NFL: NFC Playoff Picture

[Halladay]

Wonder what's the best record not to get a first-round bye

The Titans were 13-3 and didn't get one the year they went to the Super Bowl.

 

[JeremyTB]

If the Niners had just settled for a tie vs Seattle they would be in even better position than they are now. Still undefeated and a 2 full game lead over anybody else in the conference including Seattle.

 

[YEM]

I liked the Eagles to win the East several weeks ago because of exactly that. Not hard to imagine Dallas going 2-3 over their final 5 while Philly could very conceivably go 4-1, just the way the schedule sets up.

several weeks ago the eagles were playing much better than the past few weeks and had way less injury issues
I'm an eagles fan and would be surprised if they went 4-0 against wash/phins/g's x2
they've got holes & weaknesses everywhere at the moment

 

[b1e9a8r5s]

Wonder what's the best record not to get a first-round bye

Chargers were 12-4 last year. Doubt there's ever been a 13-3 2nd place team, but don't know for sure.

(Should have kept reading, lol. Ten 13-3).

 

[Canada4Gold]

Arizona scenarios and done... and there's a lot of them.

Arizona eliminated from Playoffs:
- ARI Loss
- ARI Tie + GB Win/Tie
- ARI Tie + PHI Loss/Tie + CAR Loss + Min Win/Tie
- ARI Tie + PHI Loss/Tie + CAR Loss + NO Win/Tie
- ARI Tie + PHI Loss/Tie + CAR Loss + NYJ Win/Tie
- ARI Tie + PHI Loss/Tie + CAR Loss + 1 or More Wins from (DEN, DAL, TEN, HOU)
- ARI Tie + PHI Loss/Tie + CAR Tie + MIN Win + NYJ Win + NO Win/Tie
- ARI Tie + PHI Loss/Tie + CAR Tie + MIN Win + NYJ Tie + NO Win
- ARI Tie + PHI Loss/Tie + CAR Tie + MIN Win + 1 Win from (NYJ, NO) + 1 or More Wins from (DEN, DAL, TEN, HOU)
- ARI Tie + PHI Loss/Tie + CAR Tie + MIN Win + NYJ Tie + 2 or More Wins from (DEN, DAL, TEN, HOU)
- ARI Tie + PHI Loss/Tie + CAR Tie + MIN Win + NO Tie + 2 or More Wins from (DEN, DAL, TEN, HOU)
- ARI Tie + PHI Loss/Tie + CAR Tie + MIN Win + 3 or More Wins from (DEN, DAL, TEN, HOU)
- ARI Tie + PHI Loss/Tie + CAR Tie + MIN Tie + NYJ Win + NO Win + DEN Win/Tie
- ARI Tie + PHI Loss/Tie + CAR Tie + MIN Tie + NYJ Win + NO Win + DAL Win/Tie
- ARI Tie + PHI Loss/Tie + CAR Tie + MIN Tie + NYJ Win + NO Win + TEN Win/Tie
- ARI Tie + PHI Loss/Tie + CAR Tie + MIN Tie + NYJ Win + NO Win + HOU Win/Tie
- ARI Tie + PHI Loss/Tie + CAR Tie + MIN Tie + NYJ Win + NO Tie + 1.5 or More Wins from (DEN, DAL, TEN, HOU)
- ARI Tie + PHI Loss/Tie + CAR Tie + MIN Tie + NYJ Tie + NO Win + 1.5 or More Wins from (DEN, DAL, TEN, HOU)
- ARI Tie + PHI Loss/Tie + CAR Tie + MIN Tie + 1 Win from (NYJ, NO) + 2.5 or More Wins from (DEN, DAL, TEN, HOU)
- ARI Tie + PHI Loss/Tie + CAR Tie + MIN Tie + NYJ Tie + 3.5 or More Wins from (DEN, DAL, TEN, HOU)
- ARI Tie + PHI Loss/Tie + CAR Tie + MIN Tie + NO Tie + 3.5 or More Wins from (DEN, DAL, TEN, HOU)
- ARI Tie + PHI Loss/Tie + CAR Tie + NYJ Win + NO Win + 2 or More Wins from (DEN, DAL, TEN, HOU)
- ARI Tie + PHI Loss/Tie + CAR Tie + NYJ Win + NO Tie + 3 or More Wins from (DEN, DAL, TEN, HOU)
- ARI Tie + PHI Loss/Tie + CAR Tie + NYJ Tie + NO Win + 3 or More Wins from (DEN, DAL, TEN, HOU)
- ARI Tie + PHI Loss/Tie + CAR Tie + 1 Win from (NYJ, NO) + DEN Win + DAL Win + TEN Win + HOU Win
- ARI Tie + PHI Loss/Tie + MIN Win + 3.5 or More Wins from (NYJ, NO, DEN, DAL)
- GB Win + MIN Win/Tie
- GB Tie + MIN Win/Tie + PHI Loss/Tie + CAR Loss
- GB Tie + PHI Loss/Tie + MIN Win + 3 or More Wins from (NYJ, NO, DEN, DAL)
- GB Tie + PHI Loss/Tie + MIN Tie + NYJ Win + NO Win + DEN Win + DAL Win
- GB Tie + PHI Loss/Tie + CAR Tie + MIN Win
- GB Tie + PHI Loss/Tie + CAR Tie + MIN Tie + NYJ Win/Tie
- GB Tie + PHI Loss/Tie + CAR Tie + MIN Tie + NO Win/Tie
- GB Tie + PHI Loss/Tie + CAR Tie + MIN Tie + DEN Win/Tie
- GB Tie + PHI Loss/Tie + CAR Tie + MIN Tie + DAL Win/Tie
- GB Tie + PHI Loss/Tie + CAR Tie + MIN Tie + TEN Win/Tie
- GB Tie + PHI Loss/Tie + CAR Tie + MIN Tie + HOU Win/Tie

 

[rangerssharks414]

I think the six teams in playoff position right now will be the six that make it.

 

[justafan22]

Chargers were 12-4 last year. Doubt there's ever been a 13-3 2nd place team, but don't know for sure.

(Should have kept reading, lol. Ten 13-3).

If the Seahawks/49ers keep up their great play we may finally see a 13-3 team on the road wild card weekend.

(1999 Titans had a home game since there were only 3 divisions, thus the 4 seed gets to host a wild card game even if you didn't win your division)

 

[Halladay]

Forgot the Saints in 2011 also had 13 wins.

 

[Quid Pro Clowe]

Forgot the Saints in 2011 also had 13 wins.

The year they lost in Seattle they had 11. The next season they won 13 and hosted a WC game.

 

[Taro Tsujimoto]

The optimal NFC Least scenario:

• Cowboys go 0-4
• Giants go 4-0
• Washington goes 3-1 (loss to Giants)
• Eagles go 1-3 (win against Cowboys)

4-way tie at 6-10, baby!

 

[misterchainsaw]

The optimal NFC Least scenario:

• Cowboys go 0-4
• Giants go 4-0
• Washington goes 3-1 (loss to Giants)
• Eagles go 1-3 (win against Cowboys)

4-way tie at 6-10, baby!

Too bad Dallas would win the tiebreaker there

 

[Canada4Gold]

Week 14 Scenarios:

WAS Eliminated from Playoffs:
- WAS Loss
- WAS Tie + DAL Tie
- WAS Tie + PHI Win
- DAL Win
- PHI Win + DAL Tie

CAR Eliminated from Playoffs:
- CAR Loss
- CAR Tie + MIN Tie
- MIN Win

TB Eliminated from Playoffs:
- TB Loss/Tie + MIN Tie
- TB Loss + CHI Win
- TB Loss + LAR Win + CAR Win + CHI Tie + 2 or More Wins from (NO, DEN, LAC)
- TB Loss + LAR Win + CAR Win + 2.5 or More Wins from (NO, DEN, LAC)
- TB Loss + LAR Win + CAR Tie + CHI Tie + NO Win + DEN Win + LAC Win
- MIN Win

SF Clinch Playoff Spot:
- SF Win + LAR Loss/Tie
- SF Tie + LAR Loss

SEA Clinch Playoff Spot:
- SEA Win/Tie

 

[misterchainsaw]

A little late....not really because of the difficulty of the scenarios (although TB's eliminations got tricky, with LAR needing to clinch SOV over them despite losing to them during the season to eliminate them) and more because I'm a slacker. Not much in the way of complicated clinching scenarios, that's for sure. As always, the possibility of ties are not considered (x-clinched wild card, y-clinched division, z-clinched bye, *-clinched home field advantage

ENTERING WEEK 14:
1. y-New Orleans - 10-2 (Owns H2H tiebreaker over Seattle)
2. Seattle - 10-2 (Holds H2H tiebreaker over San Francisco)
3. Green Bay 9-3
4. Dallas 6-6
--------------------------------------------------------------
5. San Francisco - 10-2
6. Minnesota 8-4
_________________________________________
7. LA Rams - 7-5
8. Chicago - 6-6
9. Tampa Bay - 5-7 (Holds divisional record tiebreaker over Carolina, Holds conference record tiebreaker over Philadelphia)
10. Philadelphia - 5-7 (Holds conference record tiebreaker over Carolina)
11. Carolina - 5-7
.....
15. Washington 3-9
ELIMINATED: Detroit (3-8-1), Arizona (3-8-1), Atlanta (3-9), NY Giants (2-10)

CLINCHING SCENARIOS:
- Seattle clinches a playoff spot with a win.
- San Francisco clinches a playoff spot with a win and a LA Rams loss

ELIMINATION SCENARIOS:
- Washington is eliminated with a loss
- Washington is eliminated with a Dallas win
- Washington is eliminated with a Philadelphia win* (I will mention here that WSH would still have a scenario that includes a DAL-PHI tie later in the year to still be able to win the division if WSH and PHI wins but DAL loses, but without ties they are out if PHI wins....if this does come to pass I'll probably leave Washington in the mix until they are officially eliminated)
- Carolina is eliminated with a loss
- Carolina is eliminated with a Minnesota win
- Tampa Bay is eliminated with a Minnesota win
- Tampa Bay is eliminated with a loss and a Chicago win
- Tampa Bay is eliminated with a loss, LA Rams win, Carolina win, New Orleans win, Denver win, and LA Chargers win

Teams that control their own destiny for the #1 seed: New Orleans, San Francisco
Teams that control their own destiny for a 1st round bye: Seattle
Teams that control their own destiny for their division: Green Bay, Dallas, Philadelphia
Teams that control their own destiny for a wild card: Minnesota

 

[Didalee Hed]

At least whichever NFC West team finishes with the 5th seed won't have to go play a team with 4 less wins in sub-0 weather like SF did a few years ago vs GB.

Things tend to even out over time.

Green Bay got shafted really badly vs the 9ers on the rice fumble in 98(?), and in 2012 they got jacked by the Niners for a first round bye because of fail mary- the call so appallingly bad that the nfl gave in to the pathetic and puny referee union.

 

[Trap Jesus]

I'm really rooting for that 6-10 NFC East winner, even if it's the Cowboys. Losing your last 6 games, going 6-10 and still making the playoffs would just be amazing.

 

[Spirits]

Things tend to even out over time.

Green Bay got shafted really badly vs the 9ers on the rice fumble in 98(?), and in 2012 they got jacked by the Niners for a first round bye because of fail mary- the call so appallingly bad that the nfl gave in to the pathetic and puny referee union.

Of all the things Green Bay gets, shafted is not one of them. Except Erin Rodgers, naturally.

 

[Didalee Hed]

Of all the things Green Bay gets, shafted is not one of them. Except Erin Rodgers, naturally.

Do you disagree with either of the particular examples?

 

[Canada4Gold]

Here's what I have for this coming week. Nothing confirm yet. The benefits of a strong conference with a lot of disparity. Almost half the conference is eliminated already, leaving few scenarios this week

SF Clinches Playoff Spot with:
- SF Win/Tie
- LAR Loss/Tie
- GB Loss + MIN Loss

SEA Clinches Playoff Spot with:
- SEA Win + LAR Loss/Tie
- SEA Win + MIN Loss
- SEA Win + MIN Tie + GB Loss
- SEA Tie + LAR Loss

GB Clinches Playoff Spot with:
- GB Win + LAR Loss/Tie
- GB Tie + LAR Loss

CHI Eliminated from Playoffs with:
- CHI Loss + MIN Win/Tie
- CHI Loss + LAR Win
- CHI Tie + MIN Win

DAL Clinches Division with:
- DAL Win + PHI Loss* + PHI Loss

PHI Eliminated from Playoffs with:
- PHI Loss* + PHI Loss + DAL Win

* - Monday result this week

 

[Captain Bowie]

The Rams put the nail in their own coffin by getting hammered by the Ravens.

They still play the Niners, Seahawks and Cowboys. Two against the Cardinals as well.

i smell 8-8

Not so much. Niners game is the biggest hurdle, but not impossible. Win out and a Vikings loss and their in.

 

[Quid Pro Clowe]

Things tend to even out over time.

Green Bay got shafted really badly vs the 9ers on the rice fumble in 98(?), and in 2012 they got jacked by the Niners for a first round bye because of fail mary- the call so appallingly bad that the nfl gave in to the pathetic and puny referee union.

Yeah, those were 2 bad calls. I remember Rice happening just hoping the refs didn't get the call right lol.

 

[Didalee Hed]

Yeah, those were 2 bad calls. I remember Rice happening just hoping the refs didn't get the call right lol.

Haha I appreciate the honesty. I have a Niners friend fan who still denies(with a shit eating grin) that the referees missed anything.

 

[Quid Pro Clowe]

Haha I appreciate the honesty. I have a Niners friend fan who still denies(with a **** eating grin) that the referees missed anything.

To be honest, after watching you guys eat our lunch the previous~5 postseasons I just didn't feel bad lol.

 

[Didalee Hed]

To be honest, after watching you guys eat our lunch the previous~5 postseasons I just didn't feel bad lol.

The teams are just never really “there” at the same time, are they? Like even if they’re both good, one is still an extra gear up.

 

[Quid Pro Clowe]

The teams are just never really “there” at the same time, are they? Like even if they’re both good, one is still an extra gear up.

Nah, those mid-late 90's 49ers teams were superb. The only team better at that time was your Packers. 49ers would have another sb or two if it wasn't for Favre and crew.

 

[Didalee Hed]

Nah, those mid-late 90's 49ers teams were superb. The only team better at that time was your Packers. 49ers would have another sb or two if it wasn't for Favre and crew.

The thing about those packers that annoys me is a non-connection yet also a connection between them and my 2011 canucks(could you and I be any more at odds? Haha)

The 96-97 packers were best at everything, o/d and specials. The Canucks almost were. Goals, goals against, and pp. 2nd in pk.

packers cashed that domination in, and from what I can tell on this website, it’s highly celebrated that the 2011 canucks did not cash all that statistical domination in.

For what it’s worth, I really badly wanted joe and the Sharks to win that cup against Pittsburgh.