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OT: MLB Thread - Part XVIII: Home Stretch for Yanks. Coup de Grâce for Mets.

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GoAwayPanarin

GoAwayPanarin

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Sale has a 4.25 ERA since August 1st.


As long as Kluber doesn't get completely bombed, the Cy should be his but we've seen undeserving Boston pitchers win this award as recently as last year so there is that.
 
LaffyTaffyNYR

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Sale has lost the cy young. its Kluber's pretty easily. Hell Severino/Sale is getting closer and closer.
 
sbjnyc

sbjnyc

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This is the rankings from ESPN's cy young predictor.

1 Corey Kluber CLE 175.8
2 Chris Sale BOS 165.8
3 Craig Kimbrel BOS 156.2
4 Drew Pomeranz BOS 142.4
5 Carlos Carrasco CLE 138.4
6 Alex Colome TB 133.5
7 Ervin Santana MIN 127.8
8 Luis Severino NYY 126.6

Here's the formula: Cy Young Points (CYP) = ((5*IP/9)-ER) + (SO/12) + (SV*2.5) + Shutouts + ((W*6)-(L*2)) + VB
VB is 12 point Victory bonus for winning division.

I personally think Severino should be higher on the list, at least 5th (BTW did someone earlier in the thread say kimbrel was having a bad season?)

Edit: BTW if you remove the victory bonus severino would be ranked 5th. :)
 
Machinehead

Machinehead

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sbjnyc said:
It's the same formula they've used for years I believe. You really think it's rigged?
Click to expand...

It's ESPN. And it's the Red Sox.

If it's not rigged, it's garbage. One team with three top 5 Cy Young finishers? They're not even the best team in the AL. They might not even win their division.
 
LaffyTaffyNYR

LaffyTaffyNYR

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sbjnyc said:
This is the rankings from ESPN's cy young predictor.

1 Corey Kluber CLE 175.8
2 Chris Sale BOS 165.8
3 Craig Kimbrel BOS 156.2
4 Drew Pomeranz BOS 142.4
5 Carlos Carrasco CLE 138.4
6 Alex Colome TB 133.5
7 Ervin Santana MIN 127.8
8 Luis Severino NYY 126.6

Here's the formula: Cy Young Points (CYP) = ((5*IP/9)-ER) + (SO/12) + (SV*2.5) + Shutouts + ((W*6)-(L*2)) + VB
VB is 12 point Victory bonus for winning division.

I personally think Severino should be higher on the list, at least 5th (BTW did someone earlier in the thread say kimbrel was having a bad season?)

Edit: BTW if you remove the victory bonus severino would be ranked 5th. :)
Click to expand...

This list is awful other than the first 2. There's no way that any of Pomeranz, Carassco, or Santana are ahead of Severino (unless only wins matter)

and colome being on there is laughable.. sure he leads the league in saves, elite closers don't have a 3.22 ERA
 
sbjnyc

sbjnyc

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Machinehead said:
It's ESPN. And it's the Red Sox.

If it's not rigged, it's garbage. One team with three top 5 Cy Young finishers? They're not even the best team in the AL. They might not even win their division.
Click to expand...
It's Bill James' old formula - and they all got 12 points for the red sox being in 1st so if they don't win the division they lose and severino gets the 12 and moves up to 4th.
 
LaffyTaffyNYR

LaffyTaffyNYR

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You get 12 points just for winning a division?. please. Severino is better than Pomeranz in every meaningful category for a SP, same with Carassco and Santana (other than wins).
 
GoAwayPanarin

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There literally isn't a single argument for the ESPN list.

Pomeranz over Severino is LOL worthy. The gap between Pomeranz and Severino is bigger than the gap between Sale and Severino.
 
sbjnyc

sbjnyc

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Geoff Gorden said:
There literally isn't a single argument for the ESPN list.

Pomeranz over Severino is LOL worthy. The gap between Pomeranz and Severino is bigger than the gap between Sale and Severino.
Click to expand...

It's a predictor not a ranking. The ESPN predictions use Bill James' formula. What objective formula are you using to rank pitchers?
 
GoAwayPanarin

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Just to illustrate how horrible the James model is:

ERA:

Sale: 2.86
Severino: 2.93
Pomeranz: 3.28

IP

Sale: 201.1
Severino:184.1
Pomeranz: 159.1

WHIP

Sale: 0.96
Severino:1.03
Pomeranz:1.35

H/9

Sale: 6.8
Severino: 6.9
Pomeranz: 8.5

K/9

Sale: 12.8
Severino: 10.5
Pomeranz: 9.4

FIP:

Sale 2.31
Severino: 3.10
Pomeranz: 3.82

ERA+

Sale: 158
Severino: 155
Pomeranz: 138

But Pomeranz has more wins and plays for a 1st place team! It'd look even worse if I threw Santana into the mix.

Don't get me started on having relievers in there. Unless you Eric Gagne a season and there aren't any real deserving starters, they should never be in the discussion.
 
sbjnyc

sbjnyc

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Geoff Gorden said:
Their actual statistics?

That model sucks. There isn't an argument for any of the guys ahead of Severino other than the 1st 2.
Click to expand...
What non-actual statistics are in the James model?

I get it, you're a yankee fan and hate the sox but these models are the same every year. So what objective model do you use that is better at predicting cy young winners every year?
 
GoAwayPanarin

GoAwayPanarin

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Look above.

Take the blue and orange glasses off. James' model sucks. If thats the type of list it'll compile, it sucked last year too and every other year its been in existence

Edit: just got a look at last years list, just as horrible as this years.
 
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