Andre Poodle Lussier
Registered User
IF expansion is Vegas and one other TBD, you're looking at the Panthers being a relocation target. Perhaps to Quebec, perhaps to Seattle (whoever does not get the expansion team).
North American Pro Hockey of the Near Future
- Thread starter Nerdlinger
- Start date
Sports Enthusiast
Not Here To Be Liked
Florida and Colorado make AHL sense. The rest no...unless Orlando magically thrives. Colorado sells out every game.
The ECHL and AHL should swap names....or should have before this West Coast thing. Hell NY and PA alone almost had a 1/3 of the league. ECHL was more all over the country. The joke has become "Every Coast Hockey League"
The ECHL and AHL should swap names....or should have before this West Coast thing. Hell NY and PA alone almost had a 1/3 of the league. ECHL was more all over the country. The joke has become "Every Coast Hockey League"
The Panthers are definitely one of the first teams I'd move, mainly due to their low attendance. However, on another board, someone pointed out to me that one reason the NHL is desperately clinging to failing large markets like Miami and Phoenix is to have more leverage when signing national TV contracts. They already surrendered Atlanta, so that makes it even less likely they'll give up Miami.
Orlando has a better weighted 5-year average home attendance than either the Everblades or the Eagles. Ninth best among all active AHL and ECHL teams. Only Fort Wayne and Ontario top them in the ECHL.
As for names, I don't have a problem with AHL, but the orphan initialism that is the ECHL needs replacement. Most anything would be better. United Hockey League, maybe?
In Orlando, you mean? Hockeydb.com has their average home attendance over the past 3 years as:
2012-13: 6,668
2013-14: 6,355
2014-15: 6,181 (69 games in)
So they appear to be in good standing. On the other hand, I have heard that some teams tend to inflate their counts beyond the actual number of attendees. Maybe Orlando is one of them? I genuinely wouldn't know.
Major4Boarding
Unfamiliar Moderator
Ah, OK, sorry. I could believe that number. Personally, I'd like to see Quebec get back an NHL team. They deserve one more so than Miami. If they don't get one through expansion, then I'd say the Panthers are definitely the likeliest relocation candidate. The NHL would lose a lot of face if they had to give up Miami, though.
I wonder then if Tampa Bay would want to stick around in the current Atlantic Division if they have no travel partner.
The Panthers and Lightning are not travel partners.
Anyway, TB loves the division they are in...all short 2-2.5 direct flights and despite the recent banning in certain sections of opposing teams jerseys...fans from the northeast flock to the games to see their respective teams for a winter, weekend or both.
i could see TB going to the Metropolitan (WSH would be the closest team at that point) and CBJ to the Atlantic (close to DET).
The east divisions would also be geographically contiguous at that point, if I am not mistaken.
I didn't mean travel partners literally. I just meant that the northeast teams which come to visit one of the Florida teams can save on travel by then playing the other Florida team before moving on or going back home. This in turn would result in FLA and TB both traveling north at the same time to play their away division games. Isn't that how the NHL tends to schedule things?
If Florida goes to Quebec, Carolina would be the closest team to TB. But yes, if then Columbus and TB trade places, then the divisions would be contiguous (and more pleasing to the eye on a map
).
Sports Enthusiast
Not Here To Be Liked
Not sure about Florida's capacity but I believe Colorado is only some 5,000 and change so Orlando naturally just has a bigger building. I believe they do play at the Amway. No idea what the capacity is for hockey.
The Eagles do consistently sell out, but even if they had a bigger stadium and greater average attendance than Orlando, the Solar Bears would have the 4th best 5-yr attendance among ECHL teams and 10th among AHL and ECHL teams combined. If you're using attendance as the criterion for worthiness of promotion, then Orlando would still easily deserve an AHL team.
CrazyEddie20
Hey RuZZia - Cut Your Losses and Go Home.
No, it's not. Not since the early 1980s. Saving money on travel isn't a consideration when the NHL makes its schedule anymore. The logistics of back-to-back games on the road is a consideration, but cost is not.
This seems counterintuitive to me. I thought one of the main reasons, if not the main reason, for the recent realignment was to reduce travel.
TB likes the Atlantic because of the visiting tourists it draws from Canada (the Gulf Coast is a very popular destination for Canadians) and CBJ likes the Metropolitan owing to its proximity to Pittsburgh.
wildcat48
Registered User
Almost every team inflates its attendance.... Some teams are starting to change that practice, but its a guessing game as who telling the truth and who isn't when you simply go by HockeyDB or league attendance figures.
Portland was a team that inflated its attendance. There is proof that previous ownership inflated its attendance by as much 3,000 fans for some games. Current ownership is changing that process, but its been a challenge to explain that to the fan base. The team is actually on pace to sell more tix this season than the final season before renovations although it won't look like that on the attendance sheet.
My Cozen Dylan
Registered User
I've gone to 10 or so games this year, went to 8 last year. I can tell you right now they don't inflate attendance.
My Cozen Dylan
Registered User
Woo Hockey
@WooHockeyNews
YES!!! I agree with a Worcester Bruins team 100%, good to see an "outsider" bringing this in.
Originally I was relying on attendance figures to determine which minor league hockey locations deserved to be in the AHL or the ECHL. But I think proximity to the parent team may actually become the primary determiner in upcoming franchise locations.
It makes sense for the Bruins to have an ECHL team in nearby Worcester. Plus I felt bad that your city isn't getting a replacement next season.
GarbageGoal
Courage
An ECHL team with Bruins affiliation in Worcester or Lowell would be great, but I'm guessing someone wants to see how Double A hockey plays in Manchester first. I'm skeptical it's gonna be embraced.
Woo Hockey
@WooHockeyNews
That's something we've been pushing for. It will probably be the 16-17 season at the earliest for a new team.
[MOD]
Please note that I have no personal investment in any hockey team or league or even in the sport itself. My main interests are in (1) organizing teams into geographic conferences and divisions and (2) trying to realistically and objectively anticipate league and franchise changes, regardless of the sport. When predicting, I make no claim that "this is how things will be." I'm just going for plausibility. So do not take it personally if your team relocates or anything like that in the scenario(s) I present.
~~~~~~
In this scenario, Las Vegas for whatever reason doesn't pan out as an NHL site, and Seattle and Quebec receive expansion teams instead. Also for whatever reason, the Coyotes and Panthers end up relocating to Hamilton and Milwaukee, respectively. I dare not go into detail as to how these changes happened, but ultimately it came down to money, as it always does.
With the NHL at 32 teams, the AHL and ECHL expand to 32 in kind. Following the recent trend, additional AHL franchises are purchased and relocated to sites closer to their new owners. Most vacated AHL sites receive ECHL franchises as compensation. A cascades of affiliation changes occur in concert with this, leading to a one-to-one correspondence between NHL parent, AHL affiliate, and ECHL affiliate by 2025.
So, without further ado, I present below how the three leagues could look as of 2025.
~~~~~~
Key:
() = NHL affiliate in parentheses
* = NHL parent team owns minor league franchise
All relocation notes [in brackets] are relative to the expected 2015-16 alignments.
~~~~~~
NATIONAL HOCKEY LEAGUE
EASTERN CONFERENCE
Atlantic Division
Boston Bruins
Buffalo Sabres
Detroit Red Wings
Montreal Canadiens
Ottawa Senators
Quebec Nordiques [expansion]
Tampa Bay Lightning
Toronto Maple Leafs
Metropolitan Division
Carolina Hurricanes
Columbus Blue Jackets
New Jersey Devils
New York Islanders
New York Rangers
Philadelphia Flyers
Pittsburgh Penguins
Washington Capitals
WESTERN CONFERENCE
Central Division
Chicago Blackhawks
Dallas Stars
Hamilton Bulldogs [was Arizona]
Milwaukee Admirals [was Florida]
Minnesota Wild
Nashville Predators
St. Louis Blues
Winnipeg Jets
Pacific Division
Anaheim Ducks
Calgary Flames
Colorado Avalanche
Edmonton Oilers
Los Angeles Kings
San Jose Sharks
Seattle Totems [expansion]
Vancouver Canucks
~~~~~~
AMERICAN HOCKEY LEAGUE
EASTERN CONFERENCE
Northeast Division
Laval Chiefs (MTL*) [was St. John's]
Providence Bruins (BOS)
Rochester Americans (BUF*)
Springfield Falcons (NJD*) [was Albany]
St. John's IceCaps (OTT*) [was Binghamton]
Syracuse Crunch (HAM)
Toronto Marlies (TOR)
Trois-Rivieres Ducs (QUE) [expansion]
Atlantic Division
Bridgeport Sound Tigers (NYR*) [was Hartford]
Charlotte Checkers (CAR)
Hershey Bears (WSH)
Lake Erie Monsters (CBJ)
Lehigh Valley Phantoms (PHI)
Nassau Islanders (NYI*) [in Uniondale; was Bridgeport]
Orlando Solar Bears (TBL*) [was Portland]
Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins (PIT*)
WESTERN CONFERENCE
Central Division
Chicago Wolves (CHI*)
Grand Rapids Griffins (DET)
Green Bay Gamblers (MIL*) [was Milwaukee]
Iowa Wild (MIN*)
Missouri Mavericks (STL*) [in Independence; was Rockford]
San Antonio Rampage (NSH)
Texas Stars (DAL*)
Thunder Bay Bombers (WPG*) [was Manitoba]
Pacific Division
Abbotsford Comets (VAN*) [was Utica]
Bakersfield Condors (EDM*)
Colorado Eagles (COL*) [in Loveland, was Springfield]
Idaho Steelheads (SEA) [expansion; in Boise]
Ontario Reign (LAK*)
San Diego Gulls (ANA*)
Stockton Sharks (SJS*) [was San Jose]
Utah Grizzlies (CGY*) [in West Valley City; was Stockton]
~~~~~~
"ECHL"
EASTERN CONFERENCE
Northeast Division
Adirondack Wildcats (MTL*) [in Glens Falls; was Rapid City]
Albany Devils (NJD) [expansion]
Binghamton Senators (OTT) [expansion]
Elmira Jackals (BUF)
Manchester Monarchs (NYI*) [was Tulsa]
Portland Pirates (QUE) [expansion]
Utica Bulldogs (HAM) [expansion]
Worcester Bruins (BOS*) [was Utah]
Atlantic Division
Florida Everblades (TBL*) [in Estero; was Orlando]
Greenville Road Warriors (SEA)
Gwinnett Gladiators (NSH)
Hartford Wolf Pack (NYR*) [was Idaho]
Norfolk Admirals (CAR*) [was Florida]
Reading Royals (PHI)
South Carolina Stingrays (WSH)
Wheeling Nailers (PIT)
WESTERN CONFERENCE
Midwest Division
Brampton Beast (TOR)
Cincinnati Cyclones (CBJ)
Evansville IceMen (ANA)
Fort Wayne Komets (WPG)
Indy Fuel (SJS)
Kalamazoo Wings (MIL)
Rockford IceHogs (CHI*) [was Alaska]
Toledo Walleye (DET)
Central Division
Allen Americans (DAL)
Houston Aeros (COL*) [was Colorado]
Oklahoma City Barons (LAK*) [was Manchester]
Peoria Rivermen (STL*) [was Missouri]
Quad City Mallards (MIN)
Rapid City Rush (CGY*) [was Adirondack]
Tulsa Oilers (EDM*) [was Norfolk]
Wichita Thunder (VAN)
~~~~~~
Questions, comments, and constructive criticism as to the plausibility of the changes in this scenario are welcome and encouraged! I'm certainly willing to revise the scenario based on such feedback.
Why would Stockton move to Utah? Stockton outdraws Utah in the ECHL and is near SFO for direct flights to Calgary. Moving away from Stockton increases AHL travel costs dramatically (Stockton is within driving distance of 4 other AHL teams, Utah is not within driving distance of any).
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Hmm, this is a fair point. If I keep Calgary's affiliate in Stockton, I need somewhere to place the Sharks' affiliate. Having to share an arena is not ideal from a scheduling standpoint. I could move the Barracuda to somewhere like Fresno, Sacramento, or Reno. Any suggestions?
I think Abbotsford and Loveland are close enough to Vancouver and Denver, respectively, to keep them viable as AHL locations. But if Utah isn't close enough to Calgary (or to any other AHL teams in this scenario) to justify a team there, would Idaho be similarly non-viable as a Seattle affiliate? I'm not sure Boise is within practical busing distance of Seattle. Would Portland be more suitable for a Seattle AHL affiliate? Maybe somewhere like Everett would be better because they're closer to Abbotsford, although Everett draws significantly worse than Portland in the WHL. What do you think?
EDIT: OK, did some fiddling around. AHL Stockton stays in place, AHL San Jose to Fresno, AHL expansion Portland for Seattle. ECHL regains Idaho and Utah in place of Brampton and Oklahoma City.
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