Speculation: Mitch Marner Mega Thread Part 6

[biotk]

It’s still July. There is tons of time here still

I hope so. My preference is for Marner to accept an offer sheet that is 4 1sts return and then the Leafs don't match.

 

[Red Piller]

No, this is wrong. The Leafs can easily have 12 - 13.5M freed up for the start of the season without needing to move salary. Simply put Horton, Hyman and Dermott on LTIR. If they matched a contract in the 4 1sts return range they would probably have to move out a contract before Hyman and Dermott came off LTIR, but they would have plenty of time to do so. I think teams know there is a very good chance that the Leafs don't match anything that has a return of 4 1sts and anything under a return of 4 1sts they wouldn't have much of a problem working the cap.

If Marner was OSed for $10,568,589 (the highest amount before 4 1sts kicks in) and Hyman and Dermott spend the first 20% of the season on LTIR (which is likely) then the Leafs would have around 230K of cap space to spare without moving anyone out - which isn't great, but teams have made due with less, and they free up more space if need be (and I mean 230K to spare over the course of the year - they would start the season with 2M to spare, but then would lose most of that after Hyman and Dermott came back).

Your can’t ltir guys until the start of the season I believe. You need to be cap compliant by puck drop.

 

[Leaf Fans]

it's amazing to see a player that just lead the team in scoring, plays a responsible 2 way game (yes as a winger) and big minutes in every situation... get ripped apart by his own fanbase...
he's only 22... what more do you guys want from this player... leading a team at his age in scoring isn't impressive enough?

Who has ripped him apart? People are saying he is worth Kucherov money. A guy that just scored 128 points. That is not ripping anyone apart.

 

[Leaf Fans]

Your can’t ltir guys until the start of the season I believe. You need to be cap compliant by puck drop.

There is summer LTIR

 

[NinjaKick]

the cap is going up every year... players will make more and more money than the previous years...
Marner just out scored both Matthews and Tavares.... he's looking at a nice payday
if I go by the internet and the media... I'm now starting to understand why the pressure in Toronto is so high

 

[PattyLafontaine]

Every non leaf fan here saying pay marner matthews money would not be saying the same **** if he was on their team. It's clear as day whats going on here.
When Marner signs, ill bet within the first few posts there will be an "overpayed" post "lolz dubas sux lolzslsjs"
But at the end of the day, leafs can and they will, everyone else can go eat a bag!

Don’t need Marner to sign to say that stuff about Dubas.

Enjoy the holdout! Hell no Leafs won’t go, hell no you bet LHWAPSY

 

[Seanaconda]

On

There is summer LTIR

Only for guys that won't play the next season . So for Horton

 

[biotk]

Your can’t ltir guys until the start of the season I believe.

You can LTIR players before the season starts.

You need to be cap compliant by puck drop.

They will be because, assuming Marner signs or they match an OS, Horton, Hyman and Dermott will be on LTIR.

 

[Seanaconda]

Who has ripped him apart? People are saying he is worth Kucherov money. A guy that just scored 128 points. That is not ripping anyone apart.

Kucherov is worth way more than what he took tho. Him taking his Tampa discount makes pretty much every contract signed lately bad .

If he wanted to force his way to ufa next year he could have been the highest paid player in the league if he felt like it.

 

[Michel Beauchamp]

Not a single fan here would rationalize THEIR team paying Marner 11.6x5, plus 4 firsts.

And, of course, no GM would either. It's just not happening. Not in a million years.

What would be the logical rationale behind paying $11.6M + 4 firsts for Marner ?

A good number of teams would however pay $11.6M for Marner.

 

[flying v 604]

Why is Walhstom looking excellent while Lil is lagging? He's had the far tougher comp the past 2 seasons in the AHL. Regardless it's not nearly enough.

The fact that Lily hasn't had a shot with the leafs tells you all you need to know. He was way overhyped at the start of his draft year, and once scouts honed in on him, red flags were seen. Look at guys like Hughes, Dhalin, both turned pro in their 1st season. Lily wasn't held back because he was on a stacked club, the leafs biggest need has always been an RHD. He just isn't very good.

 

[Michel Beauchamp]

Take away the one bad season because of the contract nylander and marner are very close
Marner is not worth 4 million more maybe 2
9×6 is probably fair

Forget the numbers.

Which of the two would you want in a critical situation ?

 

[biotk]

What would be the logical rationale behind paying $11.6M + 4 firsts for Marner ?

A good number of teams would however pay $11.6M for Marner.

They are free to trade for him.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

What would be the logical rationale behind paying $11.6M + 4 firsts for Marner ?

A good number of teams would however pay $11.6M for Marner.

Well, a very close comparable just signed for 8.5x5
His team refused to even offer him that until there was an offer sheet.

No other team would be interested in dramatically overpaying Marner due to Dubas giving Matthews a horrible contract.

 

[Michel Beauchamp]

And yet two weeks after every team has had the opportunity.....

They do have until Dec 1st, don't they ?

Not that he will receive one.

 

[NinjaKick]

They are free to trade for him.

so the Leafs lose both Kadri and their leading point producer in one offseason? that's an interesting strategy

 

[Dekes For Days]

The fact that Lily hasn't had a shot with the leafs tells you all you need to know. He was way overhyped at the start of his draft year, and once scouts honed in on him, red flags were seen. Look at guys like Hughes, Dhalin, both turned pro in their 1st season. Lily wasn't held back because he was on a stacked club, the leafs biggest need has always been an RHD. He just isn't very good.

Liligren was 19 at the start of last year, and has played great in the AHL at a younger age than most people in that league. Leafs don't rush prospects, not to mention the expansion draft implications.

Liligren is a top prospect.

 

[TheKrebsCycle]

The fact that Lily hasn't had a shot with the leafs tells you all you need to know. He was way overhyped at the start of his draft year, and once scouts honed in on him, red flags were seen. Look at guys like Hughes, Dhalin, both turned pro in their 1st season. Lily wasn't held back because he was on a stacked club, the leafs biggest need has always been an RHD. He just isn't very good.

Hughes played college hockey this past season. Are you really using a 5 game sample to establish superiority? Back to the point. Lil was the best Marlie dman by the time the season ended. Big Leaps made defensively. What has wahlstrom done to increase his stock? Looks like a very uneven college season.

 

[biotk]

so the Leafs lose both Kadri and their leading point producer in one offseason? that's an interesting strategy

I am glad you are so concerned about the Leafs' wellbeing. This might come as a shock to you but when you trade a player you are not just giving the player away - you get a return - hence the name: trade.

Let me give you an example: The Leafs trade Kadri and Rosen to Colorado. Oh no! How will the team recover? Well they got Barrie and Kerfoot back. And the management of both teams felt that the trade benefitted each.

 

[biotk]

If people saw him and Matthews play on any consistent basis, then they would realize very fast that Matthews is the engine of the team, and has been for 3 years.

The only important thing is that Leafs' management understand this.

 

[Leaf Fans]

On

Only for guys that won't play the next season . So for Horton

or who won't start the season plus they have a 10% cushion in the summer.

 

[Dekes For Days]

I don't know how you can determine that...

Very easily, either through clearly false and uninformed opinions, or through the same faces showing up only when there is negativity to spread and never in a positive circumstance.

personally... I've seen Marner improve each year and this past season he was the Leafs best forward... to me, his stats and the eye test prove it... and the good news is.. I don't think he's going anywhere and if I'm a Marner fan... I think that, he's only 22... and he's just going to get even better as he enters his prime

Even if all of this was true, that still wouldn't make Marner's contract worth more, because contract valuation is based on a lot of stuff that isn't just one out-of-context season and hopes and dreams.

 

[Leaf Fans]

Kucherov is worth way more than what he took tho. Him taking his Tampa discount makes pretty much every contract signed lately bad .

If he wanted to force his way to ufa next year he could have been the highest paid player in the league if he felt like it.

Sure, but he is the bench mark for the scoring wingers of the league.

 

[NinjaKick]

Leafs management know a lot more about Tavares, Matthews and Marner than you do. They value the other two far more than Marner.

why do they value Matthews and Tavares more when Marner just lead the team in scoring? and he did it mostly vs top line competition... to me that's extremely impressive... I'm not sure what you're expecting out of Marner?

 

[TheKrebsCycle]

why do they value Matthews and Tavares more when Marner just lead the team in scoring? and he did it mostly vs top line competition... to me that's extremely impressive... I'm not sure what you're expecting out of Marner?

Big difference in goal scoring ability would be one differentiator. Marner and Tavares definately compliment one another while matthews flew more lone wolf without Nylander riding shot gun.