MMA General Discussion and Fight Announcements 8.0

[Avs_19]

After some rumors that Jones/Gus did 900k buys.. things have settled in and they are around 700k. Still a great #, but not a crazy one like 900k.

It was a very weird lead up so it's hard to say for certain if this means Jones is now a legit draw but that's a really good number for them. We'll find out soon enough if it translates to his next fight, which is a stacked card with two title fights. Well, it's stacked right now but we know how that goes.

Also, if Nunes can't be a draw after this then she never will be. A win over Tate on a Lesnar card couldn't do it for her and neither could a win over Rousey but she got overshadowed in the aftermath of both of those cards. Now she just became the double champ after beating the unbeatable champion on a card that did big numbers. I like the idea of a quick turnaround on the same card as Rose/Andrade. Those international cards usually don't do too well on PPV but it should still give us somewhat of an idea if people care about her.

 

[m9]

I was looking at some upcoming cards and have you guys seen what they have for UFC 234? The card is in four weeks and there are currently two PPV worthy fights on there. Either they're going to add something this week or they're treating this PPV like one of the overseas fight night shows.

They announced the rest of the card, and there isn't anything of note added. Great main event and an intriguing co-main, but the rest of the card is really, really bad.

 

[Avs_19]

They announced the rest of the card, and there isn't anything of note added. Great main event and an intriguing co-main, but the rest of the card is really, really bad.

I figured that'd happen and that's too bad. They could've put a good main card together with those two fights at the top.

 

[Peter Griffin]

They announced the rest of the card, and there isn't anything of note added. Great main event and an intriguing co-main, but the rest of the card is really, really bad.

That’s gotta be one of the worst PPV undercards in a long time. Looks like they just booked the two main fights and forgot about the rest of the card.

 

[pistolpete11]

Wouldn't you love to be a fly on the wall at the UFC?

I think it would be fascinating to hear whether they really did say, "f*** it. The top 2 fights are good enough." Or if they were trying to add other fights and just couldn't get anything to stick.

I'd also love to be there for the contract negotiations. Like if this PPV does <200k buys, do they hold that against Whittaker/Gastelum? Or would they realize it is because the card after those 2 fights is dog shit?

I don't think Whittaker-Gastelum sells a ton of PPVs regardless. Hopefully for everybody's benefit Stylebender has enough hype around him and Anderson still has some drawing power to make this a decent PPV numbers wise.

 

[m9]

Wouldn't you love to be a fly on the wall at the UFC?

I think it would be fascinating to hear whether they really did say, "**** it. The top 2 fights are good enough." Or if they were trying to add other fights and just couldn't get anything to stick.

I'd also love to be there for the contract negotiations. Like if this PPV does <200k buys, do they hold that against Whittaker/Gastelum? Or would they realize it is because the card after those 2 fights is dog ****?

I don't think Whittaker-Gastelum sells a ton of PPVs regardless. Hopefully for everybody's benefit Stylebender has enough hype around him and Anderson still has some drawing power to make this a decent PPV numbers wise.

You really have to wonder about some of the decisions they make. UFC235 has like 10 fights that could be on the UFC234 main card. For example, you could move Holly Holm v Aspen Ladd into that 3rd spot on the PPV and I think it immediately helps. Holm also has history in Australia, so you would think it would be an easy fix. You wouldn't even notice taking it off UFC235 with the depth the card has. Maybe it doesn't help the PPV numbers, but it balances the cards a bit.

But yeah, I don't think this card sells much anyway. We're probably looking at around 250-300k at the very most.

 

[pistolpete11]

You really have to wonder about some of the decisions they make. UFC235 has like 10 fights that could be on the UFC234 main card. For example, you could move Holly Holm v Aspen Ladd into that 3rd spot on the PPV and I think it immediately helps. Holm also has history in Australia, so you would think it would be an easy fix. You wouldn't even notice taking it off UFC235 with the depth the card has. Maybe it doesn't help the PPV numbers, but it balances the cards a bit.

But yeah, I don't think this card sells much anyway. We're probably looking at around 250-300k at the very most.

Yeah, Holly, Cody, OSP, Stephens/Zabit. Any of those fights you think would help this card. Shit, even Lawler/Askren. That would actually make a significant difference in the PPV and UFC 235 would still be stacked. Lawler and Askren probably have enough clout where if they didn't want to go to Australia, then they aren't going to Australia, though.

I don't think Holly having a history in Australia factors in though. With Whittaker being Australian and Stylebender being New Zealand, they should have no problem with the live crowd.

Anything above 200k PPV buys I'd count as a success. Whittaker-Romero 2 only did 250k buys and that was a much more interesting main event IMO and had Colby-RDA for the interim title, Holly, Arlovski, and CM Punk on the main card. (I know it doesn't effect PPV, but the prelims also had Overeem-Blaydes, Gadelha-Esparza, Lamas, Benavedez-Pettis, Anthony Smith-Rashad, and Oliveira-Guida.)

Whittaker-Romero 1 only did 130k buys with a slightly better undercard (Overeem-Werdum, a relatively unknown Blaydes, and A. Pettis).

 

[tmurfin]

I just don't get why they put up and comer, YOUNG, talented fighters like Whitaker, Gastelum and Style Bender on a super weak card. Whitakers not ready to carry a card yet, and these guys all deserve the eyes.

 

[m9]

I just don't get why they put up and comer, YOUNG, talented fighters like Whitaker, Gastelum and Style Bender on a super weak card. Whitakers not ready to carry a card yet, and these guys all deserve the eyes.

It's kind of a tough spot. Adding more depth to the card would be nice, but it's not going to sell anyway without a big-name main event. The problem is that there are so few main event calibre fighters right now that will sell PPVs. I read a stat that from January to November 2018, Khabib/Conor accounted for almost 50% of the PPV buys for the year.

I'd like to see the UFC try some gimmick cards in 2019. Not CM Punk gimmicks, but maybe some themes. The all-heavyweight PPV did decent buys (500k+) and that should be given another look. I've talked before about making UFC237 the all-female card with all the belts on the line. Do a full Brazil v USA card in Brazil at some point.

 

[tmurfin]

It's kind of a tough spot. Adding more depth to the card would be nice, but it's not going to sell anyway without a big-name main event. The problem is that there are so few main event calibre fighters right now that will sell PPVs. I read a stat that from January to November 2018, Khabib/Conor accounted for almost 50% of the PPV buys for the year.

I'd like to see the UFC try some gimmick cards in 2019. Not CM Punk gimmicks, but maybe some themes. The all-heavyweight PPV did decent buys (500k+) and that should be given another look. I've talked before about making UFC237 the all-female card with all the belts on the line. Do a full Brazil v USA card in Brazil at some point.

Agree. Mix it up a bit, bring a bit of showmanship back. There’s no need to go full on gimmick, but there’s compromises that can be made. I really miss when they actually named events, something as simple as that could help draw a few extra eyes to certain events.

 

[m9]

Good article today on (I believe) MMAjunkie about Jose Aldo. Basically stated that they didn't want the extra strain of a main event (5 rounds) vs Moicano since he knows he isn't in line for a title fight.

Also says that he has 3 fights left on his contract and will fight all three in 2019 in Brazil, then retire. So Moicano, then two more, then he's done.

 

[pistolpete11]

Good article today on (I believe) MMAjunkie about Jose Aldo. Basically stated that they didn't want the extra strain of a main event (5 rounds) vs Moicano since he knows he isn't in line for a title fight.

Also says that he has 3 fights left on his contract and will fight all three in 2019 in Brazil, then retire. So Moicano, then two more, then he's done.

I heard one of the radio/podcast guys mention this a while back. Makes a ton of sense if you're Aldo. Money's the same. You've already built your name. Why put your body through not only potentially 5 rounds, but training for 5 rounds as well?

I'm not quite to Chael's level of wanting to get rid of 5 round fights all together, but I'm somewhere in between now. I think 5 round fights should be reserved for title fights only (and if there is ever a PPV main event that isn't a title fight, i.e. Conor). I think it would make title fights that much more interesting and it hopefully saves guys some injuries which means they can turn around faster which means the divisions move faster and they have a better chance at filling all of these cards. Obviously you can still get hurt in 3 rounds and just because a fight is scheduled to go 5 doesn't mean it will, but still. I think it's an unnecessary risk to take.

 

[1specter]

Looks like McGregor may be dealing with an assault allegation?

 

[m9]

I heard one of the radio/podcast guys mention this a while back. Makes a ton of sense if you're Aldo. Money's the same. You've already built your name. Why put your body through not only potentially 5 rounds, but training for 5 rounds as well?

I'm not quite to Chael's level of wanting to get rid of 5 round fights all together, but I'm somewhere in between now. I think 5 round fights should be reserved for title fights only (and if there is ever a PPV main event that isn't a title fight, i.e. Conor). I think it would make title fights that much more interesting and it hopefully saves guys some injuries which means they can turn around faster which means the divisions move faster and they have a better chance at filling all of these cards. Obviously you can still get hurt in 3 rounds and just because a fight is scheduled to go 5 doesn't mean it will, but still. I think it's an unnecessary risk to take.

I'd have to really dig into the 5 round non-title main events and see how many fights went 4 or 5 rounds. There have been some great fights/finishes that needed that extra 10 minutes.

 

[m9]

Looks like McGregor may be dealing with an assault allegation?

There was the rumour of the sexual assault a month ago, but I heard/read it wasn't Conor involved but someone else.

 

[1specter]

There was the rumour of the sexual assault a month ago, but I heard/read it wasn't Conor involved but someone else.

Yeah this was the first real sort of confirmation of any kind that McGregor was accused. Per Irish law they are not allowed to release the names of the accused person until a formal conviction is made.

 

[pistolpete11]

I'd have to really dig into the 5 round non-title main events and see how many fights went 4 or 5 rounds. There have been some great fights/finishes that needed that extra 10 minutes.

For sure. Look no further than Yair-Korean Zombie. But the other side of that coin is that those guys are both going to be out for a while most likely.

There's pros and cons, but I'd do away with them except for the title fights. But I don't think anyone except for Chael has mentioned it, so it's probably not even on the UFC's radar.

 

[Avs_19]

The first two ESPN main events are Ngannou vs. Velasquez (February 17) and Barboza vs. Gaethje (March 30). The third one is rumoured to be Romero vs. Costa (April 27) but it's not official yet.

Those are some fun, important, and PPV quality fights that'll be on TV. It looks like they'll continue with what they did on Fox where the main event is between two top contenders and then there's some interesting but not great fights underneath. I thought they might stack the first one but that's not the case.

Ngannou vs. Velasquez
Vick vs. Felder
Casey vs. Calvillo
Caceres vs. Gracie
Luque vs. Barberena
Fili vs. Jury

 

[tmurfin]

Yeah this was the first real sort of confirmation of any kind that McGregor was accused. Per Irish law they are not allowed to release the names of the accused person until a formal conviction is made.

They’ve supposedly known/been talking about it in Ireland since the day after it allegedly happened. There’s a bunch of Whatsapp messages floating around with people talking about it, and talking about Conor spending days in crack dens with pictures etc etc. This is obviously all hearsay but man, I don’t like the guy at all, but I hope it’s not true, what a way to completely f*** up your life. And some of the things I read on those messages about the assault are pretty brutal..

 

[m9]

They’ve supposedly known/been talking about it in Ireland since the day after it allegedly happened. There’s a bunch of Whatsapp messages floating around with people talking about it, and talking about Conor spending days in crack dens with pictures etc etc. This is obviously all hearsay but man, I don’t like the guy at all, but I hope it’s not true, what a way to completely **** up your life. And some of the things I read on those messages about the assault are pretty brutal..

I would be pretty shocked if Conor wasn't pretty deep in terms of coke and whatever else based on multiple incidents the last few years. And if this is how is in public, it's probably 10x worse behind the scenes. That doesn't make him a rapist, but you can paint a story pretty quickly questioning some of his life decisions. We'll see what happens. He also has enough money to make many issues go away if needed.

 

[m9]

The first two ESPN main events are Ngannou vs. Velasquez (February 17) and Barboza vs. Gaethje (March 30). The third one is rumoured to be Romero vs. Costa (April 27) but it's not official yet.

Those are some fun, important, and PPV quality fights that'll be on TV. It looks like they'll continue with what they did on Fox where the main event is between two top contenders and then there's some interesting but not great fights underneath. I thought they might stack the first one but that's not the case.

Ngannou vs. Velasquez
Vick vs. Felder
Casey vs. Calvillo
Caceres vs. Gracie
Luque vs. Barberena
Fili vs. Jury

Yeah, I definitely thought this card would have a bit more bite to it. Definitely going for excitement over names/relevance.

 

[1specter]

They’ve supposedly known/been talking about it in Ireland since the day after it allegedly happened. There’s a bunch of Whatsapp messages floating around with people talking about it, and talking about Conor spending days in crack dens with pictures etc etc. This is obviously all hearsay but man, I don’t like the guy at all, but I hope it’s not true, what a way to completely **** up your life. And some of the things I read on those messages about the assault are pretty brutal..

There's also the rumoured baby with some Liverpool model, she has a lawsuit against him supposedly.

With all of these distractions and the money he's made I don't think we'll ever see him get back to the point he was at pre-Floyd.

 

[BGDDYKWL]

I feel like this Bellator event could've really used a Chael/Mitrione fight. Surprised they didn't do that.

Am I crazy to think Fedor pulls the upset here? Bader's got a friggin' 8-pack at 230 pounds which is ridiculous, but is he gonna be able to hold Fedor down? I'm skeptical. We all know how freakishly strong/athletic Fedor is. Bader's always been a little more show than go IMO. I feel like Fedor's gonna catch him with one of his trademark looping punches in a scramble.

Interested to see how Swagger looks. Very late to be entering the game, but HW is so thin I wouldn't be shocked to see him beat a guy like Mitrione this year. Looked to be in phenomenal shape at 240. Also, not sure what the stats are but his arms look very long, I'd guess 80"+ reach.

 

[m9]

I think Bader smashes him.

As for another good fight being needed on the card, Mousasi was supposed to defend his belt but pulled out.

 

[BGDDYKWL]

I just meant more from a promotional aspect. Obviously Chael/Mitrione isn't a "great" fight, but they would've been great for the build-up. Bader doesn't excel in that regard and obviously Fedor doesn't either.

Do people who see Bader winning expect him to be able to impose his will and keep the fight on the ground, or is it more Fedor being so far removed from his prime that Bader will be able to beat him everywhere? I feel like Fedor still has a power/speed advantage.