Miscellaneous NHL Talk V10.0 - 2018/19 Regular Season

[Garbage Goal]

For a player like McDavid, I'd trade anything short of an entire core for him. It's a silly hypothetical because that situation will never happen, but I'd say Provorov+Frost+ is just short of a core. However, there's a caveat there that I'd wait and see before ever committing to trading a player like Hughes. For all you know he's at the same tier as or just below McDavid so it would be foolhardy to trade him for McDavid before even seeing what you have.

 

[CanadianSniper]

For a player like McDavid, I'd trade anything short of an entire core for him. It's a silly hypothetical because that situation will never happen, but I'd say Provorov+Frost+ is just short of a core. However, there's a caveat there that I'd wait and see before ever committing to trading a player like Hughes. For all you know he's at the same tier as or just below McDavid so it would be foolhardy to trade him for McDavid before even seeing what you have.

I get what you mean, but he is not the same tier as McDavid, and he never will be.

 

[Striiker]

Hughes is good, but he's not going to be on the same planet as McDavid. "To a lesser degree"? Like, so, "He'll be the best hockey player in the world for the next 15 years, except, y'know, not really"? In my humble estimation, he peaks at Kane...maybe. I still take McD and run no matter what. You're a Flyers fan, I'm pretty sure you've seen the difference between, say, a Giroux and a Crosby.

"not going to be on the same planet as McDavid"

You're somehow managing to overrate the best player in the leauge...

Right now he's 4th in scoring, last year he only won the scoring race by 6 points over a 30 year old Giroux, and the year before he won by 11 points. You're acting like he's on some different plane of existence where no other players can even get near him.

Meanwhile, you also seem to be underrating Hughes.

Why Jack Hughes is the top-ranked 2019 NHL draft prospect

Hughes' 16-year-old season is essentially unprecedented for an American player. At USA Hockey's National Team Development Program, he put up 116 points -- just one point shy of Auston Matthews' program record. The big difference is Matthews did it when he was a year older. The previous high-water mark for a U17 player at the NTDP was 82 points set by Phil Kessel and Clayton Keller. That's a 34-point difference from what Hughes did. Last I checked, both of those guys are pretty good NHL players.

Kane, at the same age at the NTDP, had 70 points in 63 games, but 40 of those contests were in the North American Hockey League, a Tier II Junior A league in the United States. Hughes appeared in 27 games in the Tier I USHL this season and spent half the season playing up with the U.S. national U18 team in the USHL, against colleges and U18 international teams.

One of the more incredible stats from his 2017-18 season is that Hughes had 54 points against USHL competition, averaging two points per game. He led all USHL rookies and ranked 12th in league scoring despite playing only 27 games of a 60-game season.

Even more jaw-dropping, among U17 players who appeared in at least 20 games in the USHL's long history, none averaged better than 1.45 points per game. This year's No. 2 pick, Andrei Svechnikov, averaged 1.21 points per game in 48 games vs. the USHL in 2016-17. Matthews averaged one point per game in 20 USHL appearances as a U17. This league is traditionally difficult to score in, and Hughes obliterated it as a 16-year-old.

The Orlando-born forward also led two major international tournaments in scoring this year. He had 15 points in six games as the U.S. won the World U-17 Hockey Challenge, a tournament that boasts many of the NHL's top players as alumni. Only Colin White, an Ottawa Senators first-rounder, had more points than Hughes in that tournament's history. Some guy named Ilya Kovalchukranks third behind Hughes. Then he closed out his season with 12 points in seven games at the IIHF World Men's U18 Championship, becoming the first under-ager to lead that tournament in scoring since 15-year-old McDavid did it in 2013.

If he's as good as he's supposed to be, even if he averages 10 or so less points than McDavid per year, the gap is easily made up for by the rest of that package. You're out of your mind if you'd make that deal.

 

[Garbage Goal]

I get what you mean, but he is not the same tier as McDavid, and he never will be.

Like I said, or something just below that. As Striiker alluded to, it's not like McDavid is putting up 30 points over the next best guy. Even at his peak year I imagine the most separation he could ever have is 20 or less from the next best. It's not just teams that are close nowadays, it's players too.

So, if Hughes ends up being a 100+ point player, whereas McDavid is a 120+ point one in his prime and health permitting, I would never trade Hughes+Provorov+Frost for him. The separation isn't big enough to justify that. McDavid is proof himself that you can't carry a team with one player in the NHL. Even Crosby had Malkin, who was just as good as him, Staal, Fleury, Letang, Gonchar, etc. Even Ovechkin has had Backstrom, Kuznetsov, Holtby, Carlson, etc.

McDavid isn't worth half a core when one of the pieces coming back is, or could potentially be, a regular 100+ point player not even in the league yet. That's just slightly worse than McDavid is and when you're isolating it to one position, I think the difference is relatively marginal when you could put those 20+ points somewhere else in the lineup by keeping players like Frost and Provorov. Hughes may be a way above replacement player and McDavid is way, way above replacement.

 

[Lotusflower]

I understand the value of McDavid...

You realize that everything you said there can be applied to Hughes, although to a slightly lesser degree, if he's as good as he's predicted to be, right? He's supposed to be a franchise player, a one man line, a top-tier generational player, who you can build a team around. Assuming he is that, the gap between them isn't Frost, Provorov, and a first round pick.

I'm not saying three 40 point players and a pick are worth more than a 110 point player. I'm saying a 100 point player, a 70 point player, a 40 point defensemen, and a first round pick are together worth more than a 110 point player.

No chance I'd take that deal.

I'd take McDavid personally but I understand this line of thinking as well.
If I was GM and I had to take that call, I'd definitely have to think about it.

Provorov's stock has taken a big hit this year and he'll probably never be as offensively potent as his comtemporaries but he still has franchise potential.
Considering this team hasnt drafted and developed a true high end defenseman in 51 years of existence gives me pause on dealing him + a young, cost controlled high end centerman.

 

[renberg]

The Flyers went down the trade the house for the best player in the game with the Lindros trade. Philly got exciting hockey for a while; the Nordiques/Avs got a SC.

 

[LegionOfDoom91]

It’s tough to compare a hypothetical McDavid situation here to Crosby’s situation as the latter was coming up with guys like Malkin & Letang who are all close in age. Their window with that trio altogether very well could go over 15 years when all is said & done. So they’ve had a lot of kicks at the can & still are with those guys leading the way.

 

[Rich Nixon]

The Flyers went down the trade the house for the best player in the game with the Lindros trade. Philly got exciting hockey for a while; the Nordiques/Avs got a SC.

Eh, not really a good comparable. That house was larger than the hypothetical one we're discussing, and Lindros was an overhyped unknown: Hehad yet to play an NHL game, they thought they were getting a Lemieux, they ended up getting a player only a bit better than Forsberg. Plus, the things out of their control, like later injuries for Lindros, and Colorado having Sakic and Roy. If the Flyers don't make that trade I don't think they're any more likely to win a Cup in the '90's.

 

[macleish1974]

"If the Flyers don't make that trade I don't think they're any more likely to win a Cup in the '90's". Maybe they would have won it, if they did not draft two 1st round stiffs that year as well: Sittler and Bowen.

OK. I agree that any scenario involving Philadelphia and McDavid is pure moot and very unlikely but it was fun hearing different opinions.....

 

[Striiker]

I'd take McDavid personally but I understand this line of thinking as well.
If I was GM and I had to take that call, I'd definitely have to think about it.

Provorov's stock has taken a big hit this year and he'll probably never be as offensively potent as his comtemporaries but he still has franchise potential.
Considering this team hasnt drafted and developed a true high end defenseman in 51 years of existence gives me pause on dealing him + a young, cost controlled high end centerman.

But not even just the two of them, the proposal was:

McDavid

for

Hughes
Provorov
Frost
2020 1st round pick

That's just too much, assuming the gap between Hughes and McDavid is as close as it's been predicted to be.

We've seen what teams do with the best player in the world and poor depth. Edmonton is a joke right now and the Pens weren't able to win a cup for years until they finally gave Crosby AND Malkin help (Kessel and some other key players). If Hughes is even remotely near McDavid, the rest of that depth would give us the advantage. Just look at the difference between the Blackhawks and Penguins before the Penguins added that depth and won those two cups. Crosby was better than Kane, but the Blackhawks having way more depth was the difference.

 

[Don Nachbaur 26]

My gut says Hextall ends up in Edmonton.

 

[deadhead]

If Kane and Keith and Toews are franchise players, then 20 players each season are in that class.
And the Flyers have a half dozen prospects with that kind of potential.

Kane, 100 points once, ES 69, 58, 56, 56, 54, great year in 2013-14, since then E +/- of 0 or worse.
Toews, best ES seasons, 49, 48, 47, 46
Keith, best year 48 ES, 39, 38, 36

All three are very good players, but Kane and Toews peaked by 27, Keith's last top year was at 32.
Couts is as good as Toews, Giroux as Kane, and Provorov had 36 ES points at 21, Ghost 32 at 24.
Like most Cup winners, outside of Pittsburgh and Washington, you don't need HOF caliber stars.
What you need is a deep, talented team, a top goalie and some luck.

 

[TheKingPin]

There’s no way I’d trade Provorov, Hughes, Frost, + a 1st for anyone. You are talking a franchise center, likely franchise dman, likely good to great 2C and another first. McDavid is great as is Crosby, but we’ve seen Kane beat them in points and others beating McDavid now. Hughes could be more impactful than McDavid in a given year.

 

[Ruck Over]

All this hypothetical stuff is fun, but at the end of the day, the Flyers have tried this already. Initially, my reaction was a snap, obvious YES! Then, I think it was a comment by @Garbage Goal #529 that suddenly changed my mind. The separation factor, and no team in hockey being a one-man band. Edmonton won a Cup without Gretzky, but Gretzky never won again without Edmonton.

The Flyers traded a haul for Lindros, and it did not help the team win, ultimately. This feels like a lesser extent of that. Trade a bunch, especially a high-prized mystery box, for the flashiest, most exciting toy, hoping against hope that it all works. The biggest difference is this Flyers team is much deeper than the Lindros Flyers team at the time of the trade.

Still though, I could rationalize it, because McDavid is his own line, and his max-cap hit will still be less than that of Provorov + Frost + Hughes, so the surplus money could be spent to improve the team elsewhere.

I'm going to say no, and hate myself for the missed opportunity. Cutting off my nose, despite my face.

 

[deadhead]

I'd point out that Provorov hd 36 ES points (and 15 goals) last year, and in an "off" season, just turning 22, will probably end up with 25-30 ES points this year playing the toughest minutes. It's not like he's fallen off a cliff.

 

[Captain Dave Poulin]

My gut says Hextall ends up in Edmonton.

Mine too, and the irony of that is so nauseating that I can't actually stomach the thought of it at all.

 

[wasup]

My gut says Hextall ends up in Edmonton.

i completely agree with you . But a trade of Hextall for Chia would have been disasterious for us .

 

[Ghosts Beer]

My gut says Hextall ends up in Edmonton.

Wouldn’t be shocked, but his reputation has to have taken a hit.

 

[Don Nachbaur 26]

i completely agree with you . But a trade of Hextall for Chia would have been disasterious for us .

Absolutely it would have. He should get Kent Nilsson as his AGM.

 

[JojoTheWhale]

But not even just the two of them, the proposal was:

McDavid

for

Hughes
Provorov
Frost
2020 1st round pick

That's just too much, assuming the gap between Hughes and McDavid is as close as it's been predicted to be.

We've seen what teams do with the best player in the world and poor depth. Edmonton is a joke right now and the Pens weren't able to win a cup for years until they finally gave Crosby AND Malkin help (Kessel and some other key players). If Hughes is even remotely near McDavid, the rest of that depth would give us the advantage. Just look at the difference between the Blackhawks and Penguins before the Penguins added that depth and won those two cups. Crosby was better than Kane, but the Blackhawks having way more depth was the difference.

I'm going to get yelled at for this and that's fine. The only part of this potential trade that should change your mind is Hughes. If you think he's close to McDavid, you don't do it. The rest of it is quantity for quality ON THE MCDAVID SCALE.

Yes, it costs you cap space in the immediate future, and yes, it costs you depth. The difference between McDavid and everyone is being severely underrated. That's a 22 Min/night MASSIVE upgrade and the return asset is only 22. There's no reason this team should be gutted the way Chiarelli did the Oilers. The opportunity was there.

 

[Tripod]

To add to that awful Koskinen deal...PC ALSO gave him a NMC. So if he is awful, he is stuck with him...not that PC will be around that long.

Oh, and it also means the Oilers HAVE to protect him in the expansion draft.

Just awful.

 

[Chinatown88]

Peter Chiarelli, Scott Howson and Craig MacTavish all work in their front office. LOL

 

[Lotusflower]

If Kane and Keith and Toews are franchise players, then 20 players each season are in that class.
And the Flyers have a half dozen prospects with that kind of potential.


you don't need HOF caliber stars.
.

The Bolded is just you making up stuff. I wish these assertions were true for this team, but theyre not.
So...youre gonna argue that Keith isnt the best defenseman of his generation?
That Kane's not the 2nd best winger of his generation?

OK. To each his own.
Couts being equivalent to Toews I can sort of understand, even though its wrong, but there's no prospect we have currently who has the offensive upside of a Kane.

(That's why a tank is prudent)

I love Provorov but stop bringing up ES points and goals from a year ago.
More than likely those are his career highs.

Kane, Toews, Keith will all make the HOF on the 1st ballot

That the Flyers have "half a dozen" prospects with 1st Ballot HOF'er upside as of Jan 2019 has to be one of the greatest hottakes.
You wouldnt put 10 dollars on that assertion with your local bookie just for the fun of it and you know it.

 

[hatcher]

The Bolded is just you making up stuff. I wish these assertions were true for this team, but theyre not.
So...youre gonna argue that Keith isnt the best defenseman of his generation?
That Kane's not the 2nd best winger of his generation?

OK. To each his own.
Couts being equivalent to Toews I can sort of understand, even though its wrong, but there's no prospect we have currently who has the offensive upside of a Kane.

(That's why a tank is prudent)

I love Provorov but stop bringing up ES points and goals from a year ago.
More than likely those are his career highs.

Kane, Toews, Keith will all make the HOF on the 1st ballot

That the Flyers have "half a dozen" prospects with 1st Ballot HOF'er upside as of Jan 2019 has to be one of the greatest hottakes.
You wouldnt put 10 dollars on that assertion with your local bookie just for the fun of it and you know it.

Exactly! Thiese players have done nothing in big games yet amd only time will tell.

 

[Tripod]

Peter Chiarelli, Scott Howson and Craig MacTavish all work in their front office. LOL

Just to pile on the Oilers, I saw this on the main boards too:

"Imagine paying a 2nd round pick just so you could hire PC to run your franchise into the ground...and that pick turned out to be Jack Studnicka"