MLB: New PBA Proposal would Eliminate 25% of Minor League Baseball in 2021

[LadyStanley]

Minor league baseball in survival mode amid contraction, virus

Between the threat of contraction and MLB squabbling to bring back major league baseball, minor league teams are on life support, pushing out sponsorships, and laying off employees to try and cut their losses.

 

[GindyDraws]

I don't understand why your number one concern is confirming the likelihood of things actual happening, like you're getting an old school journalist double-confirmation of info from two sources, and not talking about "that's a good idea" or "that's a bad idea."

We're talking big picture, conceptual stuff. The Giants affiliating with Richmond is AN EXAMPLE of a problem. Richmond having a AA team isn't the problem. If the plan has Richmond moving up/down a level or staying in AA hasn't been revealed as of yet.

I would agree that Richmond won't go up a level without a new stadium in the near future. But you can't realign all of minor league baseball with he expectation of permanence because minor league teams are going to move around, A LOT, like they always have.

20 years ago, these cities had Triple A teams: Edmonton, Tucson, Richmond, Pawtucket, Colorado Springs, Calgary, New Orleans, Ottawa. Now they don't.
40 years ago: Wichita, Evansville, Denver, Ogden, Portland, Hawaii, Phoenix, Spokane, Springfield, Charleston. (New Orleans moved to Wichita this off-season, so they got their team back).

This is about putting a structure in place so MLB teams don't end up with their AAA guys 2000 miles away when they need someone in a hurry. It's about making leagues be more compact for travel (a 20-team PCL stretching from Tacoma to Nashville is bonkers).

But we're not being reporters on this stuff. We're commenting about what we think should happen.

The thing is... they apparently want a 20 team International League, which likely would stretch from Worcester, MA to the Great Plains (some PCL teams from Iowa to OKC would be moved, making Indianapolis no longer the western frontier of that league)... and a 10 team Pacific Coast League that would still see teams from Texas going to Tacoma. There's still going to be travel.

 

[Centrum Hockey]

The thing is... they apparently want a 20 team International League, which likely would stretch from Worcester, MA to the Great Plains (some PCL teams from Iowa to OKC would be moved, making Indianapolis no longer the western frontier of that league)... and a 10 team Pacific Coast League that would still see teams from Texas going to Tacoma. There's still going to be travel.

There has been talk recently about creating a third AAA league in the Midwest like the American Association but buffalo will likely stay in the IL. Law: Even with baseball shut down, specter of minor-league...

 

[KevFu]

This is why their general concept makes sense, but their plan doesn't.

My two major thoughts are:
1. Why not start planning for the future now, and implement this plan when MLB expands to 32? They'd have to cut 32/34 teams instead of 42, because the new teams would need affiliates.

2. When you have 32 MLB teams, you can make FOUR leagues of eight teams at every level of the minors (one West, one Central, two East for AAA/AA) and concentrate geography and drastically reduce your travel.

 

[PCSPounder]

This is why their general concept makes sense, but their plan doesn't.

My two major thoughts are:
1. Why not start planning for the future now, and implement this plan when MLB expands to 32? They'd have to cut 32/34 teams instead of 42, because the new teams would need affiliates.

Number of concrete MLB stadium plans generated by the recent fishing expedition... none.

That probably helped bring baseball to this point.

Now... imagine a new Works Progress Administration effort. That COULD change the game, but I doubt the current climate lends itself to stadiums being a part of that.

 

[KevFu]

MLB is going to expand, and soon. Manfred has talked about it dozens of times. Alignment plans have leaked. They've got Montreal working on a stadium deal, Nashville's is practically in place -- they're already trademarking names and logos -- and Portland has a pretty solid plan in place. The owners for those potential teams have all met with Manfred. And more importantly, at least 2 of those are privately financed stadium plans.

MLB owners lost 3 collusion cases in the 1990/1991. During those losses, which ended up costing them $280 million, they voted to expand and got $190 million in expansion fees.
During the 1994/95 strike that ended up costing them $600 million in revenue, they voted to expand, bringing in $260 million in expansion fees.

They're going to lose $4 to $6 billion this season.

 

[Centrum Hockey]

MLB is going to expand, and soon. Manfred has talked about it dozens of times. Alignment plans have leaked. They've got Montreal working on a stadium deal, Nashville's is practically in place -- they're already trademarking names and logos -- and Portland has a pretty solid plan in place. The owners for those potential teams have all met with Manfred. And more importantly, at least 2 of those are privately financed stadium plans.

MLB owners lost 3 collusion cases in the 1990/1991. During those losses, which ended up costing them $280 million, they voted to expand and got $190 million in expansion fees.
During the 1994/95 strike that ended up costing them $600 million in revenue, they voted to expand, bringing in $260 million in expansion fees.

They're going to lose $4 to $6 billion this season.

There was some talk of mlb giving full season clubs that will be left without a pdc offers to rejoin affiliated baseball if they improve their ballparks.

 

[KevFu]

There was some talk of mlb giving full season clubs that will be left without a pdc offers to rejoin affiliated baseball if they improve their ballparks.

Which sounds nice, but that means either
A) They like the MARKET, not the stadium, so if the stadium gets upgraded, they stay in and SOMEONE ELSE IS KICKED OUT instead.
B) They need 30 of those teams to renovate so they can add one level back into the equation (and 10 would still be out).


If they expanded first, that's 8 less teams to cut. And because each level would have to expand, and they'd likely expand by having the best 2 to 4 ballparks at each level "move up," there is a PRETEXT for shuffling affiliations and re-organizing:

- 2 joining MLB means 2 teams move up to AAA (3 if Nashville joins MLB)
- AA then has 28 and needs 4 more (or 5 if NASH)
- A+ needs 6 or 7
- A needs 8 or 9
So only 33 or 34 teams get cut from MiLB instead of 42.

 

[Flukeshot]

I won't pretend to be familiar with minor league baseball, and such I was pretty surprised to learn that some MLB teams have multiple minor league teams in the same class.

Going to a standardized 4 per MLB team makes sense.

Again as an outsider to MiLB, why do they need 4 levels? If the draft is going to be significantly reduced, can't they go down to 3 each? Add in more independent teams or leagues if the market is there for it?

 

[KevFu]

Again as an outsider to MiLB, why do they need 4 levels?

That is why the outrage over MLB's greedy trimming of the minors is humorous to me. Everyone else basically has one level of minor leagues and MLB has 6.5: AAA, AA, A+, A, Short Season, Rookie; and complex ball runs as well.

The reason MLB wants to trim the minors is because the last time they reorganized it into those six levels was in the 1960s. They didn't have radar guns, spin rates, analytics, college stats on the internet, streaming video and YouTube clips of high school and college players.

They had to cast a wide net, HARVEST a ton of potential players and see who rose to the top. Now they don't. The Astros cut down the number of teams they had because they found they got more data on their players by using video technology and skill training than using games to see what they had.

While minor league teams will be reduced, the number of players at complex ball will probably go up, as teams build up and develop their prospects in house and then send them into the minors to practice what they learn and get a feedback loop.

 

[Centrum Hockey]

 

[KevFu]

Well, that's intriguing.

I found a minor league baseball/sports business website that rated every MLB team's affiliates stadiums in 5 different categories. I think they surveyed players/fans. But it had "player development facility" grades for everyone.

I dropped those numbers in for every team, and sorted, and lo and behold, it lines up REALLY CLOSE to the teams who would be dropped from one league down, moved up to a better league, or cut from the affiliate system. The average grade (1-to-9, no one got a 10) of the cut teams was like 3.3.

The highest cut team was a 6 (Lancaster), but they were essentially left with no league if Fresno (also a 6) got demoted to the Cal League. No remaining league was west of Texas.

 

[Centrum Hockey]

Well, that's intriguing.

I found a minor league baseball/sports business website that rated every MLB team's affiliates stadiums in 5 different categories. I think they surveyed players/fans. But it had "player development facility" grades for everyone.

I dropped those numbers in for every team, and sorted, and lo and behold, it lines up REALLY CLOSE to the teams who would be dropped from one league down, moved up to a better league, or cut from the affiliate system. The average grade (1-to-9, no one got a 10) of the cut teams was like 3.3.

The highest cut team was a 6 (Lancaster), but they were essentially left with no league if Fresno (also a 6) got demoted to the Cal League. No remaining league was west of Texas.

One of team's that was mentioned that MLB want to bring into milb was the Somerset Patriots. I assume that its either the Yankees Met's or Philly's that want to affiliate with them.

 

[KevFu]

The who's affiliated with whom thing is totally unknown.

If I were spreadsheeting it up, like I said I would make 8-team western leagues in each level for the 8 western teams. But the Dodgers are probably quite happy with Oklahoma/Tulsa that have better faculties than the western stadiums.


I think a fun exercise for this board, considering all our expansion/realignment nerding out would be...

If you were making a sports league from scratch, with levels of the minors; say 3 levels there... what would you draw up? Obviously, there'd be some sport-by-sport basis. You wouldn't be "Tuscaloosa/Birmingham need a team!" for a Curling League, but generally speaking, your TV market, balance/symmetry, etc would be quite telling.

 

[Centrum Hockey]

Proposed MiLB Rework Is Part Of MLB's "One Baseball" Plans
Paywall
MLB wants to tear up the existing territorial rules for minor league teams.

 

[Big Z Man 1990]

They can do that without contracting. I've proposed several new minor league teams as part of MLB and MiLB's expansion that are located fairly close to current teams.

 

[Centrum Hockey]

MLB, Minor League Baseball Expected To Return To Negotiating Table Soon

 

[Centrum Hockey]

MLB, MILB negotiations reportedly include proposal for single-elimination tournament

 

[GindyDraws]

MLB, MILB negotiations reportedly include proposal for single-elimination tournament

That's... that's going to be ugly.

If it's anything like the US Open Cup in soccer, I expect the MLB teams to get byes until the 3rd or 4th rounds, while the Single A teams would have to play the most games if they'd like to get a chance at the championship.

 

[KevFu]

I know I'm a broken record with this... but they need to be making these plans for an expanded 32-team MLB (and subsequently 32-team AAA, AA, A+, A- minor leagues)

Someone consider how soccer tournaments do this for a second and make a formula of prelim rounds with low teams and adding in higher teams later that results in having 32 teams play a round, 16 teams play a round, 8 teams play in the quarters, 4 in the semis, 2 in the finals? I have no idea how you do it.

But with 32 teams in each league: A-, A+, AA, AAA = 128 teams. Random draw and there's 64 winners. Another random draw, 32 winners. Add 32 MLB teams and 64 teams! Random Draw and 32 teams, then 16, 8, 4 and 2 for the final.

 

[Centrum Hockey]

I know I'm a broken record with this... but they need to be making these plans for an expanded 32-team MLB (and subsequently 32-team AAA, AA, A+, A- minor leagues)

Someone consider how soccer tournaments do this for a second and make a formula of prelim rounds with low teams and adding in higher teams later that results in having 32 teams play a round, 16 teams play a round, 8 teams play in the quarters, 4 in the semis, 2 in the finals? I have no idea how you do it.

But with 32 teams in each league: A-, A+, AA, AAA = 128 teams. Random draw and there's 64 winners. Another random draw, 32 winners. Add 32 MLB teams and 64 teams! Random Draw and 32 teams, then 16, 8, 4 and 2 for the final.

In a MLB owned system they probably Could just create 8 more minor league licences without having to go through all the nonsense from the separate league office's. For example if a hypothetical Nashville MLB team wants a southern league expansion team in New Orleans they can do so easily with only the approval of the mlb offices in new york and the other 31 mlb teams.

 

[Centrum Hockey]

Why baseball's minor leagues are changing forever

 

[GindyDraws]

Considering the new "season" starts in October, that's when this insanity truly starts.

I'm not looking forward to this new world, where teams can pick and choose their affiliates that tickles their fancy.

 

[CHRDANHUTCH]

Considering the new "season" starts in October, that's when this insanity truly starts.

I'm not looking forward to this new world, where teams can pick and choose their affiliates that tickles their fancy.

depends on each team's philosophy.... same as to why you're seeing teams affiliate with a market that doesn't exactly fit their profile ie the Charlotte contract going from Carolina to Florida.... Carolina in a market like Chicago, St. Louis going to a Springfield... it's what the business side does to a fanbase, and then fans start to question why are we following any affiliated team, when you cannot really understand what the parent club was told or why they decided to go that route....

it's like fans have walked away from a specific team that they may have supported for years, only to see that team leave, either constantly or for other reasons.... it's like you have to follow the entire league because one indirect move affects that team.

 

[Big Z Man 1990]

In a MLB owned system they probably Could just create 8 more minor league licences without having to go through all the nonsense from the separate league office's. For example if a hypothetical Nashville MLB team wants a southern league expansion team in New Orleans they can do so easily with only the approval of the mlb offices in new york and the other 31 mlb teams.

If MLB is in Nashville, New Orleans will likely take Nashville's place in AAA (ideally as part of a new league, the Heartland League, that combines the PCL's American Conference teams with the IL's West Division teams).