Confirmed with Link: Nate Thompson 1 year 750k

[garret9]

Hendricks xGAR/82 as a Jet: -0.8
Hendricks career xGAR/82: -1.1

Nate Thompson career xGAR/82: -2.2

 

[pucka lucka]

Hendricks xGAR/82 as a Jet: -0.8
Hendricks career xGAR/82: -1.1

Nate Thompson career xGAR/82: -2.2

Nice. That is terrible. These guys have made millions while never being good enough yet we have the Petans and Niku types who just can't even get a 20 or 30 game stretch to prove themselves. I don't want to start a Petan debate, but we didn't do him any favours.

 

[Whileee]

Maurice will play him if he feels like it helps him stay employed. Winning isn't the most important thing in that regard. It's not a coincidence these types of useless players that other players like keep getting signed here.

Chipman is showing:

• low risk is his plan for the Jets.
• Keep players happy.
• Ship out big personalities,
• hire a coach that specializes in player contentment
• and don't screw up too badly and end up like the Sens or Sabres.

Mediocrity is the goal with this franchise. Predictable and steady. Winnipeg is a very tough market and Chipman is not the personality I'd expect to do the high risk things necessary to build a winner here.

Other than Kane, which "big personalities" have the Jets shipped out? Trading successive 1st round picks to rent 2 C's isn't a "low risk" approach.

 

[Whileee]

Nice. That is terrible. These guys have made millions while never being good enough yet we have the Petans and Niku types who just can't even get a 20 or 30 game stretch to prove themselves. I don't want to start a Petan debate, but we didn't do him any favours.

Career xGAR/60 (from Evolving Hockey).

Thompson -0.123
Petan -0.131
Niku -0.427

Petan and Niku have perhaps not gotten a long enough audition, but their on-ice results aren't very encouraging.

 

[garret9]

Career xGAR/60 (from Evolving Hockey).

Thompson -0.123
Petan -0.131
Niku -0.427

Petan and Niku have perhaps not gotten a long enough audition, but their on-ice results aren't very encouraging.

Ya but sampling issue will be huge there. While these numbers are much better than what people used to use there is still a lot of variance with those small samples.

And I've gone and pointed out before the vast difference between results for Petan in a checking role and scoring role, which an RAPM does not account for.

The issue always is and was that a Thompson will always be bad... a Niku or Petan given enough sample may stay being similarly bad or may be better.

 

[Whileee]

Ya but sampling issue will be huge there. While these numbers are much better than what people used to use there is still a lot of variance with those small samples.

And I've gone and pointed out before the vast difference between results for Petan in a checking role and scoring role, which an RAPM does not account for.

Agreed. I think Petan has suffered from unfortunate usage, but there aren't many top 6 spots, and so he's been with a couple of franchises with some depth of talent there. He'd be a good candidate for a role in a team lacking skill up front.

 

[pucka lucka]

Other than Kane, which "big personalities" have the Jets shipped out? Trading successive 1st round picks to rent 2 C's isn't a "low risk" approach.

That is my point. Laine appears to be one of those guys. Ehlers to a lesser extent. They both keep coming up in rumours.

 

[garret9]

Agreed. I think Petan has suffered from unfortunate usage, but there aren't many top 6 spots, and so he's been with a couple of franchises with some depth of talent there. He'd be a good candidate for a role in a team lacking skill up front.

Agreed, not to take things off topic. When I saw he signed to TOR I was thinking that was probably the worst non-Jets team for him to go for.

 

[Guardian17]

 

[Whodey204]

Cant wait for Maurice to dress this guy 82 times a season all while praising the "little things" he does well, despite getting caved in at every metric that actually predicts possibly winning the game..

Its astounding to me how often Maurice leans towards the veteran everyone knows is bad, out fear of playing a younger player.

I highly doubt our team is better off playing Thompson in a 4th line role for Gustafsson

Probably will see Harkins in the press box yet too.

 

[Atoyot]

Hendricks xGAR/82 as a Jet: -0.8
Hendricks career xGAR/82: -1.1

Nate Thompson career xGAR/82: -2.2

 

[voyageur]

Career xGAR/60 (from Evolving Hockey).

Thompson -0.123
Petan -0.131
Niku -0.427

Petan and Niku have perhaps not gotten a long enough audition, but their on-ice results aren't very encouraging.

Can someone explain what xGAR is? It seems to be the new trendy advanced stats. Before that it was CF% that everyone was advocating, but it is has not been very predictable in winning. The fact a coach like Barry Trotz who despised the stat went quite a ways in the regular season with a negative CF% and in fact routed a team like the Caps, who employ some of the Hockey Data peeps makes me wonder what we are getting into. What makes xGAR a valuable stat?

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Agreed. I think Petan has suffered from unfortunate usage, but there aren't many top 6 spots, and so he's been with a couple of franchises with some depth of talent there. He'd be a good candidate for a role in a team lacking skill up front.

There are exactly as many top 6 spots as there are bottom 6 spots.

 

[garret9]

Can someone explain what xGAR is? It seems to be the new trendy advanced stats. Before that it was CF% that everyone was advocating, but it is has not been very predictable in winning. The fact a coach like Barry Trotz who despised the stat went quite a ways in the regular season with a negative CF% and in fact routed a team like the Caps, who employ some of the HockeyData peeps makes me wonder what we are getting into. What makes xGAR a valuable stat?

lol

Corsi is still important. It's part of hockey. There's not a single coach or GM that thinks getting outshot is a good thing. Trotz can say he doesn't like the stat, but when you ask him if it's good to allow more shots than you take he'll say no.

Hockey is comprised of 6 things:
1) Try to make more chances (shot quantity)
2) Try to make those chances the best chances (shot quality)
3) Capitalize in those chances (finishing)
4) Reduce opponent chances (shot quantity)
5) Keep those chances to the outside (shot quality)
6) Stop the chances as often as possible (goaltending)

Corsi is shot volume. It's 2/6 things. Shot volume is still a large part of what drives wins:

The biggest reason why shot volume is so important is that it's more sustainable and easier to control. Not because it "matters" more in making a goal. A team that outshoots will get outshot less often than a shooter goes cold or a solid goalie lets in a bunch.

GAR and Expected GAR (xGAR) just take these components and combine them all into one currency: team goal differential. (well it also creates an SPM model that has things like giveaways, takeaways, hits, faceoffs, etc. and blends the two models but that's neither here nor there)

GAR is weighted towards explanatory value; ie: the value a team got from a player (heavily weighted towards goals).
xGAR is weighted towards predicting value; ie: the value a team will typically garner from a player (heavily weighted based on predictivity so more towards shots).



Long version short: xGAR uses shots (Corsi and Fenwick and expected goals) because it is more predictive than goals for future wins, while GAR uses goals because that's what wins games.

 

[voyageur]

lol

Corsi is still important. It's part of hockey. There's not a single coach or GM that thinks getting outshot is a good thing. Trotz can say he doesn't like the stat, but when you ask him if it's good to allow more shots than you take he'll say no.

Hockey is comprised of 6 things:
1) Try to make more chances (shot quantity)
2) Try to make those chances the best chances (shot quality)
3) Capitalize in those chances (finishing)
4) Reduce opponent chances (shot quantity)
5) Keep those chances to the outside (shot quality)
6) Stop the chances as often as possible (goaltending)

Corsi is shot volume. It's 2/6 things. Shot volume is still a large part of what drives wins:

The biggest reason why shot volume is so important is that it's more sustainable and easier to control. Not because it "matters" more in making a goal. A team that outshoots will get outshot less often than a shooter goes cold or a solid goalie lets in a bunch.

GAR and Expected GAR (xGAR) just take these components and combine them all into one currency: team goal differential. (well it also creates an SPM model that has things like giveaways, takeaways, hits, faceoffs, etc. and blends the two models but that's neither here nor there)

GAR is weighted towards explanatory value; ie: the value a team got from a player (heavily weighted towards goals).
xGAR is weighted towards predicting value; ie: the value a team will typically garner from a player (heavily weighted based on predictivity so more towards shots).



Long version short: xGAR uses shots (Corsi and Fenwick and expected goals) because it is more predictive than goals for future wins, while GAR uses goals because that's what wins games.

Thank you for a civil response to a contentious post.

Shots are important, there is no argument here. But quality of shots is something to be measured as well. Quite often with the Jets you'll see a 3rd or 4th line player at the end of a shift, just fire a puck into the goalie's glove to get a whistle, a line change and offensive possession. That may be after a length period of defending. So that the shot itself has the impact of the ensuing faceoff as the measurement of its effectiveness. I wonder how that rates with a strong cycle shift that only gets 1 shot, but a quality one from sustained pressure. I still think zone possession is an under rated quality. The Jets were at their best when they were making offensive zone line changes. Quality of defensemen plays a big impact in possession. I am sure you could verify that statistically across the NHL.

I'm hoping Thompson's best quality is leadership. The faceoffs can have an impact on the PK. You clear the zone, and you can save yourself a lot of time before your opponent gets reentry and possession. But you showed before the Jim Slater/Hendricks effect of being effective only for a certain period of time. Still I think he'll do well here. Probably like the fishing being from Alaska.

 

[garret9]

Thank you for a civil response to a contentious post.

Shots are important, there is no argument here. But quality of shots is something to be measured as well. Quite often with the Jets you'll see a 3rd or 4th line player at the end of a shift, just fire a puck into the goalie's glove to get a whistle, a line change and offensive possession. That may be after a length period of defending. So that the shot itself has the impact of the ensuing faceoff as the measurement of its effectiveness. I wonder how that rates with a strong cycle shift that only gets 1 shot, but a quality one from sustained pressure. I still think zone possession is an under rated quality. The Jets were at their best when they were making offensive zone line changes. Quality of defensemen plays a big impact in possession. I am sure you could verify that statistically across the NHL.

I'm hoping Thompson's best quality is leadership. The faceoffs can have an impact on the PK. You clear the zone, and you can save yourself a lot of time before your opponent gets reentry and possession. But you showed before the Jim Slater/Hendricks effect of being effective only for a certain period of time. Still I think he'll do well here. Probably like the fishing being from Alaska.

No worries.

Few small points on here:

1) Shot quality matters and that's where xGoals differentiates from Corsi, but Corsi still matters. Corsi views all shots are equal; not saying all shots are equal but because you are wanting to specifically look at quantity. xGoal adjusts each shot based on shot quality factors. For example: Does a team struggle because of where the shots are taken or is it the number of shots? You can look at xGoals vs Corsi to find that out. The Jets stunk at both last year.

2) Your hypothesis is correct. Sustained pressure is a positive impact on shot quality all other things being equal. Also you are correct, having quality defenders who can join the cycle definitely can indirectly improve xGoals for without them directly impacting offense.

3) If you're curious as to what impacts shot quality and the degree:

 

[JetsUK]

No worries.

Few small points on here:

1) Shot quality matters and that's where xGoals differentiates from Corsi, but Corsi still matters. Corsi views all shots are equal; not saying all shots are equal but because you are wanting to specifically look at quantity. xGoal adjusts each shot based on shot quality factors. For example: Does a team struggle because of where the shots are taken or is it the number of shots? You can look at xGoals vs Corsi to find that out. The Jets stunk at both last year.

2) Your hypothesis is correct. Sustained pressure is a positive impact on shot quality all other things being equal. Also you are correct, having quality defenders who can join the cycle definitely can indirectly improve xGoals for without them directly impacting offense.

3) If you're curious as to what impacts shot quality and the degree:

Thanks -- super helpful, as always.

Might be useful to have this and the previous post stickied as part of a metrics explanation and info thread, so meatheads like me don't continually ask for clarification on such matters, and further blur the fine line between stupid and clever.

 

[JetsUK]

Cant wait for Maurice to dress this guy 82 times a season all while praising the "little things" he does well, despite getting caved in at every metric that actually predicts possibly winning the game..

Its astounding to me how often Maurice leans towards the veteran everyone knows is bad, out fear of playing a younger player.

I highly doubt our team is better off playing Thompson in a 4th line role for Gustafsson

Probably will see Harkins in the press box yet too.

I agree, and it's small consolation, but it's looking like a 48-game (or shortened at least) season...

 

[Neuf]

Basically this signing means Lowry is 3C, and half the forward roles will be built without consideration to offense. I was still hoping for a scoring third line with Roslovic, Harkins, Appleton, Vesalainen, or even Perreault.

 

[HannuJ]

Career xGAR/60 (from Evolving Hockey).

Thompson -0.123
Petan -0.131
Niku -0.427

Petan and Niku have perhaps not gotten a long enough audition, but their on-ice results aren't very encouraging.

i hate the "Petan couldn't get a sniff" narrative that others have posted. it's pure BS. there were known off-ice factors that likely translated to on-ice/practice factors. Petan couldn't get a sniff from the Jets. nor by the Leafs.

while i think the Thompson signing is meh and am okish with it if he only plays 25% of the games, i don't see any internal players that would suffer by this signing. not sure how much gold one expects to pan for when we're talking about 4th line Cs

 

[garret9]

i hate the "Petan couldn't get a sniff" narrative that others have posted. it's pure BS. there were known off-ice factors that likely translated to on-ice/practice factors. Petan couldn't get a sniff from the Jets. nor by the Leafs.

while i think the Thompson signing is meh and am okish with it if he only plays 25% of the games, i don't see any internal players that would suffer by this signing. not sure how much gold one expects to pan for when we're talking about 4th line Cs

He got a sniff. Issue is people overvalue his minutes being with Thorburn over his minutes being away, unfortunately.

 

[Al Camino]

They gave him Rypien's #11 . You don't do that unless he's all but made the team.

 

[surixon]

He got a sniff. Issue is people overvalue his minutes being with Thorburn over his minutes being away, unfortunately.

He was pretty solid when playing with decent talent but was crap playing with awful talent.

I maintain he would have been a good third wheel on a third scoring line.

 

[Jet]

At least y'all have someone new to bitch about

 

[jetswin]

They gave him Rypien's #11 . You don't do that unless he's all but made the team.

Definitely the new Hendricks.....doesn't speak well of the current leadership group when the org is always bringing in guys to be the "glue" in the room.