Next 3 years- Wheeler vs Laine

[Paris in Flames]

How does that show, in your opinion? You're just looking at total points? I could understand that argument, but would also have to point out that it's completely void of any context, thus not very useful from analytics point of view.

Well...

- Wheeler has 27 more points
- Laine is inconsistent af with 56% of his points in 25% of the season and kinda useless for the other 75%
- Wheeler brings other elements outside of points to his game that you don't see in Laine.

 

[Psych0dad]

Because you're basically wishing wheeler regresses badly

You're pretty high on laine tho and wheeler is significantly better

Oh god no, I wish he would get better but I am a realist and I understand how biology works. He's past his prime. He has to regress, everyone does. I don't dislike him, you shouldn't get that from pointing out he is human. I wish he defied the odds and somehow became better past his prime but that's not how father time works. I really, REALLY hope he would be worth 8.5 million a year for the next 5 years but my wishes have nothing to do with how realistic that is. It's not realistic, it's a pipedream. And I'm not going to be repeating that pipedream as my prediction, because I can't predict something that unrealistic. There's no reason to think it will happen so there's no reason to say it. My "moral support" won't make him a better player or a younger one.

I really don't have anything against Wheeler. I'm just not seeing the emperors new clothes that so many claim he has on. People (I think intentionally) ignore his weaknesses and it's weird at the age and position (captain) he is in.

Yes I am high on Laine, have been since I saw what he could do at 17 years old. I haven't seen a player with higher potential, mainly due his best of all time shot. It tips the scales drastically in his favor when comparing to other players. The ability to extend the "high danger shooting area" is something others don't have to the same magnitude as Laine. Brett Hull kinda did, but he wasn't as versatile in his shot and less accurate too. And he lacked skills that Laine has, like elite passing and hockey IQ. I understand his weaknesses, they are mostly on the physical side right now and that will be rectified with age and hard work, which he does.

Wheeler is a bit of a dinosaur, the prototype of a north-south power forward. He's no Cam Neely though, since he has a muffin of a shot and lately has become a playmaker only. He is good for dump and chase hockey, can often make it first to the corners and is physical there, but puck skills are lacking and he isn't as good of a possession player as many view him as, and he is much worse defensively than most see him as. Great effort level and respect of teammates alone doesn't win against the higher skill level. Wheeler would not have 70 pts a season at this point of his career, if he played 2nd line minutes with the center Laine has had to play with. Laine would be 100+ pts with Scheifele with first line minutes in a full healthy season.

 

[Peggy]

Oh god no, I wish he would get better but I am a realist and I understand how biology works. He's past his prime. He has to regress, everyone does. I don't dislike him, you shouldn't get that from pointing out he is human. I wish he defied the odds and somehow became better past his prime but that's not how father time works. I really, REALLY hope he would be worth 8.5 million a year for the next 5 years but my wishes have nothing to do with how realistic that is. It's not realistic, it's a pipedream. And I'm not going to be repeating that pipedream as my prediction, because I can't predict something that unrealistic. There's no reason to think it will happen so there's no reason to say it. My "moral support" won't make him a better player or a younger one.

I really don't have anything against Wheeler. I'm just not seeing the emperors new clothes that so many claim he has on. People (I think intentionally) ignore his weaknesses and it's weird at the age and position (captain) he is in.

Yes I am high on Laine, have been since I saw what he could do at 17 years old. I haven't seen a player with higher potential, mainly due his best of all time shot. It tips the scales drastically in his favor when comparing to other players. The ability to extend the "high danger shooting area" is something others don't have to the same magnitude as Laine. Brett Hull kinda did, but he wasn't as versatile in his shot and less accurate too. And he lacked skills that Laine has, like elite passing and hockey IQ. I understand his weaknesses, they are mostly on the physical side right now and that will be rectified with age and hard work, which he does.

Wheeler is a bit of a dinosaur, the prototype of a north-south power forward. He's no Cam Neely though, since he has a muffin of a shot and lately has become a playmaker only. He is good for dump and chase hockey, can often make it first to the corners and is physical there, but puck skills are lacking and he isn't as good of a possession player as many view him as, and he is much worse defensively than most see him as. Great effort level and respect of teammates alone doesn't win against the higher skill level. Wheeler would not have 70 pts a season at this point of his career, if he played 2nd line minutes with the center Laine has had to play with. Laine would be 100+ pts with Scheifele with first line minutes in a full healthy season.

Tl;dr how often do you see wheeler lose the puck on his offensive side?

 

[Psych0dad]

Tl;dr how often do you see wheeler lose the puck on his offensive side?

All the time, often on PP. An example from couple of games ago, which I found pretty much descriptive of the whole Wheeler debacle. He got a pass in the neutral zone and had speed so he beat the defenseman to the corner, turned back to shake off the defenseman (but he followed), half boards he does another turn and goes back to corner, defenseman follows. Wheeler turns again protecting the puck and goes back half boards and this time there's an opponent and he ends up losing the possession and opponent is now racing the other way. The next stoppage, the announcers and director bring that play up, and they praise Wheeler for how great he is, totally not commenting the play at hand but just singing his praises. And I am sitting there watching the same situation saying "....but he lost possession when he could have gotten rid of it safely several times". It just doesn't fit the narrative, so they don't call him out on those.

How about stupid penalties? Since Buff has smartened up, Wheeler is now the king of unnecessary and stupid penalties. And he does not get called out on it, even though he is captain. He puts the team in a bad position with those penalties and often they are result of bad positioning or carelessness. If Brendan Lemieux or some other younger chap takes those penalties, his icetime is reduced or sits in the press box.

What about the shots he takes on PP that almost always come out of the offensive zone as a result? When he shoots from close up (opponents happily give him room in the slot to shoot because they have no respect for his shot and scared shitless of Laine and Scheifele) and misses the top corner, it's straight out of the zone most of the time. There's no point guy on that half wall to stop it. I've been hoping he would just shoot low for rebounds so we didn't lose zone so often.

 

[JetsHomer]

That's just not how human biology works.

He went from a 70 pt player to a 90 pt player when Laine joined the group and Scheifele grew up to be a star. It's not his growth. His circumstances got better.

But now he's having his best year on pace for 105+ points while Laine is having his easily worst year? how does that fit your narrative that Wheeler is a product of Laine?

 

[Psych0dad]

But now he's having his best year on pace for 105+ points while Laine is having his easily worst year? how does that fit your narrative that Wheeler is a product of Laine?

Well the whole point has been that:

A) Laine and Wheeler have a very different icetime distribution
B) Laine and Wheeler have a major difference in linemates, specifically the center
C) Laine can outperform Wheelers production PACE, meaning he outperforms Wheeler when icetime accumulation is taken out of the picture.
D) Laine can produce far more than Wheeler can, if put in the same situation (first line minutes with Scheifele). We have direct evidence of this.

Wheeler is not a product of Laine. Wheeler was in the league waaaaay before Laine and made his own career, as a max 70 pt winger. Now he is a 90-100pt winger because he has the best shooter in the game putting pucks in from 40 feet out where it's relatively easy to pass to and almost impossible for anyone not named Patrik Laine to put pucks in with regularity. Due to this monster shot, opponents PK formation has to adjust to putting more pressure on a player far from the normal dangerous scoring area. This means that there's only 3 people to cover the main scoring area, the slot. When Scheifele stands in the middle of the slot (prime scoring area in hockey), it's almost as deadly as Laine from further out. So they have to try and take both of these guys and it's not easy.

You can of course fantasize that Wheeler just defies physics and gets better with age. Or you can face the facts that show his PP production went through the roof and pretty much doubled after he got this supporting cast to work with. If you want to give that to Wheeler anyway, go right ahead and think that he just magically got better with age at that particular point in time that just happens to coincide with Laine's arrival and Scheifeles growth into a superstar center. I can't lie to myself and say Wheeler got better, I know the facts and they point into circumstances getting better.

Laine will keep doing bad as long as he is with Little and limited usage. I'm in no way surprised that he has worse numbers now than previous seasons (because the season isn't done)....I bet if you compared last season until this point, you would find he has actually gotten better playing with Little too. What changed his numbers to tolerable last year, was the rest of the year he played with Stastny and went on a record breaking tear. He goes on record breaking tears with anyone but Little, and it doesn't even happen gradually, the change happens over night.

If Laine gets a compatible center again, he will just go on a tear and then his total numbers for the season will rise to the level of previous season or better. If he is stuck with Little and low icetime for the rest of the season, then this will be the first full season with Little, and the expectation is that it should be much, much lower than the other seasons where he got to play at least some stretches with compatible linemates.


Here's a question. How many points and +/- have these two accumulated 6 on 5/5 on 6. If you check that, you might see that Wheeler benefits disproportionately from always being there when opponents goalie has been pulled, Laine gets that assignment almost never, only if chasing a hat trick or if they pull the goalie before jets get to change. Laine is, naturally, always out if Jets have their goalie pulled.

I bet you'd be shocked at those numbers, especially last season playoffs. Wheeler was like -1 or so at some point 5 on 5, and Laine was +8. And yet in the actual +/- I believe Wheeler had better. That goes to show you how big of a difference that makes if you play a lot with goalies out. Which happens more in playoffs.

 

[Peggy]

All the time, often on PP. An example from couple of games ago, which I found pretty much descriptive of the whole Wheeler debacle. He got a pass in the neutral zone and had speed so he beat the defenseman to the corner, turned back to shake off the defenseman (but he followed), half boards he does another turn and goes back to corner, defenseman follows. Wheeler turns again protecting the puck and goes back half boards and this time there's an opponent and he ends up losing the possession and opponent is now racing the other way. The next stoppage, the announcers and director bring that play up, and they praise Wheeler for how great he is, totally not commenting the play at hand but just singing his praises. And I am sitting there watching the same situation saying "....but he lost possession when he could have gotten rid of it safely several times". It just doesn't fit the narrative, so they don't call him out on those.

How about stupid penalties? Since Buff has smartened up, Wheeler is now the king of unnecessary and stupid penalties. And he does not get called out on it, even though he is captain. He puts the team in a bad position with those penalties and often they are result of bad positioning or carelessness. If Brendan Lemieux or some other younger chap takes those penalties, his icetime is reduced or sits in the press box.

What about the shots he takes on PP that almost always come out of the offensive zone as a result? When he shoots from close up (opponents happily give him room in the slot to shoot because they have no respect for his shot and scared ****less of Laine and Scheifele) and misses the top corner, it's straight out of the zone most of the time. There's no point guy on that half wall to stop it. I've been hoping he would just shoot low for rebounds so we didn't lose zone so often.

Okay. I stopped reading at "all the time" hes one of the best in the league at converting his side

Never worried when wheeler has the puck on his side of the ice. Big body, knows how to protect the puck and keep it in deep

 

[Peggy]

But now he's having his best year on pace for 105+ points while Laine is having his easily worst year? how does that fit your narrative that Wheeler is a product of Laine?

I've answered the question for him already

Guy criticizes wheeler for being a 70 point winger, but always blames little for laine's production.
But it's not acceptable when wheeler was playing Ladd and little

Seems to choose what he believes

 

[Psych0dad]

Guy criticizes wheeler for being a 70 point winger, but always blames little for laine's production.
But it's not acceptable when wheeler was playing Ladd and little

It is entirely acceptable for Wheeler to be a 70pt winger with Little and Ladd. Today, he would have a better winger than Ladd but worse center because Little has had injuries and regressed a bit from his best days. Still very serviceable though.

It's not acceptable for Laine to play with someone who keeps him to such low production. It's bad for the team and bad for Laine.

Laine's ceiling is very different from Wheelers. Wheeler was a career 70pt max player before this new circumstance. Laine was that at 18-19 with questionable usage. And was already way more goal heavy on those 70ish pts than Wheeler ever was. Completely different pedigrees of players. Wheeler was basically nothing at 20, playing in college.

Laine from 18 to 20 has been challenging Gretzkys, Carsons and Hawerchuks scoring numbers from 2nd line with a center he has no chem with. Nobody else has done anything like that.

And of course the arguments will remain the same, until the conditions have changed. If Jets get a new, suitable center at trade deadline or finally reunite their best line with Laine and Scheifele, then there is no excuse to use.

I didn't have to use the "excuse" of Little, when Laine played with other centers. My prediction and my point was verified with those times away from Little. Laine was on fire even with Copp as his center and Copp is between 4th line and pressbox in todays Jets.

If it wasn't about Little, then Laine's slumps would not happen ONLY when playing with Little. That's logic.

Wheeler didn't have a 90 pt season in 16-17. Reason being, they dropped Laine to PP2 when he was scoring in bunches. They even put him in as RD on PP2 so he couldn't shoot onetimers. Had Laine stayed in that PP1 all season, Wheeler would now have two 90pt seasons. Well, he will soon anyway if he stays healthy this season.

 

[Romang67]

Let's hope not lol

Are you a jets fan? Or just a laine fan?

Given that Wheeler is about to have his 6th season eclipsing Lucic's highest point total, is a completely different style player than Lucic, and clearly doesn't rely as much on pure athleticism as Lucic does, the comparison between Lucic (who for the record is two years younger than Wheeler and has been steadily regressing in all areas of play for a few years now) and Wheeler does seem pretty ridiculous.

That's not even touching on the fact that McDavid is a much better player than Laine.

 

[Peggy]

It is entirely acceptable for Wheeler to be a 70pt winger with Little and Ladd. Today, he would have a better winger than Ladd but worse center because Little has had injuries and regressed a bit from his best days. Still very serviceable though.

It's not acceptable for Laine to play with someone who keeps him to such low production. It's bad for the team and bad for Laine.

Laine's ceiling is very different from Wheelers. Wheeler was a career 70pt max player before this new circumstance. Laine was that at 18-19 with questionable usage. And was already way more goal heavy on those 70ish pts than Wheeler ever was. Completely different pedigrees of players. Wheeler was basically nothing at 20, playing in college.

Laine from 18 to 20 has been challenging Gretzkys, Carsons and Hawerchuks scoring numbers from 2nd line with a center he has no chem with. Nobody else has done anything like that.

And of course the arguments will remain the same, until the conditions have changed. If Jets get a new, suitable center at trade deadline or finally reunite their best line with Laine and Scheifele, then there is no excuse to use.

I didn't have to use the "excuse" of Little, when Laine played with other centers. My prediction and my point was verified with those times away from Little. Laine was on fire even with Copp as his center and Copp is between 4th line and pressbox in todays Jets.

If it wasn't about Little, then Laine's slumps would not happen ONLY when playing with Little. That's logic.

Its clear right now laine woukdnt ne the same if he was playing with Ladd snd little tho
.
Laine is on pace for less than 70 points right now on a stacked team

 

[Psych0dad]

Its clear right now laine woukdnt ne the same if he was playing with Ladd snd little tho
.
Laine is on pace for less than 70 points right now on a stacked team

It doesn't matter if the team is stacked, if it's stacked against him. He gets the least fitting center out of all the options. He can easily do more damage than anyone else in Jets roster when paired with Scheifele. Much, much more than Wheeler for example.

The reason why he isn't used in that spot is not about hockey. It's about business. Same reason why he was dropped out of 1st line when he was tearing the league a new one. Same reason they dropped him to PP2 (and put him RD so he couldn't shoot onetimers) in his rookie season after leading the NHL in scoring. Same reason why it's the 3rd season playing mostly with Little, when everyone and their dog knows he is a completely different monster away from Little.

Jets don't want that monster out, they are on a budget.

 

[Romang67]

It doesn't matter if the team is stacked, if it's stacked against him. He gets the least fitting center out of all the options. He can easily do more damage than anyone else in Jets roster when paired with Scheifele. Much, much more than Wheeler for example.

The reason why he isn't used in that spot is not about hockey. It's about business. Same reason why he was dropped out of 1st line when he was tearing the league a new one. Same reason they dropped him to PP2 (and put him RD so he couldn't shoot onetimers) in his rookie season after leading the NHL in scoring. Same reason why it's the 3rd season playing mostly with Little, when everyone and their dog knows he is a completely different monster away from Little.

Jets don't want that monster out, they are on a budget.

Nonsense.

 

[Psych0dad]

Nonsense.

Facts. Which part do you dispute? Just the obvious conclusion?

 

[member 157595]

Hook, line and sinker.

 

[Romang67]

Facts. Which part do you dispute? Just the obvious conclusion?

The nonsensical speculation. So all of it.

Speculation isn't fact.

 

[Psych0dad]

The nonsensical speculation. So all of it.

Speculation isn't fact.

So you don't agree with the conclusion I presented, but you can't dispute the facts that support it. Ok, fine, you can draw any other conclusion from it. This is mine. I don't see any other reasonable conclusions for it, anymore. Teams don't usually shoot themselves in the foot unless it's for a reason. Last season I was still in the "Maurice is just incompetent and overvalues vets" last season, but I have now concluded that they do have all the data available and they KNOW it doesn't work...choosing to go with what doesn't work, is a clear sign of design. Hence, I don't put it on Maurice's inability anymore, I view it as a savings plan. It's the only explanation that makes sense when considering the data we have.

 

[Jetcetera]

Wheeler is an anomaly. Dude just keeps getting better.

 

[Psych0dad]

Wheeler is an anomaly. Dude just keeps getting better.

There's more rational explanations for his late rising numbers, than biological anomaly. What, he is Benjamin Button?

 

[Gsus]

Laine today and 3 years from now it's gonna be a question like asking Lucic or McDavid.

To be honest even though Laine would play like he did in november, it still wouldn't be like "Lucic or McDavid". This is a hilarious take from you and you know it.

I believe that Laine will bounce back, but lets not pretend that Wheeler isn't any good.

 

[Psych0dad]

To be honest even though Laine would play like he did in november, it still wouldn't be like "Lucic or McDavid". This is a hilarious take from you and you know it.

I believe that Laine will bounce back, but lets not pretend that Wheeler isn't any good.

Yeah I am not trying to say Wheeler=Lucic, or that he isn't any good. Wheeler is not nearly as regressed as Lucic is and has a better end of career ahead of him for sure. I'm just making a point that the comparison isn't favorable to Wheeler today and in 3 years it will be a laughable question.

 

[Gsus]

Yeah I am not trying to say Wheeler=Lucic, or that he isn't any good. Wheeler is not nearly as regressed as Lucic is and has a better end of career ahead of him for sure. I'm just making a point that the comparison isn't favorable to Wheeler today and in 3 years it will be a laughable question.

Wheeler could be 50ish pt guy in 3 years. Lets hope that Laine is 80pt, 50 goal guy by then.

 

[Psych0dad]

Wheeler could be 50ish pt guy in 3 years. Lets hope that Laine is 80pt, 50 goal guy by then.

Yeah, I'm hoping much higher than that. I think he had a stretch over 2 months with over 1.35 ppg in his rookie season when playing with Scheifele. I think he is a much better player today, and in 3 years he will be entering his prime. I expect a 100+ pts immediately first season with Scheifele and first line duties. I expected that last season too, had he been playing with Scheif. He certainly has that in him, has shown it every time given the chance, so we just have to wait for a season where they fully utilize him.

Wheeler might drop to 50 if he plays 2nd line and isn't in the main PP. As long as they have Laine and Scheifele their main PP will be a weapon, and who ever gets to be the playmaker in it, will amass a lot of points. In 3 years, I suspect they have found a better fitting piece on it (they have Vesalainen coming up who is very good on the right side half boards and his shot is great from there so they would have 3 shooters instead of 2 up front. Then teams could not just allow one guy with a muffin shot to walk in, there wouldn't be any muffins around.

 

[Romang67]

So you don't agree with the conclusion I presented, but you can't dispute the facts that support it. Ok, fine, you can draw any other conclusion from it. This is mine. I don't see any other reasonable conclusions for it, anymore. Teams don't usually shoot themselves in the foot unless it's for a reason. Last season I was still in the "Maurice is just incompetent and overvalues vets" last season, but I have now concluded that they do have all the data available and they KNOW it doesn't work...choosing to go with what doesn't work, is a clear sign of design. Hence, I don't put it on Maurice's inability anymore, I view it as a savings plan. It's the only explanation that makes sense when considering the data we have.

I'd say that even entertaining the idea that the Jets are actively trying to make the team worse, when Laine quite clearly isn't even on the level where he can drive his own line, is quite ridiculous. The Jets reacted to Laine's November by changing exactly nothing to worsen his situation, even though he was pacing for a career year after that month, and despite nothing changing he started performing much worse after November.

To offer evidence like "the Jets removed a rookie from the 1st line" and actually think that this proves that the Jets are trying to sabotage Laine is obviously also ridiculous.

So as I said, speculation isn't fact, and what you're proposing is nonsense.

 

[Gsus]

I expect a 100+ pts immediately first season with Scheifele and first line duties. I expected that last season too, had he been playing with Scheif. He certainly has that in him, has shown it every time given the chance, so we just have to wait for a season where they fully utilize him.

Laine has 100pts in him, but with his play of late it's not going to happen even if you'd put him with Scheifele. Probably another healthy summer and a fresh start next year could do that. It's kind of funny to talk about what he's capable of because he looks so disinterested at times. I know part of it is that lanky skating style, but he just needs to get his feet moving more. He's never going to move like Wheeler whose legs just eat the ice but with long strides he should have the tools to do damage, like Eichel whose stride is so powerful.