NFL: NFC Playoff Picture

[misterchainsaw]

What a logjam at the top of the standings right now. The current 5 seed (San Francisco) is actually the only team that controls their own destiny for the #1 seed in the NFC. Seattle can lose a H2H tiebreaker to New Orleans if Green Bay drops a game; Green Bay loses a tiebreaker to either San Francisco or Seattle to H2H or common opponents, respectively; and as long as the NFC West team and Green Bay both win out, New Orleans is stuck in 3rd. (x-clinched playoffs, y-clinched division, z-clinched a bye, *-clinched home field advantage). As always, this exercise ignores the possibility of ties.

ENTERING WEEK 16:
1. x-Seattle - 11-3 (Leads H2H tiebreaker with San Francisco for the division, Leads conference record tiebreaker vs. NO and common opponents tiebreaker vs. Green Bay)
2. x-Green Bay - 11-3 (Leads conference record tiebreaker with New Orleans)
3. y-New Orleans - 11-3
4. Dallas 7-7 (Leads H2H tiebreaker with Philadelphia)
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5. x-San Francisco - 11-3
6. Minnesota - 10-4
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7. LA Rams - 8-6
9. Philadelphia - 7-7
ELIMINATED: Chicago(7-7), Tampa Bay(7-7), Atlanta(5-9), Carolina(5-9), Arizona(4-9-1), Detroit(3-10-1), NY Giants(3-11), Washington(3-11)

CLINCHING SCENARIOS:
- Green Bay clinches the NFC North with a win
- Minnesota clinches a playoff spot with a win
- Minnesota clinches a playoff spot with a LA Rams loss
- Dallas clinches the NFC East with a win

ELIMINATION SCENARIOS:
- Philadelphia is eliminated with a loss
- LA Rams are eliminated with a loss
- LA Rams are eliminated with a Minnesota win

Teams who control their own destiny for home field advantage: San Francisco
Teams who control their own destiny for a first round bye: Seattle, Green Bay
Teams who control their own destiny for a division title: Dallas, Philadelphia
Teams who control their own destiny for a wild card birth: Minnesota

 

[Canada4Gold]

Week 17 scenarios in chart form.

If GB wins tomorrow night

If MIN wins tomorrow

 

[Didalee Hed]

I saw an article by Lindsay Jones on The Athletic claiming the week 17 Seattle-San Francisco game is for both the West title and the number one seed. Are those two teams really the only two possibilities for the top seed?

 

[Tuggy]

I saw an article by Lindsay Jones on The Athletic claiming the week 17 Seattle-San Francisco game is for both the West title and the number one seed. Are those two teams really the only two possibilities for the top seed?

GB and NO can still get the #1 seed.

 

[Halladay]

I saw an article by Lindsay Jones on The Athletic claiming the week 17 Seattle-San Francisco game is for both the West title and the number one seed. Are those two teams really the only two possibilities for the top seed?

look at the post above you...

 

[Quid Pro Clowe]

If SF wins, they get the 1 seed regardless. They've beaten both GB and NO.

 

[StreetHawk]

If SF wins, they get the 1 seed regardless. They've beaten both GB and NO.

SF can be any of 1, 5, 6. Win vs Seattle and they are #1 regardless of anything else.

lose to Seattle and depending on the GB/Min game they could be 5/6. If they tie for 12-4 with Minny I believe Minny has the edge thus pushes SF to 6. Can be 5 if GB beats Minny.

seattle can be anything except #4 seed depending how everything plays out. A bye is not guaranteed because GB and NO can win out and be 13-3.

 

[Quid Pro Clowe]

SF can be any of 1, 5, 6. Win vs Seattle and they are #1 regardless of anything else.

lose to Seattle and depending on the GB/Min game they could be 5/6. If they tie for 12-4 with Minny I believe Minny has the edge thus pushes SF to 6. Can be 5 if GB beats Minny.

seattle can be anything except #4 seed depending how everything plays out. A bye is not guaranteed because GB and NO can win out and be 13-3.

Seattle seems to play better on the road, but a bye week would be huge for rest. The loss yesterday was pretty impactful with regards to that bye despite it not having any division implications.

 

[StreetHawk]

Seattle seems to play better on the road, but a bye week would be huge for rest. The loss yesterday was pretty impactful with regards to that bye despite it not having any division implications.

Toughest road tests were SF, a healthy Big Ben for the first half against Pittsburgh before Fitzpatrick arrived, Cleveland and the Rams. Falcons, Cards, Panthers, Philly with lots of injuries.

Carroll seems to operate much differently than NE. They stick to their fundamental game plan of running the ball, play action off that and their D scheme hasn’t changed. But their talent isn’t what it once was. Have not drafted as well in recent years.

 

[Canada4Gold]

Now that GB won I've condensed the scenarios. Both are in 1 picture however

 

[Halladay]

Niners and the Packers only two teams where if they win they get a bye. Seattle and the Saints need help.

 

[sigma six]

Have not drafted as well in recent years.

That's for sure, and I'm tired of giving a pass because of success earlier in his tenure. I think it's time for changes in the FO.

 

[Canada4Gold]

SF wins = SF, GB, NO
SEA wins = GB, NO, SEA

 

[StreetHawk]

SF wins = SF, GB, NO
SEA wins = GB, NO, SEA

Man. To be 13-3 and no bye....

 

[John Price]

 

[StreetHawk]

NO impacted the most by tonight’s result. Either a bye or they host Minnesota next weekend. Rematch of the whiffed tackle.