Speculation: Mitch Marner Mega Thread Part 6

[X66]

This is coming from someone that loves Marner and knows he'll be a leaf for a long time.

John Tavares was the best player on that line.

Getting to see Tavares up close, he's one of the best centers I've seen.

He'd have a legit chance at cracking 60 goals in his younger days with better players.

 

[ToDavid]

Recycling the same old crap on the mainboard after they were debunked on the leafs board..I see. Toews had more goals than Kane in his ELC. What happen there? Paid the same. Stamkos had comparably more goals than Kutcherov before their last contracts. Why is kutch paid more?

You're completely throwing context out the window. The goal scoring difference between Toews/Stamkos and Kane/Kucherov was not even close to the goal scoring difference between Marner and Matthews. Over their ELCs Toews averaged 31g/82gp to Kane's 26g/82gp. Similarly, Stamkos and Kucherov scored at a very similar rate in the years leading up to their contracts (in the three years leading up to their contracts, Stamkos at 44g/82gp and Kucherov at 39g/82gp), while Kucherov absolutely ran away with points, outproducing Stamkos by nearly 20 points per 82 games.

Over their ELCs Matthews has averaged 43g/82gp to Marner's 23g/82gp while also outproducing Marner in points on a per game basis. Even in Marner's breakout season, he only outpaced him 1.15p/gp to 1.07p/gp.

 

[Confucius]

Probably because no other team can get him for just 11.6, and would have to pay 11.6 + 4 firsts, as the poster you quoted stated.

And that my friend is the difference between ufa and rfa. a ufa Marner may be worth 11.6 an rfa marner is not worth 10.5

 

[ToDavid]

Love coming to the mainboards to see so called leaf fans who are really Nylander fan clubbers slam Marner by any hook or crook. Sad really.

You're confusing thinking he's not worth $12m with "slamming" him. I can guarantee you everyone here thinks Marner is a phenomenal player and wants him back on the team next year. We could ask the same of you, why is a so called Leaf fan so interested in management handing out a brutal contract? Are you going to be happy when they have to trade someone like Johnsson or Kapanen?

The fact that you brought up Nylander when no one has even mentioned him makes it pretty obvious you have your own axe to grind here.

 

[sd1976]

And there is the disconnect....because Marner and his agent will always say "Matthews didn't...and hasn't. Why should I?

Then Dubas will mention AM being a C and goals, and Marner's agent will come back with Marner always being healthy and actual points, not shoulda/coulda/woulda like Matthews the last 2 years.

And now we know what a deal hasn't been done yet. And fwiw, I do think Marner wants to stay a Leaf. He just wants Mgt to show to HIM, that they value him like JT and Matthews. And if they are offering 9-10 million, then that value isn't there.

And then Dubas will say Marner plays with Tavares and Matthews plays with some combo of Kapanen and Johnsson and Brown. And then Marner's agent will say, um...ahhh… good point.

 

[supsens]

And then Dubas will say Marner plays with Tavares and Matthews plays with some combo of Kapanen and Johnsson and Brown. And then Marner's agent will say, um...ahhh… good point.

Or his agent will say yes he has more responsibility. Meaning he has a higher value to your team, unless the third and fourth liners all deserve huge raises because line mates ‘suck’

Many people said when JT signed that Mathews and Marner would be expecting that type of money if they improve and become his equal. It’s how the NHL has operated for years

 

[Confucius]

Or his agent will say yes he has more responsibility. Meaning he has a higher value to your team, unless the third and fourth liners all deserve huge raises because line mates ‘suck’

Many people said when JT signed that Mathews and Marner would be expecting that type of money if they improve and become his equal. It’s how the NHL has operated for years

The 3 are not the same. One was a ufa, the other 2 are rfa. Tavares could command more than the other 2

 

[supsens]

You're completely throwing context out the window. The goal scoring difference between Toews/Stamkos and Kane/Kucherov was not even close to the goal scoring difference between Marner and Matthews. Over their ELCs Toews averaged 31g/82gp to Kane's 26g/82gp. Similarly, Stamkos and Kucherov scored at a very similar rate in the years leading up to their contracts (in the three years leading up to their contracts, Stamkos at 44g/82gp and Kucherov at 39g/82gp), while Kucherov absolutely ran away with points, outproducing Stamkos by nearly 20 points per 82 games.

Over their ELCs Matthews has averaged 43g/82gp to Marner's 23g/82gp while also outproducing Marner in points on a per game basis. Even in Marner's breakout season, he only outpaced him 1.15p/gp to 1.07p/gp.

One improved a lot more than the other over their ELC’s, before JT came along it happened. Over the second half of the ELC contract Marner has produced at a higher rate and been way better at not getting scored on.
I like how everyone has to include the first year of play in order to try to show how much better Mathews is. Rookies get better and Marner got better faster than Mathews did.
Let’s pretend assists don’t matter, Mcdavid was the best goal scorer in history that’s why he got the highest contract...nope

 

[supsens]

The 3 are not the same. One was a ufa, the other 2 are rfa. Tavares could command more than the other 2

Well the days of RFA’s not getting paid are gone. And mathews commanded more than JT so there is that.
Look how Duchene was handled, you want to play for us you take a discount, a real discount not some fake Second highest caphit in the NHL discount. Because we have ‘our guys’ to pay and your the hired help

 

[Einzakin]

This is coming from someone that loves Marner and knows he'll be a leaf for a long time.

John Tavares was the best player on that line.

Getting to see Tavares up close, he's one of the best centers I've seen.

He'd have a legit chance at cracking 60 goals in his younger days with better players.

As a huge Leaf fan I completely disagree. Marner drove that line pretty clearly IMO. He had a crazy number of 1st assists and lead the leafs in points. Alot of JTs goals were in around the net from plays Marner setup. I don't think Marner desreves a dime over 10 but he was the best player for us last year.

 

[Confucius]

Well the days of RFA’s not getting paid are gone. And mathews commanded more than JT so there is that.
Look how Duchene was handled, you want to play for us you take a discount, a real discount not some fake Second highest caphit in the NHL discount. Because we have ‘our guys’ to pay and your the hired help

Tavares took a discount there was talk he was offered 13. Mathews is more valuable than JT. If Leafs had to choose 1 I think they'd take mathews. Of the three Marner would be the least coveted. He is probably worth 10 any less he gave a discount

 

[Notsince67]

You're completely throwing context out the window. The goal scoring difference between Toews/Stamkos and Kane/Kucherov was not even close to the goal scoring difference between Marner and Matthews. Over their ELCs Toews averaged 31g/82gp to Kane's 26g/82gp. Similarly, Stamkos and Kucherov scored at a very similar rate in the years leading up to their contracts (in the three years leading up to their contracts, Stamkos at 44g/82gp and Kucherov at 39g/82gp), while Kucherov absolutely ran away with points, outproducing Stamkos by nearly 20 points per 82 games.

Over their ELCs Matthews has averaged 43g/82gp to Marner's 23g/82gp while also outproducing Marner in points on a per game basis. Even in Marner's breakout season, he only outpaced him 1.15p/gp to 1.07p/gp.

Is it about goals or is it about position? What is the distribution of points to goals? I am not misleading anything.
People like yourself make ambiguous claims. Display the goal and point differential if you like. Show the distributions that mirror an exact convergence of Center and winger on 2 teams where the outcome yielded zero difference in one and higher winger on the other. The posts seem to be ever moving.
To be clear, Matthews had an 11 goal difference from Marner last season and fell short 21 points. I'm waiting

 

[supsens]

Tavares took a discount there was talk he was offered 13. Mathews is more valuable than JT. If Leafs had to choose 1 I think they'd take mathews. Of the three Marner would be the least coveted. He is probably worth 10 any less he gave a discount

It’s not a discount when your the second highest paid guy in the NHL and your not even close to the second best player, Kuch took a discount Tyler Seguin took a discount Mark stone took a discount, all those guys came in under 10
JT demanded to blow your pay structure out of the water.
I doubt JT ever out produces Marner going forward, your GM came out of the gates pulled some huge rookie mistake and now his pride is in the way of fixing it because the other GM’s made fun of his contracts.

 

[Confucius]

It’s not a discount when your the second highest paid guy in the NHL and your not even close to the second best player, Kuch took a discount Tyler Seguin took a discount Mark stone took a discount, all those guys came in under 10
JT demanded to blow your pay structure out of the water.
I doubt JT ever out produces Marner going forward, your GM came out of the gates pulled some huge rookie mistake and now his pride is in the way of fixing it because the other GM’s made fun of his contracts.

There is more than just points to a game, JT is the better player today. I think JT at 11 is way better than Marner at 11.6. I have no issue with what JT got. Just like I'd have no issue paying Kucherov 12. Some gave bigger discounts than others. Some dont realize they are RFA's. Some do, Aho for example

 

[CupsOverCash]

It’s not a discount when your the second highest paid guy in the NHL and your not even close to the second best player, Kuch took a discount Tyler Seguin took a discount Mark stone took a discount, all those guys came in under 10
JT demanded to blow your pay structure out of the water.
I doubt JT ever out produces Marner going forward, your GM came out of the gates pulled some huge rookie mistake and now his pride is in the way of fixing it because the other GM’s made fun of his contracts.

I point at Tavares and Mathews as why this isnt done. Both are overpaid by a mil or two in their current situations. Mathews should probably be around 9. Tavares while he is making appropriate money, the Leafs should have opted not to give him 11. Way too much for two players when you still have another player who you could argue is just as valuable as they are. Not very well managed in my opinion.

 

[Mark Stones Spleen]

For the first 3/4 of the season it was easily Marner driving the line and he was easily the overall best player on the team, just like he was the previous playoffs and the last 1/4 of the previous season. It sucks to say for our cap but he deserves as much as Matthews, but neither deserve 11.6 really.

This post makes sense.