Prospect Info: NHL Entry Draft Discussion Thread - Looking Ahead to 2020

[LeafsOHLRangers98]

Curious to see who you think would go in the top 5 in other drafts, because I don't see the draft being that deep. There are maybe 7 guys I think could go top 5 in an average draft after Askarov was iffy and Lundell was injured, and ~15 who could go top 10 in a normal draft, which is also not really that abnormal for most drafts.

The way I see it, the top 8 is above average, then there is a bit of a drop off to a few guys like Perfetti and Lundell who may be in their own tier in the top 12-15-ish range and may be a bit above average too for that range. Then once you get into the late teens or 20's, I think it's mostly average. A few interesting guys with high risk-reward potential, and then a bunch of the solid top 6/top 4 prospects you expect in the mid-late 1st into the early 2nd round.

Depending on how teams draft above them, the Leafs may get their hands on one of the remaining interesting prospects from the early 2nd round range like they did last year with Robertson, but in general, the guys projected in our range are, at best, nothing special.

I should have said weaker drafts instead of just "other".

Guys like Perfetti, Rossi, even guys like Lapierre, Barron, and Gunler I feel could have sneaked their way into the top 5 of the 2012 (Yakupov) or 2017 (Hischer) draft, maybe even 2014 (Ekblad) when the top 10 was either great or "meh" for the most part.

Could just be looking at it in hindsight but based on how good some of these kids look I wouldn't be surprised of they would have done better in other drafts.

 

[93LEAFS]

Seems to happen every year with the Knights. They bring along younger players slower than most JR teams, usually due to how competitive a team they always are. Foudy, Formenton, Thomas, Dvorak, Jones I think could have all had better "statistically" years in their draft year then they did.

Dvorak was injured, and Max Jones got 2nd line duty and its not like he's an example of success. Foudy and Formenton are both fairly limited players. They provide a valued skill set, but they aren't ideal 1st liners.

If you are good enough, you will play under Dale. Regardless of age. Marner moved from the 4th line to the 2nd line/1st PP in a season they were trying to win the Memorial Cup at 16. Sam Gagner was a 1st line center in his draft year at 17, Max Domi got 1st line minutes his draft year, Victor Mete got top 4 minutes at 17.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

In case people want a second opinion on the goalie rankings, here are mine vs. where they ranked on their list:

Top 45
1) Yaroslav Askarov - 1EU

Top 75
2) Jan Bednar - 2EU
3) Nick Malik - 5EU
4) Joel Blomqvist - 3EU

Top 125
5) Drew Commisso - 2NA
6) Nico Daws - 1NA
7) Calle Clang - 4EU
8) Hugo Ollas - 6EU

Late Round/Undrafted
9) Joseph Tynan - NR NA
10) Dylan Garand - 7NA
11) Samuel Hlavaj - 3NA
12) Brock Gould - 4NA
13) Bryan Thomson - 5NA
14) Jesper Vikman - 8EU
15) Johan Strom - NR EU

Bold indicates D+1 goalies. If they are not on the list, I don't think they are worth the pick, even though you could make the case for another handful of goalies who will likely end up getting drafted.

Based on this, if you are the Leafs, I think you are holding out hope for one of Commisso, Clang or Ollas with one of your 4ths. Nothing against Daws, but OA goalies are finnicky and I think a project we can stash away for a few years is better for our timeline than a guy we need to sign by the end of next year. If we really like Malik on SSM, we may take him with our 3rd, but there is a chance he could fall to one of our 4ths depending on his OHL performance.

If all else fails, there is some promise with those late round guys. Tynan would be higher if not for his injury, and I think it is insulting that they left him off altogether because of that. Would have easily been the best DY CHL goalie this year if not for that (sorry Garand). Garand's problem is that he is small. If he was even an inch or two taller, he'd probably be in the top 75. The rest are either on mediocre/poor teams and are doing decent (Gould, Strom, Vikman) or are on good teams and are not getting much playing time (Thomson). The Leafs could use a goalie this year, but with the draft being somewhat iffy for them, I wouldn't force the pick either.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

I should have said weaker drafts instead of just "other".

Guys like Perfetti, Rossi, even guys like Lapierre, Barron, and Gunler I feel could have sneaked their way into the top 5 of the 2012 (Yakupov) or 2017 (Hischer) draft, maybe even 2014 (Ekblad) when the top 10 was either great or "meh" for the most part.

Could just be looking at it in hindsight but based on how good some of these kids look I wouldn't be surprised of they would have done better in other drafts.

Rossi, maybe. The rest, definitely not. Perfetti will be, but the other three may not even be, top 20 in this draft. This draft is not that good...

The Canadian and CHL crop is better than it has been in a little while, but it has also been sagging for a little while so that's not necessarily saying this is a special class. The top 8 is really good, but otherwise it drops off fast. USA has a weak class. Finland is not much better. Russia has a good crop of late 1st/early 2nd round types and a few interesting guys later on but generally only has maybe 15 guys really worth looking at. Switzerland has practically nothing, but Germany/Austria make up for it. Czechia and Slovakia are producing their norm, with maybe a little bit higher quality talent than usual. Sweden has good balance throughout, like they always do, and it may be a little bit better than average draft for them. So really, besides that CHL crop (which is not good enough to make up for the other weaknesses), this draft is average at best. CHL may make it slightly above average, but definitely not worthy of the hype it is generating. The goalie and defense crops are weak. There is some good high end centers, but after the first couple of rounds it drops off a lot too. It's really a winger draft.

 

[93LEAFS]

I should have said weaker drafts instead of just "other".

Guys like Perfetti, Rossi, even guys like Lapierre, Barron, and Gunler I feel could have sneaked their way into the top 5 of the 2012 (Yakupov) or 2017 (Hischer) draft, maybe even 2014 (Ekblad) when the top 10 was either great or "meh" for the most part.

Could just be looking at it in hindsight but based on how good some of these kids look I wouldn't be surprised of they would have done better in other drafts.

Lapierre is a perimeter player who just suffered his 3rd concussion in 3 years. Barron seems really overvalued if anyone is entertaining taking him top 5 in any draft. Gunler has character redflags that are pushing him down.

 

[hockeynorth]

Lapierre is a perimeter player who just suffered his 3rd concussion in 3 years. Barron seems really overvalued if anyone is entertaining taking him top 5 in any draft. Gunler has character redflags that are pushing him down.

Agree with both of the first two but I think someone is getting a massive steal with Gunler if he drops

 

[93LEAFS]

Agree with both of the first two but I think someone is getting a massive steal with Gunler if he drops

I don't know enough about the character concerns to make a statement one way or the other.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Agree with both of the first two but I think someone is getting a massive steal with Gunler if he drops

He's a good player, but even with the character concerns, I am not sure he's a top 20 player in this draft. His defensive game has question marks and he's an October birthday so he is an older player in the draft too. He's a typical boom-bust prospect who could make a team in the 20's either look like geniuses or complete idiots.

 

[hockeynorth]

He's a good player, but even with the character concerns, I am not sure he's a top 20 player in this draft. His defensive game has question marks and he's an October birthday so he is an older player in the draft too. He's a typical boom-bust prospect who could make a team in the 20's either look like geniuses or complete idiots.

true I just loveee that tool kit though right now for sure I'd have:

Lafrenniere
Byfield
Lundell
Stutzle
Raymond
Holtz
Rossi
Drysdale
Askarov
Perfetti
Holloway

all ahead of him, though maybe close to Perfetti or Holloway at the end

 

[SeaOfBlue]

true I just loveee that tool kit though right now for sure I'd have:

Lafrenniere
Byfield
Lundell
Stutzle
Raymond
Holtz
Rossi
Drysdale
Askarov
Perfetti
Holloway

all ahead of him, though maybe close to Perfetti or Holloway at the end

Well that right there is pretty much the top 11 in this draft... Everyone except Lundell, Perfetti and Holloway are the top 8 and have separated themselves from the pack, but Perfetti, Lundell, Holloway and maybe a few others in the top 15 have more separation before I think you get to Gunler's tier. If Gunler had fewer red flags, he would be in that top 15 conversation.

 

[hockeynorth]

Well that right there is pretty much the top 11 in this draft... Everyone except Lundell, Perfetti and Holloway are the top 8 and have separated themselves from the pack, but Perfetti, Lundell, Holloway and maybe a few others in the top 15 have more separation before I think you get to Gunler's tier. If Gunler had fewer red flags, he would be in that top 15 conversation.

I have lundell high up there

 

[SeaOfBlue]

I have lundell high up there

Not dominating Liiga, currently suffering from a major injury, questionable upside compared to the other guys at the top and a lack of WJC U20 this year (once again due to injury) hurts his stock. Also an older birthday. I used to have him top 5 before his injury, but after his injury, it is just a little bit too much going against him. He's still a very talented player and one who could easily find himself among the first taken after the top 8 (or even over an Askarov if teams don't need a goalie), and may be one of the most polished and complete players in this draft.

 

[hockeynorth]

Not dominating Liiga, currently suffering from a major injury, questionable upside compared to the other guys at the top and a lack of WJC U20 this year (once again due to injury) hurts his stock. Also an older birthday. I used to have him top 5 before his injury, but after his injury, it is just a little bit too much going against him. He's still a very talented player and one who could easily find himself among the first taken after the top 8 (or even over an Askarov if teams don't need a goalie), and may be one of the most polished and complete players in this draft.

Thats all fair, thanks for the input!

 

[SeaOfBlue]

https://www.tsn.ca/craig-s-list-tim-stutzle-marco-rossi-climb-nhl-draft-rankings-1.1427810

Button has posted his latest rankings. Personally, I think they are really bad, but I will let you make that decision for yourselves.

 

[93LEAFS]

https://www.tsn.ca/craig-s-list-tim-stutzle-marco-rossi-climb-nhl-draft-rankings-1.1427810

Button has posted his latest rankings. Personally, I think they are really bad, but I will let you make that decision for yourselves.

The Lapierre ranking is crazy at this point.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

The Lapierre ranking is crazy at this point.

Perfetti at 4 is laughable too.

 

[93LEAFS]

Perfetti at 4 is laughable too.

Not really, I can at least see that argument. People can disagree with it, but I can why people would prefer Perfetti there. He needs to play faster and improve his skating. But, he has the potential to be the middle-ground between Marner and Skinner but with slightly worse skating.

Poirier and Barron are much more egregious.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Not really, I can at least see that argument. People can disagree with it, but I can why people would prefer Perfetti there. He needs to play faster and improve his skating. But, he has the potential to be the middle-ground between Marner and Skinner but with slightly worse skating.

Poirier and Barron are much more egregious.

Barron should be much lower. May not even be 1st round anymore. Hurt + poor play on a team that should have been far more competitive than it was this year. Poirier at 18 more reasonable than Perfetti at 4 for me though. In a draft with a weaker top end, I can see having him 4th is reasonable. But over Raymond, Holtz, Drysdale, Rossi and Askarov? Not a chance at this point. Maybe Nick Suzuki will drive up his stock but Rossi and Drysdale are better OHL players, and Raymond and Holtz are better wingers, than I've seen out of Perfetti at this point.

At least he put Sebrango and Hunt in more appropriate spots for once. How they are still in 2nd round conversations right now is beyond me. They have both been well below par this year and I am kind of surprised they were invited to the Top Prospects game. Maybe they'll prove me wrong there.

 

[93LEAFS]

Barron should be much lower. May not even be 1st round anymore. Hurt + poor play on a team that should have been far more competitive than it was this year. Poirier at 18 more reasonable than Perfetti at 4 for me though. In a draft with a weaker top end, I can see having him 4th is reasonable. But over Raymond, Holtz, Drysdale, Rossi and Askarov? Not a chance at this point. Maybe Nick Suzuki will drive up his stock but Rossi and Drysdale are better OHL players, and Raymond and Holtz are better wingers, than I've seen out of Perfetti at this point.

Poirier is really overrated, he should probably be in the 30's on most lists.

Perfetti has high-skill level, high-IQ and a great shot. I'd take him over Holtz who seems to have a one-track mind. I think 4 is reasonable. I think he won't have some of the issues Rossi will have. Rossi plays a heavy puck-protection game at 5'9, I'm not sure he can physically hold off guys like he does in the OHL at the NHL level. I'd put Raymond above Perfetti. I also would say Perfetti is a safer projection than Drysdale. So, I'd probably have Perfetti around 6, so 4 isn't much of a reason. I also dispute this draft being great at the high-end. I see one clear top line player, and one guy with an insane tool kit and potential to be a top line center. But, nothing at the top really wows me. This isn't 2015, and it is worse than 2016 and 2013 at the top.

 

[4thline]

Veirling vs. Cuylle vs. Stranges,

With a late 3rd which would you bet on out playing their NHL draft slot and living up to the OHL draft upside?

What abouts vs. Evangelista an Valade?

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Veirling vs. Cuylle vs. Stranges,

With a late 3rd which would you bet on out playing their NHL draft slot and living up to the OHL draft upside?

What abouts vs. Evangelista an Valade?

Evangelista, then Stranges, then Cuylle, then Valade, then Vierling for me. I will say that the chances of the first three being late 3rd rounders is not particularly high though. Cuylle is being projected as a top 40 pick in a lot of mocks, and even the other two are in the 60's or 70's more often than not.

Evangelista is up there on my list for guys we should take with our mid-3rd rounder. He's a smaller RW, which is the last thing our team needs right now, but he's like a Marner-lite.

 

[93LEAFS]

1: Lafreniere
2: Byfield
3: Stutzle
4: Perfetti
5: Askarov
6: Raymond
7: Drysdale
8: Rossi
9: Holtz
10: Gunler

 

[hockeynorth]

1: Lafreniere
2: Byfield
3: Stutzle
4: Perfetti
5: Askarov
6: Raymond
7: Drysdale
8: Rossi
9: Holtz
10: Gunler

I like that list a lot though Lundell ^^^^^

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Here's a little game. The CHL Top Prospects game is today. In 2019, 6 players in the game went undrafted. 5 in 2018, 3 in 2017 and 3 in 2016.

11		Lafreniere, Alexis	LW	L	6.01	196	2001-10-11	Saint-Eustache, QC
13		Cuylle, Will	LW	L	6.03	204	2002-02-05	Toronto, ON
17		Greig, Ridly	C	L	5.11	164	2002-08-08	Lethbridge, AB
18		Zary, Connor	C	L	6.00	177	2001-09-25	Saskatoon, SK
20		Coe, Brandon	RW	R	6.04	190	2001-12-01	Ajax, ON
22		Bourque, Mavrik	C	R	5.10	168	2002-01-08	Plessisville, QC
24		Jarvis, Seth	C	R	5.10	179	2002-02-01	Winnipeg, MB
26		Pytlik, Jaromir	C	R	6.02	201	2001-09-25	Dacice, Czech Republic
42		Francis, Ryan	RW	R	5.09	168	2001-12-02	Beaver Bank, NS
71		Foerster, Tyson	RW	R	6.01	194	2002-01-18	Alliston, ON
91		Perfetti, Cole	C	L	5.10	177	2002-01-01	Whitby, ON
92		Ponomarev, Vasily	C	L	5.10	178	2002-03-13	Zelenograd, Russia

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

2		Schneider, Braden	D	R	6.02	202	2001-09-20	Prince Albert, SK
4		Sedoff, Christoffer	D	L	6.02	193	2002-02-20	Helsinki, Finland
6		Guhle, Kaiden	D	L	6.02	188	2002-01-18	Sherwood Park, AB
21		O'Rourke, Ryan	D	L	6.00	173	2002-05-16	Pickering, ON
23		Thompson, Jack	D	R	6.00	180	2002-03-19	Courtice, ON
60		Prokop, Luke	D	R	6.04	219	2002-05-06	Edmonton, AB

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

31		Hlavaj, Samuel	G	L	6.04	216	2001-05-29	Martin, Slovakia
32		Garand, Dylan	G	L	6.00	173	2002-06-07	Victoria, BC

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

9		Wiesblatt, Ozzy	RW	R	5.10	183	2002-03-09	Calgary, AB
14		Evangelista, Luke	RW	R	5.11	165	2002-02-21	Oakville, ON
19		Mercer, Dawson	C	R	6.00	181	2001-10-27	Bay Roberts, NL
21		Neighbours, Jake	LW	L	6.00	197	2002-03-29	Airdrie, AB
22		Quinn, Jack	RW	R	6.00	179	2001-09-19	Cobden, ON
23		Rossi, Marco	C	L	5.09	183	2001-09-23	Feldkirch, Austria
26		Finley, Jack	C	R	6.06	213	2002-09-02	Kelowna, BC
40		Stranges, Antonio	LW	L	5.11	172	2002-02-05	Plymouth, MI
42		Sourdif, Justin	RW	R	5.11	173	2002-03-24	Surrey, BC
44		Perreault, Jacob	RW	R	5.11	200	2002-04-15	Hinsdale, IL
55		Byfield, Quinton	C	L	6.04	215	2002-08-19	Newmarket, ON
93		Foudy, Jean-Luc	C	R	6.00	174	2002-05-13	Scarborough, ON

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

4		Drysdale, Jamie	D	R	5.11	175	2002-04-08	Toronto, ON
7		Puutio, Kasper	D	R	5.11	181	2002-06-03	Vaasa, Finland
37		Sebrango, Donovan	D	L	6.01	184	2002-01-12	Kingston, ON
51		Cormier, Lukas	D	L	5.09	180	2002-03-27	Sainte-Marie-de-Kent, NB
54		Poirier, Jeremie	D	L	6.00	199	2002-06-02	Salaberry-de-Valleyfield, QC
78		Nickl, Thimo	D	R	6.02	176	2001-12-04	Klagenfurt, Austria

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

33		Gould, Brock	G	L	6.05	201	2001-12-11	Colorado Springs, CO
35		Daws, Nico	G	L	6.04	202	2000-12-22	Burlington, ON

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

If you had to select 5 guys on that list who would go undrafted, who would they be?

For me, it would probably be Hlavaj, Gould, Prokop, Sebrango, and a tough-tie between Sedoff and Garand. The North American goalie crop is pretty weak this year TBH, which is why the crop in general is lacking more than most drafts.

 

[LeafsOHLRangers98]

Here's a little game. The CHL Top Prospects game is today. In 2019, 6 players in the game went undrafted. 5 in 2018, 3 in 2017 and 3 in 2016.

11		Lafreniere, Alexis	LW	L	6.01	196	2001-10-11	Saint-Eustache, QC
13		Cuylle, Will	LW	L	6.03	204	2002-02-05	Toronto, ON
17		Greig, Ridly	C	L	5.11	164	2002-08-08	Lethbridge, AB
18		Zary, Connor	C	L	6.00	177	2001-09-25	Saskatoon, SK
20		Coe, Brandon	RW	R	6.04	190	2001-12-01	Ajax, ON
22		Bourque, Mavrik	C	R	5.10	168	2002-01-08	Plessisville, QC
24		Jarvis, Seth	C	R	5.10	179	2002-02-01	Winnipeg, MB
26		Pytlik, Jaromir	C	R	6.02	201	2001-09-25	Dacice, Czech Republic
42		Francis, Ryan	RW	R	5.09	168	2001-12-02	Beaver Bank, NS
71		Foerster, Tyson	RW	R	6.01	194	2002-01-18	Alliston, ON
91		Perfetti, Cole	C	L	5.10	177	2002-01-01	Whitby, ON
92		Ponomarev, Vasily	C	L	5.10	178	2002-03-13	Zelenograd, Russia

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

2		Schneider, Braden	D	R	6.02	202	2001-09-20	Prince Albert, SK
4		Sedoff, Christoffer	D	L	6.02	193	2002-02-20	Helsinki, Finland
6		Guhle, Kaiden	D	L	6.02	188	2002-01-18	Sherwood Park, AB
21		O'Rourke, Ryan	D	L	6.00	173	2002-05-16	Pickering, ON
23		Thompson, Jack	D	R	6.00	180	2002-03-19	Courtice, ON
60		Prokop, Luke	D	R	6.04	219	2002-05-06	Edmonton, AB

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

31		Hlavaj, Samuel	G	L	6.04	216	2001-05-29	Martin, Slovakia
32		Garand, Dylan	G	L	6.00	173	2002-06-07	Victoria, BC

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

9		Wiesblatt, Ozzy	RW	R	5.10	183	2002-03-09	Calgary, AB
14		Evangelista, Luke	RW	R	5.11	165	2002-02-21	Oakville, ON
19		Mercer, Dawson	C	R	6.00	181	2001-10-27	Bay Roberts, NL
21		Neighbours, Jake	LW	L	6.00	197	2002-03-29	Airdrie, AB
22		Quinn, Jack	RW	R	6.00	179	2001-09-19	Cobden, ON
23		Rossi, Marco	C	L	5.09	183	2001-09-23	Feldkirch, Austria
26		Finley, Jack	C	R	6.06	213	2002-09-02	Kelowna, BC
40		Stranges, Antonio	LW	L	5.11	172	2002-02-05	Plymouth, MI
42		Sourdif, Justin	RW	R	5.11	173	2002-03-24	Surrey, BC
44		Perreault, Jacob	RW	R	5.11	200	2002-04-15	Hinsdale, IL
55		Byfield, Quinton	C	L	6.04	215	2002-08-19	Newmarket, ON
93		Foudy, Jean-Luc	C	R	6.00	174	2002-05-13	Scarborough, ON

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

4		Drysdale, Jamie	D	R	5.11	175	2002-04-08	Toronto, ON
7		Puutio, Kasper	D	R	5.11	181	2002-06-03	Vaasa, Finland
37		Sebrango, Donovan	D	L	6.01	184	2002-01-12	Kingston, ON
51		Cormier, Lukas	D	L	5.09	180	2002-03-27	Sainte-Marie-de-Kent, NB
54		Poirier, Jeremie	D	L	6.00	199	2002-06-02	Salaberry-de-Valleyfield, QC
78		Nickl, Thimo	D	R	6.02	176	2001-12-04	Klagenfurt, Austria

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

33		Gould, Brock	G	L	6.05	201	2001-12-11	Colorado Springs, CO
35		Daws, Nico	G	L	6.04	202	2000-12-22	Burlington, ON

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

If you had to select 5 guys on that list who would go undrafted, who would they be?

For me, it would probably be Hlavaj, Gould, Prokop, Sebrango, and a tough-tie between Sedoff and Garand. The North American goalie crop is pretty weak this year TBH, which is why the crop in general is lacking more than most drafts.

Good list. I think somebody will take a shot at Prokop though because he's a 6'4" right shot. I would replace him with Daws ( being a 2nd year draft eligible guy, didn't look great at the WJC), or Kasper Puutio.