NHL suspends season due to COVID19 - Part 3

[FunkySeeFunkyDoo]

...

If Sweden ends up with a similar rate of fatalities but half the damage to their economy I think their plan would be a success.

...

That is clearly true. Heck, I think if they have similar rates of fatalities and even a miniscule improvement in the economic impact then they have succeeded.

 

[Micklebot]

No, they'll just have a tsunami instead. Another 170 dead in Sweden today. Much higher than any day Canada has had so far.

With what, a third of the population of Canada?

It will be interesting to see what happens, they are gambling that they can keep the curve flatened with less strict measures. Hopefully things don't approach the levels NYC or other hotspots have seen for them.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

I watched an interview from their minister of health (equivalent). They may end up being wrong but they aren’t “doing nothing”. They have a calculated goal to reduce fatalities and protect the economy like anyone.

Canada is sitting at +600 fatalities but our models predict 20000 or so over 12+ months.

If Sweden ends up with a similar rate of fatalities but half the damage to their economy I think their plan would be a success.

We are already seeing Q fatigue. Our roads are getting busier. Wait until the weather gets nice.

Is there evidence of this ? Where is this happening?

 

[Masked]

With what, a third of the population of Canada?

It will be interesting to see what happens, they are gambling that they can keep the curve flatened with less strict measures. Hopefully things don't approach the levels NYC or other hotspots have seen for them.

Their death rate is almost 5 times that of Canada.

 

[Micklebot]

That is clearly true. Heck, I think if they have similar rates of fatalities and even a miniscule improvement in the economic impact then they have succeeded.

The question is what evidence is there that they will be able to have similar death rates with less mitigation measures?

To me that suggests the total deaths are inevitable which seems wrong.

Presumably, the longer this goes the better we become at treating it and the lower the fatality rate becomes. If that's the case, getting it early seems to be a disadvantage.

 

[Sweatred]

The question is what evidence is there that they will be able to have similar death rates with less mitigation measures?

To me that suggests the total deaths are inevitable which seems wrong.

Presumably, the longer this goes the better we become at treating it and the lower the fatality rate becomes. If that's the case, getting it early seems to be a disadvantage.

There isn’t evidence that any model will work perfectly.

For example what evidence is there that supports Canada’s policy as being ideal after 18 months.

 

[Sensung]

So, Canadian citizens have some sort of magic way of not catching covid-19? Why only isolate non-citizens here?

We need a WHO. Viruses don't give a damn about imaginary lines on a map.

You do know who pays for any and all tariffs at the end of the day.....right?

The WHO needs all responsible for protecting China to be fired immediately and China needs to be forced to acknowledge their culpability in creating this pandemic through their lies.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/china-coronavirus-pandemic-covid-who-1.5531968

 

[FunkySeeFunkyDoo]

The question is what evidence is there that they will be able to have similar death rates with less mitigation measures?

To me that suggests the total deaths are inevitable which seems wrong.

Presumably, the longer this goes the better we become at treating it and the lower the fatality rate becomes. If that's the case, getting it early seems to be a disadvantage.

Yeah, I'm not suggesting that their approach will work. If anything I think the opposite is true and it will be quite bad for them.

I'm just saying that if 12 months out they have similar fatality rates to us, then they will have succeeded.

Hope for them that it happens, but I'm very doubtful.

 

[Micklebot]

There isn’t evidence that any model will work perfectly.

For example what evidence is there that supports Canada’s policy as being ideal after 18 months.

Nobody said anything about ideal, there are trade offs no matter what route you choose and as such ideal depends on what you value more.

But you proposed a brought up Sweden's hypothesis with no trade off: better economy with same overall death rate. The suggestion being that differing degrees of mitigation strategies will have no impact on the death rate when all is said and done (or alternatively a situation where other variables will impact death rates which renders any comparisson pointless).

 

[Sweatred]

Nobody said anything about ideal, there are trade offs no matter what route you choose and as such ideal depends on what you value more.

But you proposed a hypothesis with no trade off: better economy with same overall death rate. The suggestion being that differing degrees of mitigation strategies will have no impact on the death rate when all is said and done (or alternatively a situation where other variables will impact death rates which renders any comparisson pointless).

I didn't propose a hypothesis. I paraphrased what I watched Sweden discuss on CNN. Ignore it if you want.

That’s their goal, limit fatalities, limit economic damage. It’s just a conversation about a country doing something different than the norm. It isn’t a Ph.D. Dissertation.

 

[Micklebot]

I didn't propose a hypothesis. I paraphrased what I watched Sweden discuss on CNN. Ignore it if you want.

Sorry, didn't mean to suggest this was your brainchild or where suggesting it for Canada, all i am doing is discussing what you brought up.

I'll edit my post to make that more clear.

 

[YouGotAStuGoing]

I didn't propose a hypothesis. I paraphrased what I watched Sweden discuss on CNN. Ignore it if you want.

That’s their goal, limit fatalities, limit economic damage. It’s just a conversation not a Ph.D. Dissertation.

If that is their goal, they're not doing a very good job. As of April 15, their death rate is at 1,033, compared to neighbouring countries Denmark (299), Norway (127) and Finland (64).

 

[DrEasy]

Sweden is calculating that their total fatalities over 12-18 months will be less and they will do less damage to their economy.

Acquiring herd immunity months before countries like Canada could save 1000’s of lives and billions of dollars.

Maybe they don't need to flatten the curve as much because maybe (I don't know but I suspect it's true) their hospital bed occupancy rate, and more generally their epidemic-readiness, is better than ours?

 

[Sensung]

If that is their goal, they're not doing a very good job. As of April 15, their death rate is at 1,033, compared to neighbouring countries Denmark (299), Norway (127) and Finland (64).

True, but they were willing to take a higher death rate early in their model, so these results are expected. Not saying it will work or is the correct plan for Canada, just pointing out that current numbers don't tell the whole story.

Has anyone discussed a urban vs rural approach?

Would Sweden be doing better if they had one set of more restrictive rules for urban areas?

 

[Sens]

If that is their goal, they're not doing a very good job. As of April 15, their death rate is at 1,033, compared to neighbouring countries Denmark (299), Norway (127) and Finland (64).

but those countries will have to open up for the economy and will have new waves... over time the numbers will even out while Sweden kept the economy alive

 

[Sweatred]

Maybe they don't need to flatten the curve as much because maybe (I don't know but I suspect it's true) their hospital bed occupancy rate, and more generally their epidemic-readiness, is better than ours?

As much as their current fatality rate is higher I haven’t heard anything to support their hospitals system can’t handle the strain yet. If their cases exceed their hospital capacity I’d say they have failed.

On the other hand our hospital system appears to be a little under capacity (with no disrespect meant to our hospital staff). They may fatigue in 2-12 months with a constant steady stream of cases and no break.

 

[Sweatred]

If that is their goal, they're not doing a very good job. As of April 15, their death rate is at 1,033, compared to neighbouring countries Denmark (299), Norway (127) and Finland (64).

The goal is to limit fatalities at the end of this cycle (12-18minths) . The area under a curve equals the number of fatalities. A short, long flat curve can have more fatalities than a sharp, high, short curve.

 

[Knave]

Ontario back above 6,000 tests again finally. Backlog nearly doubled... so people are getting swabbed too.

Because our testing is so bad I tend to follow Hospitalizations/ICU/Ventilators and while hospitalizations have been growing, ICU admissions and ventilators have been flat for a while now so it's unlikely the system gets overwhelmed:

Number of patients hospitalized with COVID-19	Number of patients in ICU with COVID-19	Number of patients in ICU on a ventilator with COVID-19
632	264	214
673	260	217
691	257	215
738	261	196
760	263	203
769	255	199
795	254	188

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

 

[Stylizer1]

Is there evidence of this ? Where is this happening?

There is a noticeable difference. Roads used to be like Christmas morning, and now they feel like a light Sunday

 

[Sweatred]

With what, a third of the population of Canada?

It will be interesting to see what happens, they are gambling that they can keep the curve flatened with less strict measures. Hopefully things don't approach the levels NYC or other hotspots have seen for them.

Just Info. A 35 year old relatively healthy friend of mine was diagnosed with Covid in NYC. His doctor prescribed him Tamiflu x8, HydroxCL, and a AZithromycin. A similair friend in Ottawa diagnosed and told to go home, self isolate.

 

[Sens]

Ontario back above 6,000 tests again finally. Backlog nearly doubled... so people are getting swabbed too.

Because our testing is so bad I tend to follow Hospitalizations/ICU/Ventilators and while hospitalizations have been growing, ICU admissions and ventilators have been flat for a while now so it's unlikely the system gets overwhelmed:

Number of patients hospitalized with COVID-19	Number of patients in ICU with COVID-19	Number of patients in ICU on a ventilator with COVID-19
632	264	214
673	260	217
691	257	215
738	261	196
760	263	203
769	255	199
795	254	188

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

The goal was to flatten the curve
Ontario has 3400 ventilators

we can open a substantial amount of the economy... there was no curve

 

[Stylizer1]

Personally, the more they blame China the the more skeptical I get. The US has been trying to paint China with the brush of negativity for years trying to slow them down internationally. This virus is just the cherry on top. Since we are the good guys only the bad guys use propaganda, right?

 

[Knave]

Personally, the more they blame China the the more skeptical I get. The US has been trying to paint China with the brush of negativity for years trying to slow them down internationally. This virus is just the cherry on top. Since we are the good guys only the bad guys use propaganda, right?

They have a million Muslims in concentration camps. They kidnap and murder citizens living in Vietnam and surrounding countries who write negative blog posts about the Communist party. They jail and steal organs from a minority religious population because of their religion.

They make Iran look gentle.

[Mod]

 

[Sens]

Germany beginning to open stuff back up
Germany to extend lockdown until May 3 with some easing - draft | Regina Leader Post

The proposals include reopening schools gradually starting May 4 with priority given to primary and secondary pupils in final years, while day-care centers will remain shut. Schools must prepare a hygiene plan before they reopen their doors.
...
But retailers whose shops are up to 800 sq meters as well hairdressers, zoos, and public libraries will be allowed to open next week under strict social distancing and hygiene rules.

 

[Masked]

The goal was to flatten the curve
Ontario has 3400 ventilators

we can open a substantial amount of the economy... there was no curve

Because flattening it was effective? Has enough really been learned about COVID-19 that we want to fight it full on right now instead of waiting until we have more information?