NHL to Seattle Volume XV - Moving the Expansion Needle [Upd: 9/24 Arena Reno. Unanimously Approved]

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MikeCubs

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BattleBorn

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Tariffs on imported construction materials were a factor in the increase of a KeyArena renovation cost, according to Oak View Group CEO Tim Leiweke.

Tariffs Cited as Factor in Rising KeyArena Renovation Cost - Arena Digest
So they predicted costs of $700MM and were planning on using Chinese steel, aluminum, and rebar?

That doesn't even touch on the idea that a 25% tariff would mean they were planning on purchasing $400MM or so of these materials to increase costs $100MM.

I'm guessing he's just inflating the price a little to make everything go a little more smoothly while also using a Seattle-friendly reason.
 

gstommylee

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So they predicted costs of $700MM and were planning on using Chinese steel, aluminum, and rebar?

That doesn't even touch on the idea that a 25% tariff would mean they were planning on purchasing $400MM or so of these materials to increase costs $100MM.

I'm guessing he's just inflating the price a little to make everything go a little more smoothly while also using a Seattle-friendly reason.

price of material always adjusts up or down. that wasn't the only reason why its 700m. Construction costs on how they are going to move all that dirt with out making huge noise impact.
 
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StreetHawk

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price of material always adjusts up or down. that wasn't the only reason why its 700m. Construction costs on how they are going to move all that dirt with out making huge noise impact.
it’s construction, deal with it.
 

StreetHawk

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You asked why it costs 700m for it and i was explaining why.
Was referring to the point where they had to remove the dirt without making much noise. That's ridiculous that noise is a concern, that will add more costs to the project. My goodness.
 

gstommylee

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Was referring to the point where they had to remove the dirt without making much noise. That's ridiculous that noise is a concern, that will add more costs to the project. My goodness.

Not when construction is day and night. The noise issue is a big deal in the middle of the night.

We are on a very tight timeline if we want to hit the start time of 20-21.
 
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MikeCubs

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So they predicted costs of $700MM and were planning on using Chinese steel, aluminum, and rebar?

That doesn't even touch on the idea that a 25% tariff would mean they were planning on purchasing $400MM or so of these materials to increase costs $100MM.

I'm guessing he's just inflating the price a little to make everything go a little more smoothly while also using a Seattle-friendly reason.

They may not be using Chinese steel, aluminum and rebar. Quote from Leiweke in the link. “Even when you have manufacturers and suppliers that are within the United States, they know they can charge more now because of the tariffs.”

I'm sure it's not the reason for the full $100 extra though but it's part of it.
 
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I may be a little behind...but $700M renovation cost ???

Holy... I guess Vegas and Quebec did a bargain having their (brand new) buildings cost $375 millions.

I saw Detroit cost 860+M. How did the cost double in under 5 years time ?


This is essentially going to be a new building. Labor/construction cost likely to be higher in Seattle as well.
 

snovalleyhockeyfan

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Was referring to the point where they had to remove the dirt without making much noise. That's ridiculous that noise is a concern, that will add more costs to the project. My goodness.

Not when construction is day and night. The noise issue is a big deal in the middle of the night.

We are on a very tight timeline if we want to hit the start time of 20-21.

Street, the issue with the noise being such a big deal is that the LQA area which is next to the arena is a residential neighborhood, so this was their primary issue aside from the traffic and the issues regarding that. Considerable attention had to be paid to addressing this concern in order to get the support of the LQA neighborhood groups (Uptown Alliance, etc.) and probably even Bagshaw (that area' rep) on the Council although I'm sure she would have supported it anyway no matter what. It does increase the costs, but it to them is a tradeoff they're willing to make in order to do this. Same for that clause we discussed previously about no construction beginning before an actual franchise is awarded. They're willing to do that because they appear very confident in their chances of getting the team, so again, another tradeoff in order to make this work. Almost seems as if Oak View is bending over pretty far to play nice with the City to make this happen.
 

gstommylee

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This will be fun to watch going forward. I expect an announcement at anytime early in 2019 that Seattle has a team.

For the last time team announcement is not going to be in 2019. Its going to happen this year.
 

Kitsune

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So they predicted costs of $700MM and were planning on using Chinese steel, aluminum, and rebar?

That doesn't even touch on the idea that a 25% tariff would mean they were planning on purchasing $400MM or so of these materials to increase costs $100MM.

I'm guessing he's just inflating the price a little to make everything go a little more smoothly while also using a Seattle-friendly reason.

Because every major Steel Producer in the World had Steel Tariffs imposed on them for National Security Reasons (even Canada..).... and domestic industry in the states increases there prices because even with a price increase - keep it smaller then the tariffs and you'll still gain new customers and be making more money.
 

gstommylee

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Do you promise that is the last time you are going to say that?:D:D

Is that the last time you are going to ask me to promise that its the last time i am going to say that? ;)

Seriously it would be nice people pay attention to what the current timeline is.

October 2nd NHL exec committee meeting with NHL
Some time in December full BOG vote.
Somewhere between October 2nd and December Bog meeting construction will begin pending how the exec committee goes.
 

MNNumbers

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Is that the last time you are going to ask me to promise that its the last time i am going to say that? ;)

Seriously it would be nice people pay attention to what the current timeline is.

October 2nd NHL exec committee meeting with NHL
Some time in December full BOG vote.
Somewhere between October 2nd and December Bog meeting construction will begin pending how the exec committee goes.

Tommy,
You have a lot of good information to share. I have said it before. I wish you would explain yourself. You often simply say what you want to happen, and what you want everyone to believe. It sounds preachy, as if you wish everyone would just SHUT UP and take your word for it. But this is a discussion board. People aren't going to just SHUT UP.

What does "Pending how the Exec Comm goes mean in your post?" I would take to mean that the ExComm might delay the matter. Am I misunderstanding you?
 

BattleBorn

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Just for reference:

February 10, 2015 - Ticket Drive Starts (Seattle - March 1, 2018)
June 20, 2015 - Las Vegas Expansion Application Submitted. (Seattle - February 13, 2018)
(Seattle is here)

September 29, 2015 - Black Knight Presentation to Executive Committee
December 11, 2015 - BoG Meeting
January 8, 2016 - "Secret" BoG Meeting (This is the weirdness I'm trying to avoid you all going through if/when it doesn't happen in December.)
April 6, 2016 - T-Mobile Arena opens.
June 7, 2016 - Executive Committee formally recommends expansion.
June 22, 2016 - Full Vote, Expansion announced.
July 13, 2016 - McPhee hired as GM
March 1, 2017 - Final Expansion Payment Made, Las Vegas is officially a team.
April 13, 2017 - Gallant hired as Coach.
June 17, 2017 - Protection Lists Submitted to league.
June 20-21, 2017 - Expansion Draft.
September 17th - First Preseason Game
October 6, 2017 - First Regular Season Game

This timeline, mind you, involved the prospect of a Quebec team, which may have been the reason for a delay from the December 2015 BoG meeting vote to June 2016. However, the vote/announcement falling a year prior to the expansion draft is worth noting.

This expansion had an arena ready at a much earlier date in the process than Seattle.
This expansion also had a little over 15 months to prepare for the inaugural season and went on to win the Western Conference.

I realize a good portion of us think these are two different timelines and aren't really similar, I'm just providing this to show how it unfolded in the last expansion.
 

gstommylee

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Tommy,
You have a lot of good information to share. I have said it before. I wish you would explain yourself. You often simply say what you want to happen, and what you want everyone to believe. It sounds preachy, as if you wish everyone would just SHUT UP and take your word for it. But this is a discussion board. People aren't going to just SHUT UP.

What does "Pending how the Exec Comm goes mean in your post?" I would take to mean that the ExComm might delay the matter. Am I misunderstanding you?

I was referring to that wavier clause in the transaction document that requires team to be secured before construction starts. That waiver can happen as soon as after the Exec committee with a positive outcome.

The whole team won't get announced until 2019 does not match up with ANY timeline provided by the NHL ownership group. And any delay by the NHL in terms of announcing of the team will potentially delay start of construction.
 

gstommylee

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Jan 31, 2012
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Just for reference:

February 10, 2015 - Ticket Drive Starts (Seattle - March 1, 2018)
June 20, 2015 - Las Vegas Expansion Application Submitted. (Seattle - February 13, 2018)
(Seattle is here)

September 29, 2015 - Black Knight Presentation to Executive Committee
December 11, 2015 - BoG Meeting
January 8, 2016 - "Secret" BoG Meeting (This is the weirdness I'm trying to avoid you all going through if/when it doesn't happen in December.)
April 6, 2016 - T-Mobile Arena opens.
June 7, 2016 - Executive Committee formally recommends expansion.
June 22, 2016 - Full Vote, Expansion announced.
July 13, 2016 - McPhee hired as GM
March 1, 2017 - Final Expansion Payment Made, Las Vegas is officially a team.
April 13, 2017 - Gallant hired as Coach.
June 17, 2017 - Protection Lists Submitted to league.
June 20-21, 2017 - Expansion Draft.
September 17th - First Preseason Game
October 6, 2017 - First Regular Season Game

This timeline, mind you, involved the prospect of a Quebec team, which may have been the reason for a delay from the December 2015 BoG meeting vote to June 2016. However, the vote/announcement falling a year prior to the expansion draft is worth noting.

This expansion had an arena ready at a much earlier date in the process than Seattle.
This expansion also had a little over 15 months to prepare for the inaugural season and went on to win the Western Conference.

I realize a good portion of us think these are two different timelines and aren't really similar, I'm just providing this to show how it unfolded in the last expansion.

Can't compare vegas' timeline with Seattle's timeline since the expansion process started in december 2017 vs jun 2015 for vegas.

So a December 2018 announcement would put it a year since process start in vegas terms that was jun 2016.


Also Seattle is on a very very advance timeline.
 

MNNumbers

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I was referring to that wavier clause in the transaction document that requires team to be secured before construction starts. That waiver can happen as soon as after the Exec committee with a positive outcome.

The whole team won't get announced until 2019 does not match up with ANY timeline provided by the NHL ownership group. And any delay by the NHL in terms of announcing of the team will potentially delay start of construction.

Does this mean that there is a secret handshake agreement already between the NHL ownership group and the NHL and its Exec Committee?

And, yes, it's clear that delay by NHL equals delay of construction. And, it's probably true that no party involved in this wants a delay. Seattle obviously doesn't because they have a private party willing to build them a new arena, AND keep the Key arena roof, all for NO public funds. OVG doesn't want delays because any delay = higher costs. NHL, you wouldn't think, wants delays because they want to be in Seattle.

However, NHL might have misgivings because of labor strife. Or....It's definitely true that they want the order to go....You build it. Then we decide if we want to come. Hence Winnipeg waited. And Quebec waits. We know that's what they want. For appearance' sake, they may not want to look like they are jumping quickly into this. Who knows?

Or, they might do something like this:
We grant OVG a provisional franchise, for the cost of 650M. However, they are not allowed to conduct ANY business, including formal hiring of front office people, until (insert date here). That would be a guarantee, but it wouldn't give them any head start.
 

gstommylee

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Jan 31, 2012
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Does this mean that there is a secret handshake agreement already between the NHL ownership group and the NHL and its Exec Committee?

And, yes, it's clear that delay by NHL equals delay of construction. And, it's probably true that no party involved in this wants a delay. Seattle obviously doesn't because they have a private party willing to build them a new arena, AND keep the Key arena roof, all for NO public funds. OVG doesn't want delays because any delay = higher costs. NHL, you wouldn't think, wants delays because they want to be in Seattle.

However, NHL might have misgivings because of labor strife. Or....It's definitely true that they want the order to go....You build it. Then we decide if we want to come. Hence Winnipeg waited. And Quebec waits. We know that's what they want. For appearance' sake, they may not want to look like they are jumping quickly into this. Who knows?

Or, they might do something like this:
We grant OVG a provisional franchise, for the cost of 650M. However, they are not allowed to conduct ANY business, including formal hiring of front office people, until (insert date here). That would be a guarantee, but it wouldn't give them any head start.

Sigh. How much the thing costs has nothing to do with whether or not construction starts next month November December or next year. Delay of construction = delay of when team begins playing. They are targeting a 20-21 start time and any delay past December = 21-22 start time.

NHL already said they won't grant a conditional franchise or they would have already done that.

NHL up to this point has been waiting for the arena to get finalized. That has been taken care off last Monday. Its just a matter of getting through the league process. If exec committee give the full board the green light to go ahead and grant the franchise, the full vote happens in December. I thin its both interest in the ownership group and the NHL to get the team announced as soon as they possible can.

The sooner the team is announced the better it is for the franchise in terms of getting it rooted into the market. They only have once chance to get this right. Of course things can happen that can delay start of the franchise by a year (lockout)
 
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