NHL suspends season due to COVID19 - Part 3

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JD1

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Sep 12, 2005
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No there won’t be. Most people actually understand the situation

I would argue that the people in charge of the situation don't understand the situation....and I am not complaining in saying that ….but I read about this a lot and one thing is evidently quite clear ….experts in the situation are changing their opinions rapidly

I think Canadians largely understand the need for distancing and we are a pretty compliant people so we are. That's all we understand

but so far, the situation as it is being explained by experts isn't materializing....anyone following this knows that the local health authority doc, Vera Etches, was a few weeks back calling for potentially 4,000 cases next week and 16,000 the week after....high side estimates for sure...but here we are a week after the 16,000 cases were supposed to exist and we are sitting on what? 500 cases locally?

everyone social distance. good. great. we got this. numbers are not materializing. that is a fact. what is not understood is why are they not materializing? and it's not lack testing. our per capita testing is 3rd highest amongst the 13th most infected countries....if more testing was the answer, all those other countries need more testing as badly as we do and their infection rates would also rise.
 

thinkwild

Veni Vidi Toga
Jul 29, 2003
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We've seen in places like Italy and New York when they dont get the exponential growth problem dealt with quickly, it can create horrible situations that the models account for. So if Canada's hospital situation is not at that level it makes me think that we have more been successful at getting it under control rather than thinking the projections were wrong.

But certainly we know all the numbers in the model are still being refined so it shouldnt be surprising when they get refined either.

Im not sure it will come as a declare victory moment where we all return. Hopefully it more comes as: we have a plan for slowly moving forward. One that involves a solid plan for mass testing and quick containment when found. Also better therapeutics which are being tested now. It will likely still require some social distancing and mask wearing. And the curve not to have just plateaued but also gone back down.

If we were to hold a sens game, at what level of death are you thinking im ok with those odds: one of those sens fans dying within 3 weeks? 5? 20?

It doesnt seem right to think the decision will be made as: ok, ive had enough, lets go back. The decision will have to be ok here is the plan, we have the resources to do it now, and the risk is at an acceptable level.
 

FormentonTheFuture

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Sep 29, 2017
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I would argue that the people in charge of the situation don't understand the situation....and I am not complaining in saying that ….but I read about this a lot and one thing is evidently quite clear ….experts in the situation are changing their opinions rapidly

I think Canadians largely understand the need for distancing and we are a pretty compliant people so we are. That's all we understand

but so far, the situation as it is being explained by experts isn't materializing....anyone following this knows that the local health authority doc, Vera Etches, was a few weeks back calling for potentially 4,000 cases next week and 16,000 the week after....high side estimates for sure...but here we are a week after the 16,000 cases were supposed to exist and we are sitting on what? 500 cases locally?

everyone social distance. good. great. we got this. numbers are not materializing. that is a fact. what is not understood is why are they not materializing? and it's not lack testing. our per capita testing is 3rd highest amongst the 13th most infected countries....if more testing was the answer, all those other countries need more testing as badly as we do and their infection rates would also rise.
Yes it is lack of testing. Ontario is barely testing anybody. Dr. Etches isn’t just talking about confirmed cases, she’s talking about anybody has has the virus. Tons of people probably have the virus but aren’t eligible for testing, so they are just isolating at home. Yes the numbers would be much lower than anticipated but the testing does not reflect the situation here at all.
 

Pierre from Orleans

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May 9, 2007
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I would argue that the people in charge of the situation don't understand the situation....and I am not complaining in saying that ….but I read about this a lot and one thing is evidently quite clear ….experts in the situation are changing their opinions rapidly

I think Canadians largely understand the need for distancing and we are a pretty compliant people so we are. That's all we understand

but so far, the situation as it is being explained by experts isn't materializing....anyone following this knows that the local health authority doc, Vera Etches, was a few weeks back calling for potentially 4,000 cases next week and 16,000 the week after....high side estimates for sure...but here we are a week after the 16,000 cases were supposed to exist and we are sitting on what? 500 cases locally?

everyone social distance. good. great. we got this. numbers are not materializing. that is a fact. what is not understood is why are they not materializing? and it's not lack testing. our per capita testing is 3rd highest amongst the 13th most infected countries....if more testing was the answer, all those other countries need more testing as badly as we do and their infection rates would also rise.
Why do you think the numbers aren't adding up?
 

JD1

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Sep 12, 2005
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Yes it is lack of testing. Ontario is barely testing anybody. Dr. Etches isn’t just talking about confirmed cases, she’s talking about anybody has has the virus. Tons of people probably have the virus but aren’t eligible for testing, so they are just isolating at home. Yes the numbers would be much lower than anticipated but the testing does not reflect the situation here at all.
it's not just testing

go look at the world o meters website...i'm looking at their data and I am presuming it is accurate

of the top 13 countries in the world for most infected cases, we are 4th on overall testing per capita yet our infection rate is 2nd lowest per capita. We certainly could be testing more, on that I agree. but certainly if other countries were testing per capita at our level, then their per capita infection rates would be going up.

@Pierre in Orleans - I don't know why the numbers aren't adding up....I've got no education whatsoever in the sciences / medical field. I just know what the data says. The only logical conclusion for me, is that the social distancing is working and quebec's higher infection rates are attributed to their earlier spring break and more returning travellers before the travel self isolation ting came in
 

DrSense

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Oct 4, 2017
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I get sports media have to fill their dailies with content, but this stuff is getting silly. The more and more this is looked at, the longer and longer it looks like until we have pro sports - even without fans. Even at this point, the Fall is looking highly doubtful. If the NHL can get a partial season in next year, I'll be pleased at this point. It's looking more and more like we could get a full year without sports until there is a vaccine. EF should probably check out this story from SI:
https://www.si.com/mlb/2020/04/10/sports-arent-coming-back-soon

That is probably a more likely scenario - what if there are no sports until the Spring of 2021? Do the NHL and NBA do a tourney of some sort over a few months to get something in? Do we have another draft without players playing between them, so scouts have to go on advance scouting? Or combine two drafts into one? Perhaps those are more likely and plausible scenarios.
 

Knave

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Mar 6, 2007
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Yes it is lack of testing. Ontario is barely testing anybody. Dr. Etches isn’t just talking about confirmed cases, she’s talking about anybody has has the virus. Tons of people probably have the virus but aren’t eligible for testing, so they are just isolating at home. Yes the numbers would be much lower than anticipated but the testing does not reflect the situation here at all.

Why aren't we seeing these people in the hospitals then? Dr Etches is referencing models that seem to have consistently over-estimated the number of cases. Nobody is saying the actual confirmed case number is perfect but between that and her 4,000 estimate weeks and weeks ago... it seems like the confirmed case number was closer to reality.
 

Larionov

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Feb 9, 2005
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When contemplating the whole, "no sports for 18 months" prediction, riddle me this - how many people here think that U.S. State Governors, particularly in the south, are going to allow the college football season to get wiped out? Anyone? Anyone? Bueller? How about the NFL? The odds of that happening are about zero. Football is the 400 pound gorilla of U.S. sports - as hockey fans we should be grateful, because if it hasn't happened already football will basically bulldoze a path back to fans in the stands and games taking place...
 

DrSense

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Oct 4, 2017
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When contemplating the whole, "no sports for 18 months" prediction, riddle me this - how many people here think that U.S. State Governors, particularly in the south, are going to allow the college football season to get wiped out? Anyone? Anyone? Bueller? How about the NFL? The odds of that happening are about zero. Football is the 400 pound gorilla of U.S. sports - as hockey fans we should be grateful, because if it hasn't happened already football will basically bulldoze a path back to fans in the stands and games taking place...

The article in SI addresses this. Are you really the politician who gave the green light for 18 months straight of 9/11 deaths? There is a much more legitimate argument made for commerce being re-started versus sports, but that doesn't mean NFL games will be held, even without fans. Those 30 NFL owners have influence, but even Trump can't open up the country at Easter like he wanted to. And the political influence of the ultra-rich has serious limitation during social austerity like times.

I think the best case is our health care system combined with some rapid testing that allows us to track leading indicators more (right now everything is lagging) will allow for us to open things up more so, yes, more people do continue to catch it at a moderate rate with some degree of slow social spread (and some deaths happen) but there is a bit of the herd mentality where our health care system doesn't get over-stretched, and we allow our populous to catch it a bit more in the name of keeping the economy going. Business and commerce are going to be even uglier in 3-4 months, so there will be political will to support this.
 

Larionov

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Feb 9, 2005
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That's what is happening now, though - slow spread, number of deaths low outside of a few hotspots like NYC, and the health care system not overwhelmed. That's what the National Post and CBC article referenced today - doctors were bracing for a surge of demand at intensive care units that simply hasn't materialized. For a few weeks now we were told to "brace for the surge", "the surge is coming" etc. Over one million Canadians returned home from abroad in the week of March 14-20, and since that time travel has slowed to a trickle and the economy has been largely shuttered. It is now April 12 - if a surge was coming, it would have happened by now. What is more likely is that the virus is not nearly as lethal in lower risk age groups as previously believed. It's understandable that the early, very thin data was bad - after all, the only data they had was out of either Wuhan or Italy.

If these trend lines continue in the same direction for the rest of April, it is going to be awfully hard to justify an ongoing shutdown of major public events based on a feared possible "second wave", when in fact the first wave wasn't nearly as bad as feared. By then, testing and tracing should be far more advanced.
 

DrSense

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Oct 4, 2017
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If these trend lines continue in the same direction for the rest of April, it is going to be awfully hard to justify an ongoing shutdown of major public events based on a feared possible "second wave", when in fact the first wave wasn't nearly as bad as feared. By then, testing and tracing should be far more advanced.

I think this has been the great news, that in Canada, we basically shut down before the US, and it was later getting here. Applause all around (sincerely).

And I do think things will open up in May in Canada to some degree, but I'm not sure that means kids are going back to school where 30 people are in the same room grabbing the same door knobs etc, restaurants fill back up or sporting events take place. I think there will be a prolonged middle ground that gets green lighted. I'm not sure what that looks like right now, but it's an ongoing discussion in many circles of how to open things back up to the next level. They'll probably hold that status in place for a few months, and then we'll see what happens from there. It is possible we have sports in September, I'm just not liking what I'm seeing given the US will have a staggered peak across different states with potentially 1000 still dying every day a month from now. That makes it especially tricky to launch a NA wide sport too.
 

Sens of Anarchy

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Jul 9, 2013
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So I guess Trump was right all along... What pandemic? You are all comfortable just going back to normal.. no more social distancing...Get back to the office / factory, work site ... ? Back to the restaurants and bars... Book an appointment at your favorite massage parlor?
 

Sens

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Jan 7, 2016
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There needs to be a middle ground

Covid-19 is coming in substantially lower then the projected best case scenarios
 

Sens

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Jan 7, 2016
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So I guess Trump was right all along... What pandemic? You are all comfortable just going back to normal.. no more social distancing...Get back to the office / factory, work site ... ? Back to the restaurants and bars... Book an appointment at your favorite massage parlor?

Trumps gearing up to give that command

 

Knave

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Mar 6, 2007
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His poll numbers are starting to reflect his incompetence so now it's time to open up the country even if tens of thousands die.
 

AchtzehnBaby

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Mar 28, 2013
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The New York Post reports that a COVID-19 vaccine "may be six months away, according to a researcher leading a team of scientists in England."I think there's a high chance that it will workbased on other things that we have done with this type of vaccine," Sarah Gilbert, a professor of virology at Oxford told The Times of London. "It's not just a hunch and as every week goes by we have more data to look at. I would go for 80 percent, that's my personal view.
Gilbert added that if they can find places that haven't imposed a lockdown, "we will get our efficacy results very quickly."

America and Israel have also reported encouraging progress on a vaccine. And in the Netherlands and Australia, researchers are testing the effectiveness of the BCG tuberculosis vaccine developed in the 1920s (with more tests being scheduled for Africa, and experiments in the U.K.) UPI reports researchers in the Netherlands "have started recruiting 1,000 healthcare workers, who are at high risk for COVID-19, in eight hospitals who will receive either the BCG vaccine or a placebo."

The Times of London reports that the U.K. government "signalled that it would be willing to fund the manufacture of millions of doses in advance" if the results of professor Gilbert's research looked promising. "This would allow it to be available immediately to the public if it were proven to work.

"With ministers struggling to find a strategy to exit the lockdown, long-term hopes of a return to normality rely on a vaccine."
 

foggyvisor

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Jun 28, 2018
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There needs to be a middle ground

Covid-19 is coming in substantially lower then the projected best case scenarios


Instead of acting like a bot and constantly posting random articles that support your "cure is worse than disease" narrative, it would be helpful if you explained your COVID19 strategy to us all.

The pragmatic nations, states, provinces etc seem to agree that an incremental lifting of physical distancing in combination with surveillance of both immunity levels and ICU vacancy rates is the way to go. And that, moving forward, localized outbreaks should trigger mandatory localized physical distancing over the months ahead. Of course, we cannot do any of this until widespread serological surveillance is possible.

Ok, so where do you disagree and what is your alternative solution?
 

Sens

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Jan 7, 2016
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Instead of acting like a bot and constantly posting random articles that support your "cure is worse than disease" narrative, it would be helpful if you explained your COVID19 strategy to us all.

The pragmatic nations, states, provinces etc seem to agree that an incremental lifting of physical distancing in combination with surveillance of both immunity levels and ICU vacancy rates is the way to go. And that, moving forward, localized outbreaks should trigger mandatory localized physical distancing over the months ahead. Of course, we cannot do any of this until widespread serological surveillance is possible.

Ok, so where do you disagree and what is your alternative solution?

I’d do it like Sweden
The Swedish Corona experiment – or everyone else’s?
 

DrSense

Registered User
Oct 4, 2017
783
899
In Ottawa news, one of the companies my organization works with just finally got approval for their rapid test, which has been an awesome pivot of their DNA analyzer.
Health Canada approves new rapid COVID-testing kits

And for those looking for a better understanding of testing, timelines and why caution is still preferred now, this is a great video. It will be interesting to see what happens in Austria, while also watching what happens with Sweden too. Obviously a lot more deaths per capita in Sweden, but perhaps they are taking their lumps sooner. It's actually a good thing to see other countries test different approaches, because it really does help us learn about to make our own way forward. As one of the last countries with a confirmed case, we were lucky in being better prepared than most because we got to observe what happened elsewhere.
 
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