NHL to Seattle Volume XV - Moving the Expansion Needle [Upd: 9/24 Arena Reno. Unanimously Approved]

[BattleBorn]

Can't compare vegas' timeline with Seattle's timeline since the expansion process started in december 2017 vs jun 2015 for vegas.

So a December 2018 announcement would put it a year since process start in vegas terms that was jun 2016.


Also Seattle is on a very very advance timeline.

I guess I'm not catching the December 2017 vs June 2015 dates, I assume you're thinking Seattle's application went in in December instead of February, but I don't think it matters much. Just providing a reference.

The only logical reason I can see for an "advanced timeline" was getting the city council on board with the Key renovation. Now that we know there's a waiver option and that Mayor Durkan will be at the presentation, I don't think that's in play anymore.

Outside of that, you can't advance the timeline too much because Seattle doesn't have an arena until Summer/Fall 2020 if things go well.

Most people are working forward from the application to get a December timeline for a Seattle vote. I'm working backward from the optimistic 2020-2021 start of play for a summer of next year vote, which just happens to coincide with what happened in Las Vegas.

Further, a summer 2019 vote/announcement would give the league an additional six months-plus to see progress on KeyArena once work starts under the waiver, as well as getting a little closer to the potential 2020-2021 lockout, which is likely a determining factor in when Seattle would start play. I don't think the league would want to have an expansion team's inaugural season be a labor dispute shortened season.

That doesn't even touch on the potential that NHL governors would likely be very likely to resist giving the 32nd team even more time to prepare for an expansion draft than they gave the Golden Knights, who wound up winning the Western Conference in their inaugural season.

 

[gstommylee]

A summer 2019 announcement = delay in construction which also delay in start of the franchise to 21-22 or even 22-23. Its not in the NHL's best interest to delay the announcement of the team any more. When the team actually starts is a separate thing.

Summer 2019 announcement doesn't even match any timelines with what the NHL said themselves. The NHL can now set things in place of when the NHL BOG has their vote. THat's always been up in the air cause we haven't finalized the arena yet. We have done that. The NHL knows that the arena will happen.

Vegas had their own timeline Seattle has theirs. No point in continuing to bring up what Vegas had for their timeline cause its two completely different things has been from the start.

 

[MNNumbers]

^^^ Thanks Tommy. That's a much more readable post.

Comments:
1- Cost obviously plays a hand in the matter. If the thing delays another year before shovels go in the ground, that might be 50M more. At some point, the numbers don't pencil out for OVG. I'm not sure where that point is, but it MUST exist somewhere.

2- In your opinion, how would it affect the market to have this happen:
a- Franchise granted in December.
b- Shovels in ground before the New Year
c- PA cancels CBA in Sept 2019, rendering the league with NO CBA for the 2020-21 season.
d- Construction continues because the parties MIGHT come to an agreement, so the arena better be ready.
e- No CBA is signed, and the 2020-21 season is cancelled, and the arena sits empty of its featured tenant for a whole year.

What does that do to the market?

 

[BattleBorn]

A summer 2019 announcement = delay in construction which also delay in start of the franchise to 21-22 or even 22-23. Its not in the NHL's best interest to delay the announcement of the team any more. When the team actually starts is a separate thing.

Summer 2019 announcement doesn't even match any timelines with what the NHL said themselves. The NHL can now set things in place of when the NHL BOG has their vote. THat's always been up in the air cause we haven't finalized the arena yet. We have done that. The NHL knows that the arena will happen.

Vegas had their own timeline Seattle has theirs. No point in continuing to bring up what Vegas had for their timeline cause its two completely different things has been from the start.

Haven't we established that there's a waiver that wouldn't delay construction? That's no longer an issue.

For as much as you think they're different, the Las Vegas expansion was a year behind what the league said themselves. That is my entire point. You're literally living Groundhog Day, and I'm trying to tell you to take a look at the past to see the future.

Hell, you were here on the BoH going through the Vegas thread when it was going on, how have you forgotten all about this?

Now that we know there's a waiver for construction start without a team, what reason is there to announce a team with a looming labor stoppage, potential construction issues screwing up a tight timeline, and some of the most competitive people in the world (NHL governors) wary about the same expansion team having 15 months to scout and going to the Stanley Cup Final?

Don't even compare Seattle to Vegas if you don't want to, just consider logic. The fact that the timelines match up working from the first game backward could just be my confirmation bias, but eliminating that consideration, it still makes almost no sense to announce in December.

This is just something for me to discuss because it's local, I'm not trying to rain on the parade. I do wish I'd have listened to people saying not to get excited for every time the governors met and that the league will operate on their own schedule. I'm doing the same in this thread having experienced it firsthand.

 

[gstommylee]

^^^ Thanks Tommy. That's a much more readable post.

Comments:
1- Cost obviously plays a hand in the matter. If the thing delays another year before shovels go in the ground, that might be 50M more. At some point, the numbers don't pencil out for OVG. I'm not sure where that point is, but it MUST exist somewhere.

2- In your opinion, how would it affect the market to have this happen:
a- Franchise granted in December.
b- Shovels in ground before the New Year
c- PA cancels CBA in Sept 2019, rendering the league with NO CBA for the 2020-21 season.
d- Construction continues because the parties MIGHT come to an agreement, so the arena better be ready.
e- No CBA is signed, and the 2020-21 season is cancelled, and the arena sits empty of its featured tenant for a whole year.

What does that do to the market?

There are other events that OVG has at the seattle center arena if its going to be another year. WNBA and concerts and other stuff.

Any potential cost over runs is going to be covered by OVG and its partner. Its really a non issue.

We can't assume there will be a lock out or a lost of season for that matter.

OVG already considered that a 21-22 start time could possible happen and so did the NHL.

The important part is get the team properly rooted into the market. Get all the sponsorship deals in place, Local TV deal in place etc.

 

[gstommylee]

Haven't we established that there's a waiver that wouldn't delay construction? That's no longer an issue.

For as much as you think they're different, the Las Vegas expansion was a year behind what the league said themselves. That is my entire point. You're literally living Groundhog Day, and I'm trying to tell you to take a look at the past to see the future.

Hell, you were here on the BoH going through the Vegas thread when it was going on, how have you forgotten all about this?

Now that we know there's a waiver for construction start without a team, what reason is there to announce a team with a looming labor stoppage, potential construction issues screwing up a tight timeline, and some of the most competitive people in the world (NHL governors) wary about the same expansion team having 15 months to scout and going to the Stanley Cup Final?

Don't even compare Seattle to Vegas if you don't want to, just consider logic. The fact that the timelines match up working from the first game backward could just be my confirmation bias, but eliminating that consideration, it still makes almost no sense to announce in December.

This is just something for me to discuss because it's local, I'm not trying to rain on the parade. I do wish I'd have listened to people saying not to get excited for every time the governors met and that the league will operate on their own schedule. I'm doing the same in this thread having experienced it firsthand.

The thing is with the waiver it on depends on the response by the NHL. A summer 2019 announcement mean that the league wasn't ready to give the okay for a December 2018 vote and to the city that inst guarantying of a team thus won't sign off on that waiver.

OVG said they want to move dirt in the next 30 to 60 days. NHL is basically next Tuesday with their BOG exec committee
has to give the go ahead to the full BOG to officially approve the franchise in December.

Everything that has been mentioned so far that the team announcement is December. The transaction document states with out that waiver construction can't start until December after the team is announcement. A positive response by the NHL after the exec committee meeting = construction starts as soon as some time next month.

 

[DougieMellon]

it still makes almost no sense to announce in December.

How much are we betting? Count me in.

 

[gstommylee]

It makes perfect sense for it to be in December or why why else would OVG even agree to those 15 requirements before construction starts.
OVG/NHL Seattle group do communicate with each other.

NHL will do what ever is in their best interest and they are willing to move mountains to get it done. Remember they started the expansion process last December when the arena wasn't even close to being finalized yet. They are getting their own homework out of the way.

 

[DougieMellon]

NHL up to this point has been waiting for the arena to get finalized. That has been taken care off last Monday. Its just a matter of getting through the league process. If exec committee give the full board the green light to go ahead and grant the franchise, the full vote happens in December.

This 100%. To back it up a little... here is part of a conversation I had with a league exec.

 

[DougieMellon]

it still makes almost no sense to announce in December.

You are forgetting a massive piece here.. the city of Seattle. It makes sense for them and the league has to consider what the city requires if they want to expand there. It may not seem like it, but this is a two way dicussion between the city / ovg and the league.

 

[BattleBorn]

The thing is with the waiver it on depends on the response by the NHL. A summer 2019 announcement mean that the league wasn't ready to give the okay for a December 2018 vote and to the city that inst guarantying of a team thus won't sign off on that waiver.

OVG said they want to move dirt in the next 30 to 60 days. NHL is basically next Tuesday with their BOG exec committee
has to give the go ahead to the full BOG to officially approve the franchise in December.

Everything that has been mentioned so far that the team announcement is December. The transaction document states with out that waiver construction can't start until December after the team is announcement. A positive response by the NHL after the exec committee meeting = construction starts as soon as some time next month.

If the agreement requires a league vote on the 32nd team coming to Seattle to Allow the waiver, it’s not a waiver. It’s just fulfilling the obligations to start construction. I’m not saying they won’t give some positive reinforcement that a team is coming to Seattle. It’s a given that it’s going to happen.

I’m saying I think it’s extremely unlikely the full BoG votes to expand the league and grant a franchise to Seattle in December with all the question marks surrounding the league and the team and the ability for the last team to do what they did in 15 months or so. Again, these are: lockout potential, arena construction issue potential, VGK scouting and the results of the expansion draft, and VGK’s complete fulfillment of all corporate business issues (sponsorships, media deals, etc) in a less attractive market than Seattle.

If Durkan leaves the meeting thinking everything is fine (and I’m not debating that is it) I fully expect her to suggest invoking the waiver or doing it herself if she can, allowing construction to start.

 

[DougieMellon]

I think it’s extremely unlikely the full BoG votes to expand the league and grant a franchise to Seattle in December

Even if it's an announcment for 2021?

 

[BattleBorn]

Even if it's an announcment for 2021?

Yes.

Once the potential arena issues are taken care of by delaying the inaugural season a year, you then run into the issue of trying to get the league’s Governors (who run all the other teams, mind you) to allow Seattle to start a hockey operations department, hire a GM, and start scouting NHL games. That’s two seasons prior to the Seattle expansion draft.

Vegas just went to the Stanley Cup Final and won the Pacific Division after scouting the league for one season. Think people want to give Seattle twice as long?

If you’re a governor, especially a Pacific Division or Western Conference governor, do you sign on to that in December? Do you sign on after the city grants the waiver after the October presentation and Key has been under construction for a month and a half?

 

[DougieMellon]

to allow Seattle to start a hockey operations department, hire a GM, and start scouting NHL games. That’s two seasons prior to the Seattle expansion draft.

Serious question. You don't think this is already underway?

 

[BattleBorn]

Serious question. You don't think this is already underway?

VGK had Murray Craven checking games out, so I don’t put it out of the question that someone related to Seattle is seeing games and writing reports.

They definitely don’t have a scouting department or any plural number of scouts that aren’t paying their own way into games. Got to have a franchise for that.

 

[DougieMellon]

Got to have a franchise for that.

I promise you that is 100% wrong.

 

[MNNumbers]

What's Dave Tippett's official job title, and who is employing him?

 

[BattleBorn]

I promise you that is 100% wrong.

Scouts sign into games when they’re given scouting access to a game to scout. Find something saying someone from NHL Seattle that isn’t a known executive with OVG and I’ll be extremely surprised. Whoever the Seattle equivalent to Murray Craven is may take some games. That’s got to be it.

Do you know they have scouts, or are you just making the assumption?

 

[snovalleyhockeyfan]

What's Dave Tippett's official job title, and who is employing him?

Do not know what the job title is, but I believe Oak View's paying his paychecks......

 

[TheLegend]

What's Dave Tippett's official job title, and who is employing him?

Official title is "senior adviser" for OVG.

Seattle group hires ex-Coyotes coach Tippett

 

[gstommylee]

OVG would never agreed to those 14 other requirements (minus the FEIS potential appeal) if an announcement wasn't coming in the near future. Remember this is the largest private project ever in the history of Seattle. Seattle is its best interested to protect themselves and the project.

Regarding scouting for potential expansion draft picks, they are doing early scouting.



Remember the also said they'll have a name picked early 2019. They wouldn't be doing this if the announcement isn't until june of 2019.

 

[DougieMellon]

Scouts sign into games when they’re given scouting access to a game to scout.

Oh lord.

Find something saying someone from NHL Seattle that isn’t a known executive with OVG and I’ll be extremely surprised.

Not sure what this means.

Whoever the Seattle equivalent to Murray Craven is may take some games. That’s got to be it.

That would be Dave Tippet

Do you know they have scouts, or are you just making the assumption?

Never once said they did. Saying NOTHING is stopping them from doing so.

 

[BattleBorn]

Oh lord.


Not sure what this means.


That would be Dave Tippet



Never once said they did. Saying NOTHING is stopping them from doing so.

I guess I don't get your point. There's also nothing stopping them from starting their hockey team and playing in Kent until 2020, other than wanting an NHL franchise.

This is all deviating from from the question. If you're an NHL Governor, and there is no reason to vote on expanding to Seattle this December since the waiver to start construction is already in effect and there's currently doing demo work at Key, do you vote to expand to Seattle this December? What is your reason for doing so?

 

[gstommylee]

I guess I don't get your point. There's also nothing stopping them from starting their hockey team and playing in Kent until 2020, other than wanting an NHL franchise.

This is all deviating from from the question. If you're an NHL Governor, and there is no reason to vote on expanding to Seattle this December since the waiver to start construction is already in effect and there's currently doing demo work at Key, do you vote to expand to Seattle this December? What is your reason for doing so?

Seattle isn't going to grant that waiver nor will they allow construction to start if the team isn't going to be announced until December nor will the exec committee will give the green light for the full BOG to vote to grant the franchise in summer of 2019. This isn't not out it works.

If the NHL isn't ready for grant the franchise in December then construction wont begin this year.

 

[DougieMellon]

So let me get this straight.. you are saying that hiring a staff before expansion is awarded and playing in an arena with 6,500 capacity are equally as likely?

do you vote to expand to Seattle this December? What is your reason for doing so?

Yes, because I have zero idea as to what is happening on the backend and only going off my dicussions with NHL execs and OVG which are ALL saying December is the objective. Notice how I'm not saying anything is absolute here.