Miscellaneous NHL Talk, 2018 edition

[Rebels57]

When the roster is clearly his attempt at competing. When it isn't obvious that there's short term placeholders in key spots. When many of the core pieces aren't in their first 2-3 years.

What you should judge him on is:

1) plan - does the way he thinks he can create a competitive team actually have a chance of working?
2) attempt- is he making progress in his attempt to follow that path of team building?
3) results - did it work?

2 of those 3 are looking successful so far. The last one is too early to judge.

He's obviously focusing on drafting and developing talent, and that's been a massive success so far. Many of the key parts of this roster has either been filled by those young guys or will be filled in the near future. Then whatever holes are left over can be filled by outside additions. The most important part of his job has been going well and all of the complaints (outside of coaching) are insignificant things that won't hurt us in the future.

Right but he doesnt have an indefinite amount of time to accomplish that so the question is, within reason, when do you think they should be contenders?

I recall saying a few years ago that I thought they should be legit contenders by 2018-2019.

IIRC, I thought we would miss Playoff in 15-16, make Playoffs in 16-17, Make and maybe win a round or two in 17-18, contend in 18-19 and beyond.

 

[Striiker]

Right but he doesnt have an indefinite amount of time to accomplish that so the question is, within reason, when do you think they should be contenders?

Of course not, I'm not affording him infinite time do get this together.

It's really hard to put a numerical timeline on it. In my eyes, the two things in between us and contending are experience and goaltending.

First, we have some players who need to be key parts of any future playoff success but just aren't quite at the level they need to be at yet. I'm confident in some of the young guys already, but some of them just need time to grow and get closer to their potential. Guys like Patrick, Sanheim, Myers, Lindblom, and so on.

Second, obviously we're not competing with Elliott and Neuvrith in net, so the timeline will mostly depend on when we can find a real solution to that hole. Hopefully it's Hart, but that's obviously not a guarantee. Until we know what he can do, we're in a tough spot. I don't want to make a big trade/commitment that could potentially hurt other areas of the team or block Hart. I think after this upcoming year we'll have a much better view of what the goaltending future looks like.

So there's really no number to give and say "in x years, we should be a contedner" because there's a million things that can happen between then and now that effect our chances, both in and out of Hextall's control. I think we'll just eventually get to a point where we'll feel it and say "ok, it's been too long... he's not the right guy to get us there". But we're not there yet. I'm still seeing clear progress in the areas most important, so I'm not worried yet. That doesn't mean I agree with him on everything or he's been perfect, because he certainly hasn't. I just give him a passing grade so far because the good has outweighed the bad.

 

[Rebels57]

How about an estimate instead of a specific year?

 

[Striiker]

How about an estimate instead of a specific year?

To be a legit contending threat? 3 years maybe?

I think it depends on Hart more than anything.

 

[achdumeingute]

Right but he doesnt have an indefinite amount of time to accomplish that so the question is, within reason, when do you think they should be contenders?

I recall saying a few years ago that I thought they should be legit contenders by 2018-2019.

IIRC, I thought we would miss Playoff in 15-16, make Playoffs in 16-17, Make and maybe win a round or two in 17-18, contend in 18-19 and beyond.

19-20 is my expectation for a 2nd round + push.

 

[Rebels57]

To be a legit contending threat? 3 years maybe?

I think it depends on Hart more than anything.

Hypothetically, if the team starts to look like a contender in everywhere but net next season, should they upgrade in goal sooner?

 

[achdumeingute]

To be a legit contending threat? 3 years maybe?

I think it depends on Hart more than anything.

most of us are putting alot of eggs in the hart basket. We theoretically could trade for an upgrade at that point if necessary.

 

[Striiker]

Hypothetically, if the team starts to look like a contender in everywhere but net next season, should they upgrade in goal sooner?

It would probably depend on how Hart looks in the AHL and what the options are for a trade/signing. But definitely something you have to consider.

 

[Striiker]

most of us are putting alot of eggs in the hart basket. We theoretically could trade for an upgrade at that point if necessary.

That would completely depend on the target and the cost.

It would be foolish to completely close yourself off to trade possibilities, no matter what your prospects look like.

 

[achdumeingute]

Hypothetically, if the team starts to look like a contender in everywhere but net next season, should they upgrade in goal sooner?

like every deal, cost/term ect.

Rinne, for example, might be an option for a couple years if he hits UFA.

Id trade for Henrik in a heartbeat if the cost was a 3rd rounder.

 

[deadhead]

2018-19, get to 100 points, get to 2nd rd
2019-20, make a push for the CF, be more aggressive in the offseason
2020-21, everything should be in place, if there's a gapping hole, time for a major move to fix it - However, ED is going to make that a tricky summer

Now understand that these things are often one step back, two steps forward, injuries happen, players don't work out, always have to have Plan B and Plan C.
Which is why you want to maintain as much flexibility as possible, both in cap room and accumulating excess assets.

Just look at the Bruins, they have a bunch of young talent coming up, but are hamstring by a few bad contracts.

 

[achdumeingute]

My GM barometer is are we better than last year. IMO...the answer was yes this year. It likely will be yes before next year as well.

We are going to likely go the Caps/CBJ route and will be a very good team. Its hard to really justify "blowing" that up...but like WAS...it took a long time.

 

[achdumeingute]

I don't think it's fair to call Holmgren "bad," given his owner and the rules at the time, he started well, then couldn't adjust to the new environment after the salary cap asteroid struck the NHL world.

View attachment 125167

I agree with your assessment. The change from 100m 14yr deals to todays CBA hurt a spendy team like us much more.

No way OEL stays in ARI if he can get that deal from someone like us.

 

[MacDonald4MVP]

Can anyone give me summary on last two pages?

 

[pit]

Can anyone give me summary on last two pages?

Holmgren was bad - No he wasn't.

Holmgren was good - No he wasn't.

Hextall should have this team contending now - No he shouldn't. Patience.

Hextall has this team on the right path - No he doesn't. When do you think we contend?


I think that's it... maybe something about burner twitter accounts.

 

[The Madrigal]

Hextall has the cap space this summer, two mid round picks to work with as potential trade pieces, and core group in place that the Flyers should be a legit playoff team capable of winning a round or two in 2019, and a pushing to be a true cup contender by 2020. This notion of just waiting around for a 20 year old goalie to come in and save the franchise in two or three years is just plain silly and unfair to the kid and team.

 

[achdumeingute]

Holmgren was bad - No he wasn't.

Holmgren was good - No he wasn't.

Hextall should have this team contending now - No he shouldn't. Patience.

Hextall has this team on the right path - No he doesn't. When do you think we contend?


I think that's it... maybe something about burner twitter accounts.

this summarizes every thread/conversation on here that I can remember.

 

[Embiid]

Holmgren was bad - No he wasn't.

Holmgren was good - No he wasn't.

Hextall should have this team contending now - No he shouldn't. Patience.

Hextall has this team on the right path - No he doesn't. When do you think we contend?


I think that's it... maybe something about burner twitter accounts.

I wish we had something in between Holmgren (& Hextall) who went full Holmgren trying to win a cup in the short term (hence the playoff appearances at the expense of traded draft picks except the last few years when he wised up). The farm team was a joke by the time Hextall took over....Holmgren couldn't even tell Hextall when he asked him how many players on the team were home grown. Funny thing is I recall after Holmgren was "promoted" he assessed his own record as a GM and he pretty much said it was inconsistent and hence mediocre. Now we have Hextall who watches his prospects "like a hawk" and slow cooks them almost to the point of the meat falling off their bones. He wants to build solely through the draft with prospects and his FA signings have been pretty bad. Worst of all he thinks Hakstol is Jacques Lemaire or something when he was with the Devils and they built a sustainable winning team/system and culture and their players were interchangeable from the farm team up to the main team. I mean I see the logic...not sure though about the implementation plan especially with Hak at the helm...

 

[deadhead]

Hextall doesn't marinate his players any longer than most GMs.
There's only one player people point to, and Sanheim showed in the AHL playoffs he still has a lot of rough edges.
Provorov, Patrick, TK haven't been marinated, Lindblom was up at 21, Laughton was up at 21, and at 23 he showed his limitations in his own zone defensively.
Hagg started at 22 as well.

The problem is it often takes 1-2 years for top 10 picks, 2-3 years for 11-20, and 3-6 years for later picks to win regular starting jobs in the NHL.
Given how little there was in the pipeline, basically Ghost and a bunch of scrubs, Hextall's 2014 draft (Sanheim, NAK, Lindblom) is just now arriving, 2015 is a mixed bag (Provorov, TK, Sandstrom, Vorobyev, Kase), 2016 is hitting the beach at LHV (Rubtsov, Laberge, Hart,. Twarynski, Bunnaman with Allison, Laczynski, Hogberg and Bernhardt down the road). 2017 is still in juniors.

So we're still a couple years away, not because Hextall wants to draft forever or marinate these players to death, but because while the 1st rd picks are the core players, the later round picks are the depth (and a few surprises) that fill out a roster - and they take longer to arrive. So it's not just waiting for Rubtsov, Frost, Hart, Ratcliffe, Allison and #14, but all the later picks that will fill out the bottom six, the third defensive pair, the backup goalie - and permit Hextall to pay for his top players for an extended period.

 

[The Madrigal]

So we're still a couple years away, not because Hextall wants to draft forever or marinate these players to death, but because while the 1st rd picks are the core players, the later round picks are the depth (and a few surprises) that fill out a roster - and they take longer to arrive. So it's not just waiting for Rubtsov, Frost, Hart, Ratcliffe, Allison and #14, but all the later picks that will fill out the bottom six, the third defensive pair, the backup goalie - and permit Hextall to pay for his top players for an extended period.

Please answer this because the curiosity is honestly killing me. Why on earth do you continue to insist that pretty much the entire roster top to bottom is going to be filled with prospects. The idea of prolonging an already four year rebuild for a couple more years to fill out the entire roster with prospects is quite absurd. Also, don't say it's about cap space because I already proved that theory to be wrong in the off season thread.

 

[Embiid]

Not gonna lie and say I'm not glad that we have a pipeline of prospects. What Holmgren did to try and win a cup in the short term with the prodding of the late Mr. Snider was a big setback we are still trying to get over. However, I think Hextall is so myopic (some would say focused and resolute) with his plan that I think it is making the process much slower than need be....Vegas showed that to the entire league. My biggest criticism is Hextall's adamant stance with respect to Hakstol....he is being too obtuse. The guy is no Jacques Lemaire to build the identity of your team with. Hak is all tactical ....he will win you battles but not the war. Hextall needs to wake up to this reality...

 

[The Madrigal]

Not gonna lie and say I'm not glad that we have a pipeline of prospects. What Holmgren did to try and win a cup in the short term with the prodding of the late Mr. Snider was a big setback we are still trying to get over. However, I think Hextall is so myopic (some would say focused and resolute) with his plan that I think it is making the process much slower than need be....Vegas showed that to the entire league. My biggest criticism is Hextall's adamant stance with respect to Hakstol....he is being too obtuse. The guy is no Jacques Lemaire to build the identity of your team with. Hak is all tactical ....he will win you battles but not the war. Hextall needs to wake up to this reality...

Well said. There is risk averse and then there is Hextall.

 

[BernieParent]

Not gonna lie and say I'm not glad that we have a pipeline of prospects. What Holmgren did to try and win a cup in the short term with the prodding of the late Mr. Snider was a big setback we are still trying to get over. However, I think Hextall is so myopic (some would say focused and resolute) with his plan that I think it is making the process much slower than need be....Vegas showed that to the entire league. My biggest criticism is Hextall's adamant stance with respect to Hakstol....he is being too obtuse. The guy is no Jacques Lemaire to build the identity of your team with. Hak is all tactical ....he will win you battles but not the war. Hextall needs to wake up to this reality...

I've stated quite a few times that I still have fond memories of the 2010 playoffs. The biggest highlights were a historic comeback against Boston, and sticking the Cinderella Canadiens' glass slipper up so high the proctologist would never find it. Holmgren went big but needed someone like Hextall on his team questioning whether he really needed to toss in 2nd round picks for mediocre depth talent. These lost picks were among the biggest erosions of franchise talent during the heady days of Holmgren.

 

[Rebels57]

I've stated quite a few times that I still have fond memories of the 2010 playoffs. The biggest highlights were a historic comeback against Boston, and sticking the Cinderella Canadiens' glass slipper up so high the proctologist would never find it. Holmgren went big but needed someone like Hextall on his team questioning whether he really needed to toss in 2nd round picks for mediocre depth talent. These lost picks were among the biggest erosions of franchise talent during the heady days of Holmgren.

Yeah when I look at Homer trades like Upshall + 2nd for Carcillo, I cant help but cringe.

If we keep that pick maybe we end up drafting a guy like Orlov or Tatar?

2009 NHL Entry Draft Picks at hockeydb.com

 

[deadhead]

Please answer this because the curiosity is honestly killing me. Why on earth do you continue to insist that pretty much the entire roster top to bottom is going to be filled with prospects. The idea of prolonging an already four year rebuild for a couple more years to fill out the entire roster with prospects is quite absurd. Also, don't say it's about cap space because I already proved that theory to be wrong in the off season thread.

Because in today's NHL you can only carry so many big contracts, Flyers already have Giroux and Voracek, and will have a half dozen big RFA contracts over the next four years.
So they aren't going to add a bunch of FAs or trade for veterans that they have to extend, maybe 1-2 over the next three years or so.
Which means the rest of the roster will either be prospects or veteran scrubs - which would you prefer?

And the bottom six is where you put prospects to get on the job training, the talented offensive guys on the 3rd line, the scrappier guys on the 4th line, and young defensemen sheltered on the 3rd pairing.