NHL and NHLPA Prefer to play some regular season games if they are able to resume playing

[KingBogo]

Joking aside, I'm not quite sure why so many cities are clamouring for these games. The economic benefit has got to be minimal. I'd rather not have hundreds of people coming from other jurisdictions potentially bringing more caases of the virus to the city.

Players and support staff in the bubble are pretty much as safe as you can be to the rest of society. In terms of the economic impact, you have hotels and restaurants at a stand still for months and you introduce 12 hockey teams and support staff, TV, Radio and other media you are talking millions of dollars of revenue and probably a couple thousand jobs to the local economy. Which jurisdiction wouldn't want that?

 

[cbcwpg]

Canadians seem OK with possibly being benched as playoff venue: survey

The web survey, conducted by polling firm Leger and the Association for Canadian Studies, found 47 per cent thought it wasn't important that the puck drop in a Canadian arena.

The hockey question, limited to Canadian respondents, revealed 24 per cent felt it was very important for a Canadian city to play host, while 20 per cent said it was somewhat important.

Thirty-five per cent said it was not important at all, 12 per cent felt it was somewhat unimportant and nine per cent didn't know.

 

[cbcwpg]

Health matters: What medical experts think about NHL's return-to-play plan

 

[Gotaf7]

Developing story, Bruins player tested positive followed by a negative test.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Aavco says Hub Cities to be announced June 22 ..... more.

https://twitter.com/AavcoCup/status/1272252872105684992?cn=ZmxleGlibGVfcmVjcw==&refsrc=email

Using Vegas as a Hub is courting disaster. They have largely opened up The Strip, casinos, bars, etc with only minimal precautions.

The NHL seems to be putting more emphasis on the number of hotel rooms close to the arena than on any other factor. It seems to me that prevalence of Covid-19 should be much higher on the list.

I guess we will see.

 

[Whileee]

Developing story, Bruins player tested positive followed by a negative test.

At this point, with the Covid prevalence being very low, most positive tests among asymptomatic people without contact with a case will be false positives. They will need to have a system of retesting, perhaps using multiple different test kits to reduce false positives.

 

[Weezeric]

Aavco says Hub Cities to be announced June 22 ..... more.

https://twitter.com/AavcoCup/status/1272252872105684992?cn=ZmxleGlibGVfcmVjcw==&refsrc=email

Using Vegas as a Hub is courting disaster. They have largely opened up The Strip, casinos, bars, etc with only minimal precautions.

The NHL seems to be putting more emphasis on the number of hotel rooms close to the arena than on any other factor. It seems to me that prevalence of Covid-19 should be much higher on the list.

I guess we will see.

They will be in the bubble the NHL will create with top notch medical care and testing. NHL players will be safer during the playoffs than they have been the past few months.

 

[sipowicz]

Developing story, Bruins player tested positive followed by a negative test.

Hey little Gary lets get that "better late than never" - "haven't played in 3 months" season going, eh! What could go wrong!

 

[ps241]

At this point, with the Covid prevalence being very low, most positive tests among asymptomatic people without contact with a case will be false positives. They will need to have a system of retesting, perhaps using multiple different test kits to reduce false positives.

I read that some of the blood testing processes are far more accurate when it comes to accuracy and avoiding false positives.

 

[Whileee]

I read that some of the blood testing processes are far more accurate when it comes to accuracy and avoiding false positives.

In this circumstance you have to really emphasize sensitivity of the tests (i.e. minimize false negatives), though that might increase the number of false positives. False positives can be dealt with through repeat testing (often with a somewhat different test), but the damage of a false negative can't be ameliorated until it's too late.

There might be some gains in specificity with serological tests, but I would be concerned that they aren't sensitive enough, particularly early in the course of infection. Someone who has very recently been infected won't yet have developed an antibody response, so would have a false negative result.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

They will be in the bubble the NHL will create with top notch medical care and testing. NHL players will be safer during the playoffs than they have been the past few months.

The medical care and testing do not prevent infection. They are only useful after the fact. The players may be in a bubble but the hotel staff will not be. The restaurant staff will be living and working in a city that is taking very little in the way of precautions and where the virus is loose in the wild.

Living at home, wherever that may be, you can very effectively avoid contact. Living in a hotel for 2 months is a totally different story. All it will take is 1 player to get infected and at least 1 whole team will be unable to participate any further. Possibly more teams if games are played between the time he is infected and the time it is discovered.

 

[ps241]

In this circumstance you have to really emphasize sensitivity of the tests (i.e. minimize false negatives), though that might increase the number of false positives. False positives can be dealt with through repeat testing (often with a somewhat different test), but the damage of a false negative can't be ameliorated until it's too late.

There might be some gains in specificity with serological tests, but I would be concerned that they aren't sensitive enough, particularly early in the course of infection. Someone who has very recently been infected won't yet have developed an antibody response, so would have a false negative result.

Interesting thx!

I was chatting with an old friend who holds a decent role with a mayor Bank. He is my go to asset for information on the big picture. They have these pretty comprehensive calls where they bring in experts in all the fields like credit, economist, currency, health, political etc.

A few take aways from our chat. Keep in mind I was driving so this is based on my less than perfect memory.

Since the testing numbers are going up one area they are focusing on is hospital numbers and people in ICU’s. They like the way those numbers are trending.

Lots of vaccines in different levels of testing but Johnson and Johnson have moved up their larger human trials of a vaccine from September to July which is positive.

Never any guarantees on vaccines or treatments but the sense of urgency and amount of resources being thrown at the challenge are unprecedented.

credit markets were pretty challenged but now they are in a much better place.

Liability for businesses is starting to become a main hot button.

They are anticipating a shift towards antibody testing starting with healthcare workers going forward. They are expecting it to be widely available by September.

It’s early but Politically in the US there has been a shift. The wisest person my buddy knows on this topic says if you only watch two things “keep an eye on the over 65 year old polls in Florida, and keep an eye on the Senate race in Arizona”

There also appears to be a shift in Women over 35.

keep in mind it’s still June and lots can change but my buddy said this was the most optimistic update He has sat in on since this gong show started.

 

[Whileee]

Interesting thx!

I was chatting with an old friend who holds a decent role with a mayor Bank. He is my go to asset for information on the big picture. They have these pretty comprehensive calls where they bring in experts in all the fields like credit, economist, currency, health, political etc.

A few take aways from our chat. Keep in mind I was driving so this is based on my less than perfect memory.

Since the testing numbers are going up one area they are focusing on is hospital numbers and people in ICU’s. They like the way those numbers are trending.

Lots of vaccines in different levels of testing but Johnson and Johnson have moved up their larger human trials of a vaccine from September to July which is positive.

Never any guarantees on vaccines or treatments but the sense of urgency and amount of resources being thrown at the challenge are unprecedented.

credit markets were pretty challenged but now they are in a much better place.

Liability for businesses is starting to become a main hot button.

They are anticipating a shift towards antibody testing starting with healthcare workers going forward. They are expecting it to be widely available by September.

It’s early but Politically in the US there has been a shift. The wisest person my buddy knows on this topic says if you only watch two things “keep an eye on the over 65 year old polls in Florida, and keep an eye on the Senate race in Arizona”

There also appears to be a shift in Women over 35.

keep in mind it’s still June and lots can change but my buddy said this was the most optimistic update He has sat in on since this gong show started.

Interesting.

I don't think antibody testing is going to be all that useful from an epidemiological or public health perspective. It's not sensitive enough for screening, and so few people have been infected that it won't really help to identify who might have immunity. I think the bigger testing concepts will be around rapid testing to detect current infection at an early stage, as a way of screening.

A lot of the positive progress has likely come from the judicious use of masks, and the absolute avoidance of interactions with anyone with symptoms. Together, that has really reduced transmission and the reproduction number. I think that the main problems going forward will not only be related to crowds, but the reluctance / refusal to wear masks. I think that early on the concept was much more to reduce acquisition of the virus, when the real benefit is reducing onward transmission from those infected. It's likely a major reason for the success in many Asian countries, where mask-wearing is fairly common-place and now even moreso.

Progress on vaccine development certainly seems to be the most positive dimension, and it's good that there are several groups working on this. I think that will be the most important end-game, and it might come later this year if all goes well with the various trials.

Most epidemiologists and public health experts have been focusing on hospitalization and death data for some time now. Case data are unreliable, because testing patterns vary so much. There is some room for optimism, but I think there are some states in the US that are going very much in the wrong direction and will likely see further surges in hospitalizations and mortality. I think the big question is whether this leads to some improvement in social distancing and mask-wearing to slow the spread down again. The reality is that to stop the growth of the epidemic it really only takes about a 60% reduction in social contacts that could lead to transmission. Through a combination of wearing masks, basic social distancing, staying home when you have any symptoms, etc. it's not that hard to get to 60% reduction. That's why it's kind of remarkable to see some places where the epidemic is growing again. It takes a high level of stubbornness to refrain from basic practices to reduce transmission probabilities that will keep the epidemic at bay and allow for the wider resumption of services, etc.

 

[ps241]

Interesting.

I don't think antibody testing is going to be all that useful from an epidemiological or public health perspective. It's not sensitive enough for screening, and so few people have been infected that it won't really help to identify who might have immunity. I think the bigger testing concepts will be around rapid testing to detect current infection at an early stage, as a way of screening.

A lot of the positive progress has likely come from the judicious use of masks, and the absolute avoidance of interactions with anyone with symptoms. Together, that has really reduced transmission and the reproduction number. I think that the main problems going forward will not only be related to crowds, but the reluctance / refusal to wear masks. I think that early on the concept was much more to reduce acquisition of the virus, when the real benefit is reducing onward transmission from those infected. It's likely a major reason for the success in many Asian countries, where mask-wearing is fairly common-place and now even moreso.

Progress on vaccine development certainly seems to be the most positive dimension, and it's good that there are several groups working on this. I think that will be the most important end-game, and it might come later this year if all goes well with the various trials.

Most epidemiologists and public health experts have been focusing on hospitalization and death data for some time now. Case data are unreliable, because testing patterns vary so much. There is some room for optimism, but I think there are some states in the US that are going very much in the wrong direction and will likely see further surges in hospitalizations and mortality. I think the big question is whether this leads to some improvement in social distancing and mask-wearing to slow the spread down again. The reality is that to stop the growth of the epidemic it really only takes about a 60% reduction in social contacts that could lead to transmission. Through a combination of wearing masks, basic social distancing, staying home when you have any symptoms, etc. it's not that hard to get to 60% reduction. That's why it's kind of remarkable to see some places where the epidemic is growing again. It takes a high level of stubbornness to refrain from basic practices to reduce transmission probabilities that will keep the epidemic at bay and allow for the wider resumption of services, etc.

Cool post!

I see the major challenge in just general fatigue from people on the process of social distancing. Seems like allot of folks are tapping out.

Governments probably realize (especially in the US) the ship is sailing. People aren’t heading back indoorsEn masse so what does plan B look like. Messaging on Masks, hand washing, and distancing.....but it’s got to get to the targeted quarantine quickly.

Governments need to understand the changing landscape and push back. How should one build a new path forward taking those limitations into account.

 

[Whileee]

Cool post!

I see the major challenge in just general fatigue from people on the process of social distancing. Seems like allot of folks are tapping out.

Governments probably realize (especially in the US) the ship is sailing. People aren’t heading back indoorsEn masse so what does plan B look like. Messaging on Masks, hand washing, and distancing.....but it’s got to get to the targeted quarantine quickly.

Governments need to understand the changing landscape and push back. How should one build a new path forward taking those limitations into account.

I think the challenge is for public health to be able to reliably measure what's happening and to react appropriately when there are inevitable increases in cases with good communication and transparency with the public and very good surveillance and tracking. The public will tighten up if they understand the risk and get good clear guidance without overreacting to the cnew cases. We've used the"hammer" and now we are going to need to "dance" with the epidemic until something like a vaccine is available.

 

[ps241]

I think the challenge is for public health to be able to reliably measure what's happening and to react appropriately when there are inevitable increases in cases with good communication and transparency with the public and very good surveillance and tracking. The public will tighten up if they understand the risk and get good clear guidance without overreacting to the cnew cases. We've used the"hammer" and now we are going to need to "dance" with the epidemic until something like a vaccine is available.

100%

Ease off on the sky is falling message and slowly, calmly, call for a measured action when and if needed.

 

[Whileee]

100%

Ease off on the sky is falling message and slowly, calmly, call for a measured action when and if needed.

Agree.

I think the "hammer" was definitely needed to drive the epidemic to a low level, allowing for the latitude to manage things now over the longer haul.

Places that didn't use the hammer effectively now have fewer policy options because they still have a lot of local transmission. As an example, Sweden is still struggling and is now being excluded from travel into other Nordic countries that are now able to substantially relax conditions.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Damn, I hope this resumption of play doesn't come off the rails!

I'm very skeptical of using Las Vegas as a hub city. It has obvious assets for the purpose, but I think keeping the players in a bubble there will be impossible. JMO.

 

[cbcwpg]

Damn, I hope this resumption of play doesn't come off the rails!

I'm very skeptical of using Las Vegas as a hub city. It has obvious assets for the purpose, but I think keeping the players in a bubble there will be impossible. JMO.

I agree that having the bubble in Vegas will be a challenge.... but I think actually getting the players into a bubble ( no matter where it is ) with the majority of them not being infected will be a lot harder than keeping them healthy once they are in the bubble.

Players will be asked to travel from all over the world to a hub city... some of them are going to catch covid-19 on the way to the hub.

The problem being that they could be in the hub for 5 days before you know if they caught covid-19 on the way to the hub or not. And while you are awaiting to see if anyone is sick, they are in your bubble already. I said before... you almost need to isolate the players on the way into your bubble. Travel to the the hub city, quarantine for 2 weeks, then you are allowed into the bubble.

 

[Jets 31]

As much as i want to watch the Jets this is just stupid already, just file it already. Really at least to me anyway sports should not restart until they have a vaccine, same goes for concerts.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I agree that having the bubble in Vegas will be a challenge.... but I think actually getting the players into a bubble ( no matter where it is ) with the majority of them not being infected will be a lot harder than keeping them healthy once they are in the bubble.

Players will be asked to travel from all over the world to a hub city... some of them are going to catch covid-19 on the way to the hub.

The problem being that they could be in the hub for 5 days before you know if they caught covid-19 on the way to the hub or not. And while you are awaiting to see if anyone is sick, they are in your bubble already. I said before... you almost need to isolate the players on the way into your bubble. Travel to the the hub city, quarantine for 2 weeks, then you are allowed into the bubble.

They are not going to be quarantined, or bubbled, while in training camps beginning July 10. I think that is a mistake. The time of the TC should be used to ensure that everyone is virus free before they enter the hub city bubbles. In fact, I think they should all be going to their home cities now and beginning the isolation period before the training camps.

Each team will have ~30 players + coaches, trainers, equipment men, etc, probably 40-45 people in very close proximity to each other. All it will take is 1 carrier to infect an entire team. They need to take the bubble concept to an extreme to have any chance of completing this process.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

As much as i want to watch the Jets this is just stupid already, just file it already. Really at least to me anyway sports should not restart until they have a vaccine, same goes for concerts.

Don't disagree - but there is no guarantee there will ever be a vaccine. They still have not come up with a vaccine for the common cold. They need a new flu vaccine every year.

The fact that some people have been infected with Covid-19 twice suggests that this disease may be difficult to build up immunity to. Or they may just be rare exceptions to the usual rule. That is not known yet. But we can't assume that there will be a vaccine in any reasonably short time. In spite of some early promise, it may not happen.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Just read this story on TSN:
NHL not planning to quarantine players for training camps - TSN.ca

It doesn't sound to me like they are doing anywhere close to enough. Having teams bubble up once play resumes is worthless if they cannot ensure that everyone is free of contagion when they enter the bubble. It sounds like they are putting a lot of reliance on testing. Testing does not prevent anyone from getting infected. And it only prevents anyone from spreading the infection after they get a positive result. They can have been infectious for 4-5 days before that happens.

They all need to self-isolate for 14 days before TC begins. Then go into a strict bubble and stay there until they are eliminated from play or win the Cup. That may sound extreme but I think it is only with that kind of extreme caution that completing a PO will be possible. This virus spreads too easily for anything less to be adequate.

 

[cbcwpg]

“I’m pretty confident that once we get into hub cities, we’ll be able to do a good job of keeping it out,” Spezza said. “I think getting there is going to be the challenge, and that’s where it takes a little bit of discipline for us as players to make sure we don’t kind of derail the plans.”

***

The NHL is putting the entire ability to play the playoffs into the hands of 20 year olds and telling them to be socially responsible and self isolate after they arrive for training camp. Good luck with that...

 

[None]

They all need to self-isolate for 14 days before TC begins. Then go into a strict bubble and stay there until they are eliminated from play or win the Cup. That may sound extreme but I think it is only with that kind of extreme caution that completing a PO will be possible. This virus spreads too easily for anything less to be adequate.

If they're not planning to enforce quarantine before camps then no city should be open to hosting them in Canada. It's irresponsible not just for the safety of the players but for the public and team staff.

I hope that any city that gives them an exemption is also planning on substantial fines if they become a major vector for transmission. The players make enough that local fines aren't even a deterrent for most.