NHL News/Notes XVIII

[LadyStanley]

Figures

 

[JeremyTB]

Dubas has literally cut the Leafs window in half. When they signed JT there window was like 8 years and now a year later they have to win the Stanley Cup now. After this season ends they will be about $10 million over the cap due to the LTIR players coming off the books.If the Cap goes up by $2 million that will be the used to re-sign Dermott. Barrie's,Ceci's,Muzzin's, and Hyman's contracts all come off the books which adds up to about $13 Million. Which means they will only be about $3 or $4 million under the cap with no Barrie or Muzzin and still needing to sign a couple of forwards on top of that. And then a couple of years after that they will need to re-sign Rielly and Andersen.

 

[Barrie22]

Dubas has literally cut the Leafs window in half. When they signed JT there window was like 8 years and now a year later they have to win the Stanley Cup now. After this season ends they will be about $10 million over the cap due to the LTIR players coming off the books.If the Cap goes up by $2 million that will be the used to re-sign Dermott. Barrie's,Ceci's,Muzzin's, and Hyman's contracts all come off the books which adds up to about $13 Million. Which means they will only be about $3 or $4 million under the cap with no Barrie or Muzzin and still needing to sign a couple of forwards on top of that. And then a couple of years after that they will need to re-sign Rielly and Andersen.

9 players and 17 million (if the cap goes up 2 million next year).

 

[JeremyTB]

9 players and 17 million (if the cap goes up 2 million next year).

And I think that's just with one Dman signed right?

 

[Barrie22]

And I think that's just with one Dman signed right?

Yup. They would need to sign 5-6 defensemen (depending on extras). 2-3 forwards (depending on extras). And a back up goalie.

 

[LadyStanley]

Spurgeon re-signed with Wild. 7 years

 

[Quid Pro Clowe]

When people ranted and raved about how bad Burns and Vlasic's deals were, I laughed. You knew a year or two later inferior players would start getting even more than that, but people are always in a hurry to overreact.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

When people ranted and raved about how bad Burns and Vlasic's deals were, I laughed. You knew a year or two later inferior players would start getting even more than that, but people are always in a hurry to overreact.

Vlasic’s deal was and is still horrible.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

Vlasic’s deal was and is still horrible.

I think people are making too big a deal out of it.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

I think people are making too big a deal out of it.

I feel like it was an overpayment relative to the market at the time of signing, but I haven't taken a deep look into what the market was at the time to see how accurate that is.

In terms of value that the player will actually provide over the length of the contract, it's up there with the worst contracts in the league.

By the numbers: A look at the 10 worst contracts in hockey

4. Marc-Edouard Vlasic, SJS
Contract: $7M x seven years
Surplus Value: -$44.7M
Positive Value Probability: 7.6%

While the new Marc-Edouard Vlasic winds up on the best contracts list, the old one winds up on the opposite end. Vlasic was still a reasonably strong defender just two-or-three seasons ago, but 2018-19 was extremely unkind to him. It was like he fell off a statistical cliff.

Last year, Vlasic was the only Sharks defender with a negative expected goals differential, he was second last defensively, and by actual goals only his partner, Justin Braun, was worse. The argument for Vlasic is that he plays difficult minutes, but those were dialled back last season when he struggled. His underlying numbers were fine early on in the season with Karlsson and in the playoffs with Burns, so it’s possible that a new partner (read: not Braun) can rejuvenate his career, but with seven years left there are now legitimate concerns about how well Vlasic will age. You probably also don’t want to be paying that much for a player whose play is dependent on his partner.

A bounce-back should be expected next year, but going up to the level commensurate of his paycheck is a tall order. He’s paid like a number two defender, one who should provide 1.6 wins of value next season and 8.2 in the six seasons after. That’s close to where he was at in 2016-17 and 2017-18, but his age and performance last season makes me skeptical he can reach that point again.

I don't buy this analysis as perfect by any means, but I do fell like the conclusion here is pretty accurate.

 

[Lebanezer]

I feel like it was an overpayment relative to the market at the time of signing, but I haven't taken a deep look into what the market was at the time to see how accurate that is.

In terms of value that the player will actually provide over the length of the contract, it's up there with the worst contracts in the league.

By the numbers: A look at the 10 worst contracts in hockey



I don't buy this analysis as perfect by any means, but I do fell like the conclusion here is pretty accurate.

I agree with most of this, but there are a couple factors that make me wonder if Vlasic can bounce back. First, Vlasic has clearly regressed, and due to that regression his stick and positioning were no longer so elite that they could make up for his inability to break the puck out well. When that happened and he was still paired with Braun that pairing was completely incapable of getting the puck out of their zone with possession. So they were just bad all season. In the playoffs when Vlasic played with Burns he improved. Perhaps a full season with Burns will help him. Secondly, I’m hoping the system changes so they play better teams defense. Obviously that probably isn’t enough to make his contract more palatable, but it might help for a couple years.

 

[LadyStanley]

So no need to panic Sunday with no news.

 

[Quid Pro Clowe]

Vlasic’s deal was and is still horrible.

It isn't great, but it won't end up being as bad as some think.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

I agree with most of this, but there are a couple factors that make me wonder if Vlasic can bounce back. First, Vlasic has clearly regressed, and due to that regression his stick and positioning were no longer so elite that they could make up for his inability to break the puck out well. When that happened and he was still paired with Braun that pairing was completely incapable of getting the puck out of their zone with possession. So they were just bad all season. In the playoffs when Vlasic played with Burns he improved. Perhaps a full season with Burns will help him. Secondly, I’m hoping the system changes so they play better teams defense. Obviously that probably isn’t enough to make his contract more palatable, but it might help for a couple years.

Yeah, the playoffs definitely gave me a lot of hope for Vlasic's contract after I had pretty much given up on it. He also had already improved with Heed although not to the degree that he did once the playoffs came around.

I do think he will end up providing better value than only 3 other guys in the NHL over the course of his contract like that article suggests, but I definitely don't think it will end up providing positive value.

It isn't great, but it won't end up being as bad as some think.

It's pretty tough to say, given the amount of things that could change around the league going forward. But right now, it's 8.6% of next year's cap, spent on a player who was barely a positive value player last season.

It will almost certainly end up worse than any of the contracts that Toronto signed.

 

[Barrie22]

Mcovoy 3 years 4.9 per.

 

[LadyStanley]

Preseason hockey on NHLN today. 1:30pm PT.

 

[LadyStanley]

Good news, for now

 

[Fistfullofbeer]

Thats nuts.

 

[one2gamble]

People have to remember that some of vlasics contract is back pay for the previous contract. It's probably just 2 years longer than it should have been

 

[LadyStanley]

Report: Winnipeg Jets' Dustin Byfuglien is pondering his NHL future
The Jets star blueliner was granted a leave of absence from the team last week.


Kinda thought that might be the case

 

[Mattb124]

I hope Buf is ok, but damn that Jets D is going to be bad in the off chance that he decides to retire.

 

[Fistfullofbeer]

I hope Buf is ok, but damn that Jets D is going to be bad in the off chance that he decides to retire.

Seriously. No Trouba, Myers or Buff. Thats tough.

 

[The Nemesis]

Silly thing, but CBC has revived its hockey/figure skating competition show, Battle of the Blades. It'll start airing tomorrow on CBC (I don't know if they'll make the content available internationally)

The basic concept of the show is like Dancing with the Stars, if the dancers were figure skaters and the "stars" were former B or C-tier NHLers (and a couple of elite women's players now), with their winnings going to charities they select. I don't watch figure skating ever, but I watched this the first time around and it was usually really fun. This year's crop of contestants are PJ Stock, Bruno Gervais, Colton Orr, Brian McGrattan, Sheldon Kennedy, Amanda Kessel, and Natalie Spooner.

Ex-Shark Scott Thornton was the series' last winner in 2012. Claude Lemieux also competed in 2009 not long after retiring from the Sharks and the NHL.


https://www.cbc.ca/mediacentre/program/battle-of-the-blades

 

[Lebanezer]

What was Thomas Chabot doing? He cost himself millions signing that deal. Every other RFA out there is getting signing bonuses left and right and he got none. Why would he do Melnyk a favor like that?

 

[LadyStanley]

Awesome