News: Mitch Marner Contract Mega-Thread (mod warning post 990)

[TheBeastCoast]

Because we're all witnessing TOR finally becoming a dynasty, or more costly blunders for another 50 years of heartbreak... or something in between.

I get the sense the kids aren't too happy in Toronto. From Nylander's holdout, to Matthews fake home team discount, but instead bent Dubas over.... and now with the recent thing I read about Marner to regards Matthews contract. Things seem rocky over there.

Baseless speculation everyone!! I think Larkin hates puppies. Prove me wrong.

 

[Dotter]

Marner could get a career ending injury tomorrow and never play again, so of course there is a chance he may not be in Toronto next season.

However, the chances of him not being a Leaf next season is so incredibly slim the fact it's brought up by someone in a serious manner is utterly ridiculous.

I honestly think there's a better chance he accepts an offersheet over a random career ending injury. But I do think he signs, but clearly he has the leverage since TOR also know he could sign a HUGE offersheet if they don't act swiftly. Regardless, Boi is getting paid!

 

[thefutures]

I don't see how he can be paid a penny less than Matthews. Marner is just as important to their teams success. I'm expecting a Kane/Toews situation with identical contracts.

A contract the same length as AM would surprise me, i think the leafs want to avoid ever having to sign these two as ufas in the same year. I think he will get longer term and a little less or the same aav

 

[TheBeastCoast]

I highly doubt Marner accepts an offer sheet or plays anywhere but Toronto next season. It'll just cost them, probably around 10.5-11.5 for 5 years.

The only caveat being if the Leafs continue to lowball Marner, they could piss him off and force him to do something drastic.

A 5 year deal is 100% not going to be an option for Marner. Like pick any other length other then 5 year...and it is more realistic.

 

[Snowman]

A 5 year deal is 100% not going to be an option for Marner. Like pick any other length other then 5 year...and it is more realistic.

I don't know. I think that is the new style contract we're going to see. Players keep the term as short as possible and then get to renegotiate when they are at their peak. I can't see any reason for Marner to go longer, unless the Leafs want to raise the AAV.

Marner may like a 4 year deal, but the Leafs wouldn't.

 

[TheBeastCoast]

I don't know. I think that is the new style contract we're going to see. Players keep the term as short as possible and then get to renegotiate when they are at their peak. I can't see any reason for Marner to go longer, unless the Leafs want to raise the AAV.

Marner may like a 4 year deal, but the Leafs wouldn't.

The Leafs would probably would be fine with any term shorter or longer then 5 years. There is no scenario where giving Marner 5 years and taking Marner,Nylander and Matthews to free agency all at the same time is going to happen. 6 years is the most realistic term for Marner in my opinion.

 

[Red Piller]

Canada is very different than the US.

We don't believe in subsidizing stadiums for billionaires and I doubt there would be much political support to drop the tax burden on a specific type of athlete.

We give money to corporations all the time.......

 

[Liferleafer]

We give money to corporations all the time.......

usually ones that the Government have their claws in.

 

[780il]

Suppose Mitch Marner makes it to July 1 without a contract. Suppose the Devils offer him a deal worth 11-11.75 million a season. Suppose he accepts. This would be a compensation of 4 first round picks I believe.

Would the Leafs rather ...

1. Match it

2. Take the picks

3. Work out a deal with NJ so NJ can keep 1 or 2 of those picks while taking on Zaitsev as well as Hornton/Marleau

They would match easily

The other 2 aren't even options they consider lol

 

[JeremyTB]

I will make a bet with any single person who wants to claim Marner will not be a Leaf next season.

He will be a leaf next season but it will be pricey. Teams will make an offer just to get the Leafs to match it. And Leaf fans are naive if they think Marner will just no I don't accept that offer and will take less with the Leafs. Leafs will have to match to keep him. That's why they should be doing whatever it takes to get him signed now but apparently Marner doesn't want to negotiate during the season.

 

[Grimmas]

He will be a leaf next season but it will be pricey. Teams will make an offer just to get the Leafs to match it. And Leaf fans are naive if they think Marner will just no I don't accept that offer and will take less with the Leafs. Leafs will have to match to keep him. That's why they should be doing whatever it takes to get him signed now but apparently Marner doesn't want to negotiate during the season.

He doesn't have to sign during the season, just before July 1st. The agent said they were close to a deal, so I don't see why it even gets to a time when offer sheets are possible.

 

[Nervousbreakdown]

I don't see how he can be paid a penny less than Matthews. Marner is just as important to their teams success. I'm expecting a Kane/Toews situation with identical contracts.

Yeah thats not true at all. Matthews is a far better player, plays a more important position and drives play way more significantly. The Leafs shouldn't go above 8.5 on an 8 year deal. I'm not saying they won't I'm just saying they shouldn't and if his agent tries to go the offer sheet route the leafs should take the 4 first round picks and call it a cost of playing within a cap structure.

 

[jrgtml67]

Now sportsnet has Brayden Point possibly offersheeted..so I guess Rantanen is next..what a joke

 

[jrgtml67]

Yeah thats not true at all. Matthews is a far better player, plays a more important position and drives play way more significantly. The Leafs shouldn't go above 8.5 on an 8 year deal. I'm not saying they won't I'm just saying they shouldn't and if his agent tries to go the offer sheet route the leafs should take the 4 first round picks and call it a cost of playing within a cap structure.

Only part you got right is that center is far harder and technically scoring is harder than helpers..but Marner back checks harder, blocks shots. Hes goin to be the first leaf since gilmour to hit over 90pts. I agree Matthew's deserves 11.6 but Marner will get 10mill minimum unless he signs a 3yr

 

[Nervousbreakdown]

Only part you got right is that center is far harder and technically scoring is harder than helpers..but Marner back checks harder, blocks shots. Hes goin to be the first leaf since gilmour to hit over 90pts. I agree Matthew's deserves 11.6 but Marner will get 10mill minimum unless he signs a 3yr

Matthews is better defensively and he makes a lot of it look effortless. As much as I value marner's roll on the team this massive season is probably due mostly to having Tavares on his line. Possession wise his numbers away from Tavares arent good though its a small sample size without. The issue isn't that marner is bad because he really is great but a 10 mil per year deal, even on an 8 year contract would be a massive overpayment. Leafs should be aiming for 8.5 even if the term is the same as matthews though it would be a good idea to lock him up for 6 just to stagger their negotiations a bit.

 

[FrozenJagrt]

Hes goin to be the first leaf since gilmour to hit over 90pts.

Sundin

 

[jrgtml67]

Sundin

Either way that's special

 

[FrozenJagrt]

Either way that's special

Sure is. I don't really care how much he makes so long as a deal gets done. The kid is special.

 

[jrgtml67]

Sure is. I don't really care how much he makes so long as a deal gets done. The kid is special.

It will and many will say dubas over paid which is stupid. Nylander got overpaid by what 300 400k Matthew's was bang on. A guy who has most 5v5 goals with ovi and laine McDavid isnt in that top 3. Matthew's is on his tail..he missed a month and his current linemates haven't been consistent enough for him. Nylander missing a 3rd of the yr is the culprit there. I feel like if he builds on his last 2 games he will be with matty in a couple weeks.

 

[rubikscube]

Yeah thats not true at all. Matthews is a far better player, plays a more important position and drives play way more significantly. The Leafs shouldn't go above 8.5 on an 8 year deal. I'm not saying they won't I'm just saying they shouldn't and if his agent tries to go the offer sheet route the leafs should take the 4 first round picks and call it a cost of playing within a cap structure.

There's not a snowballs chance in hell he gets anything close to this. If he's signing an 8 year it's closer to 11.5 for sure.

 

[NotOpie]

I've said it elsewhere, I believe that at least one, or maybe two of Brown, Johnsson, and/or Kapanen are gone. I just don't see the salary structure working effectively otherwise. There are 8 solid forwards without two of the above. I don't see Marleau waiving his NMC and despite contentions otherwise, Zaitsev's contract will be extremely hard to move. The Phaneuf and Bickell comparisons aren't really germane. Dion, despite declining, was still considered a Top 4 defender with a cannon of a shot. Bickell only had 1 year left on his deal. Zaitsev has 5 more after this season. I'm not saying it's impossible, but the piper will have to be paid. I'm not so sure the answer isn't sending him down to the Marlies. Wouldn't that save at least $1 million?

Even with all of that said, moving Brown and/or one of Johnsson and Kapanen, should free up enough cap space to pay a capable defender and a reclamation project for the 3rd line (or just elevate Bracco). Things will be tight and there will be holes, but all teams struggle through that, even champions.

 

[TheDoldrums]

I've said it elsewhere, I believe that at least one, or maybe two of Brown, Johnsson, and/or Kapanen are gone. I just don't see the salary structure working effectively otherwise. There are 8 solid forwards without two of the above. I don't see Marleau waiving his NMC and despite contentions otherwise, Zaitsev's contract will be extremely hard to move. The Phaneuf and Bickell comparisons aren't really germane. Dion, despite declining, was still considered a Top 4 defender with a cannon of a shot. Bickell only had 1 year left on his deal. Zaitsev has 5 more after this season. I'm not saying it's impossible, but the piper will have to be paid. I'm not so sure the answer isn't sending him down to the Marlies. Wouldn't that save at least $1 million?

Even with all of that said, moving Brown and/or one of Johnsson and Kapanen, should free up enough cap space to pay a capable defender and a reclamation project for the 3rd line (or just elevate Bracco). Things will be tight and there will be holes, but all teams struggle through that, even champions.

Brown is absolutely gone for a pick in the summer. It's a foregone conclusion.

Zaitsev plays in the top 4 on a good team. It's possible some teams still see him as a potential 2nd pair option. All it takes is one and I'm sure Dubas will be trying to find that GM.

 

[WHISTLERNATE]

To me, he has to get more than 10.1/year. That is what any team in the league can offer and only forfeit 2x 1st, 2nd, 3rd. Why would he take less that that? 20+ teams would offer that up if this drags on. Not saying an offer sheet will happen, but Marner and his agent know what is out there. Nylander and Matthews didn't take any type of discount, why on earth would Marner?

6 yr/10.5 is my guess.

 

[WHISTLERNATE]

Brown is absolutely gone for a pick in the summer. It's a foregone conclusion.

Zaitsev plays in the top 4 on a good team. It's possible some teams still see him as a potential 2nd pair option. All it takes is one and I'm sure Dubas will be trying to find that GM.

I agree with you that Brown will be gone, and likely Zaitsev with a + for picks/prospects. Hainsey and Gardiner will be gone as well. The challenge will be replacing 3 D and a forward with near league minimum $. It is not devastating, but if Dubas brings back a team that is as good as this years, I will be very impressed.

 

[Liferleafer]

If Marner puts up 5 or more points tonight, i will start a gofundme page to get whatever money he wants.