Next seasons points for Draisaitl

[Little Fury]

Can you tell me with confidence what his baseline in points is though? Would you be able to feel confident betting he won’t score more than 80 or betting he will score more than 90? If the answer to either of those questions is no then we still don’t really know what his baseline is.

That's not how baselines work? Baseline to me is a reasonable expectation for his average performance. But there's implicit acknowledgement that it could vary over any given year. Based on his career to date, it seems reasonable to think he's a "true" 75-80 point player. SH% fluctuations and quality of teammates could have that number go up or down, but I'm not really expecting him to be a consistent threat to score 90-100 points. Very few players are.

 

[Cloned]

That's not how baselines work? Baseline to me is a reasonable expectation for his average performance. But there's implicit acknowledgement that it could vary over any given year. Based on his career to date, it seems reasonable to think he's a "true" 75-80 point player. SH% fluctuations and quality of teammates could have that number go up or down, but I'm not really expecting him to be a consistent threat to score 90-100 points. Very few players are.

I’m just saying there isn’t a lot of evidence that would make me lean decisively in the 70-80 range vs. the 80-90 range. And to me that means we just don’t know yet.

 

[PaPaDee]

Way to early to tell. Depends what happens in the off season. He should continue to improve, but the team around him will impact his point production.

 

[Faelko]

He's not gonna score on almost a quarter of his shots again. Take the under.

PPG is fine, but 100+ points is a pipedream.

The optimist in me thinks/hopes the Oilers get a legit winger for him in the offseason. His goal total will be less but his assists will increase.

92 points: 37G-55A

 

[Little Fury]

I’m just saying there isn’t a lot of evidence that would make me lean decisively in the 70-80 range vs. the 80-90 range. And to me that means we just don’t know yet.

Let's split the difference and say 85-95, then.

 

[The Nuge]

Three full seasons is a pretty decent sample size to establish a baseline level of scoring ability. His previous average SH% of 14.7% is already indicative of a better than average finisher, so it's reasonable to expect him to be a regular 30 goal scorer going forward. But this year is an obvious outlier in that department. points wise, there's a lot of confounding factors like how much time he plays with McDavid, and whether that combo will continue to do the bulk of the heavy lifting going forward or if they'll look to Leon to finally drive his own unit.

First 2 years - 0.61 PPG
Next 2 years - 0.92 PPG
This year - 1.25 PPG

Obviously his goals will go down, but with the steady growth in his game, you can’t really say we know what to expect out of him.

Just look at Kucherov’s progression

First year - 0.43 PPG
Next 2 - 0.82 PPG
Next 2 - 1.20
This year - 1.61

 

[Cloned]

Let's split the difference and say 85-95, then.

That’s probably fair from my POV, but did you mean 75-85 from yours?

 

[Little Fury]

First 2 years - 0.61 PPG
Next 2 years - 0.92 PPG
This year - 1.25 PPG

Obviously his goals will go down, but with the steady growth in his game, you can’t really say we know what to expect out of him.

Why assume his assists will go up? Is he going to be playing with better teammates than he is now?

 

[Little Fury]

That’s probably fair from my POV, but did you mean 75-85 from yours?

I'm willing to adjust my expectations upward but reserve the right to say I told you so if he falls short.

 

[TopShelfGloveSide]

Why assume his assists will go up? Is he going to be playing with better teammates than he is now?

I really really hope so

 

[Little Fury]

I really really hope so

Better than McDavid?

 

[bone]

It's tough to say where he ends up especially if he eventually takes on his own line full time. However, many of his goals/points this year are on the power play, and you'd think they'll continue to load that up anyways even if they do separate the two 5 on 5, so I doubt separating them 5 on 5 leads to gigantic dips in production.

Using his baseline shooting percentage prior to this year, he'd still have about 25 goals this year. He also had 29 two years ago, and 25 last year which was considered a down year overall in his performance, so 30 goals seems to be a realistic line for him.

He's also put up (or will in this year's case) 45 or more assists 3 years in a row making his realistic line for assists to be 45-50.

We've got ourselves a 75-80 player who should be close to 30 goals on an average season. Poor seasons could dip a little lower, but good seasons will be higher. That's a quality player.

If he repeats this year's number next year, that line probably creeps up a bit more.

 

[TopShelfGloveSide]

Better than McDavid?

If we had better wingers he wouldn’t need to play on McDavids line.

 

[ohheyhemsky]

My guess is 79-82.

 

[Cloned]

I'm willing to adjust my expectations upward but reserve the right to say I told you so if he falls short.

To be fair, my expectation is around 80-85.

 

[Little Fury]

If we had better wingers he wouldn’t need to play on McDavids line.

My point is he's playing with the best player in the league, there's no upgrade from that.

 

[The Nuge]

Why assume his assists will go up? Is he going to be playing with better teammates than he is now?

His pace the last couple years would have him on pace for like 34 goals this year. Without his assists going up, that’s like 86 points. Meaning a 70 point “baseline” based on what he did as he was developing isn’t necessarily accurate

 

[Aerchon]

Points wise he has already met what I projected he could get at his peak and still has many games to go.

Personally I don't care how many points he gets. I would prefer him to focus on his already solid 2 way game.

Next year if he is around ppg again but +20 or greater I will be an extremely happy camper.

 

[Little Fury]

His pace the last couple years would have him on pace for like 34 goals this year. Without his assists going up, that’s like 86 points. Meaning a 70 point “baseline” based on what he did as he was developing isn’t necessarily accurate

I think it could bump up or down depending on whether he's a C or a top line winger with 97. And for the sake of the team, it might even be better if he scores less in a less complimentary role. I'd be fine with him as a a 70-ish point 2C driving his own line.

 

[The Nuge]

My point is he's playing with the best player in the league, there's no upgrade from that.

There’s still another player on the line. If you change Kassian out for say Nyquist, that’s an upgrade

I think it could bump up or down depending on whether he's a C or a top line winger with 97. And for the sake of the team, it might even be better if he scores less in a less complimentary role. I'd be fine with him as a a 70-ish point 2C driving his own line.

The thing is, if he’s playing as the 2C, it means we upgraded our wingers, so he wouldn’t still be playing with 4th liners. And even then, he’d still play PP1 with Connor

 

[Stoneman89]

My point is he's playing with the best player in the league, there's no upgrade from that.

But a good chunk of those points have come from the PP, as well as 3 on 3 OT. That isn't going to change. And if they get a decent defencemen on that PP, I would look for those totals to bump up.

 

[McDavid87]

a lot of people keep saying stuff about his point production being so high because of McDavid. While that's partially true, you can't ignore that fact that you have to know how to play with McDavid as well.

The 2 compliment eachother very well.

 

[McDavid87]

Elite players are subject to regression to the mean just like anyone else.

Or he can continue to keep going up until his prime

 

[CornKicker]

hes on pace for 20 PPGs, its fair to expect the oilers PP to continue to get better as the 5 guys on it will not change much over the next decade.

hes going to be a 40/60 player and some years he will have 35/70.

 

[GhostfaceWu]

Funny you should mention the Golden Knights since William Karlsson is a perfect example of what I'm talking about.

last season: 43 goals, 23.4% SH%
this season: 19 goals, 13.7% SH%

Brace yourself: regression is coming.

1 players highest point totals before that season was 25 points while the other one will be coming off back-to-back-to-back 70+ pt seasons you can't compare him to a guy who has one outlier in his career with a guy who has 3 seasons of high end production.