OT: MLB Discussion Thread: Part XXIV

[darko]

It seems most scouts don’t think Kelenic is going to be anything insanely special but I don’t know how these guys make these projections so early on. He could easily be in the majors in 2-3 years. It’s funny how the Reds screwing up in the draft helped the Mets make this trade. That Jonathan India pick by then made zero sense based on their needs. If the Mets take him they likely have to put McNeil in this deal or it doesn’t happen at all possibly. India is closer to ML projections and he was bad in the minors last year

In MLB you don't draft on needs. Senzel played lot of 2nd base last season. By the time India is ready Gennett will be an unrestricted free agent.

 

[2Leetch_94]

 

[Paulie Walnutz]

Would this eliminate them for Machado?

 

[2Leetch_94]

Would this eliminate them for Machado?

No idea, either the Phillies think they can get Machado to play 3rd or they're focusing in on Harper.

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

Would this eliminate them for Machado?

No.

I think Harper has been the guy they're really keyed in on anyway.

 

[SingnBluesOnBroadway]

Would this eliminate them for Machado?

Were they ever in on Machado?

 

[Mac n Gs]

Were they ever in on Machado?

IIRC, the owner made some comments about being "a little stupid" with how much they spend in FA, so I wouldn't be shocked to see them offer Machado a huge contract this offseason and then give Mike Trout 51% ownership of the franchise when he becomes a FA.

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

Don't know if there are more pieces involved, but if the deal is what it is the Phillies did wayyyyyyyyy better in the Segura trade than the Mets did for Cano/Diaz.

 

[nyr2k2]

Don't know if there are more pieces involved, but if the deal is what it is the Phillies did wayyyyyyyyy better in the Segura trade than the Mets did for Cano/Diaz.

It's tough to compare the two. I'm not saying you're wrong, but that's mainly because I'm lukewarm at best on the Cano/Diaz deal. But, you've got a deal involving 7 players, a ton of money shifting teams, with one team getting the two best ML-level players but also looking to minimize the salary they take on ostensibly so that BVW can spend it elsewhere. The other deal is more traditional, the ML player for a decent prospect and somewhat of a salary dump in Santana (though Sanatana is still somewhat useful with his versatility, and is certainly a positive-WAR player). So it's really hard to compare them, because the Mets and Phillies went into negotiations with different goals for an end result.

I mean if the Mets took Cano's whole contract, even if they sent back Bruce they wouldn't have had to do both Kelenic and Dunn, obviously. But they didn't want his whole contract, and also wanted to dump Bruce and Swarzak. So for the Mets it was a baseball and a money deal (they can coexist), whereas for the Phillies, at least now, it looks primarily like just a straight baseball deal.

Again, I'm not saying you're wrong. But, there are reasons for why one deal looks better than the other, beyond it just being "LOLMETS!" or whatever (not saying that's your perspective). I don't like the deal the Mets made but depending on what else they do this offseason, if they make some other moves that can pay off in the next 1-3 or 4 years, then I'll be more accepting of it.

I think I get BVW's angle on all this. And, while again I don't like this move, I respect it in the sense that it's a move like you'd see teams making maybe ten years ago, before everyone became scared to trade prospects. And I understand why there's been a move to valuing prospects more and more, so I'm not throwing that out the window. But I think I understand why he's doing this, approaching things this way. And it also shows me he's not afraid to make a splash that could blow up in his face--seems like he has a plan (good or bad, who knows), and he's gonna go with it rather than just sitting back and being cautious and making "safe" moves while he tries to entrench himself.

We'll see how it turns out.

 

[SingnBluesOnBroadway]

It's tough to compare the two. I'm not saying you're wrong, but that's mainly because I'm lukewarm at best on the Cano/Diaz deal. But, you've got a deal involving 7 players, a ton of money shifting teams, with one team getting the two best ML-level players but also looking to minimize the salary they take on ostensibly so that BVW can spend it elsewhere. The other deal is more traditional, the ML player for a decent prospect and somewhat of a salary dump in Santana (though Sanatana is still somewhat useful with his versatility, and is certainly a positive-WAR player). So it's really hard to compare them, because the Mets and Phillies went into negotiations with different goals for an end result.

I mean if the Mets took Cano's whole contract, even if they sent back Bruce they wouldn't have had to do both Kelenic and Dunn, obviously. But they didn't want his whole contract, and also wanted to dump Bruce and Swarzak. So for the Mets it was a baseball and a money deal (they can coexist), whereas for the Phillies, at least now, it looks primarily like just a straight baseball deal.

Again, I'm not saying you're wrong. But, there are reasons for why one deal looks better than the other, beyond it just being "LOLMETS!" or whatever (not saying that's your perspective). I don't like the deal the Mets made but depending on what else they do this offseason, if they make some other moves that can pay off in the next 1-3 or 4 years, then I'll be more accepting of it.

I think I get BVW's angle on all this. And, while again I don't like this move, I respect it in the sense that it's a move like you'd see teams making maybe ten years ago, before everyone became scared to trade prospects. And I understand why there's been a move to valuing prospects more and more, so I'm not throwing that out the window. But I think I understand why he's doing this, approaching things this way. And it also shows me he's not afraid to make a splash that could blow up in his face--seems like he has a plan (good or bad, who knows), and he's gonna go with it rather than just sitting back and being cautious and making "safe" moves while he tries to entrench himself.

We'll see how it turns out.

Very good post. The only thing I'll add is I think we're underestimating the addition by subtraction factor in this deal.

 

[JimmyG89]

And they have to replace Bruce.

What are they replacing? Bruce was a nothing for them last season. He would be taking a spot from Nimmo or Conforto. This opens the outfield up. Get a RH OF bat to go with them and Lagares. I'm ruling out Cespedes from playing, but there is a remote chance he plays at the end of the season.

 

[broadwayblue]

I haven't really spent much time evaluating the deal for Cano...but is anyone a fan of this move for the Mets perspective? Seems like the kind of move the Rangers would have made a few years ago that never works out.

 

[Ghost of jas]

I haven't really spent much time evaluating the deal for Cano...but is anyone a fan of this move for the Mets perspective? Seems like the kind of move the Rangers would have made a few years ago that never works out.

While my anger has somewhat dissipated, I cannot talk myself into actually liking the deal. Diaz is a stud, but his value only comes into play if this team actually becomes a contender, and there’s a lot more work needed to be done to get this team to that level.

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

It's tough to compare the two. I'm not saying you're wrong, but that's mainly because I'm lukewarm at best on the Cano/Diaz deal. But, you've got a deal involving 7 players, a ton of money shifting teams, with one team getting the two best ML-level players but also looking to minimize the salary they take on ostensibly so that BVW can spend it elsewhere. The other deal is more traditional, the ML player for a decent prospect and somewhat of a salary dump in Santana (though Sanatana is still somewhat useful with his versatility, and is certainly a positive-WAR player). So it's really hard to compare them, because the Mets and Phillies went into negotiations with different goals for an end result.

I mean if the Mets took Cano's whole contract, even if they sent back Bruce they wouldn't have had to do both Kelenic and Dunn, obviously. But they didn't want his whole contract, and also wanted to dump Bruce and Swarzak. So for the Mets it was a baseball and a money deal (they can coexist), whereas for the Phillies, at least now, it looks primarily like just a straight baseball deal.

Again, I'm not saying you're wrong. But, there are reasons for why one deal looks better than the other, beyond it just being "LOLMETS!" or whatever (not saying that's your perspective). I don't like the deal the Mets made but depending on what else they do this offseason, if they make some other moves that can pay off in the next 1-3 or 4 years, then I'll be more accepting of it.

I think I get BVW's angle on all this. And, while again I don't like this move, I respect it in the sense that it's a move like you'd see teams making maybe ten years ago, before everyone became scared to trade prospects. And I understand why there's been a move to valuing prospects more and more, so I'm not throwing that out the window. But I think I understand why he's doing this, approaching things this way. And it also shows me he's not afraid to make a splash that could blow up in his face--seems like he has a plan (good or bad, who knows), and he's gonna go with it rather than just sitting back and being cautious and making "safe" moves while he tries to entrench himself.

We'll see how it turns out.

I like Segura more than Cano (and I don't like Crawford at all) plus they cleared even more salary by getting rid of Santana.

Again if whats been put out there about the deal is what it is, I feel like this was a slam dunk for Philly.

 

[nyr2k2]

I haven't really spent much time evaluating the deal for Cano...but is anyone a fan of this move for the Mets perspective? Seems like the kind of move the Rangers would have made a few years ago that never works out.

I'm neutral, leaning negative. I mean if this is basically it, if we just add a couple replacement-level guys and call it a day, f*** this move. But, if they go out, really try to make some other good moves--add Robertson or someone to the pen, find a legitimate catcher, stuff like that--then I'd be okay with that. I hate the term owed to Cano but I feel fairly confident he'll remain a productive player for at least a couple more years. I'm good losing Bruce as that opens a spot for Alonso. Swarzak was terrible.

Losing Kelenic and Dunn could hurt, or, it could not. I loved Dunn, more so than most, but he did have some question marks. Kelenic is a great prospect, but he's young and raw, and it's very possible he never develops. Or they could be stars, who knows? But, again, if the Mets make a couple more moves for guys that actually push the needle they could be very good. deGrom-Syndergaard-Wheeler-Matz, if they stayed in good health, is a potentially fantastic rotation. That alone should keep them in most games, like it often did last season.

C: Upgrade/TDA
1B: Alonso (Cano on some days)
2B: Cano (McNeil some days)
SS: Rosario
3B: Frazier/McNeil
OF: Conforto
OF: Lagares/Upgrade
OF: Nimmo

With a good bullpen and some good fortune with the rotation staying healthy, that lineup (assuming upgrades!) should be enough to compete in the NL East, and then the playoffs anything can happen.

If they don't add to the bullpen, and those "Upgrade" spots I mentioned earlier aren't addressed or are done so half-assedly, then the Cano trade was all for naught. IMO.

 

[SA16]

We should keep in mind that while Dunn/Kelenic are two of the Mets best prospects they are not exactly top 10/20 etc. prospects in the league.

 

[nyr2k2]

I like Segura more than Cano (and I don't like Crawford at all) plus they cleared even more salary by getting rid of Santana.

Again if whats been put out there about the deal is what it is, I feel like this was a slam dunk for Philly.

That's fair. I only like Segura more than Cano because of age, really (and I guess contract status). But just from a production standpoint, I'd take Cano. I can understand why you wouldn't, though. And if you don't like Crawford, then yeah, even more reason to love the deal for Philly.

 

[Ghost of jas]

I'm neutral, leaning negative. I mean if this is basically it, if we just add a couple replacement-level guys and call it a day, **** this move. But, if they go out, really try to make some other good moves--add Robertson or someone to the pen, find a legitimate catcher, stuff like that--then I'd be okay with that. I hate the term owed to Cano but I feel fairly confident he'll remain a productive player for at least a couple more years. I'm good losing Bruce as that opens a spot for Alonso. Swarzak was terrible.

Losing Kelenic and Dunn could hurt, or, it could not. I loved Dunn, more so than most, but he did have some question marks. Kelenic is a great prospect, but he's young and raw, and it's very possible he never develops. Or they could be stars, who knows? But, again, if the Mets make a couple more moves for guys that actually push the needle they could be very good. deGrom-Syndergaard-Wheeler-Matz, if they stayed in good health, is a potentially fantastic rotation. That alone should keep them in most games, like it often did last season.

C: Upgrade/TDA
1B: Alonso (Cano on some days)
2B: Cano (McNeil some days)
SS: Rosario
3B: Frazier/McNeil
OF: Conforto
OF: Lagares/Upgrade
OF: Nimmo

With a good bullpen and some good fortune with the rotation staying healthy, that lineup (assuming upgrades!) should be enough to compete in the NL East, and then the playoffs anything can happen.

If they don't add to the bullpen, and those "Upgrade" spots I mentioned earlier aren't addressed or are done so half-assedly, then the Cano trade was all for naught. IMO.

I’d like another starter and not deal Noah. It also sounds like Grandal is who they have their eyes on for catcher.

 

[SA16]

Getting Grandal would be a major success. He's really good.

 

[Bob Richards]

They can’t go into next season with Juan penciled in. They gotta try for something.

I love the guy but he always eats some massive injury and then Nimmo or Conforto have to rotate CF with trash like an Austin Jackson or something.

 

[East Coast Bias]

They can’t go into next season with Juan penciled in. They gotta try for something.

I love the guy but he always eats some massive injury and then Nimmo or Conforto have to rotate CF with trash like an Austin Jackson or something.

It’s amazing how many times they’ve gone with the “This is our year! It’s gonna be different!” Strategy.

Remarkable consistency

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

That's fair. I only like Segura more than Cano because of age, really (and I guess contract status). But just from a production standpoint, I'd take Cano. I can understand why you wouldn't, though. And if you don't like Crawford, then yeah, even more reason to love the deal for Philly.

He's much more of a sure thing IMO.

Cano has been an elite player at his position for a long time, but hes also at the age where it's not inconceivable for him to lose it over night. Theres also much more baggage there.

We should keep in mind that while Dunn/Kelenic are two of the Mets best prospects they are not exactly top 10/20 etc. prospects in the league.

Not yet for Kelenic anyway.

 

[Cassano]

We should keep in mind that while Dunn/Kelenic are two of the Mets best prospects they are not exactly top 10/20 etc. prospects in the league.

Kelenic will in a season or two. Seems like the Chapman trade tbh.

 

[East Coast Bias]

Feel a little bit better now that Heyman is posting quotes from scouts comparing Kelenic to a Darrin Erstad player.

 

[nyr2k2]

Kelenic could be great and I really didn't want to lose him. But, with the HS guys, it's so hard to really project what they'll be when/if they make it.