NFL: NFC Playoff Picture

[JeremyTB]

I'm really rooting for that 6-10 NFC East winner, even if it's the Cowboys. Losing your last 6 games, going 6-10 and still making the playoffs would just be amazing.

And getting to host a team that is 13-3

 

[misterchainsaw]

Simple week in both conferences, apparently. As always, this ignores the possibilty of ties (x-clinched playoff spot, y-clinched division, z-clinched 1st round bye, *-clinched home field advantage)

ENTERING WEEK 15:
1. San Francisco - 11-2
2. Green Bay - 10-3 (Holds Conference record tiebreaker over New Orleans)
3. y-New Orleans - 10-3
4. Dallas 6-7 (Holds H2H tiebreaker over Philadelphia)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
5. Seattle 10-3
6. Minnesota 9-4
__________________________________________________
7. LA Rams 8-5
8. Chicago 7-6
...
10. Philadelphia 6-7
ELIMINATED: Tampa Bay (6-7), Carolina (5-8), Atlanta (4-9), Detroit (3-9-1), Arizona (3-9-1), Washington (3-10), NY Giants (2-11)

CLINCHING SCENARIOS:
- San Francisco will clinch a playoff spot with a win
- San Francisco will clinch a playoff spot with an LA Ram loss
- San Francisco will clinch a playoff spot with a Green Bay loss and a Minnesota loss
- Green Bay will clinch a playoff spot with a win and a LA Ram loss
- Seattle will clinch a playoff spot with a win and a LA Ram loss
- Seattle will clinch a playoff spot with a win and a Minnesota loss

ELIMINATION SCENARIOS:
- Chicago will be a eliminated with a loss and a Minnesota win
- Chicago will be a eliminated with a loss and a LA Ram win

Teams that control their own destiny for the #1 seed: San Francisco
Teams that control their own destiny for a first round bye: Green Bay, Seattle
Teams that control their own destiny for their divison: New Orleans (already clinched), Dallas, Philadelphia
Teams that control their own destiny for a playoff spot: Minnesota

 

[Blackhawkswincup]

Bears are finished

Only a formality at this point

Faint playoff hopes died in GB today

 

[Marc the Habs Fan]

49ers, Packers and Seahawks all clinch.

Seahawks back in 1st.

49ers vs Seahawks week 17 for the division seems almost certain now.

 

[kingsholygrail]

49ers, Packers and Seahawks all clinch.

Seahawks back in 1st.

49ers vs Seahawks week 17 for the division seems almost certain now.

Have a feeling the 49ers will lose out the season. Their D is shredded right now.

 

[Marc the Habs Fan]

Question for chainsaw and Canada4Gold:

If LAR beats SF and SEA beats ARI next week and then SF beats SEA in week 17, I think it comes down to strength of victory. Am I wrong?

Both teams would be 12-4.
Both teams 1-1 against each other.
Both teams would be 4-2 in the division.
Both teams would be 10-4 in common games.
Both teams 9-3 in the conference.

I am going to guess SF is slightly ahead in strength of victory with wins over GB and NO.

 

[misterchainsaw]

NFC field could very easily be set entering the last week of the season. All it would take is a Dallas win over Philly and a LA Ram loss/tie or a MIN win/tie. Still a ton of variability for seeding/division winners though.

 

[Trap Jesus]

NFC field could very easily be set entering the last week of the season. All it would take is a Dallas win over Philly and a LA Ram loss/tie or a MIN win/tie. Still a ton of variability for seeding/division winners though.

49ers playing the Seahawks and Packers playing the Vikings could make things really confusing for positioning still though, especially with a Vikings win over the Packers next week.

 

[misterchainsaw]

Question for chainsaw and Canada4Gold:

If LAR beats SF and SEA beats ARI next week and then SF beats SEA in week 17, I think it comes down to strength of victory. Am I wrong?

Both teams would be 12-4.
Both teams 1-1 against each other.
Both teams would be 4-2 in the division.
Both teams would be 10-4 in common games.
Both teams 9-3 in the conference.

I am going to guess SF is slightly ahead in strength of victory with wins over GB and NO.

Yup. Strengh of victory is pretty darn close right now too. (.015 difference in favor of SF after today's results and the results required to create the tie included - I think that's like 1 win.)

 

[Rhaegar Targaryen]

Cowboys will crush the Eagles and the Vikings will win. Playoffs are set IMO.

 

[BlueDream]

Just comes down to the Eagles/Boys matchup next weekend. Hope Philly wins.

 

[StreetHawk]

Yup. Strengh of victory is pretty darn close right now too. (.015 difference in favor of SF after today's results and the results required to create the tie included - I think that's like 1 win.)

There's 3 divisions in the NFC which could come down to tie breakers.

SF/SEA could both end at 12-4 should SF lose to LAR but beat SEA and SEA beats AZ and loses to SF. Both would have lost to Ravens and Rams and to each other. Both lost to a common opponent from the NFC south in NO for SEA and ATL for SF. So, next tie breaker.

GB/MIN have a head to head left which would them put both teams at 11-4 if Minny wins. If they end up tied either at 11-5 or 12-4, common opponents outside division are AFC West and NFC East. Final game each is a division game, so still common opponents. To end up tied, GB has loses to PHI, LAC, SF, MIN. Min would have loses to CHI, GB, KC, SEA. Common opponents that they would have lost to would be LAC/PHI for GB vs MIN with CHI/KC. So, would go to the next tie breaker. GB would have the better Division record.

DAL/PHI both 7-7. To be tied, both need to be 8-8, as PHI needs to beat Dallas but lose to NYG and Dallas would then need to beat WAS. Dal loses in that scenario would be to: NO, GB, NYJ, MIN, NE, BUF, CHI, PHI. Philly loses would be to: ATL, DET, MIN, DAL, NE, SEA, MIA, NYG.
Common opponents outside the division are AFC East and NFC North.
Dallas common opponent loses would be to: GB, NYJ, MIN, NE, BUF, CHI.
Philly common opponent loses would be to: DET, MIN, NE, MIA, NYG.
So, if Philly beats Dallas in week 16, do they wrap up the NFC East?

 

[Didalee Hed]

What are the standings tonight with a Saints win?

 

[Canada4Gold]

What are the standings tonight with a Saints win?

NO stays in 3rd due to inferior conference record 8-3 v 8-2 for GB and SEA.

 

[misterchainsaw]

There's 3 divisions in the NFC which could come down to tie breakers.

SF/SEA could both end at 12-4 should SF lose to LAR but beat SEA and SEA beats AZ and loses to SF. Both would have lost to Ravens and Rams and to each other. Both lost to a common opponent from the NFC south in NO for SEA and ATL for SF. So, next tie breaker.

GB/MIN have a head to head left which would them put both teams at 11-4 if Minny wins. If they end up tied either at 11-5 or 12-4, common opponents outside division are AFC West and NFC East. Final game each is a division game, so still common opponents. To end up tied, GB has loses to PHI, LAC, SF, MIN. Min would have loses to CHI, GB, KC, SEA. Common opponents that they would have lost to would be LAC/PHI for GB vs MIN with CHI/KC. So, would go to the next tie breaker. GB would have the better Division record.

DAL/PHI both 7-7. To be tied, both need to be 8-8, as PHI needs to beat Dallas but lose to NYG and Dallas would then need to beat WAS. Dal loses in that scenario would be to: NO, GB, NYJ, MIN, NE, BUF, CHI, PHI. Philly loses would be to: ATL, DET, MIN, DAL, NE, SEA, MIA, NYG.
Common opponents outside the division are AFC East and NFC North.
Dallas common opponent loses would be to: GB, NYJ, MIN, NE, BUF, CHI.
Philly common opponent loses would be to: DET, MIN, NE, MIA, NYG.
So, if Philly beats Dallas in week 16, do they wrap up the NFC East?

SF/SEA was covered above - that would go down to strength of victory if SF loses to the Rams, SEA beats ARI, and SF then beats SEA. Currently SF would lead that strength of victory .471 to .457. To look at it another way, the two teams will only have 3 distinct wins from each other: SF beat WSH, GB and NO, and SEA beat ATL, PHI, and MIN. Currently those team's win totals are 24 for SF (with tonight's NO game "in hand"), and 22 for SEA. SF could clinch strength of victory before week 17 if their trio of teams wins 2 more games than Seattle's trio of teams before week 17.

GB/MIN you covered adequately, although I would note that divisional record comes before common opponents in the tiebreakers inside the division. TL/DR version: GB wins all tiebreakers with MIN.

DAL/PHI swings on that as well; if PHI beats DAL but then loses to the Giants, and DAL beats WSH, then Dallas would have a better divisional record than Washington and would win the division. The only way these two can end up tied is 8-8, and Dallas wins all tiebreakers regardless of who wins the head to head meeting next week.

What are the standings tonight with a Saints win?

#1 Seahawks
#2 Packers
#3 Saints

This will also be the order if these 3 teams all win out. The Saints would have the worst conference record, then the Seahawks would beat the Packers on common opponents. If the 49ers win out instead, they would go into the Seahawks slot. This only applies at 13-3, though. At 12-4 the Saints still have some tiebreaker variability, since they have non-conference games left.

 

[StreetHawk]

SF/SEA was covered above - that would go down to strength of victory if SF loses to the Rams, SEA beats ARI, and SF then beats SEA. Currently SF would lead that strength of victory .471 to .457. To look at it another way, the two teams will only have 3 distinct wins from each other: SF beat WSH, GB and NO, and SEA beat ATL, PHI, and MIN. Currently those team's win totals are 24 for SF (with tonight's NO game "in hand"), and 22 for SEA. SF could clinch strength of victory before week 17 if their trio of teams wins 2 more games than Seattle's trio of teams before week 17.

GB/MIN you covered adequately, although I would note that divisional record comes before common opponents in the tiebreakers inside the division. TL/DR version: GB wins all tiebreakers with MIN.

DAL/PHI swings on that as well; if PHI beats DAL but then loses to the Giants, and DAL beats WSH, then Dallas would have a better divisional record than Washington and would win the division. The only way these two can end up tied is 8-8, and Dallas wins all tiebreakers regardless of who wins the head to head meeting next week.

So, SF, GB, DAL are ahead on tiebreakers if they end up tied. But, Seattle and Philly control their destinies if they beat their division rival in the next 2 weeks, whereas Minnesota needs help from Detroit (who likely won't have Stafford for their finale). Why risk your guy coming off an injured back in a meaningless game?

 

[Captain Bowie]

My poor Rams.

 

[StreetHawk]

My poor Rams.

Gurley is not 100% and will never be again. That's their downfall. Goff needs a good support staff to help him. Unfortunately, in the NFL, teams are paying QBs, not paying just for quality QBs.

Only a handful are elite. Others need a better supporting staff. But, the next level down QBs are asking for only a couple million less than the elite guys. Separation needs to be greater.

Rams traded up to get Goff, which cost them draft picks, meaning a starter or two on a rookie contract. Traded for Cooks which cost them cap space because he's onto contract 2, and not on a rookie deal. Same will happen with Ramsey. Get a quality player, but due to deals for Donald, Goff, Gurley, Cooks, etc. they need some low cost guys.

Of your 22 starters, around half will be on rookie contracts. Paying between 8-10 guys big money. And the final 2-3 guys will be veterans on contract 3/4 who have moved around so won't cost you huge money.

 

[Canada4Gold]

Here's what I have for this week. I haven't even bothered to check to see if the SEA SOV cases are clinchable or not. When I get around to it I will update.

LAR Eliminated from playoffs with:
- LAR Loss/Tie
- MIN Win/Tie

PHI Eliminated from playoffs with:
- PHI Loss

DAL Clinches Division with:
- DAL Win

MIN Clinches Playoff spot with:
- MIN Win/Tie
- LAR Loss/Tie

GB Clinches Division with:
- GB Win/Tie

SEA Clinches Division with:
- SEA Win + SF Loss + SEA SOV Clinch over SF

SEA Clinches Bye with:
- SEA Win + SF Loss + GB Loss + SEA SOV Clinch over SF

 

[Quid Pro Clowe]

Sf has 3 more wins on their strength of victory schedule, so I can't see how Seattle could possibly clinch this week.

 

[misterchainsaw]

Sf has 3 more wins on their strength of victory schedule, so I can't see how Seattle could possibly clinch this week.

Yeah, with only 3 distinct wins from each other, the teams Seattle beat definitely can't pick up the wins needed to clinch strength of victory. San Francisco could clinch strength of victory this week that would make next week's game for the division with no strings attached, but the scenario where the division comes down to that doesn't involve a clinching scenario this week.

 

[StreetHawk]

Yeah, with only 3 distinct wins from each other, the teams Seattle beat definitely can't pick up the wins needed to clinch strength of victory. San Francisco could clinch strength of victory this week that would make next week's game for the division with no strings attached, but the scenario where the division comes down to that doesn't involve a clinching scenario this week.

Does seem like regardless of the outcome in week 16 against LAR and AZ, it will come down to week 17 for both teams.

Both teams are banged up. So, would it be better to rest guys rather than play them at 80% so that they are as close to 100% when they play each other in week 17.

Seattle played without Griffen, Clowney, Ansash against CAR. Plus Wagner and Diggs suffered ankle injuries during the game.

SF, missing guys too.

 

[misterchainsaw]

Does seem like regardless of the outcome in week 16 against LAR and AZ, it will come down to week 17 for both teams.

Both teams are banged up. So, would it be better to rest guys rather than play them at 80% so that they are as close to 100% when they play each other in week 17.

Seattle played without Griffen, Clowney, Ansash against CAR. Plus Wagner and Diggs suffered ankle injuries during the game.

SF, missing guys too.

Eh I'm not sure I'd want to trust that in San Francisco's case. Certainly if Seattle beats SF in week 17, they're the division champions. But it doesn't take too many strange results to flip the strength of victory, and Seattle will win in strength of schedule if SOV ends up tied. There's also the question of byes and seeding. The 6 seed is going to be uncommonly good in the NFC. I don't think anyone wants to play wild card weekend.

 

[StreetHawk]

Who has the higher seed in the wildcard if there are a pair of 12-4 teams in WC?

SF has tie breaker vs GB. Seattle has tie breaker vs Min.

between GB and Sea who gets it? And between SF and Min?

 

[Marc the Habs Fan]

Who has the higher seed in the wildcard if there are a pair of 12-4 teams in WC?

SF has tie breaker vs GB. Seattle has tie breaker vs Min.

between GB and Sea who gets it? And between SF and Min?

GB vs SEA: This one is a moot point. It's impossible for GB to be a WC with a 12-4 record. They win 1 of their final 2 games, they win the division.

MIN vs SF: No head-to-head meeting. They would both be 9-3 in the conference, so it goes to common games. Those common games are: GB, SEA, WSH and ATL. MIN would be 4-1 against those teams if they finish 12-4 (so they beat GB this week). SF lost to SEA and ATL. So the Vikings win the tie-break.