Baseball just finished up a 60 game schedule. Several teams had covid outbreaks but the majority of teams did not. I think the nhl teams are going to have to carry extra players on the active list in case of a positive test. The real saviour to baseball is the ability to play double headers where the outbreaks did not make the season last a whole bunch of extra days.
Baseball also is less straining on the body unless you are either a pitcher or catcher. There is hardly anybody contact and not a constant speed game. You also get longer breaks in between your shifts and the equipment is much lighter. Players can even leave the bench for short breaks when not defending on the field. They also have a much bigger bench so if someone is tired or not playing well they can get replaced. Hockey players seldom get that kind of break.
As far as the infection breakout chance I agree probably does not change that much from one sport to another because the infection between players interacting on the bench and in the locker room will be quite similar.
Should bubble not used to protect the players, I think NHL needs to address the biggest concern for players either themself or have wife or kids already with serious pre-existing health conditions who if infected may suffer badly, die, or suffering from ongoing slow recovery. These players most likely will opt-out playing for the season unless they can be tested twice a day each game/practice day and have a good isolation arrangement available immediately both on the road and at home.
Most players are responsible people and will take precautions to avoid risky behaviors that may expose themselves to the virus. Most of them have close friends on the team and the last thing they want is to be responsible for harming their teammates and their families. There may a few exceptions but if they are doing anything risky, I am sure that the teammates and coaches will quickly find out and correct these behaviors.
I still think the biggest issue is the Canadian-USA border nonessential travel policy and I do not think that realistically the Canadian government can make special exemptions for hockey players without loosening the restriction for other non-essential businesses travelers and families that have been separated by the border especially when there is no bubble to restrict the player's activities. Maybe the only way they can get around to do this is to have the players from USA teams located in high infection rate cities signed off legal documents making them liable to pay large fines should they get caught breaking strict protocols during their stay in Canadian cities that may lead to undesirable consequences such as holding or participate in large private parties (as in the case of superspreader). On top of that NHL can also police their own by posing severe suspensions and team fines for not supervising their players properly.
