NFL: NFC Playoff Picture

[Canada4Gold]

1. (x)SF 12-3
2. (y)GB 12-3
3. (y)NO 12-3
4. PHI 8-7
--------------------
5. (x)SEA 11-4
6. (x)MIN 10-5
--------------------
9. DAL 7-8
--------------------
7. LAR 8-7
8. CHI 7-8
10. TB 7-8
11. ATL 6-9
12. ARI 5-9-1
13. CAR 5-10
14. NYG 4-11
15. DET 3-11-1
16. WAS 3-12

(x)Clinched Playoff Spot
(y)Clinched Division
(z)Clinched Bye
(h)Clinched Home Field Advantage

Week 17 Scenarios:

Accurate Playoff Machine: NFL Playoff Predictor - 2019 - 2020 NFL Season - Playoff Predictors

Click to read more...

 

[misterchainsaw]

Yeah, Washington's done in the wild card if they lose and the Vikings win, but even if Dallas and Philly both win they won't be eliminated from the NFC East race.

Teams that control their own destiny:
San Francisco is the only team that controls their own destiny for the #1 seed.
Seattle and Green Bay control their own destiny for a first round bye (the Saints could be a 14-2 3rd seed if both GB and SEA also win out)
New Orleans, Dallas, Philadelphia, and Carolina control their own destiny for a division title
Minnesota controls their own destiny for a wild card spot

I'll mention the Rams here too - barring ties there is one singular scenario where they could miss the playoffs at 12-4 - to a SOV/SOS tiebreaker to the Seahawks with Minnesota and San Fran winning their respective divisions and GB taking the 5th spot at 12-4 as well.

 

[Blackhawkswincup]

Bears are essentially done

4 games behind Packers in Div race
4 games behind Seahawks in WC race
3 games behind Vikes in WC race

3 teams ahead of them at 5-4 in the hunt

 

[Josepho]

I honestly think the only playoff spot up for grabs is the NFCE spot.

 

[Kyle McMahon]

Seattle has unofficially stolen a playoff spot at this point. A measly +21 point differential against a schedule featuring five teams at 3-6 or worse. And they're somehow 8-2. Unreal.

 

[StreetHawk]

Seattle has unofficially stolen a playoff spot at this point. A measly +21 point differential against a schedule featuring five teams at 3-6 or worse. And they're somehow 8-2. Unreal.

Not a great D anymore so they run the ball to limit possessions. Keep the game close and rely on Wilson to win the game for them late.

No panic for them when it’s late. Been there done that.

Still have tough tests left with Philly and Rams and Panthers on the road plus Vikings and SF at home.

 

[Canada4Gold]

Here's what I have for next week. 3 different teams could be eliminated. No possible clinches yet

WAS Eliminated from Playoffs:
- WAS Loss
- WAS Tie + DAL Tie
- WAS Tie + PHI Win
- DAL Win

NYG Eliminated from Playoffs:
- NYG Loss + DAL Win

TB Eliminated from Playoffs:
- TB Loss + DET Loss + GB Win/Tie + SEA Win/Tie

 

[misterchainsaw]

ENTERING WEEK 12:
1. San Francisco - 9-1
2. Green Bay - 8-2 (Holds conference record tiebreaker over New Orleans)
3. New Orleans - 8-2
4. Dallas - 6-4
-----------------------------------------------------
5. Seattle - 8-2
6. Minnesota - 8-3
_______________________________
7. LA Rams - 6-4
8. Philadelphia - 5-5 (Holds conference record tiebreaker with Carolina)
9. Carolina - 5-5
10. Chicago - 4-6
11. Detroit - 3-6-1
12. Arizona - 3-7-1
13. Atlanta - 3-7 (Holds divisional record tiebreaker vs. Tampa Bay )
14. Tampa Bay - 3-7
15. NY Giants - 2-8
16. Washington - 1-9

ELIMINATION SCENARIOS:
- Washington is eliminated with a loss
- Washington is eliminated with a tie and a DAL tie OR a tie and a PHI win
- Washington is eliminated with a DAL win
- NY Giants are eliminated with a loss and a DAL win
- Tampa Bay is eliminated with a loss, DET loss, GB win or tie, and SEA win or tie

Teams that control their own destiny for a #1 seed: San Francisco
Teams that control their own destiny for a first round bye: Green Bay, Seattle
Teams that control their own destiny for a divisional title: New Orleans, Dallas
Teams that control their own destiny for a wild card birth: Minnesota

 

[misterchainsaw]

A lot less traffic in here. Big game for Los Angeles to try to avoid falling 2 games behind Minnesota. We could potentially see a lot of teams officially eliminated this week, especially with Minnesota and Green Bay wins. As always, clinching and elimination scenarios ignore scenarios with ties in them. The true intrigue here is the race for home field advantage, as 3 different teams now control their own destiny for the top spot. The Rams do have some import on a clinching scenario , but I'll update accordingly after tonight's game.

WEEK 13:
1. San Francisco - 10-1
2. New Orleans - 9-2
3. Green Bay - 8-3 (Holds H2H tiebreaker over MIN)
4. Dallas 6-5
------------------------------------------
5. Seattle 9-2
6. Minnesota - 8-3
____________________________________
7. LA RAms - 6-5
8. Chicago - 5-6 (Holds Conference Record tiebreaker over PHI and owns it over CAR)
9. Philadelphia - 5-6 (Holds Conference Record tiebreaker over CAR)
10. Carolina - 5-6
11. Tampa Bay - 4-7
12. Detroit - 3-7-1 (Holds Conference Record tiebreaker over ARI)
13. Arizona - 3-7-1
14. Atlanta - 3-8
15. NY Giants - 2-9 (Holds H2H tiebreaker over WSH) *Cannot earn Wild Card birth*
16. Washington - 2-9 *Cannot earn Wild Card Birth

ELIMINATION SCENARIOS:
- NY Giants are eliminated with a loss
- NY Giants are eliminated with a DAL Win
- Washington is eliminated with a loss
- Washington is eliminated wtih a DAL Win
- Atlanta is eliminated with a loss
- Atlanta is eliminated with a MIN and GB Win
- Arizona is eliminated with a loss
- Arizona is eliminated with a MIN and GB Win
- Detroit is eliminated with a loss
- Detroit is eliminated with a MIN and GB Win
- Tampa Bay is eliminated with a loss, MIN win, and GB win

CLINCHING SCENARIOS:
- San Francisco clinches a wild card birth with a win and an LA Ram losses
- New Orleans clinches the NFC South with a win.

Teams that control their own destiny for the #1 seed: San Francisco, New Orleans, Seattle
Teams that control their own destiny for a bye: No additional teams
Teams that control their own destiny for a division title: Green Bay, Dallas, Minnesota
Teams that control their own destiny for a wild card: No additional teams

 

[Blitzkrug]

I'd say it's pretty much decided at this point. If the Rams lose tonight they're pretty much out of it. 2 games behind a Vikings team that show no signs of slowing down.

Hell even the NFC East might be a wrap given how beaten up the Eagles are.

 

[Canada4Gold]

Don't have the stupid crazy, worse than Miami SOV for ARI scenarios figured out yet. It's complex enough with a double tie and 2 teams that can clinch that it might not get figured out at all. But here is what I have for this week.

NO Clinches Division:
- NO Win
- NO Tie + CAR Loss/Tie

SF Clinches Playoff Spot:
- SF Win + (LAR Loss) + LAR Loss/Tie
- SF Win + (LAR Tie) + LAR Loss
- SF Tie + (LAR Loss) + LAR Loss

WAS Eliminated from Playoffs:
- WAS Loss
- WAS Tie + DAL Tie
- WAS Tie + PHI Win
- DAL Win

NYG Eliminated from Playoffs:
- NYG Loss
- NYG Tie + DAL Tie
- NYG Tie + PHI Win
- DAL Win

ATL Eliminated from Playoffs:
- ATL Loss/Tie
- MIN Win/Tie + GB Win/Tie

TB Eliminated from Playoffs:
- TB Loss + MIN Win/Tie + GB Win/Tie
- TB Tie + MIN Win + GB Win

DET Eliminated from Playoffs:
- DET Loss
- DET Tie + MIN Win/Tie
- MIN Win + GB Win/Tie

ARI Eliminated from Playoffs:
- ARI Loss
- ARI Tie + GB Win/Tie
- ARI Tie + PHI Loss/Tie + GB Clinches SOV
- ARI Tie + PHI Loss/Tie + CAR Clinches SOV
- GB Win + MIN Win/Tie
- GB Tie + MIN Win/Tie + PHI Loss/Tie + GB Clinches SOV
- GB Tie + MIN Win/Tie + PHI Loss/Tie + CAR Clinches SOV

 

[Captain Bowie]

I was expecting a loss tonight for the Rams, but after this we pretty much have to win out.

 

[StreetHawk]

I was expecting a loss tonight for the Rams, but after this we pretty much have to win out.

Minimum I think to make the WC is 10-6. Carolina and Chicago have no margin for error. Need to win out. SF and Sea have 10 and 9 wins. So the west will nail down a WC spot and likely play the East division winner in the PO.

Rams, down 28-6 at the half and looking like they will drop to 6-5. 2 games behind Minnesota.

 

[Marc the Habs Fan]

The problem for the Rams is that both the Pack and Vikes have at least 3 very winnable games left, on top of playing each other, so they both seem like locks to get to 11 wins.

GB: @ NYG, vs WSH, vs CHI, @ DET
MIN: vs DET, @ LAC, vs CHI

SEA may actually be the team they can catch because they play them and SEA's sched is not easy:

vs MIN, @ Rams, @ CAR, vs ARI, vs SF

 

[StreetHawk]

The problem for the Rams is that both the Pack and Vikes have at least 3 very winnable games left, on top of playing each other, so they both seem like locks to get to 11 wins.

GB: @ NYG, vs WSH, vs CHI, @ DET
MIN: vs DET, @ LAC, vs CHI

SEA may actually be the team they can catch because they play them and SEA's sched is not easy:

vs MIN, @ Rams, @ CAR, vs ARI, vs SF

Rams have @AZ, @SeA, DAL, @sf, AZ

I don't see LAR catching Seattle. This is the time of year where Seattle typically plays better under Carroll.

 

[Marc the Habs Fan]

I do not either.

I am just saying their only somewhat realistic chance is catching SEA. It's a small one (while it's very, very small for catching GB and MIN due to their sched's).

 

[Blitzkrug]

The Rams put the nail in their own coffin by getting hammered by the Ravens.

They still play the Niners, Seahawks and Cowboys. Two against the Cardinals as well.

i smell 8-8

 

[kingsholygrail]

The NFC is pretty much decided on who is getting in now isn't it? I know some teams are technically still in the hunt. I mean I guess just Philly in the division hunt.

 

[Bob Richards]

I can't count the Eagles out.

They have a game against Dallas left but outside of that their remaining opponents are the Giants x2, Redskins and Dolphins

 

[Roboturner913]

I liked the Eagles to win the East several weeks ago because of exactly that. Not hard to imagine Dallas going 2-3 over their final 5 while Philly could very conceivably go 4-1, just the way the schedule sets up.

 

[StreetHawk]

I can't count the Eagles out.

They have a game against Dallas left but outside of that their remaining opponents are the Giants x2, Redskins and Dolphins

Problem for Philly might be their conference record. Say they sweep NYG and Was and split Dallas. If their other NFC opponents they beat GB and Chi. Lost to Min, Det, Sea and Atl. So best case their NFC record is 7-5.

Dallas would have the same division record and have lost to NO, GB, Min and beat Det. So 1-3 right now. Have Chicago and LAR still.

If they beat both the bears and Rams and end the season tied record wise with Philly (assuming Philly wins their final head to head), Dallas would have the better conference record at 8-4.

 

[Quid Pro Clowe]

At least whichever NFC West team finishes with the 5th seed won't have to go play a team with 4 less wins in sub-0 weather like SF did a few years ago vs GB.

 

[Trap Jesus]

Such a competitive conference. There's a situation where the 6 seed is 12-4 and the 49ers finish as the 5 seed at 13-3.

 

[Pestilence]

Wonder what's the best record not to get a first-round bye

 

[misterchainsaw]

Problem for Philly might be their conference record. Say they sweep NYG and Was and split Dallas. If their other NFC opponents they beat GB and Chi. Lost to Min, Det, Sea and Atl. So best case their NFC record is 7-5.

Dallas would have the same division record and have lost to NO, GB, Min and beat Det. So 1-3 right now. Have Chicago and LAR still.

If they beat both the bears and Rams and end the season tied record wise with Philly (assuming Philly wins their final head to head), Dallas would have the better conference record at 8-4.

Dallas beating the Rams would eliminate conference record as a tiebreaker, because Philadelphia would have a better common opponents record in any case where the two teams had the same record, which comes before conference record in intra-divisional tiebrekaers.

If Dallas loses to the Rams, then the tiebreakers could make it to conference record.