NHL Players Tiers v1.0

[phillyjabroni]

I disagree with a lot of it, but it looks like some good work for the most part. Thanks for doing this

Do you disagree with where the players are ranked within the tiers or what players make up the tiers?

 

[phillyjabroni]

They produce pretty similarly in terms of efficiency. 2.03 P/60 for Granlund compared to 1.92 P/60 for Niederreiter.

*since 2016

Here is some visuals via Bill Comeau:

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

Do you disagree with where the players are ranked within the tiers or what players make up the tiers?

the latter. I think other than the guys I would move to different tiers, the players are mostly interchangeable within their tiers. I think ranking players this way is a lot better than a normal list

 

[jaric1862]

I disagree heavily with a number of things on this list. Not even going to write it all out because it would take too long

 

[phillyjabroni]

the latter. I think other than the guys I would move to different tiers, the players are mostly interchangeable within their tiers. I think ranking players this way is a lot better than a normal list

I agree with your point that this is better than outright ranking players. I find that people who disagree with these lists mostly disagree with the players ranked within the tiers as well as specific players not being in certain tiers. I think it's difficult to construct a list that doesn't fall into the recency bias trap of valuing players based off of this seasons sample (i.e Thomas Chabot).

 

[phillyjabroni]

I disagree heavily with a number of things on this list. Not even going to write it all out because it would take too long

Could you give some examples of specific players that you would remove from lists or add into this? Do you take exception to the players ranked within the tiers or the players that make up the tiers?

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

I agree with your point that this is better than outright ranking players. I find that people who disagree with these lists mostly disagree with the players ranked within the tiers as well as specific players not being in certain tiers. I think it's difficult to construct a list that doesn't fall into the recency bias trap of valuing players based off of this seasons sample (i.e Thomas Chabot).

Well you're going back since 2016 right? are you weighing every season equally, or placing greater value on recent years?

 

[phillyjabroni]

Well you're going back since 2016 right? are you weighing every season equally, or placing greater value on recent years?

There isn't a set formula, but I try to take the more recent years more strongly than I do with the later years. I use the 2016-2019 data as a way to aggregate underlying metrics and then make comparisons to their tangible results (i.e ixGF to goals).

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

They produce pretty similarly in terms of efficiency. 2.03 P/60 for Granlund compared to 1.92 P/60 for Niederreiter.

*since 2016

Like I said, actual production.

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

There isn't a set formula, but I try to take the more recent years more strongly than I do with the later years. I use the 2016-2019 data as a way to aggregate underlying metrics and then make comparisons to their tangible results (i.e ixGF to goals).

I might suggest placing a bit more weight on current performance, but I think other than that your criteria is pretty good from what I can tell. Are you taking QoC and QoT into account as well?

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

the latter. I think other than the guys I would move to different tiers, the players are mostly interchangeable within their tiers. I think ranking players this way is a lot better than a normal list

I would very much like to trade you Nino Niederreiter for Mitch Marner, since they are in the same tier and all.

 

[Feniggles]

Wins > Analytics

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

I would very much like to trade you Nino Niederreiter for Mitch Marner, since they are in the same tier and all.

Mitch is one of the guys I'd move up, sorry.

 

[dechire]

Tyler Seguin and Jamie Benn should not be 3 tiers apart and if they must then Seguin should not be the lower of the two.

 

[7even]

Morgan Reilly

Triggered

 

[Backcheckmonster3]

Tarasenko ranked 2 tiers ahead of Rantanen!? OP disqualified.
Niederreiter in a tier above Granlund? Generally a useless list.

 

[Machinehead]

1)You can't do the whole "analytics" thing and have Kreider outside the top 29 left wings. You'll be hearing from my lawyer.

2)TIL Kevin Shattenkirk is the best player on the Rangers. His head will be pleased.

 

[jetsforever]

The below chart does not include rookies or goaltenders. Any sort of questions on my list or tweaks are welcomed and encouraged below.

v1.0: Monday, November 26, 2018.
View attachment 158455

Pretty decent list, although there are some controversial choices (e.g. Tarasenko)

 

[phillyjabroni]

I might suggest placing a bit more weight on current performance, but I think other than that your criteria is pretty good from what I can tell. Are you taking QoC and QoT into account as well?

QoC generally doesn't matter in the long run. QoT is more of a context way to analyze how a player is doing. I use it the same way I use PDO or ZSR. It has more impact than QoC.

I would very much like to trade you Nino Niederreiter for Mitch Marner, since they are in the same tier and all.

Simply being in the same tier does not mean they have the same trade value. Erik Karlsson doesn't have more trade value than Seth Jones or Morgan Reilly does, for example.

Tyler Seguin and Jamie Benn should not be 3 tiers apart and if they must then Seguin should not be the lower of the two.

The tiers are by position relative.

Tarasenko ranked 2 tiers ahead of Rantanen!? OP disqualified.
Niederreiter in a tier above Granlund? Generally a useless list.

I'm not completely sold on Rantanen yet. Maybe at the end of the year we can analyze his play. He currently has a PDO of 106.71, so I would hold off before clamoring for his rank. I can see the argument for Granlund in a higher tier.

 

[NoNecksCurse]

no ryan johansen or mattias ekholm? i like the effort and yadada. but disagree with quite a bit without even really searching hard.

 

[phillyjabroni]

no ryan johansen or mattias ekholm? i like the effort and yadada. but disagree with quite a bit without even really searching hard.

Mattias Ekholm is in there. Ryan Johansen is meh. Not a fan of the analytics community.

 

[dangomon]

If you want to argue Lindholm is better than Reilly sure, but I don't see a way he's a whole tier above him.

 

[NoNecksCurse]

Mattias Ekholm is in there. Ryan Johansen is meh. Not a fan of the analytics community.

i am on my phone and it stops at 29?

Johansen has probably the best possession numbers on the preds, who lead the league in points. great faceoff win percentage and is nearly PPG. he has been arguably our best player this year.

 

[phillyjabroni]

i am on my phone and it stops at 29?

Johansen has probably the best possession numbers on the preds, who lead the league in points. great faceoff win percentage and is nearly PPG. he has been arguably our best player this year.

His numbers this year are pretty solid in terms of puck possession, looks like he is first on the team. However, simply being the best on one's team does not mean you automatically are one of the best at your position. Faceoffs have minimal impact on game results on a macro level.

 

[phillyjabroni]

If you want to argue Lindholm is better than Reilly sure, but I don't see a way he's a whole tier above him.

Reilly is closer in caliber to those in his tier. Lindholm is closer to the guys in his tier.