Salary Cap: New Salary Cap to Habs Advantage (Possible 81.5M for next 3 seasons)

[Habs Halifax]

I think the bigger question from the player perspective is how big the escrow could look like. I think the salary cap figure is supposed to be the NHL's best estimation of revenues to be achieved, and right away, I'm asking the question of how they expect not to take a hit next year.

20% Escrow and $10% Salary reduction = about $800M. That's probably close to what they will loose this season.

Then it comes down to if fans are in the seats or not to start next season. That's almost 6 months away from now so it's still a fluid situation. I think it's premature to say the cap will be flat for 3 seasons.

 

[CHfan1]

20% Escrow and $10% Salary reduction = about $800M. That's probably close to what they will loose this season.

Then it comes down to if fans are in the seats or not to start next season. That's almost 6 months away from now so it's still a fluid situation. I think it's premature to say the cap will be flat for 3 seasons.

As part of the CBA extension talks, that they are about to vote on (probably this week) they are talking about setting the cap now for the next 2 years at $81.5 million and going to $82.5 million in 3 years.

 

[Habs Halifax]

As part of the CBA extension talks, that they are about to vote on (probably this week) they are talking about setting the cap now for the next 2 years at $81.5 million and going to $82.5 million in 3 years.

I doubt they vote on anything for sure beyond next season. It's more like tentative plan with protocols in place so they can continue to move forward. This is still a fluid situation and month/month planing is required.

I said back in April that they will try to finish this season. Some said there is no chance in hell. I fully expect a lot of movement to come in the next 12 months. Nobody considering that the start of the next season is 6 months away and we could be back to normal with a condensed schedule. It's possible... that's all I am saying

 

[CHfan1]

I doubt they vote on anything for sure beyond next season. It's more like tentative plan with protocols in place so they can continue to move forward. This is still a fluid situation and month/month planing is required.

This is from Elliott’s Friedman’s column:

Some of what’s in the new framework was contained in this article from Thursday, but here’s a fuller picture: four years added onto two remaining seasons; 20 per cent escrow limit for players in 2020-21; somewhere between 14-18 per cent in 2021-22, with a hope of getting into single digits after; salary cap of $81.5 million for the next two seasons, and $82.5 million in 2022-23; a 10 per cent player “deferral” next season (which includes July 1 signing bonuses due next week), where players will get that money back in the future when escrow is lower; and a mechanism to make sure teams get paid in full from the 50-50 split over the length of the deal.

31 Thoughts: Fallout from a contentious NHL Draft Lottery - Sportsnet.ca

 

[Habs Halifax]

This is from Elliott’s Friedman’s column:

31 Thoughts: Fallout from a contentious NHL Draft Lottery - Sportsnet.ca

I understand what he reported. It's his interpretation of the information he gathered by conducting interviews. I think it's much deeper than what he reported

 

[Captain Mountain]

Habs will cap f*** themselves to keep Domi, Danault, Gallagher, Tatar and Petry. Will be nice to be to the cap with the same team that can't make the play-offs.

I'm not so sure they will. There are many reasons to be critical of Bergvin, but he's been willing to let guys walk in the past to protect cap flexibility, even to the detriment of the team. Montreal has some long term cap issues (Price's contract, Alzner's contract, Drouin currently being Montreal's highest paid forward despite being, at best, their 5th best forward), but they're pretty good at maintaining cap flexibility. I very much doubt all of those guys get re-signed.

The team will still not be very good (because Bergevin seems entirely unwilling to do what it takes to build a real core), but I suspect he'll try to maintain cap flexibility.

 

[CHfan1]

I understand what he reported. It's his interpretation of the information he gathered by conducting interviews. I think it's much deeper than what he reported

Well we will see this week, with a probable CBA extension vote along with a return to play vote.

 

[CHfan1]

I understand what he reported. It's his interpretation of the information he gathered by conducting interviews. I think it's much deeper than what he reported

As a note he’s not the only one reporting this, this is from ESPN:

Another reason escrow is expected to fall is that the NHL would freeze its salary cap for the next two seasons, at around $81.5 million. It would then potentially increase it by only $1 million in 2022-23, keeping new contracts under that ceiling.

Sources: NHL, players close on new CBA deal

 

[Habs Halifax]

As a note he’s not the only one reporting this, this is from ESPN:



Sources: NHL, players close on new CBA deal

Anybody becoming a UFA in this span is getting screwed! Pietrangelo is the first one. He will still get paid but not as much if the cap was $84M - $88M like they projected before Covid-19

 

[CHfan1]

Anybody becoming a UFA in this span is getting screwed! Pietrangelo is the first one. He will still get paid but not as much if the cap was $84M - $88M like they projected before Covid-19

Yep. It will also make for an interesting off-season after the 2020-2021 season for Montreal, with so many decisions needed to be made on free agents.

 

[Deebs]

Yep. It will also make for an interesting off-season after the 2020-2021 season for Montreal, with so many decisions needed to be made on free agents.

Who's all free agents for us during this time?

 

[Habs]

There is no way 4 -6 teams survive this Covid situation. Lots of suspect ownership , zero gate revenue, and what will the fan capacity even be when the NHL is allowed to open its doors?

The cap will have to plummet to make ends meet. Wait till the big announcement in the US tomorrow, lets see how much the USD is devalued when the real numbers come out to reflect the covid shutdown. Corporations are going to have massive losses on the books, especially major sports sponsorships.

Tomorrow is freaking me out already, and I'm just a small investor in the US market, I couldn't imagine what the rest are on the brink of reporting.

 

[CHfan1]

Who's all free agents for us during this time?

After the 2020-2021 season

Notable UFA
Gallagher
Tatar
Petry
Danault
Armia

Notable RFA
Kotkaniemi
Lehkonen

 

[Habs Halifax]

After the 2020-2021 season

Notable UFA
Gallagher
Tatar
Petry
Danault
Armia

Notable RFA
Kotkaniemi
Lehkonen

Add Poehling and Evans and possibly Fleury and Juulsen as RFA's. Their value could go up or down in the next 12 months.

 

[Habs Halifax]

There is no way 4 -6 teams survive this Covid situation. Lots of suspect ownership , zero gate revenue, and what will the fan capacity even be when the NHL is allowed to open its doors?

The cap will have to plummet to make ends meet. Wait till the big announcement in the US tomorrow, lets see how much the USD is devalued when the real numbers come out to reflect the covid shutdown. Corporations are going to have massive losses on the books, especially major sports sponsorships.

Tomorrow is freaking me out already, and I'm just a small investor in the US market, I couldn't imagine what the rest are on the brink of reporting.

I moved my pension to GIC back in March. I've actually made 2% rate of return in the last few months. Coming back into the market next March or earlier. No way I was going to take a 30% hit due to Covid. Trump has been pumping money into the stock market to create stability but that can't go on for a year.

Some teams are going to struggle big time if there are no fans or limited fans in the seats next year. Season projected to start in December or January so a lot can happen in the next 6 months

 

[CHfan1]

Add Poehling and Evans and possibly Fleury and Juulsen as RFA's. Their value could go up or down in the next 12 months.

Yep and add in an expansion draft, next offseason and the decisions made is really big for the direction of this franchise.

 

[Habs Halifax]

Yep and add in an expansion draft, next offseason and the decisions made is really big for the direction of this franchise.

I think some will get extended before next season starts. Expansion draft will be a factor but we probably loose one of Lehkonen, Byron, Juulsen, Fleury, or Mete. Maybe add Evans if he has a good year next year too.

 

[Deebs]

After the 2020-2021 season

Notable UFA
Gallagher
Tatar
Petry
Danault
Armia

Notable RFA
Kotkaniemi
Lehkonen

Thanks for the info

Significant players most definitely. Gally, Tatar, Danault and Armia will be signed. I think Tatar could be moved if we really struggle out of the gate next year and fall out of a playoff position, however I think the team will be right at a bubble position. Kotka and Lehky will be signed to friendly deals imo.

I can't see us signing Petry just because he's going to be getting a significant offer from somewhere. I'd prefer we don't continue making mistakes and sign him to a 7 x 7 or something like that. If he could live with a 5 year deal around $6M, then we should reconsider.

 

[montreal]

I would think Alzner gets bought out in the last year of his contract, next summer as it would cost only 1.1M for '21-'22 and '22-'23, since it would save them almost 2.4M in cap space but add 1.1M in '22-'23.

 

[LaP]

With all our UFAs and RFAs to sign the next year i really don't see how it's an advantage at all. We are not a good position at all. I'd rather have a good team that needs to trade one bad contract to a bottom feeder giving a pick or prospect in the process to solve the problem than having a bottom feeder team needing to improve but having to sign a bunch of UFAs who produce more than their career average which will put the team up to the cap limit and maybe even beyond.

 

[LaP]

I would think Alzner gets bought out in the last year of his contract, next summer as it would cost only 1.1M for '21-'22 and '22-'23, since it would save them almost 2.4M in cap space but add 1.1M in '22-'23.

Alzner is the last of our concern. Our concern should be all of Petry, Danault, Gallagher and Tatar asking between 6.5 and 7 millions and honestly they would be dumb not to ask this amount. Maybe 1 or 2 of them will sign for 6 but i don't see any of them signing under 6. I hope we wont have a repeat of take it or leave it if you want loyalty buy a dog cause this time it will be even more awful than the first time.

 

[Sterling Archer]

Add Poehling and Evans and possibly Fleury and Juulsen as RFA's. Their value could go up or down in the next 12 months.

I think all 4 get signed for less than $4M tbh so I think they'd actually help manage the cap, rather than hurt us.

 

[Habs Halifax]

I think all 4 get signed for less than $4M tbh so I think they'd actually help manage the cap, rather than hurt us.

Depends on term and how they do in this play in round and next season. As it stand today, it won't cost much and your $4M is not far off

 

[LaP]

After the 2020-2021 season

Notable UFA
Gallagher
Tatar
Petry
Danault
Armia

Notable RFA
Kotkaniemi
Lehkonen

Here's what i consider would be the best case scenario :

Notable UFA
Gallagher 3.75 -> 5.5
Tatar 4.8 (current cap hit with us) -> 6 (500 000 more than his current salary will more than likely not happen but i don't see him accepting a drop in salary he'll want minimum a small raise)
Petry 5.5 -> 6.5 (last contract no way he goes beyond that amount)
Danault 3.083 -> 5
Armia 2.6 -> 3

Notable RFA
Lehkonen 2.4 -> 2.6
Domi 3.150 -> 4 (on a 1 or 2 years contract long term he'll want minimum the same amount of Drouin so we just buy time here)

So this very very very best case scenario where everyone is a very loyal dog put us 7.317 millions over our current cap. And you still got to resign Domi shortly after and this is hoping none of JK and Suzuki break out before their 2nd contract. You could let Armia or Lehkonen go but if you want to save money you'll have to replace them and given their salary you wont save much unless you take a gamble.

I still firmly believe MB should have sold 1 or 2 vet this deadline. Price were very good and we will have to trade one of them eventually if kids progress as expected. And if kids don't progress as expected then it's a waste of time to keep those vets the team ain't good enough without any help.

This best case scenario is unlikely to happen though. Some guys will get greedy i really don't see why Petry would not aim for 7 millions. Danault, Gallagher, Petry and Tatar will likely cost too much for what they are as a group (i.e. not good enough) and trading 1 or 2 of them was imo still the logical thing to do.

 

[Habs Halifax]

Alzner is the last of our concern. Our concern should be all of Petry, Danault, Gallagher and Tatar asking between 6.5 and 7 millions and honestly they would be dumb not to ask this amount. Maybe 1 or 2 of them will sign for 6 but i don't see any of them signing under 6. I hope we wont have a repeat of take it or leave it if you want loyalty buy a dog cause this time it will be even more awful than the first time.

1) Gallagher: Similar numbers to Atkinson. I expect Gallagher to be around $6M - $7M range.

2) Petry: Think Muzzin and a bit more. I think Petry likes it in Montreal just as much as Muzzin in Toronto.

3) Tatar: Should be paid somewhere between Nylander and Ehlers.

4) Danault: His production numbers are up cause of who we play him with. Should be somewhere around Eller and Nelson

The issue is if any of them want a max deal which I highly doubt will happen from any team now with a flat cap. The ones to let go are Byron and Lehkonen and maybe even Armia. Rather keep Armia cause he is a big body that we need.

Term is more of a concern with me