Confirmed with Link: New York Rangers 6th Round Pick #174 OA - Tyler Wall (G)

[silverfish]

There also hasn't been a 8th or 9th round since 2004 i believe.

Right, hence the small sample size that won't change unless I keep going back and I don't feel like it

 

[Igor Shestyorkin]

I left a bunch of posts here showing how rarely goalies truly succeed, so you always need to load up on them - not 3-4 prospects, but literally a dozen so long as you're not spending first rounders on them. In essence, a below average forward is still a valuable 3rd liner, but a below average goalie is a backup who's a dime a dozen and even an above average goalie is a pretty bad starter. Keep drafting goalies in later rounds until one hopefully proves himself a competent replacement for Hank. If not, eventually we'll need to start drafting goalies in the first round, as we did twice [Blackburn and Montoya] to try to replace Richter. Those two goalies were both top-10 picks. I don't want to have to waste multiple future top-10 picks on goalies who go bust much more than other top-10 picks, so better off spending 5-7 rounders round now.

Shesterkin, Skapski, Halvy, Huska, Wall, that's 5, but none in the first two rounds. Keep reaching for goalies in future drafts. Always take at least one.

Halvy was a 2nd round pick.

 

[UAGoalieGuy]

Right, hence the small sample size that won't change unless I keep going back and I don't feel like it

Unacceptable! I wanted a detailed analysis for the last 25 years!

 

[silverfish]

Unacceptable! I wanted a detailed analysis for the last 25 years!

I think the Burtch chart goes back to 1986. And it's infinitely more useful than my analysis.

But, people are quick to just shout out: "Hank!" "Brian Elliott!" "Pekka Rinne!" as if they are the rule and not the exception

 

[darko]

"Stone-walled"
"No Sam, his name is Tyler"

 

[NorthHockey]

Puzzled by this pick. He's ranked 30th by NHL central scouting in North American goalies and played Junior B hockey. There were several goalies available in the top 5 in either North American or European goalies. Rangers went way off the charts! What happened here?

 

[Hobgoblin Steve]

That goalie is a wall!

 

[UAGoalieGuy]

Puzzled by this pick. He's ranked 30th by NHL central scouting in North American goalies and played Junior B hockey. There were several goalies available in the top 5 in either North American or European goalies. Rangers went way off the charts! What happened here?

Alliere probably saw something in him he liked.

 

[Bluenote13]

Alliere probably saw something in him he liked.

Nope.

His coach from the Ontario league is an old connection of Gorton through his Blue Jacket days. Come on Rangerboy, I'm doin' ya job here !

 

[Thirty One]

Nope.

His coach from the Ontario league is an old connection of Gorton through his Blue Jacket days. Come on Rangerboy, I'm doin' ya job here !

Gorton had Blue Jacket days?

 

[Bluenote13]

Gorton had Blue Jacket days?

Oops, Bruins, he trades so much with the BJ's I's confused.....

 

[Revel]

He's starting this coming season.

http://goriverhawks.com/news/2016/6...iver-hawk-freshmen-selected-in-nhl-draft.aspx

He'll be battling it out with another incoming freshmen who was drafted but the Ducks last year in the sixth round and two sophmore goalies.

Although the out going senior looks like he played every game.

The outgoing Senior was a beast and signed by the Anaheim Ducks just recently. The only guy to get playing time other than him (Kevin Boyle) was Christoffer Hernberg, a kid from Finland with a great resume in the Finnish Junior Leagues and who played well in the 2 games he stafrted for Lowell this past season. My guess is that Christoffer Hernberg will have the starting job and be very hard to grab it from.Wall has his work cut out for him....

 

[Bluenote13]

Carter Hutton, Hellebuyck, Boyle. Good goalie school.

 

[The Gloaming]

He's going to build a Wall, and make the other team pay for it.

Sorry, couldn't help myself.

 

[Ori]

You can never draft enough goalies - we had some great goalies here in NYC, Talbot, Lundqvist, Raanta. ))

 

[Bluenote13]

You can never draft enough goalies - we had some great goalies here in NYC, Talbot, Lundqvist, Raanta. ))

We didn't draft two of those and the Henrik is a once in a lifetime find.

Other than that yeah, great drafting.....

 

[UAGoalieGuy]

We didn't draft two of those and the Henrik is a once in a lifetime find.

Other than that yeah, great drafting.....

Hey they drafted Richter and Vanbeisbruk 30 or so years ago!

Dan Cloutier had an OK career as well. Drafted 22 years ago lol where has the time gone!

Al Montoya (ugh) has had a journeyman backup career.

 

[bobbop]

Puzzled by this pick. He's ranked 30th by NHL central scouting in North American goalies and played Junior B hockey. There were several goalies available in the top 5 in either North American or European goalies. Rangers went way off the charts! What happened here?

The Rangers trust their scouts more than they trust Central Scouting. No surprise. Central Scouting focuses on performance and does not delve deeply into intangibles.

 

[bobbop]

Go back and look at Talbot's record at UAB. I rest my case.

 

[nyr__1994]

So this was an argument I was having in one of the draft day discussion threads in terms of drafting a goalie late. I thought that if you were drafting a goalie late, that it was probably just better to take a skater.

This is a very arbitrary success measure, and I'd point everyone again to the chart that Burtch tweeted out here:



As it uses actual stats to determine goalie value by draft pick #

This chart below is a simple count, and the determination of success is if the player has appeared in 82 games or more at the NHL level. The chart is for all drafts since the year 2000.

I'd argue there is some sample size bias in here since there are much fewer goalies selected than skaters especially in rounds 8 and 9 there. I could go back further in time, but I don't feel like doing that.

Also, when you are looking at GP for goalies, are you counting games they dressed for, or games they actually played in? Because if you are strictly looking at GP, it could take a back-up goalie 2-4 years of being in the NHL to accumulate 82 GP. What would those numbers look like if you changed the goalie GP requirement to 20, 30, and 40 GP which is probably a lot closer to the equivalent of 82 GP for a skater.

 

[silverfish]

Also, when you are looking at GP for goalies, are you counting games they dressed for, or games they actually played in? Because if you are strictly looking at GP, it could take a back-up goalie 2-4 years of being in the NHL to accumulate 82 GP. What would those numbers look like if you changed the goalie GP requirement to 20, 30, and 40 GP which is probably a lot closer to the equivalent of 82 GP for a skater.

Games played.

Would you consider a goalie who plays 20-40 games a successful pick? But you are partially correct, which is why I led that post off saying that the GP measure of success isn't a strong one - and again refer everyone to Burtch's chart.

 

[nyr__1994]

Games played.

Would you consider a goalie who plays 20-40 games a successful pick? But you are partially correct, which is why I led that post off saying that the GP measure of success isn't a strong one - and again refer everyone to Burtch's chart.

I am not sure where the GP becomes equivalent, but my point was, while your fancy chart looked nice, it was not an apples to apples comparison.

It is like saying Rick Nash is better than Victor Hedman because he scored more goals. They are not comparable...

 

[silverfish]

I am not sure where the GP becomes equivalent, but my point was, while your fancy chart looked nice, it was not an apples to apples comparison.

It is like saying Rick Nash is better than Victor Hedman because he scored more goals. They are not comparable...

Which is why I prefaced the entire post with: "This is a very arbitrary success measure".

 

[sbjnyc]

There also hasn't been a 8th or 9th round since 2004 i believe.

There have been some really good undrafted goalies also (CuJo and Belfour come to mind). Any way to determine the success rate of undrafted goalies that get signed, maybe lumping in those drafted after the 7th?

 

[silverfish]

There have been some really good undrafted goalies also (CuJo and Belfour come to mind). Any way to determine the success rate of undrafted goalies that get signed, maybe lumping in those drafted after the 7th?

This makes sense, though.

I'd imagine that the position of goalie is much harder to tell how a kid at age 18 will perform at age 25 or so when he's really ready to be a full-time #1.

You sign an undrafted kid at age 21, and you have a lot more data on him than you would have had three years ago.

So again, IMO, I'd never draft a goalie unless he's a surefire can't miss and I'm willing to spend a top-50 pick on him. Conversely, there's really never an issue with drafting BPA; and if the Rangers had Wall as BPA @ pick number 174, then it's not a bad pick. But if I was running the draft, I'd skip Wall and take BSA (Best Skater Available).

Let's call it a wash though since they got Ronning in the 7th round which was absurd value.