Good, I'm tired of picking all these inexperienced kids.
Committed to Umass Lowell
ANOTHER goalie? I mean, BPA, if that's who you think this is, but would've preferred to hear they took a falling Russian or the like...
I left a bunch of posts here showing how rarely goalies truly succeed, so you always need to load up on them - not 3-4 prospects, but literally a dozen so long as you're not spending first rounders on them. In essence, a below average forward is still a valuable 3rd liner, but a below average goalie is a backup who's a dime a dozen and even an above average goalie is a pretty bad starter. Keep drafting goalies in later rounds until one hopefully proves himself a competent replacement for Hank. If not, eventually we'll need to start drafting goalies in the first round, as we did twice [Blackburn and Montoya] to try to replace Richter. Those two goalies were both top-10 picks. I don't want to have to waste multiple future top-10 picks on goalies who go bust much more than other top-10 picks, so better off spending 5-7 rounders round now.
I left a bunch of posts here showing how rarely goalies truly succeed, so you always need to load up on them - not 3-4 prospects, but literally a dozen so long as you're not spending first rounders on them. In essence, a below average forward is still a valuable 3rd liner, but a below average goalie is a backup who's a dime a dozen and even an above average goalie is a pretty bad starter. Keep drafting goalies in later rounds until one hopefully proves himself a competent replacement for Hank. If not, eventually we'll need to start drafting goalies in the first round, as we did twice [Blackburn and Montoya] to try to replace Richter. Those two goalies were both top-10 picks. I don't want to have to waste multiple future top-10 picks on goalies who go bust much more than other top-10 picks, so better off spending 5-7 rounders round now.
Shesterkin, Skapski, Halvy, Huska, Wall, that's 5, but none in the first two rounds. Keep reaching for goalies in future drafts. Always take at least one.
I left a bunch of posts here showing how rarely goalies truly succeed, so you always need to load up on them - not 3-4 prospects, but literally a dozen so long as you're not spending first rounders on them. In essence, a below average forward is still a valuable 3rd liner, but a below average goalie is a backup who's a dime a dozen and even an above average goalie is a pretty bad starter. Keep drafting goalies in later rounds until one hopefully proves himself a competent replacement for Hank. If not, eventually we'll need to start drafting goalies in the first round, as we did twice [Blackburn and Montoya] to try to replace Richter. Those two goalies were both top-10 picks. I don't want to have to waste multiple future top-10 picks on goalies who go bust much more than other top-10 picks, so better off spending 5-7 rounders round now.
Shesterkin, Skapski, Halvy, Huska, Wall, that's 5, but none in the first two rounds. Keep reaching for goalies in future drafts. Always take at least one.
If Vegas were running odds on whether Antti Raanta would get picked in the expansion draft, and they gave 20-1 odds that he would, I would bet hard that he wouldn't.And don't forget, there's a really good chance that we'll lose Raanta in the expansion draft. If not, he'll likely be gone the year after anyway as he'll be looking for a starting gig somewhere, or more money at least.
If Vegas were running odds on whether Antti Raanta would get picked in the expansion draft, and they gave 20-1 odds that he would, I would bet hard that he wouldn't.
If it were me, I would be very unenthused about picking up a 28-year old, steady backup when there are likely to be many more higher upside options available.They have to select 3 goalies. They may not select him as their #1, but I could see them taking him as a backup.
Commitment is for 17-18, so he'll probably be in the USHL or BCHL or something next season.
So this was an argument I was having in one of the draft day discussion threads in terms of drafting a goalie late. I thought that if you were drafting a goalie late, that it was probably just better to take a skater.
This is a very arbitrary success measure, and I'd point everyone again to the chart that Burtch tweeted out here:
As it uses actual stats to determine goalie value by draft pick #
This chart below is a simple count, and the determination of success is if the player has appeared in 82 games or more at the NHL level. The chart is for all drafts since the year 2000.
I'd argue there is some sample size bias in here since there are much fewer goalies selected than skaters especially in rounds 8 and 9 there. I could go back further in time, but I don't feel like doing that.