NHL to Seattle Volume XVI - It's Official. Seattle to join the league for 21-22 season.

[MNNumbers]

What schedule model are we going off of? There's at least 4 vs Division (28), exactly 2 vs other conference (32).
At least 2 vs other Division (16), leaving 6 for either "extra division" or "extra non-division."

Being in the Central Division would mean 14 road games vs the Central time zone teams.

It's easy to say that having VGK "play 36 of 82 (44%) with pucks dropping at 5 p.m. or earlier" is a bad idea. But...
- the first 16 are against ETZ games no matter which division they're in (And I'm frequently on record as being strongly opposed to the West playing 16 road games in the ETZ, period).
- The team in Pacific is going to have 16 ETZ games, 6 CTZ games.

We're really talking about eight games (9.7% of the schedule) being different for the team that's a fish out water.

And not every difference is automatically "abnormally bad." Saturday and Sunday games in the afternoon are not. Vegas scheduled a few home games on Saturday afternoons, as did a few of their road Pacific division opponents.


The question is: If these things are BAD FINANCIALLY for Vegas, they're also bad financially for Arizona. And Arizona has a lot less room for error if something is financially bad.

As I wrote, above, KevFu....

I think the numbers are slightly different. My analysis would go:
The schedule is likely to be 5/4 - 2. Means home/away with all teams, and the rest in division. The reason I say that is that the 4/3/2 arrangement won't work because it comes out with too many games. So, if I am right about that....
Start with 41 road games. The first 31 of those are obviously the same.... 1 versus all teams. That leaves 10 games potentially different.
If Vegas moved to the Central, those games would be....1 with Colorado in the MTZ. 6 against CTZ teams, and then 3 more, so about 1/2 the time one of those would also be MTZ. Thus, 8 1/2 CTZ, and 1 1/2 MTZ.
If Vegas stays in the Pacific, and Zona moves, those 10 games....2 with Cgy/Edm in the MTZ, and 5 against PTZ teams, and then 3 more. On average, 1 of those will be against Cgy/Edm, so the total comes out: 3 MTZ, 7 PTZ.
If Vegas stays and Cgy/Edm move, those 7 games....1 against Col in the MTZ. 5 in the PTZ, and 1 with ARZ, which we wouldn't know which time zone. Plus 3 more. I'll say that, on average, 1 game with ARZ in the MTZ, 1 with COL in the MTZ, and the rest PTZ. Thus, 8 PTZ, 2 MTZ.

Now, for Arizona......
All of the above applies to Arizona as well, except that one must realize that 1/3 of the games will happen with ARZ on PTZ time, and 2/3 on MTZ time. That means that moving ARZ yields only about 3 CTZ games with 5 PM starts. 3 games in a year. That shouldn't be a big deal.

But, as KevFu says, ARZ is a distressed franchise, and that might be hard on them. I mean moving to the Central because it's a different identity.

As far as the schedule goes, I am starting to think it's not a big deal, so it's likely happen.

 

[gstommylee]

Can we drop the idea of a major realignment its already been said that is not going to happen.

 

[KevFu]

Can we drop the idea of a major realignment its already been said that is not going to happen.

We're not talking major realignment. It's one team sliding to the Central, which has to happen with Seattle joining the Pacific.

As I wrote, above, KevFu....

I think the numbers are slightly different. My analysis would go:
(Math)

Now, for Arizona......
All of the above applies to Arizona as well, except that one must realize that 1/3 of the games will happen with ARZ on PTZ time, and 2/3 on MTZ time. That means that moving ARZ yields only about 3 CTZ games with 5 PM starts. 3 games in a year. That shouldn't be a big deal.

But, as KevFu says, ARZ is a distressed franchise, and that might be hard on them. I mean moving to the Central because it's a different identity.

As far as the schedule goes, I am starting to think it's not a big deal, so it's likely happen.

I ended up with that as my schedule: 2 vs the six CTZ, 2 vs COL; and another road game vs three of them.

As for the MST thing with Arizona, I don't think you can just divide trips by time of the season is MST/PDT. Let's face it, when teams go to Arizona and when Arizona goes to CTZ teams is going to change year to year, and it's probably going to be part of a road trip. COL/ARZ or ARZ/LA/ANA or whatever. There's no real rhyme or reason to how they do it other than arena availability.

That Arizona financial thing is entirely my point. If there's a negative financial aspect to being in the Central, Vegas is better equipped to deal with it than Arizona, obviously.

But if there's a negative effect FOR the Central teams of having someone in the MST or PT in their division, Vegas is by far a better option for them. Their viewers are more likely to stay up for Vegas than Arizona. Their fans are more likely to say "Let's just go to the road game instead of watching it on TV" if it's Vegas instead of Arizona.

 

[KevFu]

Personally, I’ve always been against playing everyone else home & away (because it remains dumb).

Play 4 vs conference (60 games), 1 vs other conference (16) and you've got six games left so play six division teams one extra time.

Whom the newest member of the central is becomes virtually moot and everyone ditches 8 games in far away time zones.

 

[gstommylee]

but it makes no sense for a pacific time zone like vegas to be playing division games 2 time zones away. That's not how these alignments were set up to begin with. Maybe vegas doesn't want to switch over to central. And i doubt NHL will force Vegas to central.

 

[KevFu]

but it makes no sense for a pacific time zone like vegas to be playing division games 2 time zones away. That's not how these alignments were set up to begin with. Maybe vegas doesn't want to switch over to central. And i doubt NHL will force Vegas to central.

1. There's 6 PTZ teams, 4 MTZ teams, 6 CTZ teams, 16 ETZ teams. You really can't help having people out of place if you're forcing four asymmetrical groups into four symmetrical divisions of eight.

2. This is yet another tail wagging the dog situation. The divisions were created as a schedule matrix which maximized local time zone games. And now we're arguing over the whom to slide into a division they don't "belong in" because of how it affects their TV times.

3. The solution to those two things is to stop forcing teams into the alignment we have, and start with a blank piece of paper and say Here's our 32 teams, the time zones they are in, the historical rivalries we have, and the economics of every match-up we have. What schedule model makes the best TV inventory?

Because if you're trying to make the best TV inventory possible, playing 48 vs the "other 24 teams" and 34 vs your divisional opponents makes zero business sense.

Just pretend for a second that the geography of the world or time zone maps were just different, and the NHL had a perfect symmetry:
PTZ: LA, ANA, VGK, SJ, SEA, VAN, EDM, CAL
MTZ: COL, ARZ, WIN, MIN, CHI, STL, NASH, DAL
CTZ: DET, CBJ, PIT, TOR, BUF, MON, OTT, CAR
ETZ: BOS, NYR, NYI, NJD, PHI, WAS, TB, FLA

Divisions exist to match-up teams in the same time zone and maximize local start time. Your seven most important rivals which bring you the most money when you play them... are going to be only 41% of the schedule, while you play 59% of your games against teams with a lower interest level, TV start times that aren't ideal, etc. It's inexplicable that anyone would think that's a good idea.

MLB teams play 76 of 162 (47%) against their division opponents, which are only 17% of the league.
Against the "other 83%" of the league, play play 53% of their games.
Throw in the interleague rivals and it's at 50% vs their best match-ups. And that's while NOT being divided into conferences by geography.


The league is simply too big to be trying to maximize local TV start times (which are the rivals fans want to see) AND play everyone home and home. MLB and NFL have been two leagues who don't play everyone, for 125 years in baseball and 50 in football. AND NO ONE MINDS THAT.

I don't want to derail this thread into a general realignment or schedule talk. But it is absolutely bonkers that we're arguing over "which team should have 9% of their schedule get worse for TV" when 40% of the East and 59% OF THE WESTERN CONFERENCE'S SCHEDULES IS TERRIBLE FOR TV.

 

[MNNumbers]

1. There's 6 PTZ teams, 4 MTZ teams, 6 CTZ teams, 16 ETZ teams. You really can't help having people out of place if you're forcing four asymmetrical groups into four symmetrical divisions of eight.

2. This is yet another tail wagging the dog situation. The divisions were created as a schedule matrix which maximized local time zone games. And now we're arguing over the whom to slide into a division they don't "belong in" because of how it affects their TV times.

3. The solution to those two things is to stop forcing teams into the alignment we have, and start with a blank piece of paper and say Here's our 32 teams, the time zones they are in, the historical rivalries we have, and the economics of every match-up we have. What schedule model makes the best TV inventory?

Because if you're trying to make the best TV inventory possible, playing 48 vs the "other 24 teams" and 34 vs your divisional opponents makes zero business sense.

Just pretend for a second that the geography of the world or time zone maps were just different, and the NHL had a perfect symmetry:
PTZ: LA, ANA, VGK, SJ, SEA, VAN, EDM, CAL
MTZ: COL, ARZ, WIN, MIN, CHI, STL, NASH, DAL
CTZ: DET, CBJ, PIT, TOR, BUF, MON, OTT, CAR
ETZ: BOS, NYR, NYI, NJD, PHI, WAS, TB, FLA

Divisions exist to match-up teams in the same time zone and maximize local start time. Your seven most important rivals which bring you the most money when you play them... are going to be only 41% of the schedule, while you play 59% of your games against teams with a lower interest level, TV start times that aren't ideal, etc. It's inexplicable that anyone would think that's a good idea.

MLB teams play 76 of 162 (47%) against their division opponents, which are only 17% of the league.
Against the "other 83%" of the league, play play 53% of their games.
Throw in the interleague rivals and it's at 50% vs their best match-ups. And that's while NOT being divided into conferences by geography.


The league is simply too big to be trying to maximize local TV start times (which are the rivals fans want to see) AND play everyone home and home. MLB and NFL have been two leagues who don't play everyone, for 125 years in baseball and 50 in football. AND NO ONE MINDS THAT.

I don't want to derail this thread into a general realignment or schedule talk. But it is absolutely bonkers that we're arguing over "which team should have 9% of their schedule get worse for TV" when 40% of the East and 59% OF THE WESTERN CONFERENCE'S SCHEDULES IS TERRIBLE FOR TV.

We've been through that a bunch, KevFu. Personally, I think the league has issues coming in the future, and part of that is related to what you are talking about here. Check out the thread on the new paradigm shift (I can't recall what it's called, but you'll see it). Marketing personnel in the league acknowledge that the younger generation identifies like this: Player first, then team, then game. That makes getting more eyeballs on the best players important for the future. But the league has to weight that against the present, which is that the current solid generation is connected more to their team and its rivals. So, how you schedule to maximize both of those things? Answer: You can't.

As to your comments on Arizona and road trips....You are exactly right, of course. And, that's why I wrote 'On average'. The important part is not the distance traveled, but rather the start times. The schedule will shift slightly between 4 and 5 games versus division opponents. And, it's probably just as likely to get a ARZ/LAK/ANA trip in October as February, although the league could demand of the scheduler that CTZ teams visit Arizona during (non-Daylight time).

In any case, the Central teams won't really care, although to be honest I think they would prefer Cgy and Edm, but it's not a big deal because it's ONE extra late night game for them. But for Vegas or Arizona, it's potentially much more than that. And, considering that Vegas is struggling this year, I wonder if we are about to see how strong the buzz there really is.....

Additionally, I continue to suggest that everyone just hold their fire, because we haven't heard anything from Arizona in regard to a new arena. And, Calgary is now beginning to talk to its city again. So, who knows what might happen.

 

[Bucky_Hoyt]

I would figure no AHL expansion for a while and probably go with a split franchise as others have suggested.

Reason being, the NHL will want to see out the inevitable relocation of Arizona to wherever they end up. Houston? Milwaukee? Kansas City? Portland? Timbuktu?

Whenever it happens, that will probably free up the Gila River Arena for any incoming AHL club. Maybe they become the Vegas Affiliate then?

Doubtful that we see Abbotsford get another AHL club unless it's the Canucks affiliate. Frankly, I think they're better suited for a WHL team.

 

[Dirty Old Man]

Reason being, the NHL will want to see out the inevitable relocation of Arizona to wherever they end up. Houston? Milwaukee? Kansas City? Portland? Timbuktu?.

Another diagnosis of "hanging around the BoH forum too much"

 

[gstommylee]

I doubt AHL would want another split AHL.

 

[KevFu]

Except that you can mid/back-load Arizona's divisional schedule and make it a 1 hour difference for a good portion of the season since they're always MST. 6:00 is better than 5:00, for sure.

I just always think it's funny that the league kind of moved heaven and earth for the Red Wings to not have to play in a division where they're an hour off, and that it's set in stone that it will never be different for them again, but when it comes to throwing a desert team into the central it's only a 9.7% difference.

I really don’t think they “moved heaven and earth” for Detroit. It was an easy fix because so many teams were unhappy with the 6x5 format.

CBJ was in the same position as DET.
DAL, MIN were in horrific divisions for TV times or travel.
COL wasn’t totally thrilled, but there’s not a lot of ideal situations for them.

WAS & LA; ATL, TB, FLA, CAR, SJ, ANA, DAL, ARZ were put into two divisions:
- FOUR brand new markets and one existing team. Only WAS/LA existed before 1988.
- That’s terrible to grow fan bases for those new teams. They were like an “NHL Annex” instead of being PART OF the league. Everyone expected those teams to become rivals because of… the map?

It makes it pretty easy to realign when 14 of 16 teams had issues with the alignment/schedule matrix. To say nothing of the fact that Atlanta moved to Winnipeg and realignment was totally necessary.

Also, Detroit was in a not-so-great situation like that in the 6x5 for 13 years, and before that, they were in a conference playing 48 to 52 games against Western teams since 1990.

Prior to the mass 90s expansion, being the “West” wasn’t really an issue because the lack of Western teams was so great, they were playing the majority of their games vs East anyway (8 vs division - one was TOR; 3 vs everyone else and 11 of them were in the East.


The NHL runs into problems when they pick a grid and try and jam teams into it, period.

And that’s the problem they’re in now with having 6 PTZ, 4 MTZ teams and 6 CTZ teams; and an 8-team grid.

 

[MNNumbers]

snip....
The NHL runs into problems when they pick a grid and try and jam teams into it, period.

And that’s the problem they’re in now with having 6 PTZ, 4 MTZ teams and 6 CTZ teams; and an 8-team grid.

No point to quote the whole thing. But, in reality, I don't think they have a problem at all. In the first place, your description of what they have is not correct. They actually have:

6 PTZ
1 hybrid PTZ and MTZ
3 MTZ
6 CTZ

The only reason we seem to think this might be a problem is because of the hybrid location. And, really, even then, there are 2 perfectly fine solutions that would serve well. Either ARZ/COL or CGY/EDM play with the Central Time Zone teams. Either way is fine.

The ONLY issue is that, while each solution is fine, neither is perfect.

Compared to what was before, in the 6 x5 arrangement, this is no problem at all.

Essentially, what we've been talking about here is equal to "how many angels can fit on the head of a pin?"

 

[KevFu]

Personally, I think the league has issues coming in the future, and part of that is related to what you are talking about here.

the younger generation identifies like this: Player first, then team, then game. That makes getting more eyeballs on the best players important for the future. But the league has to weight that against the present, which is that the current solid generation is connected more to their team and its rivals. So, how you schedule to maximize both of those things? Answer: You can't.

I find it hard to believe that when they’re selling a national TV package, an internet streaming package (which is a great deal when you break it down to “That’s 12 cents per game”), getting everyone in your building is better business and creating a “personal connection” between the players and fans.


I’m an Islanders fan in California. I went to see Tavares in San Jose multiple times. And again in Vegas. And let me tell you, I feel a far closer relationship to JT watching Islanders games on the Islanders network than I did sitting up in the best upper deck seats I could land with him in the same building.

The broadcast showing his face, talking about him, showing interviews with him, interviewing him in the tunnel after periods or on-ice after games when he’s the first star.

Let’s say you were at the same game I was at San Jose. And you saw me walking around in my Ziggy Palffy Fishsticks jersey, pointed and chuckled at how awesomely ridiculous it was I wore that and we high-fived.

Then I move to your city, PM you and we hang out and become friends. Your friends say “Who’s this Kev guy you’re bringing along?” Are you going to answer:
“He’s a poster on the HF boards. Long winded, but cool guy.”
OR “He’s a guy I high-fived at a hockey game once.” ?

Probably by this site. You may have SEEN me in person, but you’ve gotten to KNOW ME BETTER from reading my long-winded drivel.

If you’re a die-hard hockey fan buying good tickets to see the stars of the league up close and personal… you’re not really going to be affected by “who we playing tonight?” other than circling your calendar for the RARE TRIP someone makes.

And out of 185 days of the NHL regular season, only 41 are home dates. You want to connect with McDavid, go home and fire up NHLTV and watch the Oilers. Which you can do because you get all but 120 games for $140 (12 cents a game!).

 

[KevFu]

As to your comments on Arizona and

In any case, the Central teams won't really care,

Additionally, I continue to suggest that everyone just hold their fire, because we haven't heard anything from Arizona in regard to a new arena. And, Calgary is now beginning to talk to its city again. So, who knows what might happen.

But I think all of the “issues” and “that’s not great for COL and Central Team #8; or the six other Central teams because of them” all have a root cause of that Home/Away with everyone in the league.

If you played say, 5 Division / 4 conference / 11 total non-conference games, the difference between being placed in the Norris or Smythe is really only six games.

And the entire conference gets five fewer early start times vs the ETZ. I don’t think anyone in the West would be opposed to that. And I don’t think anyone in the East would really be opposed to cutting off five late starts.

You can’t serve two masters. The NHL is trying to serve three.
I’d say pick one primary, one secondary, ignore the third.

 

[MNNumbers]

But I think all of the “issues” and “that’s not great for COL and Central Team #8; or the six other Central teams because of them” all have a root cause of that Home/Away with everyone in the league.

If you played say, 5 Division / 4 conference / 11 total non-conference games, the difference between being placed in the Norris or Smythe is really only six games.

And the entire conference gets five fewer early start times vs the ETZ. I don’t think anyone in the West would be opposed to that. And I don’t think anyone in the East would really be opposed to cutting off five late starts.

You can’t serve two masters. The NHL is trying to serve three.
I’d say pick one primary, one secondary, ignore the third.

And, you have every right to think that. Every right. And, you can claim that NHL/BOG/Bettman is stupid for scheduling the way they do. But, they obviously have a different opinion.

But, since you started this....
Your 5/4 arrangement leaves 15 games, not 11. Obviously, you would tweak that somehow to 16 vs the opposite conference.

If you like that, I would say:
We go to 4 conferences. Each conference plays a home/away with TWO of the others, and a single game with the 3rd. That makes 40 games.
Each conference plays 6 games against conference rivals.
DONE.
Playoffs are 2 rounds in conference and then re-seed.

As far as AZ/COL or EDM/CGY....I don't care.

And, I still wonder about the way the BOG is using Houston. And, wondering specifically if, behind the scenes, there is something possibly going to happen for AZ or CGY

 

[KevFu]

And, you have every right to think that. Every right. And, you can claim that NHL/BOG/Bettman is stupid for scheduling the way they do. But, they obviously have a different opinion.

But, since you started this....
Your 5/4 arrangement leaves 15 games, not 11. Obviously, you would tweak that somehow to 16 vs the opposite conference.Y

Yeah, I screwed that up. But I "fixed" it later by screwing it up again later:
The difference between 15 and 32 non-conference games is not "five road games." It's 8 or 9 road games. Because those 15 non-conference games would be split home road (7 or 8).

 

[JFA87-66-99]

I'm interested in Seattle NHL ideas about Team names, Color Schemes, and possible AHL team location? Were is a good place to read about these topics.

 

[gstommylee]

There isn't much to talk about regarding names, colors etc yet. But this thread would be a good spot to talk about it. We are still several months away before name color are revealed.

 

[JFA87-66-99]

I've seen some name ideas like Kraken, Sockeyes, Steelheads, Spartans, Emeralds, etc. What names do you guys like? How about colors? I'd like to see Seattle use the Supersonics colors with the green/yellow combo too. Also AHL team info. I think they'll probably go with a California location like Sacramento, Fresno, or Oakland. But maybe somewhere like Portland, Spokane, or Boise would be better locations.

 

[JFA87-66-99]

I think Kraken sound cool and all right now but maybe a name that will still be cool in 20-30 years would be better.

 

[gstommylee]

I've seen some name ideas like Kraken, Sockeyes, Steelheads, Spartans, Emeralds, etc. What names do you guys like? How about colors? I'd like to see Seattle use the Supersonics colors with the green/yellow combo too. Also AHL team info. I think they'll probably go with a California location like Sacramento, Fresno, or Oakland. But maybe somewhere like Portland, Spokane, or Boise would be better locations.

color wise officially it won't be blue/green and green/yellow.

 

[JFA87-66-99]

color wise officially it won't be blue/green and green/yellow.

That's official. Why couldn't they use green/yellow? I know blue/green could be to similar to Vancouver. Also what do you think the new Seattle arena will be called? Microsoft or Starbucks Center or maybe Amazon Arena?

 

[gstommylee]

That's official. Why couldn't they use green/yellow? I know blue/green could be to similar to Vancouver. Also what do you think the new Seattle arena will be called? Microsoft or Starbucks Center or maybe Amazon Arena?

Saving the green/yellow for NBA once the sonics return.

 

[KevFu]

I don't see how you pick something different than the Seattle name that's already on the Stanley Cup.

 

[gstommylee]

I don't see how you pick something different than the Seattle name that's already on the Stanley Cup.

Agreed with that but its not our call.