Confirmed with Link: Nate Thompson 1 year 750k

Jack722

Registered User
Mar 3, 2018
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And I'm getting a little tired of the notion that every roster solution involves giving the next prospect in line a couple years to demonstrate if they can be a consistent NHL player. If they fail it is the coaches fault so we bring in the next mid round prospect in line and give them a couple years to develop into a consistent NHL player. The NHL isn't a developmental league it is a results based league. And IMO we as a fan base are way to in love with our own prospects.

I am not in love with our prospects and I don't think we need to give everyone two years to succeed.

What I do want is for our prospects to have some reasonable chance to succeed in roles that they are suited for, and for them to be played in those roles when they show their effectiveness.

If you think that a low 2nd-line minutes shutdown line with Copp/Lowry is something Maurice just does because his hands are so tied by our paucity of depth - and not something that he actually WANTS and has actively been involved in cultivating - then we will agree to disagree.
 

garret9

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Mar 31, 2012
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That's a pretty interesting way to look at stats. I didn't realize Lowry was 41.1% on the PK, and I wonder if that has to do with being forced to take draws on his weakside, as the opposing teams choose the dot now? Can you break that down into a strong side vs. weak side ratio?

Regardless it's interesting to know that the actual variance on PK faceoffs is rather low. But with those numbers for Lowry I wonder if Thompson doesn't get more reps, as a faceoff ace. How much time on average is killed with the opening draw won vs. lost in terms of zone possession?

Part of the reason is luck. 40-60% is a win/loss swing of 10-20 FOs for most players, so as you split down to smaller samples (all mins vs PK/EV, all dots vs OZ/DZ, both sides vs strong/weak) you get more sampling error as you get smaller samples.
 

garret9

AKA#VitoCorrelationi
Mar 31, 2012
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I'm not sure what all this means but am I out line thinking that he's not worth extending at his current 3 million per year?

Showing why face offs tend to be overrated...

1) A really good/bad face off specialist is still only winning 10-20 more or fewer than they lose out of hundreds of faceoffs

2) Most of the value of a faceoff comes from the zone it was in, not the act of winning/losing the faceoff... Or in other words, the most common shot after a defensive zone faceoff win is still the other team (if you win a DZ FO you still have to break out the puck and even then you are only getting into neutral territory).

3) Most shots still don't become goals because goalies stop >90% of the shots that do happen.
 
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Al Camino

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Jul 18, 2018
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Showing why face offs tend to be overrated...

1) A really good/bad face off specialist is still only winning 10-20 more or fewer than they lose out of hundreds of faceoffs

2) Most of the value of a faceoff comes from the zone it was in, not the act of winning/losing the faceoff... Or in other words, the most common shot after a defensive zone faceoff win is still the other team (if you win a DZ FO you still have to break out the puck and even then you are only getting into neutral territory).

3) Most shots still don't become goals because goalies stop >90% of the shots that do happen.
Good to know. I will continue in my beliefe that Adam Lowry is overrated.
 
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JetsUK

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Oct 1, 2015
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Always blaming the coach IMO gets a little thin after awhile. I'd argue many GMs would be much more aggressive in improving the roster and not believe we are good enough when clearly we aren't. You don't have to trade out 1/2 your bottom 6 but rather make 1 or 2 moves that makes your team better. We are in a unique season and there is still some very good players sitting as UFAs not signed. I've compared Chevy to Sakic who has been very aggressive in improving the Avs roster. The only draft picks in their lineup are for the most part are star players and he has used other draft picks and prospects to get actual upgrades for the team. The same can be said for LV. IMO Chevy is fortunate that he has a very patient owner and fan base that doesn't demand he do more to get better.

ITA that Sakic (and Yzerman, and now Brisebois, and a few others) have been more aggressive and more creative than Chevy at times, and that this may have cost us in at least a few seasons -- although not in 2017-18, or 2018-19, when he made moves for Stats and (though he probably shouldn't have) Hayes.

The Armia "trade" was a classic attempt to cover a bad deal with a much, much worse one; the LS pick was weak from the get-go, and his habit of giving away picks cheaply, even late rounders, has absolutely diluted our prospect pool. I think grinding Copp towards arbitration while signing Wheels and Little to generous exit contracts isn't a great look, and will likely wind up with us losing some quality that isn't so easily replaced.

And you're on the money that this season presents a unique opp that Chevy should be able to exploit more astutely, but to do so he needs to make every cent count, and that presumably includes cash and roster spots spent on leaders/cheerleaders like Nate T. Is he among the best GMs at adding talent and maximizing the impact of his moves, even given the natural constraints (NMCs, overpays, etc)? Is he creative? Agile? A guy who can manage the near, medium and long-term for his team equally well? Maybe, but there are certainly points to argue there. Are there better GMs? Yes. Are there more than a handful? Probably not, IMO.

Clearly both GM and coaching staff should share in the credit for good results, and the blame for poor ones -- although whether they should share equally is up for debate. But if I had to choose between our GM and his legacy of success and mistakes and our coach and his, the choice isn't a tricky one for me. Can the 2020 Chevy continue to learn and improve as a GM going forward? Better than even chance, I'd say. Will PoMo break new ground as a coach and lead a Jets roster that will absolutely be worse than the 2017-18 All-Time Jets group to the promised land? I'm much less confident of that. Are there better coaches? Yes. Are there more than a handful? Yes, I'd say. Easier to find a good coach than a good GM, I'd bet, given their respective portfolios.
 
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Al Camino

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ITA that Sakic (and Yzerman, and now Brisebois, and a few others) have been more aggressive and more creative than Chevy at times, and that this may have cost us in at least a few seasons -- although not in 2017-18, or 2018-19, when he made moves for Stats and (though he probably shouldn't have) Hayes.

The Armia "trade" was a classic attempt to cover a bad deal with a much, much worse one; the LS pick was weak from the get-go, and his habit of giving away picks cheaply, even late rounders, has absolutely diluted our prospect pool. I think grinding Copp towards arbitration while signing Wheels and Little to generous exit contracts isn't a great look, and will likely wind up with us losing some quality that isn't so easily replaced.

And you're on the money that this season presents a unique opp that Chevy should be able to exploit more astutely, but to do so he needs to make every cent count, and that presumably includes cash and roster spots spent on leaders/cheerleaders like Nate T. Is he among the best GMs at adding talent and maximizing the impact of his moves, even given the natural constraints (NMCs, overpays, etc)? Is he creative? Agile? A guy who can manage the near, medium and long-term for his team equally well? Maybe, but there are certainly points to argue there. Are there better GMs? Yes. Are there more than a handful? Probably not, IMO.

Clearly both GM and coaching staff should share in the credit for good results, and the blame for poor ones -- although whether they should share equally is up for debate. But if I had to choose between our GM and his legacy of success and mistakes and our coach and his, the choice isn't a tricky one for me. Can the 2020 Chevy continue to learn and improve as a GM going forward? Better than even chance, I'd say. Will PoMo break new ground as a coach and lead a Jets roster that will absolutely be worse than the 2017-18 All-Time Jets group to the promised land? I'm much less confident of that. Are there better coaches? Yes. Are there more than a handful? Yes, I'd say. Easier to find a good coach than a good GM, I'd bet, given their respective portfolios.
I give him a pass on the Hayes trade. He tried to trade his way into a deep playoff run but the team was a disaster. That Armia trade was terrible. Definately easier to find a new coach. The question is Chipman going to let him? I have a hard time beleiving that Chevy wanted Noel as his first coach. And given that Chipman was the one that announced the PoMo extension it's not a leap of imagination to think that Chevy didn't have a lot of say in that either. Chipman pays the bills so he can do whatever he wants but he is probably more involved in hockey ops that he should be.
 

surixon

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Jul 12, 2003
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Winnipeg
In 2017-18 he was probably a top 5 bottom-six player in the entire league. He's struggled since.

Well that happens when you have a career year when you produce like a first line player at 5 on 5.


I thought he was just fine in 18-19 but like a lot of our players struggled mightily this past year.
 
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KingBogo

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Nov 29, 2011
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Is that not what we did with DeMelo? I am really struggling to see what your issue is right now.

The Burakowsky example really needs to be put to bed. He spent most of his time last year in their top 6 and is now making second line money as a result. He is a LW and wasn't at all a need for us. Our LW depth is pretty darn good with Conner and Ehelers in the top 6 and Copp (Very effective all around third line player), Perraukt who up until this year was an elite play driving and scoring third line player. We also have system depth to gradually replace Perraukt in Harkins or Ves.

You want your GM to fill roster holes just not trade for players just because. What were this organizations major holes:

2C - Chevy went out and drafted a potential star center and brought in a well respected vet all around second line center that has proven chemistry with the linemates he is likely to play with. Seems to me he went outside the org and addressed the need.

Team defense especially with regards to the ability to break up a cycle and clearing the front of the net. He started trying to fix this last year when he grabbed a strong defensive first top 4 dmen in DeMelo who he retained on a nice deal. He also went out and grabbed a big strong in his own end defensive player in Forbert that should help us out in limiting those high danger chances we were giving up by the boat load last year. Add in Samberg who is big, developed and his calling card is strong defense with a good first pass and that also helps address the weakness. Poolman also showed well near the end of the year.

So to me Chevy has gone out and grabbed players to specifically address the biggest weaknesses on this team.

What other real holes are left on this roster? I can think of really only one major one and that is an elite top pairing RD and there was only one of those on the market this summer and he chose to sign in Vegas.

I want your honest opinion on what more you wanted Chevy to do this offseason? If you are looking at one of the fime a dozen fourth liners on the market then I think you are nitpicking. Chevy really only needs to find that elusive RD and he will have all the foundation pieces in place.
I'll answer your question and then leave this discussion alone for awhile. For the most part our board has become such an echo chamber that everything is Maurice's fault that nothing can really be discussed unless you land on that conclusion. If you don't you will just get shouted down. And I'm not even a big fan of Maurice, though I see him as no worse then most of the old school coaches that dominate the league.

I've actually thought Chevy has had a pretty good off season so far. I liked the DeMelo trade at the TD and the subsequent signing. I thought the Stastny trade was a good move, not because I think he is still a $6.5 M player, but it was a sincere attempt to get Laine producing and happy by bringing back a center he has had his most success with. I also like the Forbort trade as I believe he is much better than most posters give him credit for, though he is still just a bottom pairing talent. Perfetti dropping to us was good fortune and I will even give Chevy credit for that though it would have been a complete disaster not to select the best player left by a large margin.

Any early 2020-21 NHL team rankings usually have us in the 18-21 range and they don't blame coaching but rather a lack of talent outside of our top 6 and goaltending. Maybe outsiders don't see enough in our overall talent and prospect pool or maybe fans see too much? Either way we are most likely going to end next season on the edge of a playoff spot thanks to another Vezina type performance by Helly. Then we will go into season 11 and Chevy will make some modest moves, this board will blame everything on Maurice and we will rinse and repeat. All our hopes will depend on if Perfetti, Heinola and Samberg develop as quickly as possible and we have a brief 1-2 year window with them on ELCs while Scheifele is still in his prime and nothing falls off with Helly. Seems like real long odds to me.

My concern with Chevy that he once again had an adequate and safe offseason and did enough to keep us on the bubble. Not far off where when we inherited what I believed to be a flawed team from Atlanta. What I believe Chevy needs to do is roll the dice and make some ground changing moves. We need to convert a winger into a #1 RHD defenseman we desperately need even if we have to add futures, we need to use Little's LTIR space to add to the depth at forward as we are in a very unique off season where it is very likely you can underpay on the UFA market. I would even pay a reasonable price to move MP to take further advantage of the unique free agent market. Most of all I'd like Chevy to treat this offseason like his job depended on him having playoff success. For some reason this board has developed complete acceptance in the long game even to the point we ignore that our #1 center is soon gong to be on the back end of his prime and all hope after that will depend on Perfetti being able to replace him as a 8-12 range top center in the league. One of the reasons I admire GMs like Sakic is he is willing to trade multiple 2nd, 3rd and 4th round picks for young established players that can contribute immediately and mesh with their young core rather than wait 3-5 years hoping at a least one or 2 of them develop into a useful player.
 
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surixon

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I'll answer your question and then leave this discussion alone for awhile. For the most part our board has become such an echo chamber that everything is Maurice's fault that nothing can really be discussed unless you land on that conclusion. If you don't you will just get shouted down. And I'm not even a big fan of Maurice, though I see him as no worse then most of the old school coaches that dominate the league.

I've actually thought Chevy has had a pretty good off season so far. I liked the DeMelo trade at the TD and the subsequent signing. I thought the Stastny trade was a good move, not because I think he is still a $6.5 M player, but it was a sincere attempt to get Laine producing and happy by bringing back a center he has had his most success with. I also like the Forbort trade as I believe he is much better than most posters give him credit for, though he is still just a bottom pairing talent. Perfetti dropping to us was good fortune and I will even give Chevy credit for that though it would have been a complete disaster not to select the best player left by a large margin.

Any early 2020-21 NHL team rankings usually have us in the 18-21 range and they don't blame coaching but rather a lack of talent outside of our top 6 and goaltending. Maybe outsiders don't see enough in our overall talent and prospect pool or maybe fans see too much? Either way we are most likely going to end next season on the edge of a playoff spot thanks to another Vezina type performance by Helly. Then we will go into season 11 and Chevy will make some modest moves, this board will blame everything on Maurice and we will rinse and repeat. All our hopes will depend on if Perfetti, Heinola and Samberg develop as quickly as possible and we have a brief 1-2 year window with them on ELCs while Scheifele is still in his prime and nothing falls off with Helly. Seems like real long odds to me.

My concern with Chevy that he once again had an adequate and safe offseason and did enough to keep us on the bubble. Not far off where when we inherited what I believed to be a flawed team from Atlanta. What I believe Chevy needs to do is roll the dice and make some ground changing moves. We need to convert a winger into a #1 RHD defenseman we desperately need even if we have to add futures, we need to use Little's LTIR space to add to the depth at forward as we are in a very unique off season where it is very likely you can underpay on the UFA market. I would even pay a reasonable price to move MP to take further advantage of the unique free agent market. Most of all I'd like Chevy to treat this offseason like his job depended on him having playoff success. For some reason this board has developed complete acceptance in the long game even to the point we ignore that our #1 center is soon gong to be on the back end of his prime and all hope after that will depend on Perfetti being able to replace him as a 8-12 range top center in the league. One of the reasons I admire GMs like Sakic is he is willing to trade multiple 2nd, 3rd and 4th round picks for young established players that can contribute immediately and mesh with their young core rather than wait 3-5 years hoping at a least one or 2 of them develop into a useful player.

Good response, sorry if i seem to be mostly on the anti Maurice train lately but I've been dissapointed with the one ice results of the team and how some of our players have seemingly become a bit complacent.

We are on the same page with regards to being aggressive for that top pairing RD. It is really the one major hole we have and Chevy is going to have to trade for or sign it. To be fair to Chevy we haven't seen that caliber of player get moved since Jones and it took a young number 1C to get that.

Anyhow I tend not to pay attention to the pundants. They tend to rank based on how the team does the previous year instead of using any kind of analysis. We were so bad last year so unsurprisingly most media outlooks are lukewarm at best. Just like they were fawning all over us after 17-18. I think we have the forwards and goaltending to be competitive if our defense holds up.

Anyhow good back and fourth, sorry if I am appearing a bit too closed minded atm.
 
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Weezeric

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Jan 27, 2015
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I'll answer your question and then leave this discussion alone for awhile. For the most part our board has become such an echo chamber that everything is Maurice's fault that nothing can really be discussed unless you land on that conclusion. If you don't you will just get shouted down. And I'm not even a big fan of Maurice, though I see him as no worse then most of the old school coaches that dominate the league.

I've actually thought Chevy has had a pretty good off season so far. I liked the DeMelo trade at the TD and the subsequent signing. I thought the Stastny trade was a good move, not because I think he is still a $6.5 M player, but it was a sincere attempt to get Laine producing and happy by bringing back a center he has had his most success with. I also like the Forbort trade as I believe he is much better than most posters give him credit for, though he is still just a bottom pairing talent. Perfetti dropping to us was good fortune and I will even give Chevy credit for that though it would have been a complete disaster not to select the best player left by a large margin.

Any early 2020-21 NHL team rankings usually have us in the 18-21 range and they don't blame coaching but rather a lack of talent outside of our top 6 and goaltending. Maybe outsiders don't see enough in our overall talent and prospect pool or maybe fans see too much? Either way we are most likely going to end next season on the edge of a playoff spot thanks to another Vezina type performance by Helly. Then we will go into season 11 and Chevy will make some modest moves, this board will blame everything on Maurice and we will rinse and repeat. All our hopes will depend on if Perfetti, Heinola and Samberg develop as quickly as possible and we have a brief 1-2 year window with them on ELCs while Scheifele is still in his prime and nothing falls off with Helly. Seems like real long odds to me.

My concern with Chevy that he once again had an adequate and safe offseason and did enough to keep us on the bubble. Not far off where when we inherited what I believed to be a flawed team from Atlanta. What I believe Chevy needs to do is roll the dice and make some ground changing moves. We need to convert a winger into a #1 RHD defenseman we desperately need even if we have to add futures, we need to use Little's LTIR space to add to the depth at forward as we are in a very unique off season where it is very likely you can underpay on the UFA market. I would even pay a reasonable price to move MP to take further advantage of the unique free agent market. Most of all I'd like Chevy to treat this offseason like his job depended on him having playoff success. For some reason this board has developed complete acceptance in the long game even to the point we ignore that our #1 center is soon gong to be on the back end of his prime and all hope after that will depend on Perfetti being able to replace him as a 8-12 range top center in the league. One of the reasons I admire GMs like Sakic is he is willing to trade multiple 2nd, 3rd and 4th round picks for young established players that can contribute immediately and mesh with their young core rather than wait 3-5 years hoping at a least one or 2 of them develop into a useful player.

Im sure Chevy would love to trade a winger and futures for a 1RHD. So would every team. I don’t believe that trade is out there. Sure, you might be able to trade a Laine or Connor for someone like Dougie Hamilton and roll the dice on being able to sign him but I wouldn’t take that risk.
 

Teemusalami204

Registered User
Jul 30, 2014
4,325
3,950
Winnipeg
I'll answer your question and then leave this discussion alone for awhile. For the most part our board has become such an echo chamber that everything is Maurice's fault that nothing can really be discussed unless you land on that conclusion. If you don't you will just get shouted down. And I'm not even a big fan of Maurice, though I see him as no worse then most of the old school coaches that dominate the league.

I've actually thought Chevy has had a pretty good off season so far. I liked the DeMelo trade at the TD and the subsequent signing. I thought the Stastny trade was a good move, not because I think he is still a $6.5 M player, but it was a sincere attempt to get Laine producing and happy by bringing back a center he has had his most success with. I also like the Forbort trade as I believe he is much better than most posters give him credit for, though he is still just a bottom pairing talent. Perfetti dropping to us was good fortune and I will even give Chevy credit for that though it would have been a complete disaster not to select the best player left by a large margin.

Any early 2020-21 NHL team rankings usually have us in the 18-21 range and they don't blame coaching but rather a lack of talent outside of our top 6 and goaltending. Maybe outsiders don't see enough in our overall talent and prospect pool or maybe fans see too much? Either way we are most likely going to end next season on the edge of a playoff spot thanks to another Vezina type performance by Helly. Then we will go into season 11 and Chevy will make some modest moves, this board will blame everything on Maurice and we will rinse and repeat. All our hopes will depend on if Perfetti, Heinola and Samberg develop as quickly as possible and we have a brief 1-2 year window with them on ELCs while Scheifele is still in his prime and nothing falls off with Helly. Seems like real long odds to me.

My concern with Chevy that he once again had an adequate and safe offseason and did enough to keep us on the bubble. Not far off where when we inherited what I believed to be a flawed team from Atlanta. What I believe Chevy needs to do is roll the dice and make some ground changing moves. We need to convert a winger into a #1 RHD defenseman we desperately need even if we have to add futures, we need to use Little's LTIR space to add to the depth at forward as we are in a very unique off season where it is very likely you can underpay on the UFA market. I would even pay a reasonable price to move MP to take further advantage of the unique free agent market. Most of all I'd like Chevy to treat this offseason like his job depended on him having playoff success. For some reason this board has developed complete acceptance in the long game even to the point we ignore that our #1 center is soon gong to be on the back end of his prime and all hope after that will depend on Perfetti being able to replace him as a 8-12 range top center in the league. One of the reasons I admire GMs like Sakic is he is willing to trade multiple 2nd, 3rd and 4th round picks for young established players that can contribute immediately and mesh with their young core rather than wait 3-5 years hoping at a least one or 2 of them develop into a useful player.

I couldn’t of said this better myself
 

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