NHL move to Winnipeg 'a step back'

[TheMoreYouKnow]

Mod Edit: The quoted post was deleted. LeftCoast

The truth is indeed very complicated and it doesn't end with "it's the owners' fault" which is the official fan-approved story of the Atlanta faction here. Not to say the owners weren't suboptimal but the disinterest shown to the Thrashers by the vast majority of Georgians is so obvious that it takes a special sort of sophistry common to people with emotional blinders to deny it.

 

[BadHammy*]

Winnipeg is not viable long term and the league knows it. If this does go down, it's a short-term, profit taking cash grab and will ultimately lead to really big problems within 15 or so years. Youth hockey and interest in Canada has apparently been declining substantially the last 5-10 years and the loonie is bound to fall down a bit eventually, aka recipe for Winnipeg becoming K.C. in 2024.

 

[MayDay]

That's the whole US, not just one state. Hockey just doesn't work in the US like they do in Canada when people breath and live for hockey.

Not true. Most people in the northeast don't care much about college sports. At least not nearly to the extent that people care in the Southeast and Midwest.

I'd put the NHL ahead of NCAA sports in many (if not most) northeast US cities.

 

[BadHammy*]

Not true. Most people in the northeast don't care much about college sports. At least not nearly to the extent that people care in the Southeast and Midwest.

I'd put the NHL ahead of NCAA sports in many (if not most) northeast US cities.

I must agree to a large extent. Moreover, in the SE and SW there was literally no hockey, not pros, not HS or college teams etc. There weren't even adult rec leagues in most cities that had an ice rink. But the growth in children and adults playing since the mid 90s is staggering and is likely a continuing trend, e.g. pro teams will generally survive longer term.

 

[manisback121]

Much do they forget that hockey was invented to fill boxing arenas: boston garden, madison square garden, chicago stadium.

 

[LeftCoast]

I am from the Peg and i empathize with the Atlanta fans allot.......been there done that!

LeftCoast i am curious about your bolded statement above....why do you feel it is inevitable TNSE will have losses initially and have to stabilize? are you talking the cost of relocation (move etc)?

I'm assuming there will be losses in the first year because it take more than 30 days or so to build a season ticket base. I also figure that if Chipman et. al. want to build a winner, they are very likely going to add a lot of salary in the off-season.

 

[TheMoreYouKnow]

Winnipeg is not viable long term and the league knows it. If this does go down, it's a short-term, profit taking cash grab and will ultimately lead to really big problems within 15 or so years. Youth hockey and interest in Canada has apparently been declining substantially the last 5-10 years and the loonie is bound to fall down a bit eventually, aka recipe for Winnipeg becoming K.C. in 2024.

Youth hockey participation in Canada has fallen for decades because it comes down from being a near exclusive activity for kids to being merely one of many options and at the same time the demands placed at kids and parents in junior hockey have grown a lot.

On a reverse trend, youth hockey has grown in non-traditional areas because it is pretty easy to grow from zero to still incredibly marginal numbers whilst showing extreme growth rates in the process.

This is comparable to economic growth rate comparisons between third world economies and industrial countries.

 

[Tekneek]

Mod Edit: The quoted post was deleted. LeftCoast

The truth is indeed very complicated and it doesn't end with "it's the owners' fault" which is the official fan-approved story of the Atlanta faction here. Not to say the owners weren't suboptimal but the disinterest shown to the Thrashers by the vast majority of Georgians is so obvious that it takes a special sort of sophistry common to people with emotional blinders to deny it.

Perhaps, but that was not what we were discussing. I was talking about hockey in the Atlanta area, which is more than just the Thrashers. The interest in the sport has never been higher. Not so obvious to people in far away places, but it is the truth nonetheless.

Also, to claim it was at zero before the Thrashers came to town is ridiculous. I spent a lot of the 80s playing hockey as I grew up, all done after the Flames had already left town and there were NO professional hockey teams around.

 

[Pure West]

What could have been, we will never know. I am gonna say it is definitely not a step back, not because Atlanta loses its team, but because Winnipeg is in the league now. As a Grizzlies fan, I view the Thrashers similar to the Grizzlies, where they were never really given a chance, even if you were never quite as terrible as the old Grizz.

On the Winnipeg note, you are going back to a market where they don't have to work themselves to death to establish the sport, there is no competition, there's a fairly new downtown arena, you have a robust Canadian dollar. Most importantly you have the richest man in Canada and a guy who ran one of the most successful AHL franchises as owners. This is a recipe for success, and this market/ownership team needed to be involved in the NHL. Unfortunately for Atlanta, there were no real credible, wealthy and capable ownership groups, not to mention no control over the arena.

It would be a step back if you think Atlanta is a better market than Winnipeg, the argument is that if there is a winner, a southern market will be successful. Perhaps, but when people say Nashville, Tampa Bay and Carolina as these fantastic successes they are forgetting that they are STILL small markets even with successful on ice teams. They don't contribute to revenue sharing, and in fact still receive it. Dallas really seemed to be the only 90s era expansion/relo team that became a success and also a big revenue generating team. I doubt Winnipeg will be a revenue sharing contributor either, but I think we can project that it will be at least as successful as other southern "successes". Only time will tell I guess.

 

[5 Minute Major]

I don't think it's a step back at all. While there are some good fans in Atlanta, there just aren't nearly enough of them.

This shouldn't hurt any television deals at all. I would be willing to bet that television rating were very low in the Atlanta area for NBC and Versus games to begin with, even with Atlanta having a team in the league.

 

[Gump Hasek]

Youth hockey participation in Canada has fallen for decades because it comes down from being a near exclusive activity for kids to being merely one of many options and at the same time the demands placed at kids and parents in junior hockey have grown a lot.

Youth hockey participation in Canada has not "fallen for decades" as you claim....
http://www.hockeycanada.ca/index.php/ci_id/23952/la_id/1.htm

As per the most recent data...
Male registration in Canada in 99/00 - 461,946
Male registration in Canada in 09/10 - 491,453

The female numbers are growing at a more rapid pace.

To summarize, hockey registrations in Canada are rising in both categories, not falling.

 

[molsonmuscle360]

Winnipeg is not viable long term and the league knows it. If this does go down, it's a short-term, profit taking cash grab and will ultimately lead to really big problems within 15 or so years. Youth hockey and interest in Canada has apparently been declining substantially the last 5-10 years and the loonie is bound to fall down a bit eventually, aka recipe for Winnipeg becoming K.C. in 2024.

Why exactly would Canada's dollar go back down? Our dollar is tied to the price of oil since these days it's one of our biggest exports and the price of oil is going nowhere.

I am really surprised the mods are allowing this thread at all though. I've been reading through it and all this thread has are people trashing Winnipeg.

 

[Puckschmuck*]

The anti-Winnipeg rhetoric in this thread is very entertaining. I'm going to make a point to come back to this thread at the end of every single year to get a good laugh at other peoples doubts when it will be proven, year after year after year, that we are indeed a viable small market due to the intelligence and savy business sense of TNSE.

It will be a great annual tradition.

 

[Koss]

It's not so much The Loonies appreciation as it is the US$ collapse. It's not coming back anytime soon. In fact it's inevitable that the dollar won't appreciate until the debt problems are fixed.

 

[peter sullivan]

I'm assuming there will be losses in the first year because it take more than 30 days or so to build a season ticket base. I also figure that if Chipman et. al. want to build a winner, they are very likely going to add a lot of salary in the off-season.

the season ticket base will be built in 3 days, not 30.

with the lowest payroll in the NHL they could add and still be fine...

this thread might as well be titled, now that winnipeg has a team we have to change our anti-winnipeg rhetoric from they will never get a team to the team wont last.

will simply make the beer all that much sweeter opening night.

 

[OthmarAmmann]

Winnipeg is not viable long term and the league knows it. If this does go down, it's a short-term, profit taking cash grab and will ultimately lead to really big problems within 15 or so years. Youth hockey and interest in Canada has apparently been declining substantially the last 5-10 years and the loonie is bound to fall down a bit eventually, aka recipe for Winnipeg becoming K.C. in 2024.

There's the dollar thing again. I'm not certain what you're expecting in terms of economic growth, but you seem to be overoptimistic. Closing the current budget deficit will be difficult, and entitlements will drive the budget further and further into the red going forward. A very significant issue the USD faces is the very real possibility that it could lose its status as the global reserve currency (not to be replaced by the Euro or yuan or any other but just that the global economy evolves away from a central reserve currency).

I'd say its more likely that the USD is worth 0.85 CAD within 10 years than the inverse.

 

[TheMoreYouKnow]

Youth hockey participation in Canada has not "fallen for decades" as you claim....
http://www.hockeycanada.ca/index.php/ci_id/23952/la_id/1.htm

As per the most recent data...
Male registration in Canada in 99/00 - 461,946
Male registration in Canada in 09/10 - 491,453

The female numbers are growing at a more rapid pace.

To summarize, hockey registrations in Canada are rising in both categories, not falling.

I should correct myself then, they were falling for a long time.

 

[cbcwpg]

Winnipeg is not viable long term and the league knows it. If this does go down, it's a short-term, profit taking cash grab and will ultimately lead to really big problems within 15 or so years. Youth hockey and interest in Canada has apparently been declining substantially the last 5-10 years and the loonie is bound to fall down a bit eventually, aka recipe for Winnipeg becoming K.C. in 2024.

If Winnipeg is not viable as u say, why would 29 owners let The Thrashers move instead of folding the team and save everyone a lot of time and money. Seems to me that if someone who is rich enough to buy the whole NHL and still have money left over for dinner wants to put a team in Winnipeg, you might want to admit he knows more about what he's doing than you do.

 

[Killion]

I'm assuming there will be losses in the first year because it take more than 30 days or so to build a season ticket base. I also figure that if Chipman et. al. want to build a winner, they are very likely going to add a lot of salary in the off-season.

True enough. Winnipeg is very much a boutique market playing in the bigs', they'll have to be penny wise on the hockey side however their concert & events' bookings are such that I wouldnt be overly concerned that they wont succeed and become a model franchise. Im ecstatic for Winnipeg, however, I wouldve' much preferred they receive a team through expansion, as I really cant look at the Thrashers moving as anything but a huge loss to the NHL in terms of its footprint in the South, the size & importance of that very particular market, the credibility it gave to the league as a whole.

 

[Buck Aki Berg]

How is Winnipeg objectively that much worse of a market than Ottawa? Yes the arena revenues are going to be lower but Ottawa isn't exactly a glamourous destination either.

Hey, how dare yo-- ahhh, you're right.....

 

[OthmarAmmann]

Not true. Most people in the northeast don't care much about college sports. At least not nearly to the extent that people care in the Southeast and Midwest.

I'd put the NHL ahead of NCAA sports in many (if not most) northeast US cities.

I don't see that being the case in Manhattan.

 

[OthmarAmmann]

If Winnipeg is not viable as u say, why would 29 owners let The Thrashers move instead of folding the team and save everyone a lot of time and money. Seems to me that if someone who is rich enough to buy the whole NHL and still have money left over for dinner wants to put a team in Winnipeg, you might want to admit he knows more about what he's doing than you do.

cuz of the relo fee and the phoenix situation I'd guess

 

[Huis Clos*]

That's the whole US, not just one state. Hockey just doesn't work in the US like they do in Canada when people breath and live for hockey.

Canadian arrogance.

 

[cbcwpg]

cuz of the relo fee and the phoenix situation I'd guess

You could be right, but to move a team from Atlanta to Winnipeg ( a market that will ultimately fail according to some people ) just to get $60M when you could potentially move it to Southern Ontario and get hundreds of millions, seems a bit shortsighted and risky if we are to believe it will fail.

 

[Alex The Loyal]

I must agree to a large extent. Moreover, in the SE and SW there was literally no hockey, not pros, not HS or college teams etc. There weren't even adult rec leagues in most cities that had an ice rink. But the growth in children and adults playing since the mid 90s is staggering and is likely a continuing trend, e.g. pro teams will generally survive longer term.

If youth hockey numbers were falling that's probably because of the recession. Hockey aint cheap

Youth hockey participation in Canada has not "fallen for decades" as you claim....
http://www.hockeycanada.ca/index.php/ci_id/23952/la_id/1.htm

As per the most recent data...
Male registration in Canada in 99/00 - 461,946
Male registration in Canada in 09/10 - 491,453

The female numbers are growing at a more rapid pace.

To summarize, hockey registrations in Canada are rising in both categories, not falling.