. With more games within each division I don't think Detroit would make too much of a fuss over going back to the Central(in fact I remember seeing a thread on this recently.)

I don't have any maps of the alignments in my scenario (although I'm now thinking of making some), but here are the maps for the AHL and ECHL as of 2015-16, a la Wikipedia:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015–16_AHL_season
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015–16_ECHL_season

Ideally, Hamilton would be in the Northeast, but given Detroit's preference for remaining in the Eastern Conference, I don't see either an expansion or relocated team in Hamilton having enough leverage to force the Red Wings to the West.

 

[Deleted member 250185]

Here's the thread I mentioned, the OP explains the Detroit situation pretty well.

http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showthread.php?t=1897893&highlight=detroit+central+division

 

[Nerdlinger]

Here's the thread I mentioned, the OP explains the Detroit situation pretty well.

http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showthread.php?t=1897893&highlight=detroit+central+division

Yes, I've been loosely following that thread. There seems to be very little in the way of consensus regarding such a realignment. I doubt that the league will move from a 2-conference setup to a 4-conference setup any time soon. If indeed they did make such a radical change, then there would certainly be less resistance from Detroit to being part of a Central Conference than the Central Division of the Western Conference.

As it stands, though, Detroit seems to have much more to gain by remaining in the East and in a division with the northeastern teams. Same time zone, less travel distance, and fewer opponents who are weak draws. If a hypothetical Hamilton team were to sufficiently compensate the Red Wings, though, I imagine some agreement could be worked out, but that might be quite a hefty payout.

 

[Sports Enthusiast]

Thought I'd give this a bump. I revamped the 2025 scenario in the OP to make it (hopefully) more realistic. For example, all the Pacific AHL teams are located in either California or Nevada to eliminate the need for air travel for games within that division. I also was conservative and "demoted" fewer AHL teams to the ECHL than I originally had envisioned. And I was able to split the ECHL up into 8 fairly natural divisions of 4, though I retained the current 4-division structure of the AHL.

As a reminder, I'm of course not attempting to predict exactly what will happen by 2025 (an impossible endeavor). Mainly I'm going for a plausible scenario. So if you have a few minutes, please take a look over the OP and let me know what you think. Constructive criticism, comments, and questions are welcome.

I can tell you the long time future of minor league hockey. Eventually I think the ECHL gets weeded out and so do certain AHL teams. Both leagues have a lot of teams hanging on by the skin of their teeth. Eventually you will see the 30 or whatever it is(god knows if the dumb NHL will really expand) best markets survive and make up affiliated minor league hockey. Every team will probably be NHL owned.

 

[Jackets Woodchuck]

I can tell you the long time future of minor league hockey. Eventually I think the ECHL gets weeded out and so do certain AHL teams. Both leagues have a lot of teams hanging on by the skin of their teeth. Eventually you will see the 30 or whatever it is(god knows if the dumb NHL will really expand) best markets survive and make up affiliated minor league hockey. Every team will probably be NHL owned.

I disagree with this on a few points:

- I think there will be some kind of ECHL to put fringe players (especially goalies) and AHL reinforcements in. It may be 15 two-team co-ops or 10 three-team co-ops (in which case the league would probably adopt the NCAA rule allowing three goalies to dress), but there'll be some kind of ECHL.

- I think we'll see a significant (vast?) majority of AHL teams owned by NHL teams, but I think there may be a few NHL teams who would rather run the hockey ops, collect the affiliation fee, and leave the dirty work of ticket sales, renting the arena, paying business (non-hockey) staff to someone else. I think they'll be allowed to continue with such an arrangement if they can find an independently owned AHL team to affiliate with.

- I think the SPHL will manage to survive (survive being the key word, we're talking subsistence farming here) as the lone independent league.

Also, where would you see the Jackets putting their affiliate if they have to wholly own it? I'm thinking Cincy (If the Cavs can't own it, there's no Cleveland team).

 

[Sports Enthusiast]

I disagree with this on a few points:

- I think there will be some kind of ECHL to put fringe players (especially goalies) and AHL reinforcements in. It may be 15 two-team co-ops or 10 three-team co-ops (in which case the league would probably adopt the NCAA rule allowing three goalies to dress), but there'll be some kind of ECHL.

- I think we'll see a significant (vast?) majority of AHL teams owned by NHL teams, but I think there may be a few NHL teams who would rather run the hockey ops, collect the affiliation fee, and leave the dirty work of ticket sales, renting the arena, paying business (non-hockey) staff to someone else. I think they'll be allowed to continue with such an arrangement if they can find an independently owned AHL team to affiliate with.

- I think the SPHL will manage to survive (survive being the key word, we're talking subsistence farming here) as the lone independent league.

Also, where would you see the Jackets putting their affiliate if they have to wholly own it? I'm thinking Cincy (If the Cavs can't own it, there's no Cleveland team).

If the ECHL does exists it won't be the affiliated thing it is now, then.

As for the owning AHL teams....most are money losers. Would be nothing more than a simple tax write off. I think that's why owning them has gotten somewhat popular for NHL teams.

Maybe the ECHL and SPHL can merge.

 

[Nerdlinger]

I would agree with the claim that the ECHL (or some form of second-tier pro minor league) will persist. This may involve the absorption of other leagues such as the SPHL, just like the ECHL has in the past (CHL, WCHL, etc.). But there should be enough teams to fill out a full tier.

 

[Nerdlinger]

Here's a fun, more radical, and perhaps less plausible vision of the near future. As before, the NHL expands to 32 and the AHL follows suit. Here though, several additional existing NHL teams relocate to greener pastures. Most of the old teams resurface in the AHL. Meanwhile, the trend of western NHL teams relocating their eastern AHL affiliates west continues, leading to the demotion of some AHL sites to the next tier down. A flurry of minor league franchise purchasing, relocation, and affiliation changes takes place over the next decade. Eventually a one-to-one correspondence is established between NHL parent teams and their minor league affiliates on both pro tiers. The ECHL absorbs the strongest SPHL franchises to reach 32 teams itself (and finally changes its name).

So here's how things shake out in this radical scenario by 2025.

~~~~~~

Key:
() = NHL affiliate in parentheses
* = NHL parent team owns minor league franchise

All relocation notes [in brackets] are relative to the expected 2015-16 league composition.

~~~~~~

NATIONAL HOCKEY LEAGUE

EASTERN CONFERENCE

Northeast Division
Boston Bruins
Buffalo Sabres
Detroit Red Wings
Hamilton Bulldogs [was Florida]
Montreal Canadiens
Ottawa Senators
Quebec Nordiques [expansion]
Toronto Maple Leafs

Atlantic Division
Cleveland Barons [was Columbus]
New Jersey Devils
New York Islanders
New York Rangers
Philadelphia Flyers
Pittsburgh Penguins
Tampa Bay Lightning
Washington Capitals

WESTERN CONFERENCE

Central Division
Chicago Blackhawks
Colorado Avalanche
Dallas Stars
Kansas City Scouts [was Nashville]
Milwaukee Admirals [was Carolina]
Minnesota Wild
St. Louis Blues
Winnipeg Jets

Pacific Division
Calgary Flames
Edmonton Oilers
Los Angeles Kings
Portland Cascades [was Arizona]
San Jose Sharks
Seattle Thunderbirds [expansion]
Utah Grizzlies [was Anaheim]
Vancouver Canucks

~~~~~~

AMERICAN HOCKEY LEAGUE

EASTERN CONFERENCE

Northeast Division
Bridgeport Sound Tigers (NYI*)
Hartford Wolf Pack (NYR*)
Laval Canadiens (MTL*) [was St. John's]
Providence Bruins (BOS)
Rochester Americans (BUF*)
Syracuse Crunch (HAM)
Toronto Marlies (TOR*)
Trois-Rivieres Draveurs (QUE) [expansion]

Atlantic Division
Atlanta Gladiators (NJD*) [was Albany]
Carolina Hurricanes (MIL*) [was Milwaukee]
Charlotte Checkers (WSH)
Columbus Blue Jackets (CLE*) [was Lake Erie]
Hershey Bears (OTT)
Lehigh Valley Phantoms (PHI)
Orlando Solar Bears (TBL*) [was Portland]
Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins (PIT*)

WESTERN CONFERENCE

Central Division
Chicago Wolves (CHI*)
Colorado Eagles (COL*) [was Springfield]
Grand Rapids Griffins (DET)
Iowa Wild (MIN*)
Nashville Predators (STL*) [was Rockford]
San Antonio Rampage (KCS)
Texas Stars (DAL*)
Thunder Bay Bombers (WPG*) [was Manitoba]

Pacific Division
Anaheim Ducks (UTA*) [was San Diego]
Bakersfield Condors (EDM*)
Fresno Firebirds (SJS*) [was San Jose]
Las Vegas Wranglers (SEA) [expansion]
Ontario Reign (LAK*)
Reno Renegades (VAN*) [was Utica]
San Diego Gulls (POR*) [was Binghamton]
Stockton Heat (CGY*)

~~~~~~

UNITED HOCKEY LEAGUE

EASTERN CONFERENCE

Northeast Division
Manchester Monarchs (NYI*) [was Utah]
Reading Royals (PHI)
Springfield Falcons (QUE*) [was Kalamazoo]
Worcester Bruins (BOS*) [was Brampton]

Empire Division
Adirondack Wildcats (MTL*) [was Rapid City]
Albany Senators (OTT*) [was Gwinnett]
Binghamton Sabres (BUF*) [was Elmira]
Utica Blizzards (TOR*) [was Orlando]

Atlantic Division
Cincinnati Cyclones (CLE)
Norfolk Admirals (MIL*) [was Tulsa]
Toledo Walleye (DET)
Wheeling Nailers (PIT)

Southeast Division
Florida Everblades (TBL)
Greenville Road Warriors (NYR)
Pensacola Ice Flyers (POR) [expansion]
South Carolina Stingrays (NJD)

WESTERN CONFERENCE

Midwest Division
Fort Wayne Komets (VAN)
Peoria Rivermen (STL) [expansion]
Quad City Mallards (MIN)
Rockford IceHogs (CHI*) [was Alaska]

Central Division
Evansville IceMen (WPG)
Huntsville Havoc (HAM) [expansion]
Indy Fuel (SJS)
Knoxville IceBears (WSH) [expansion]

Southwest Division
Allen Americans (DAL)
Houston Aeros (LAK*) [was Manchester]
Oklahoma City Barons (COL*) [was Colorado]
Tulsa Oilers (EDM*) [was Norfolk]

Frontier Division
Idaho Steelheads (UTA)
Missouri Mavericks (KCS)
Rapid City Rush (CGY*) [was Adirondack]
Wichita Thunder (SEA)

~~~~~~

Questions, comments, and constructive criticism are welcome!

 

[Deleted member 250185]

Well that certainly is a more radical alignment, although at least you came to your senses about Hamilton

I think the Nashville market is growing too much for relocation to ever happen. They did essentially absorb the Atlanta market after the Thrashers left(Nashville's AHL team would probably do well there.) I would say move the Devils before moving the Preds. Even with their past success that market is being choked off by the Rangers. I wonder if far off into the future we might even see the Rags push the Islanders out.

One last thing, you keep ignoring my beloved city of Abbotsford, think they ever get a professional franchise again? I know a year ago the Canucks' owner wanted to bring their AHL team here but he also wanted to buy the arena as well so it didn't happen. Personally I just hope we can get a WHL team and be done with it, I would hate having to cheer for anything Vancouver affiliated.

 

[Nerdlinger]

Well that certainly is a more radical alignment, although at least you came to your senses about Hamilton

I think the Nashville market is growing too much for relocation to ever happen. They did essentially absorb the Atlanta market after the Thrashers left(Nashville's AHL team would probably do well there.) I would say move the Devils before moving the Preds. Even with their past success that market is being choked off by the Rangers. I wonder if far off into the future we might even see the Rags push the Islanders out.

One last thing, you keep ignoring my beloved city of Abbotsford, think they ever get a professional franchise again? I know a year ago the Canucks' owner wanted to bring their AHL team here but he also wanted to buy the arena as well so it didn't happen. Personally I just hope we can get a WHL team and be done with it, I would hate having to cheer for anything Vancouver affiliated.

I do agree that if it came down to it, Hamilton should be in the Eastern Conference over Detroit simply based on geography, but that wouldn't happen in reality. In this scenario, there was room for both.

It's probably a tossup between who moves first (if either) between the Devils and the Predators. Here I picked the Predators, but it could just as easily have been the Devils.

I tried to keep the AHL Pacific Division compact, with teams only in California and Nevada. A lone team in Abbotsford might do better in the ECHL/UHL, where air travel is for some reason more affordable. But even then, Abbotsford would be even more isolated than Idaho, so I don't think it'd work. They would do better to get a WHL team. Perhaps one of the current WHL teams in either Seattle or Portland would move to Abbotsford in this scenario.

BTW, if Abbotsford ever does get an AHL team back, I think it's almost certain to be a Canucks affiliate. The Heat suffered from being a prominent Flames affiliate in Canucks territory.

 

[Captain Crash]

One interesting puzzle piece in the long run will be what happens to the OHL's Erie Otters. They are currently up for sale in a bankruptcy hearing. While I think they will likely stay put, especially now that another franchise beat them to Hamilton, there are certainly parties that would want to take them back north. That would leave a great, recently renovated arena empty in a small market that has shown it will respond to a good hockey team.

If the OHL allows their relocation, I would expect the USHL to come knocking first. But then again, the league is recently on record that though they expect to expand in the next few years, they won't go outside of their current footprint. The eastern edge of that footprint is Youngstown where the USHL has really failed to capture the market.

Now, this is perhaps a bit reaching, but I wouldn't be surprised if Pittsburgh would become interested in a vacant EIA. Sure, WBS has been a great, relatively close market for their AHL thus far. But attendances have been declining bit by bit. Moreover, they would be able to have their top prospects less than two hours away rather than 5-6. Pittsburgh already has inroads into the Erie market as many sports fans there align with the black and gold teams; go to any Otters game and you're sure to see a few Penguins jerseys. They'd still be sitting nicely in the eastern footprint as well (though I imagine they'd schedule a few tilts with nearby Cleveland). Attendance would hardly be the tops, but it would likely be sustainable, and the losses would probably be acceptable for a franchise that would have both of its affiliates in a 2 hour radius.

If Pittsburgh pulled the trigger on this, there'd be a potential domino effect. Other eastern teams would probably jump at the opening in WBS. The Islanders, Rangers, and Devils would be the most likely candidates there.

All that said, I think the OHL will work hard to keep a presence in Pennsylvania, so Erie's availability isn't all that likely.

 

[Nerdlinger]

One interesting puzzle piece in the long run will be what happens to the OHL's Erie Otters. They are currently up for sale in a bankruptcy hearing. While I think they will likely stay put, especially now that another franchise beat them to Hamilton, there are certainly parties that would want to take them back north. That would leave a great, recently renovated arena empty in a small market that has shown it will respond to a good hockey team.

If the OHL allows their relocation, I would expect the USHL to come knocking first. But then again, the league is recently on record that though they expect to expand in the next few years, they won't go outside of their current footprint. The eastern edge of that footprint is Youngstown where the USHL has really failed to capture the market.

Now, this is perhaps a bit reaching, but I wouldn't be surprised if Pittsburgh would become interested in a vacant EIA. Sure, WBS has been a great, relatively close market for their AHL thus far. But attendances have been declining bit by bit. Moreover, they would be able to have their top prospects less than two hours away rather than 5-6. Pittsburgh already has inroads into the Erie market as many sports fans there align with the black and gold teams; go to any Otters game and you're sure to see a few Penguins jerseys. They'd still be sitting nicely in the eastern footprint as well (though I imagine they'd schedule a few tilts with nearby Cleveland). Attendance would hardly be the tops, but it would likely be sustainable, and the losses would probably be acceptable for a franchise that would have both of its affiliates in a 2 hour radius.

If Pittsburgh pulled the trigger on this, there'd be a potential domino effect. Other eastern teams would probably jump at the opening in WBS. The Islanders, Rangers, and Devils would be the most likely candidates there.

All that said, I think the OHL will work hard to keep a presence in Pennsylvania, so Erie's availability isn't all that likely.

Maybe the Penguins would move their AHL affiliate to Erie and then purchase an ECHL franchise (Wheeling, anyone?) and move them to WBS.

 

[Sports Enthusiast]

If the somehow Wheeling Nailers could make your United Hockey League I think Elmira could too. They might be slightly better off than Wheeling at the moment but neither are in a good place.

But I do think you'll see AA unaffiliated hockey make a comeback and that's good for the fans because the goal would be about winning.

 

[Nerdlinger]

If the somehow Wheeling Nailers could make your United Hockey League I think Elmira could too. They might be slightly better off than Wheeling at the moment but neither are in a good place.

But I do think you'll see AA unaffiliated hockey make a comeback and that's good for the fans because the goal would be about winning.

I originally did drop the Nailers but realized there were no other UHL teams nearby Pittsburgh. I figure that the Penguins would provide financial support to Wheeling to keep it going. Then again, they might pull an Erie-WBS switcharoo as mentioned earlier.

 

[Sports Enthusiast]

The point of this UHL to me would be to be a league full of teams that aren't involved with developing and all so the NHL teams like Pitt wouldn't care if Wheeling was there or not.

 

[Nerdlinger]

The point of this UHL to me would be to be a league full of teams that aren't involved with developing and all so the NHL teams like Pitt wouldn't care if Wheeling was there or not.

Why are almost all NHL teams investing in ECHL teams today if there is no desire for a second-tier affiliated minor league?

 

[Clinton Comets EHL]

Why are almost all NHL teams investing in ECHL teams today if there is no desire for a second-tier affiliated minor league?

Almost all NHL teams investing? How many NHL teams own an ECHL team?

Most NHL teams have a loose working agreement where they send, at most, 4-4 players.

 

[Nerdlinger]

Almost all NHL teams investing? How many NHL teams own an ECHL team?

Most NHL teams have a loose working agreement where they send, at most, 4-4 players.

Still an investment. It shows some perceived need on the part of the NHL teams. I'm not saying that the two tiers won't end up collapsing into one; just showing evidence which seems to point to the contrary.

 

[210]

Why are almost all NHL teams investing in ECHL teams today if there is no desire for a second-tier affiliated minor league?

Most NHL teams aren't investing in ECHL teams. The recent purchases were just the AHL west teams securing buildings/leases. I'll be a little shocked if they don't dump them first chance they get.

 

[mmazz22]

This thread is stupider by the day and I have no idea why I keep checking it out. Its kind of like staring at an accident scene. This is nonsense.

 

[Nerdlinger]

This thread is stupider by the day and I have no idea why I keep checking it out. Its kind of like staring at an accident scene. This is nonsense.

Thank you for sharing.

 

[Sports Enthusiast]

This thread is stupider by the day and I have no idea why I keep checking it out. Its kind of like staring at an accident scene. This is nonsense.

Dumber+