News: Mitch Marner Contract Mega-Thread (mod warning post 990)

[powerstuck]

Like mentioned.

Happy to see the Rangers offersheet for 11m.

We'll take their four 1sts.

I've got a news flash for you...Marner won't be OS at 11M because Toronto will sign him for 11-11.5M,

 

[GBLeaf]

I've got a news flash for you...Marner won't be OS at 11M because Toronto will sign him for 11-11.5M,

Cheers, Oracle.

 

[TOGuy14]

On the topic of the "tax advantage" - maybe Toronto/Canada should enact policies that NHL hockey players pay no income tax, but NHL hockey revenues are just taxed at a high enough rate to offset that?

Would essentially be a way of "circumventing" the cap, where the teams take the tax burden instead of the players...

Canada is very different than the US.

We don't believe in subsidizing stadiums for billionaires and I doubt there would be much political support to drop the tax burden on a specific type of athlete.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Canada is very different than the US.

We don't believe in subsidizing stadiums for billionaires and I doubt there would be much political support to drop the tax burden on a specific type of athlete.

You seem to be misunderstanding. I'll restate this again.

The players would still be paying income tax, just indirectly, as they would likely sign for less and their take home pay would remain roughly unchanged. Their tax contributions would be met through the revenue gains from increased taxes on NHL clubs.

Additionally, this sort of arrangement would give the local NHL teams a cap advantage over the rest of the league, which helps them win more games and cups. You could easily argue it would be a net positive for the economy. And if playoff appearances increased, the revenue generated from the higher tax rates on NHL clubs would probably result in more government revenues than were given up with the tax break given to the players.

So let's say Marner was going to sign a $10M contract with the leafs because he's looking to take home $5M after taxes. Maybe that means he would settle for 8M in Tampa. But if he were to pay no income tax, he would settle for a $5M cap hit in Toronto.

If we now assume an avg tax liability of 40% for each player, and a team payroll of $80M, you need to come up with ~$32M of tax revenue from NHL clubs to offset the tax breaks to the players. Last year, the Leafs posted $232M revenue and $94M in operating income (i.e. taxable). Let's say that in this "no income tax" scenario, the Maple Leafs spend 55 million in player payroll (which would equate to a 92 million dollar cap hit in current conditions). That alone would increase their taxable income by 20 million.

So now they've got a taxable income of 114 million. To effectively offset $32M in player tax breaks, you'd need add about an incremental tax rate of ~25%, assuming no growth in top line revenue from deep playoff runs and championships (which there should be if you're able to effectively spend well beyond the cap).

The teams would probably be worse off from a profit perspective in the short term, but only if they decide to spend beyond the "effective" cap (meaning they spend beyond ~60% of the cap). If their players' take home pay remains unchanged, the team's P&L should as well.

Make sense?

 

[Legion34]

On the topic of the "tax advantage" - maybe Toronto/Canada should enact policies that NHL hockey players pay no income tax, but NHL hockey revenues are just taxed at a high enough rate to offset that?

Would essentially be a way of "circumventing" the cap, where the teams take the tax burden instead of the players...

Why do people think that you would have change tax laws? The cap isn’t. A real thing. People who have terminated contracts and aren’t getting paid are still on the cap.
They could do whatever they wanted they could make a million dollars Be worth a penny and vice versa.

Wouldnt the easiest thing be just to have cap hit worth different things in different cities? Like an exchange rate?

Ie. a 10’millon dollar contract could be worth a 12 cap hit in tax free states. The money is the same. The cap hit could change in a trade

People all over the world are talking about made up constructs on peices of plastic and glass. I’m pretty sure they could figure it out.

 

[Halla]

Suppose Mitch Marner makes it to July 1 without a contract. Suppose the Devils offer him a deal worth 11-11.75 million a season. Suppose he accepts. This would be a compensation of 4 first round picks I believe.

Would the Leafs rather ...

1. Match it

2. Take the picks

3. Work out a deal with NJ so NJ can keep 1 or 2 of those picks while taking on Zaitsev as well as Hornton/Marleau

id take the picks if its the devils.

2019 - currently 2nd overall
2018 - 17th
2017 - 1st
2016 - 12th
2015 - 6th


one of the few teams id be willing for the leafs to roll the dice on not matching.
now they have oodles of cap space and 8 1st rd picks over the next 4 seasons to play with

 

[Halla]

Take the picks

Offer sheet Laine with Marner's money

not a bad idea. take the 4 firsts, then offersheet Laine at 10 mil (1st,1st,2nd,3rd) and if that doesnt work Connor at 8 mil (1st,2nd,3rd) heck, even throw 7.5 at trouba, with marner not needing a big deal and marleau up in a year they will have lots of cap space

 

[Halla]

From New Jersey? They would have to seriously consider those picks + going after a free agent imo.

I would love to be on here if the leafs got the devils four 1st rd picks for marner, then turned around and signed Karlssson to 11.5x7

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Why do people think that you would have change tax laws? The cap isn’t. A real thing. People who have terminated contracts and aren’t getting paid are still on the cap.
They could do whatever they wanted they could make a million dollars Be worth a penny and vice versa.

Wouldnt the easiest thing be just to have cap hit worth different things in different cities? Like an exchange rate?

Ie. a 10’millon dollar contract could be worth a 12 cap hit in tax free states. The money is the same. The cap hit could change in a trade

People all over the world are talking about made up constructs on peices of plastic and glass. I’m pretty sure they could figure it out.

And maybe normalize for quality of life? Weather? School system, healthcare system, etc...

 

[Legion34]

And maybe normalize for quality of life? Weather? School system, healthcare system, etc...

If they ever decide to make a school cap? Sure?

The NHL decided to put artificial restrictions on the free market. They developed a system that has holes. They have decided they want to stop that. Because they already have decided circumvention will be punished.

They could make the artificial system fair.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

If they ever decide to make a school cap? Sure?

The NHL decided to put artificial restrictions on the free market. They developed a system that has holes. They have decided they want to stop that. Because they already have decided circumvention will be punished.

They could make the artificial system fair.

Who decides what is fair? Tax rates aren't the only consideration . . . if they made it fair wouldn't they have to adjust for the fact that a significant proportion of players grew up in Ontario and are willing to take a discount to play for their hometown team? Like we saw with Tavares?

 

[vanarchy]

I would love to be on here if the leafs got the devils four 1st rd picks for marner, then turned around and signed Karlssson to 11.5x7

That's what I'm saying. This years free agent crop ain't too shabby at all. If a team was going to attempt that any year it would be this one. On top of a Karlsson/Stone etc you would have 4 1sts to either draft and utilize ELC years or use as trade chips.

 

[justafan22]

That's what I'm saying. This years free agent crop ain't too shabby at all. If a team was going to attempt that any year it would be this one. On top of a Karlsson/Stone etc you would have 4 1sts to either draft and utilize ELC years or use as trade chips.

Bingo. If Marner won't take anything under 10 million on a long term deal, I tell him to shop for offer sheets elsewhere

 

[Grimmas]

I will make a bet with any single person who wants to claim Marner will not be a Leaf next season.

 

[rubikscube]

I don't see how he can be paid a penny less than Matthews. Marner is just as important to their teams success. I'm expecting a Kane/Toews situation with identical contracts.

 

[Tit]

I doubt he signs one at all.
He might use one as leverage if anything is offered, but he's not signing anything.

 

[Legion34]

Who decides what is fair? Tax rates aren't the only consideration . . . if they made it fair wouldn't they have to adjust for the fact that a significant proportion of players grew up in Ontario and are willing to take a discount to play for their hometown team? Like we saw with Tavares?

The NHL. When they decided that they needed to put a salary cap in. They didn’t decide to put in a homegrown cap where you can only have X ontario players. And YES that actually happens in the CFL. The NHL can choose to artificially stop whatever it wants. But it Chose to make a salary cap. If you are doing that. Make it fair. They can. The salary cap is totally made up in terms of how it gets applied.

There is a salary cap. The NHL allows Tampa etc to offer the same amount of net income with less salary cap and gross pay.

Simple stamkos can sign for 8.5 million. That would be the same amount of money wherever he goes. BUT that cap hit could be 12 in Tampa. 11 in Toronto. 9 Montreal wherever.

 

[Snowman]

I highly doubt Marner accepts an offer sheet or plays anywhere but Toronto next season. It'll just cost them, probably around 10.5-11.5 for 5 years.

The only caveat being if the Leafs continue to lowball Marner, they could piss him off and force him to do something drastic.

 

[93gilmour93]

I will make a bet with any single person who wants to claim Marner will not be a Leaf next season.

That would be like going all in during poker with a 2♤ 7♡

 

[Grimmas]

That would be like going all in during poker with a 2♤ 7♡

I know, but according to this thread a lot of people think he's walking out the door to the first offer sheet.

 

[Leafs87]

How come no other RFA has a contract talk like this? There’s like 5 huge ticket RFAs

 

[Michoulicious]

I will make a bet with any single person who wants to claim Marner will not be a Leaf next season.

I think he will be a Leafs, and that he will get paid 11 - 11,6 millions per for 5 years.

 

[Dotter]

I know, but according to this thread a lot of people think he's walking out the door to the first offer sheet.

Can you completely rule it out? Do you think TOR has a little urgency in wanting to get this done sooner rather than the final minutes?

 

[Grimmas]

Can you completely rule it out? Do you think TOR has a little urgency in wanting to get this done sooner rather than the final minutes?

Marner could get a career ending injury tomorrow and never play again, so of course there is a chance he may not be in Toronto next season.

However, the chances of him not being a Leaf next season is so incredibly slim the fact it's brought up by someone in a serious manner is utterly ridiculous.

 

[Dotter]

How come no other RFA has a contract talk like this? There’s like 5 huge ticket RFAs

Because we're all witnessing TOR finally becoming a dynasty, or more costly blunders for another 50 years of heartbreak... or something in between.

I get the sense the kids aren't too happy in Toronto. From Nylander's holdout, to Matthews fake home team discount, but instead bent Dubas over.... and now with the recent thing I read about Marner to regards Matthews contract. Things seem rocky over there.