Morgan Frost next contract?

[Kelmitchell2]

Im gonna say no. It doesn’t have lettuce

Trevor Linden. Isn’t he everyone’s fave?

No, he is not lol not even close if im being honest, that goes to the one and the only, Mr. Joe Sakic

 

[Beef Invictus]

 

[wasup]

Man there are some dumb people on this board . My brain hurts just reading the last couple pages .

 

[Beef Invictus]

Man there are some dumb people on this board . My brain hurts just reading the last couple pages .

Please

Enlighten us.

 

[JojoTheWhale]

Cates has an off the chart hockey IQ as well as great hands,

1. THIS BOARD TOLD ME ALL THOSE HEXTALL PLAYERS WERE GOOD MAYBE YALL NEED TO CALM DOWN AND NOT OVERREACT
2. Here's a solid but unspectacular Forward I describe like a borderline HOFer.

In the same day? One day apart maybe? Breathtaking.

 

[Starat327]

Please

Enlighten us.

U wouldn't undurstnd. 2 dum.

 

[deadhead]

1. THIS BOARD TOLD ME ALL THOSE HEXTALL PLAYERS WERE GOOD MAYBE YALL NEED TO CALM DOWN AND NOT OVERREACT
2. Here's a solid but unspectacular Forward I describe like a borderline HOFer.

In the same day? One day apart maybe? Breathtaking.

Oh come on, I describe Cates as a smarter, slower version of Laughton with more upside. That's not quite "a borderline HOFer."

The problem with Hextall's drafts is he started in 2014, and in 2022 we're now seeing Frost, Cates and Allison break into the starting lineup. Talk about lagged effects. And he, not Flahr, was obsessed with size and "toughness" (the Flyer way).

It does show why those who want to tear it down to the studs and rebuild should be prepared for shitty hockey until the next decade.
Those top five picks may start at 19, but the rest of your team will take 5-8 years to arrive (first you have to draft them over a period of years, then wait until they're able to contribute at a NHL level at above a replacement level).

 

[FlyguyOX]

f*** Hextall

 

[JojoTheWhale]

Oh come on, I describe Cates as a smarter, slower version of Laughton with more upside. That's not quite "a borderline HOFer."

"Cates has an off the chart hockey IQ as well as great hands"

I am willing to accept the idea that this means wildly different things to you and I, but I'm about as sure as I can get that vernacular consensus comes much closer to my interpretation. Off the charts hockey IQ to me is Couturier territory.

I would also submit that development includes a time and place and organizational investment in a player. Player X busting here is not necessarily proved correct by it not working out with another team. Nor does it prove anything in the affirmative of course. The point is that we don't know and shouldn't draw sweeping conclusions from it.

 

[JojoTheWhale]

Talking about zone starts doesn't mean anything. They start 2-3 times more on the fly than they do with faceoffs. It just doesn't have as much as an impact as some might thing.

Cates is playing with TK and Farabee more than any other forward. EH's xGAR model does not like TK or Farabee due to his defense. This is why, in part, Cates' QoT looks terrible according to EH. But, the xGAR that you referenced for Cates' teammates is total impact, not offensive specific. EH ranks TK in the ~72 percentile for total offensive and Farabee in the 69 percentile for total offense. It ranks TK in the ~2 percentile for total defense and ~10 percentile for Farabee. Both are very good offensive players, reflected in the model you referenced. I can also post All Three Zones data to corroborate how good TK has been if you want me to, albeit it's a bit dated.

EH model has Cates at the 21 percentile for overall offense. Mostly due to GAR, not xGAR. Personally, I don't like GAR, I would much prefer xGAR, but that's just me. His offensive xGAR is not good. Further, Cates' RAPM xGF is almost as low as Deslauirers. He's ranked 332 of 375 in forwards who has played over 300 mins (that's 11th percentile). You probably know this because you are quoting EH stats, but for those who don't know, RAPM is the best attempt to individualize impacts, although I'm not a huge fan of it.

So the point is that, Cates isn't producing, despite being put in a position to do so.

And, the point about Frost putting up 8 points against Ariziona is so dumb. You know, every team plays Arizona twice, right? But how many players have put up multiple 4-point games, against any team? It's ridiculous that is held against him. Now, that doesn't mean he isn't inconsistent, and doesn't need more consistency - I agree. But to say that putting up two 4-point games isn't impressive, and actually holding that against him, is just dumb.

I just wanted to thank you for both consistently using data well and taking the time to understand/explain it. It takes effort and it's appreciated.

 

[VladDrag]

I just wanted to thank you for both consistently using data well and taking the time to understand/explain it. It takes effort and it's appreciated.

Thanks, Jojo. I am a scientist that has to interpret lots of datasets, so it’s something I just have grown to enjoy. Having to explain these large datasets to clients with zero scientific background is also part of the job. You kind of get a feel for what is important and how to dumb it down.

 

[deadhead]

"Cates has an off the chart hockey IQ as well as great hands"

I am willing to accept the idea that this means wildly different things to you and I, but I'm about as sure as I can get that vernacular consensus comes much closer to my interpretation. Off the charts hockey IQ to me is Couturier territory.

I would also submit that development includes a time and place and organizational investment in a player. Player X busting here is not necessarily proved correct by it not working out with another team. Nor does it prove anything in the affirmative of course. The point is that we don't know and shouldn't draw sweeping conclusions from it.

I've neither praised or denigrated their development effort, like you say, it's hard to prove either way.
But when few players leave your organization and shine elsewhere, Occam's razor suggests the problem is scouting.

Cates stood out in the WJC b/c of his IQ, and was a leader at Minn-Duluth.
He and Farabee both have a knack of being in the right place and the puck seems to find them.
And yes, I think Cates may turn out to be on the level of Couts when it comes to IQ, he's not as skilled or as big as Couts, however.

 

[Starat327]

Thanks, Jojo. I am a scientist that has to interpret lots of datasets, so it’s something I just have grown to enjoy. Having to explain these large datasets to clients with zero scientific background is also part of the job. You kind of get a feel for what is important and how to dumb it down.

Blonde AND a scientist, eh? Ready to ditch the loser you were with in your pictures?

 

[Beef Invictus]

Oh come on, I describe Cates as a smarter, slower version of Laughton with more upside. That's not quite "a borderline HOFer."

The problem with Hextall's drafts is he started in 2014, and in 2022 we're now seeing Frost, Cates and Allison break into the starting lineup. Talk about lagged effects. And he, not Flahr, was obsessed with size and "toughness" (the Flyer way).

It does show why those who want to tear it down to the studs and rebuild should be prepared for shitty hockey until the next decade.
Those top five picks may start at 19, but the rest of your team will take 5-8 years to arrive (first you have to draft them over a period of years, then wait until they're able to contribute at a NHL level at above a replacement level).

Flahr is obsessed with size, toughness, and pucks deep. How often does he need to openly tell you that while the team's actions match before you believe him?

I've neither praised or denigrated their development effort, like you say, it's hard to prove either way.
But when few players leave your organization and shine elsewhere, Occam's razor suggests the problem is scouting.

Cates stood out in the WJC b/c of his IQ, and was a leader at Minn-Duluth.
He and Farabee both have a knack of being in the right place and the puck seems to find them.
And yes, I think Cates may turn out to be on the level of Couts when it comes to IQ, he's not as skilled or as big as Couts, however.

A player falling years behind in development pursuing bad habits isn't something that is magically, immediately fixed by a change in location. For example, how many teams are willing to invest the time, money, and attention required to rehab a player years behind in development when there's a constant stream of undamaged players always coming up? Why get that guy to remember hockey is more than hitting the gym, grinding the boards, and dumping the puck?

 

[Magua]

You kind of get a feel for what is important and how to dumb it down.

 

[deadhead]

Flahr is obsessed with size, toughness, and pucks deep. How often does he need to openly tell you that while the team's actions match before you believe him?

Because Hextall drafted far more size first players in five years than Flahr in four.
The only player who is size first is McDonald in the 6th rd.
Gauthier, Kaplan, Attard, Foerster are offense first picks.
York, Brink, Tuomaala are small.

Yes, he talks about getting stronger a lot in relation to development - that's b/c most 18 year olds are physically undeveloped, and a key to development is getting them stronger without impacting agility and speed. In fact, if you're drafting for upside, you look for kids with skill who are physically immature and bet on them filling out as they age. If you good at spotting these prospects, they add strength and speed as they fill out (stronger legs and buttocks).

I'd point out this is an issue in all sports, the Phillies spend millions on that side of player development. Especially their Latin American players, who often gain 20-30 lbs by the time they come stateside and have big jumps in velocity.

 

[Beef Invictus]

Because Hextall drafted far more size first players in five years than Flahr in four.
The only player who is size first is McDonald in the 6th rd.
Gauthier, Kaplan, Attard, Foerster are offense first picks.
York, Brink, Tuomaala are small.

Yes, he talks about getting stronger a lot in relation to development - that's b/c most 18 year olds are physically undeveloped, and a key to development is getting them stronger without impacting agility and speed. In fact, if you're drafting for upside, you look for kids with skill who are physically immature and bet on them filling out as they age. If you good at spotting these prospects, they add strength and speed as they fill out (stronger legs and buttocks).

I'd point out this is an issue in all sports, the Phillies spend millions on that side of player development. Especially their Latin American players, who often gain 20-30 lbs by the time they come stateside and have big jumps in velocity.

It's the only thing he talks about. That's it. It's the only thing his fat brain can comprehend. It's not a thing he talks about "a lot." It is THE thing he talks about.

Also, here's a big LOL at the idea that you can handwave off big-dude picks because they are "offense first." Gauthier is especially laughable. That was a floor pick based on size, not maximum offensive potential. We were joking about how Gauthier would be their target over better offensive players long, long before the draft. It was easy to see coming.

You know, you don't need to defend every single thing the team does. They're sitting near the bottom of the standings (again) and their future is bleak. Obviously, they are doing a ton of things wrong. Many more things wrong than they are doing right. So why is "Defend/Justify EVERYTHING" your default position?

 

[Chicken N Raffls]

Football wasn't enough? Now we're turning hockey into baseball??

 

[wasup]

Please

Enlighten us.

Don't worry I'm on your side . It's a lot of the usual subjects but today they have freinds . lol

 

[Beef Invictus]

Don't worry I'm on your side . It's a lot of the usual subjects but today they have freinds . lol

I was hoping you were talking about hot dogs. This is disappointing.

 

[deadhead]

It's the only thing he talks about. That's it. It's the only thing his fat brain can comprehend. It's not a thing he talks about "a lot." It is THE thing he talks about.

Also, here's a big LOL at the idea that you can handwave off big-dude picks because they are "offense first." Gauthier is especially laughable. That was a floor pick based on size, not maximum offensive potential. We were joking about how Gauthier would be their target over better offensive players long, long before the draft. It was easy to see coming.

You know, you don't need to defend every single thing the team does. They're sitting near the bottom of the standings (again) and their future is bleak. Obviously, they are doing a ton of things wrong. Many more things wrong than they are doing right. So why is "Defend/Justify EVERYTHING" your default position?

#6 Jiricick, big RHD 26g 5-16 21 AHL
#7 Korchinski 34g 6-41 47 in the WHL LHD [loaded team, 7 players ppg+]
#8 Kasper 41g 8-12 20 in the SHL
#9 Savoie 41g 20-35 55 in the WHL
#10 Mintyukiov 49gg 18-47 76 in the OHL LHD
#11 Geekie 43g 21-23 44 in the WHL
#12 Mateychuk 47g 4-45 51 in the WHL
#13 Nazar 80g 43-62 105 USHL/USDP
#14 McGroatrty 28g 10-13 23 U of Michigan
#15 Letterimaki 29g 3-6 9 Allsvenskan
#16 Ostlund 28g 7-14 21 Allsvenskan

 

[Ghosts Beer]

Coaches have more control over faceoff starts and that's more indicative of usage than OTF since the puck is quickly moving around.

Wait, so TK and Farabee are completely lacking defense hence Cates has to cover for them. That's exactly what I'm getting at. How does Cates get involved offensively when TK and Farabee are taking all the offensive risks and Cates has to be conservative to cover for them. Which is fine. Torts literally says as much:

“Catesy’s a guy I always use against one of the top lines on the opposing team.”

“Yeah, you forget (he’s a rookie).” — January 8

“Catesy’s kind of the heartbeat (of his line) there, as far as the defensive part of the game and positioning.” — January 16

“You look at mistakes, but there’s always … I call it ‘the save the day’ guy. There’s always time to recover, and someone to help out your buddy. Catesy does that. I just have a tremendous amount of trust in him, in any situation that we put him in.

“I haven’t run across too many players that have been taken off the wing, put at center, in a team that’s been floundering, that couldn’t defend, that’s trying to defend, and get the minutes that he’s gotten so far in the first 50 games. I just don’t have anybody on the top of my head right now that I think could accomplish what he’s done. And a lot of people don’t think there’s any offense there — I do think there’s offense there. But his main concentration right now — and he understands his role — is making sure he’s sound the other way. I think eventually, as we keep growing the team, you’re gonna find some offense in this guy too.” — January 26

The arizona thing was to highlight his inconsistency for context of the "durr more points than Cates durrr". I think people can watch games and see the chances Cates generates either directly via a pass or by starting a cycle in the O-zone by being strong on the puck. I agree he needs some more puck luck to go his way. But again I just saw last night where he setup JVR for a grade A chance that JVR floundered.

You’re banging your head against a wall on this board arguing that Cates is a more valuable player than Frost.

But you are right & have made multiple good posts in this thread.

 

[Beef Invictus]

You’re banging your head against a wall on this board arguing that Cates is a more valuable player than Frost.

But you are right & have made multiple good posts in this thread.

How come Cates' linemates are better with Frost than they are with Cates?

The fact that you were angling to blame the season entirely on Frost before the year started told us all how extreme your bizarre hatred of Frost is.

 

[Curufinwe]

This is so, so simplistic I'm not sure I should even entertain it.

Cates has the 3rd lowest Offensive Zone Faceoff % on the team at 27.41%. Arguably the lowest among regulars in the lineup.

Frost is 3rd highest on the team behind noted studs (lol) Hayes and JVR at 37.11% Offensive Zone Faceoff %.

Cates TK and Farabee face the toughest lines night in and out where their QoC has a weighted average of xGAR+-/60 of 0.21 at EV whereas Frost is tied for 2nd lowest on the team at 0.17.

Frost has the 3rd highest Quality of Teammate (Qot) average on the team at 0.14 xGAR+-/60 whereas Cates is tied at 5th lowest at 0.05.

So your point of usage is completely null. Not to mention Frost racked up 16% of his points in two games against one of the worst teams in the league and while you can tell he has improved his all around game and flashes occasionally, he's still way too inconsistent. I'd love for him to prove he's a top six guy, but the things you pointed out tell me nothing.


Right so clearly Hayes is a top 6 player because POINTS.


Yeah Farabee is really killing it out there eh

The really sad part is that you genuinely thought you were smart typing this out.

Farabee's ES production has been good this season. It was very good earlier in the season, but it's fallen off recently because he's gotten stuck playing with Cates, who can't create anything for his wingers.

 

[Brent Burns Beard]

So…. Morgan Frost, sounds like he is no Noah Cates but then again, who really is?