Minnesota Wild General Discussion V

[2Pair]

Stalock hasn't failed in a single playoff game. He might be below average goalie, but that's a good place to start.

Stalock is not an NHL goalie.

 

[2Pair]

Average how?

Hate to do this because The Athletic is worth the few bucks it costs you every month literally every single day you read it. But a snippet:

For a guy that loves to use stats, why wouldn't you use the real numbers?

 

[Saga of the Elk]

For a guy that loves to use stats, why wouldn't you use the real numbers?

me? what about Russo's numbers isn't real?

I personally don't care much for goalie stats, have limited time for them. I like watching hockey. Stats mostly illuminate the validity or not of peoples' prejudices. Clearly they are not dispositive nor persuasive for everyone nor for every possible angle.

 

[Goose312]

Average how?

Hate to do this because The Athletic is worth the few bucks it costs you every month literally every single day you read it. But a snippet:

A lot of those stats are driven by him being a workhorse and, at least in the regular season, he does well in the Wild's system. Over the same span no goalie has a higher expected Sv%. Of the 15 starters that have played in 20+ playoff games since 2015 he has the highest playoff expected Sv%, he's last in actual Sv%, 13/15th in GAA.

 

[Saga of the Elk]

A lot of those stats are driven by him being a workhorse and, at least in the regular season, he does well in the Wild's system. Over the same span no goalie has a higher expected Sv%. Of the 15 starters that have played in 20+ playoff games since 2015 he has the highest playoff expected Sv%, he's last in actual Sv%, 13/15th in GAA.

Ok, so he's a workhorse and that's bad. He was awful against Dallas in 2016, the year where the Wild was the last wild card and Dallas was the Western Conference regular season champions. Guess that was also all on him being a workhorse. The years since he has a .600 quality start percentage in the playoffs, which is .... good. Definitely not good enough to single-handedly beat teams 0-0 but good.

All you guys that rag on Dubnyk have yet to suggest a plausible upgrade. He has a good contract and is a good goalie. He is BY FAR the player of least concern on the entire team in terms of contract, performance, age, upside. This is a bad conversation.

 

[AKL]

Ok, so he's a workhorse and that's bad. He was awful against Dallas in 2016, the year where the Wild was the last wild card and Dallas was the Western Conference regular season champions. Guess that was also all on him being a workhorse. The years since he has a .600 quality start percentage in the playoffs, which is .... good. Definitely not good enough to single-handedly beat teams 0-0 but good.

All you guys that rag on Dubnyk have yet to suggest a plausible upgrade. He has a good contract and is a good goalie. He is BY FAR the player of least concern on the entire team in terms of contract, performance, age, upside. This is a bad conversation.

Are you suggesting that just because there isn’t a viable upgrade available at the moment, that we can’t criticize or fault Dubnyk for his role in the lack of team playoff success?

I don’t want to put words in your mouth, so I’m asking, but the way you phrased the last paragraph makes it seem like you think criticism is unfair because no one has suggested an alternative option.

 

[Goose312]

Ok, so he's a workhorse and that's bad. He was awful against Dallas in 2016, the year where the Wild was the last wild card and Dallas was the Western Conference regular season champions. Guess that was also all on him being a workhorse. The years since he has a .600 quality start percentage in the playoffs, which is .... good. Definitely not good enough to single-handedly beat teams 0-0 but good.

All you guys that rag on Dubnyk have yet to suggest a plausible upgrade. He has a good contract and is a good goalie. He is BY FAR the player of least concern on the entire team in terms of contract, performance, age, upside. This is a bad conversation.

I didn't say him being a workhorse was bad, I think it's one of his better qualities though it does seem to burn him out late in the season, I said that a lot of his stats are helped by how many games he has played. To pick and choose which series are relevant and which aren't is a bit disingenuous when trying to argue his worth, but you are also heftily overblowing that series. The Wild lost 2-4 and 3 of those losses were by 1 goal when he was "awful"

I already mentioned that Dubnyk has the highest expected save percentage in the post season, I guess I'll add the Wild have the lowest expected GA/60 as a team, so him having a good QS% which is based on save percentage and GAA should be expected and a great QS% would be hoped for.

I'm not saying anything about replacing him. I'm pointing out that bringing up raw numbers with no context is misleading. I think he's part of the problem, not THE problem, but not exempt from criticism and not due the praise the non-contextualized numbers give him. He's certainly not even close to the player of least concern. For a cap strapped team it is what it is. He either needs to be better, the Wild need to find a way to upgrade which I don't think can really happen, or the Wild need to upgrade the rest of their game to compensate.

 

[Saga of the Elk]

Are you suggesting that just because there isn’t a viable upgrade available at the moment, that we can’t criticize or fault Dubnyk for his role in the lack of team playoff success?

I don’t want to put words in your mouth, so I’m asking, but the way you phrased the last paragraph makes it seem like you think criticism is unfair because no one has suggested an alternative option.

I think criticism is overblown. It's fair to want better performances.

That said, salary aside - what goalie is a better option for 2018-19? Give me legacy stats, all-time wins, Cups, Vezinas, the guy who will be the best performer for the next three seasons on average: I want to know the name and the name of the GM who's going to trade him. Is it Price, Lundqvist, Rask, Murray, Samsonov, Vasilevsky? A guy like Robin Lehner? Holtby? Hellebuyck? Seriously, a guy who's as good as Dubnyk is hard to get. Getting a guy who's better? Pretty much impossible. I know they could probably trade for Jimmy Howard. They could pick up a guy off waivers, go for a Cal Pickard. Teams would line up to get Dubnyk. If it's Stalock, Kahkonen, and the Hamburglar, this team is not making the playoffs or getting a chance to prove the doubters wrong.

If they have a good defensive team I don't think improving offense means Dubnyk falls off a cliff in any category. Do you guys?

 

[Spurgeon]

Stalock hasn't failed in a single playoff game. He might be below average goalie, but that's a good place to start.

So Dubnyk isn't the answer, but Stalock is?

Might be the worst take I've ever read on here.

 

[Wild11MN]

Please just let the season start already.

 

[Spurgeon]

Please just let the season start already.

But then we don't have enough time to be armchair GMs.

 

[2Pair]

I think criticism is overblown. It's fair to want better performances.

That said, salary aside - what goalie is a better option for 2018-19? Give me legacy stats, all-time wins, Cups, Vezinas, the guy who will be the best performer for the next three seasons on average: I want to know the name and the name of the GM who's going to trade him. Is it Price, Lundqvist, Rask, Murray, Samsonov, Vasilevsky? A guy like Robin Lehner? Holtby? Hellebuyck? Seriously, a guy who's as good as Dubnyk is hard to get. Getting a guy who's better? Pretty much impossible. I know they could probably trade for Jimmy Howard. They could pick up a guy off waivers, go for a Cal Pickard. Teams would line up to get Dubnyk. If it's Stalock, Kahkonen, and the Hamburglar, this team is not making the playoffs or getting a chance to prove the doubters wrong.

If they have a good defensive team I don't think improving offense means Dubnyk falls off a cliff in any category. Do you guys?

Who the hell was Dubnyk before he got in the Wild system? The guy was just about out of the league when the Wild got him. I wouldn't be the least bit surprised to see a guy like Howard put up better numbers than Dubnyk in this system. I don't think getting rid of Dubnyk is a good idea, but I was hopeful that Fenton was going to get a real backup this summer. Lehner or Mrazek at the deals they signed, would've been very interesting to see play for this team.

 

[57special]

Stalock is not a better goalie than dubnyk (duh), but i love to watch him handle the puck. Granlundesque.

 

[Kamloops218]

Doobie doobski cant stop a beach ball most nights. He’ll figure in for a lot of Laines 50+ goal season.

 

[Ban Hammered]

Doobie doobski cant stop a beach ball most nights. He’ll figure in for a lot of Laines 50+ goal season.

The hyperbole is strong with this one.

 

[grN1g]

I'll take Dubnyk's "cant stop a beach ball most nights" with his cap hit cause its a great value contract. We spend less than 5m for goalies and get pretty consistent production. Dubs has shown he can catch fire for decent stretches too but do believe having a backup that could potentially take over in the somewhat near future would be ideal and lessen dubs workload, and also tell him to never handle the puck anymore.

 

[ThatGuy22]

Who the hell was Dubnyk before he got in the Wild system? The guy was just about out of the league when the Wild got him. I wouldn't be the least bit surprised to see a guy like Howard put up better numbers than Dubnyk in this system. I don't think getting rid of Dubnyk is a good idea, but I was hopeful that Fenton was going to get a real backup this summer. Lehner or Mrazek at the deals they signed, would've been very interesting to see play for this team.

He was a guy that was largely solid behind Edmonton's shit defense with the exception of one year where he put on one of the worst performances by a goalie ever.

 

[Aurinko]

He was a guy that was largely solid behind Edmonton's **** defense with the exception of one year where he put on one of the worst performances by a goalie ever.

He did above expected saves during his time in EDM.

2010-2013 In Edmonton +0,8 % above average goaltender (save% 91,7 - expected save%: 90,9)
2015-2018 In Wild -0,6% below average goaltender (save% 91,8 - expected save% 92,4)


Did not include the dreadful 13-14 season in EDM or the great 14-15 season in ARI/MIN.

 

[Wabit]

It looks like the Wild have 11 games on NBC/NBCSN this season, it looks like they are trying to pump up the Preds/Wild rivalry with 3 games.

Edit: to 11 games from 13. I double counted the NBC games because I'm dumb.

 

[Wild11MN]

It looks like the Wild have 13 games on NBC/NBCSN this season, it looks like they are trying to pump up the Preds/Wild rivalry with 3 games.

The only Central team we haven't played in the playoffs since the divisional format!

 

[Wasted Talent]

It looks like the Wild have 13 games on NBC/NBCSN this season, it looks like they are trying to pump up the Preds/Wild rivalry with 3 games.

Too bad they scrapped the Wednesday Night Rivalry format, how else are we supposed to watch the classic Wild/Bruins rivalry on national TV?

 

[Wild11MN]

Too bad they scrapped the Wednesday Night Rivalry format, how else are we supposed to watch the classic Wild/Bruins rivalry on national TV?

Don't worry, we have "Star Sunday" now.

 

[nickschultzfan]

It looks like the Wild have 13 games on NBC/NBCSN this season, it looks like they are trying to pump up the Preds/Wild rivalry with 3 games.

Or NBC is higher on the Wild than we are and they just like the tough match-up for the contending Predators.

 

[ThatGuy22]

Or NBC is higher on the Wild than we are and they just like the tough match-up for the contending Predators.

That, and the Wild always gets a good number of national games because the Wild produce good ratings, due to a strong local following. Same reason Buffalo always has a ton of national games.

 

[TaLoN]

That, and the Wild always gets a good number of national games because the Wild produce good ratings, due to a strong local following. Same reason Buffalo always has a ton of national games.

Wasn't always the case. We had a time where we'd see only 4-5 national games in a season.

Since the Wild have regularly made the playoffs, they've gotten 11 or more pretty consistently.