LaffyTaffyNYR
Registered User
- Feb 25, 2012
- 17,113
- 2,662
OT: MLB Thread - Part XVIII: Home Stretch for Yanks. Coup de Grâce for Mets.
- Thread starter Bob Richards
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Steve Kournianos
@thedraftanalyst
What a joy Kluber is to watch. Six k's and one-hit ball through 5. At 63 pitches. Reminds me a lot of Maddux in 1995. Ridiculous command, deadly change up and that 90 mph fastball must feel like 120 mph because the Royals are late as hell.
Steve Kournianos
@thedraftanalyst
Gray is an infuriating pitcher. No way I will ever watch this kid pitch unless it's a Game 7.
Nibble, nibble, nibble. Slow, slow, slow. Junk, junk, junk.
Feel like I'm watching a 12-year-old sandlot pitcher at Marind Park.
Nibble, nibble, nibble. Slow, slow, slow. Junk, junk, junk.
Feel like I'm watching a 12-year-old sandlot pitcher at Marind Park.
E-Train
Registered User
For all the talk about how great the Didi was (and is), the Padres traded Kluber for 160 games of Ryan Ludwick.
Actually it was Jake Westbrook in a 3 way deal.
Ludwick went to San Diego, Westbrook to StL (where he would end up winning a WS in 2011) and Kluber to Cleveland.
Massive fail by San Diego, but thats why they are what they are.
E-Train
Registered User
Yes, Cleveland gave up Westbrook but the Padres dealt Kluber to get Ludwick. Brutal.
Again, it's a predictor not a ranking. It's only had 1 miss in 5 years taking Price over Keuchel in 2015. How good must a closer be over the starters to finish on top?
Just checked and the answer is in 2006 the model predicted Billy Wagner over Webb.
So without cherry picking stats like other people here, how would you model it?
Machinehead
GoAwayBrady
And then they traded Cashner, who is having a phenomenal season, for Jarred Cosart who is...not phenomenal.
Machinehead
GoAwayBrady
Again, it's a predictor not a ranking. It's only had 1 miss in 5 years taking Price over Keuchel in 2015. How good must a closer be over the starters to finish on top?
Just checked and the answer is in 2006 the model predicted Billy Wagner over Webb.
So without cherry picking stats like other people here, how would you model it?
It's not the winners that are being predicted that's awful, it's the other finalists.
Again, it's a predictor not a ranking. It's only had 1 miss in 5 years taking Price over Keuchel in 2015. How good must a closer be over the starters to finish on top?
Just checked and the answer is in 2006 the model predicted Billy Wagner over Webb.
So without cherry picking stats like other people here, how would you model it?
Yes cherry picking with major pitching categories
How else should we judge pitchers? What do you suggest that we judge people by? The length of their spikes? How they oil their gloves? The uniforms they wear (seeing as how you said You'd have severino 5th, I think this applies for you.)
Let me ask you again since you ignored this, probably purposely because you don't have a good answer, but I'd like to see you justify having Pomeranz, Santana or Carrasco over Severino.
Again, because Bill James said so is not an answer.
Because it wasn't created to predict who'd come in 7th. That's not how predictors work - I've had to say that several times already. And as I noted, getting rid of the victory bonus and Severino is 4th or 5th. I don't know that the victory bonus was in James' original formula.Yes cherry picking with major pitching categories
What do you suggest that we judge people by? The length of their spikes? How they oil their gloves? The uniforms they wear (seeing as how you said You'd have severino 5th, I think this applies for you.)
Let me ask you again since you ignored this, probably purposely because you don't have a good answer, but I'd like to see you justify having Pomeranz, Santana or Carrasco over Severino.
Again, because Bill James said so is not an answer.
All the stats you posted had Severino second yet you don't even claim he should be 2nd in the balloting. That's the very definition of cherry picking.
Way to read my post incorrectly.
I listed most of the Major categories (I could have done them all, it would have only made things look worse for you) for 3 pitchers:
Sale, Severino and Pomeranz. I made no argument for or against any other pitcher. Severino is clearly 2nd amongst those 3. I did that to illustrate that the gap between Severino and Sale is closer than the one between Severino and Pomeranz, who the predictor has finishing ahead of Severino. There is literally no argument for that happening, one of the many reasons the predictor is a crock.
Severino should finish 3rd behind Kluber and Sale unless he throws 2 CGSO's with one of them being a perfect game/no hitter with Sale getting bombed twice, and even then Sale would (and should) still finish 2nd, but in that event it becomes a conversation worth having.
You can check them for Carrasco and Santana as well, Severino still comes out on top (even more drastically when we look at Santana.) Carrasco is at least a conversation, albeit a pretty short one.
The predictor sucks. Oh its gotten winner right more often than not, big whoop. The Cy young winner is usually pretty clear cut in most seasons. It had Felix 7th in the year that he won (Outlier as far as being way off, but still really off) and the order in most of the seasons is pretty wonky too.
People who follow the sport closely can put together better lists with out some wacky formula that needs a major overhaul (and they have.)
Maybe you should actually read what I wrote. Getting rid of the victory bonus would put Severino over Pomeranz. You should also learn the difference between a predictor and a ranking, and maybe see this wiki article on cherry picking.
If you want to know what James uses to actually rank pitchers, here you go. http://www.billjamesonline.com/the_worlds_1_starting_pitcher/. Note that's based on career but can readily be adjusted for a single season. It's not the same formula as he uses in his cy young predictor.
I just find it comical that you're going to such lengths for this strawman argument that I'm anti-severino. I just posted a list for fun from ESPN and then I get people on this thread telling me how ESPN hates the yankees. Then when I say it's the old Bill James cy young predictor I'm told it's awful because it was wrong 7 years ago.
Nothing like a good conspiracy.
darko
Registered User
- Feb 16, 2009
- 70,269
- 7,797
Again, it's a predictor not a ranking. It's only had 1 miss in 5 years taking Price over Keuchel in 2015. How good must a closer be over the starters to finish on top?
Just checked and the answer is in 2006 the model predicted Billy Wagner over Webb.
So without cherry picking stats like other people here, how would you model it?
Closers have no business being in CY consideration. How can a guy who threw 90-100 innings be compared to someone who threw 200+?
There is no model. Watch baseball, take a peek at the stats and make your call.
The victory bonus is from winning the division.
As long as you don't mind a subjective view then sure. And it hasn't happened in a while but relievers have won CYAs (Eckersely even won mvp and cy young). Doesn't matter what us fans think - if the media thinks saves are important then a dominant reliever will be in the mix. Mariano Rivera was in the top 3 4 times in his career.
Nah can't do that, thats cherry picking
Just to add on, Britton had basically the best season ever for a closer last year, he finish 4th in a year where there really wasn't a run away winner. James supposedly infallible model is constructed to over value a closer's performance. I don't think he did this on purpose, but its the reason why guys like Colome and Kimbrel are ranked as high as they are this year, why Britton was basically a fixture in the top 5 despite really only being worthy last season, and why it had Tolleson slated at 3rd a few years ago.
Me thinks its going to be a long time before a reliever wins a Cy, that is if we ever see it happening again.
The victory bonus is stupid and he does factor wins into part of his formula as well, though that may be him assuming that there are voters out there who are dumb enough to factor that into their decision which will lead to undeserving winners *cough Porcello cough.*
Machinehead
GoAwayBrady
This model is extremely subjective.
He didn't have to give out completely arbitrary points for winning the division. He decided to.
That's exactly the same as me saying "I like Kluber better than Severino because Kluber's team won the division," which is a subjective determination.
Also when you bring up Mariano, you're talking about a closer that has like 20 more WAR than any other closer, not counting Eckersley who accrued most of his as a starter. He's an exception.
RangerBlues
Registered User
RangerBlues
Registered User
Machinehead
GoAwayBrady
Machinehead
GoAwayBrady
Betances making me sad again.
Molitor helps us with a really stupid bunt. Why do you give up an out against a pitcher that a turtle could steal on?
Molitor helps us with a really stupid bunt. Why do you give up an out against a pitcher that a turtle could steal on?
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