Minnesota Wild General Discussion V

[Dickie Dunn]

I think we've all watched enough hockey to know when the better team is losing because of a goalie. That wasn't the case against Winnipeg this year but I do think it was the case against Allen last year as he was incredible in those first 3 games and simply stole all the Wild's confidence. I still don't understand why the offense disappeared so bad against Winnipeg though.

ETA: I do think that goalies don't play nearly as confidently as loose when they feel like they have to play perfect to win.....a' la Dubnyk.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

I think we've all watched enough hockey to know when the better team is losing because of a goalie. That wasn't the case against Winnipeg this year but I do think it was the case against Allen last year as he was incredible in those first 3 games and simply stole all the Wild's confidence. I still don't understand why the offense disappeared so bad against Winnipeg though.

ETA: I do think that goalies don't play nearly as confidently as loose when they feel like they have to play perfect to win.....a' la Dubnyk.

1. Winnipeg was a better team
2. We had a lot of trouble getting out of our own zone

 

[Dickie Dunn]

1. Winnipeg was a better team
2. We had a lot of trouble getting out of our own zone

And that's what I have trouble reconciling. If they are that much worse than Winnipeg then they aren't anywhere near only a couple tweaks away and ready to get near 100 points again.

 

[Saga of the Elk]

And that's what I have trouble reconciling. If they are that much worse than Winnipeg then they aren't anywhere near only a couple tweaks away and ready to get near 100 points again.

I kind of boil it down to the centers. Maybe JEE takes a huge leap forward but I don't feel very confident that Staal and (mostly) Koivu are going to be better this season than

Scheifele / Little /
O'Reilly / Schenn / Bozak
Benn / Janmark
Johansen / Turris
MacKinnon / Jost
Toews / Anisimov

Some nights sure but then you start factoring in guys like McDavid, Draisaitl, Kopitar, Carter, Couture, Pavelski, Getzlaf.... it's a lot to ask of those two.

Then you start factoring in the third liners and the depth guys: Spezza, Bonino, Soderberg, Roslovic, Stastny, Lowry, Hanzal, Henrique... feels like the Wild will be in tough a lot of nights if Staal has a worse season than last, Koivu brings his game the same as last, JEE takes a modest step up.

Dubnyk is the least of this team's worries. What if an injury to Koivu happens? Coyle becomes a tough-minute center overnight? Eric Fehr replaces him?

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

And that's what I have trouble reconciling. If they are that much worse than Winnipeg then they aren't anywhere near only a couple tweaks away and ready to get near 100 points again.

I don't think that those things have to be connected. Winnipeg can be a better team and we can be a 100 point team again.

 

[Ban Hammered]

Well one of the two series we've won in the last 6 years was with Kuemper.. so maybe we should try Stallock. Do you really trust Dubnyk getting us far in the playoffs? Or do we watch different goalies

I don't think it's up to Dubnyk to get us far in the playoffs. The team can't score...that's not Dubnyk's fault.

 

[Victorious Secret]

Helped blow the comeback against the Stars in 2016. He can make the tough stops, but let's in some easy ones. He just needs to tighten up, whether that's mental or otherwise. Offense should get the blame for putting them behind in that series in the first place. But asking to not let in completely deflating goals isn't too farfetched of a request.

 

[57special]

Helped blow the comeback against the Stars in 2016. He can make the tough stops, but let's in some easy ones. He just needs to tighten up, whether that's mental or otherwise. Offense should get the blame for putting them behind in that series in the first place. But asking to not let in completely deflating goals isn't too farfetched of a request.

I pretty well agree with this. Doobs isn't the only reason we lose PO games, but he is one of them. Overall, a good goaltender, and a horse during the regular season. Sure would like to have a young, talented G pushing him, though.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

Over the last 2 years (2 straight 1st round exits):

Granlund: 1 goal, 5 points in 10 games
Staal: 1 goal, 3 points in 10 games
Zucker: 1 goal, 1 point in 10 games
Nino: 0 goals, 1 point in 10 games
Coyle: 2 goals, 2 points in 10 games
Koivu: 1 goal, 6 points in 10 games
Dumba: 1 goal, 2 points in 10 games
Spurgeon: 0 goals, 2 points in 10 games

Go back 3 years and some get a little better (Nino, Koivu, Spurgeon) and some don't (Granlund, Coyle, Zucker, Dumba).

Parise has been the best out of anybody, but has an entire missed series and bowed out early in the latest one.

 

[AKL]

Over the last 2 years (2 straight 1st round exits):

Granlund: 1 goal, 5 points in 10 games
Staal: 1 goal, 3 points in 10 games
Zucker: 1 goal, 1 point in 10 games
Nino: 0 goals, 1 point in 10 games
Coyle: 2 goals, 2 points in 10 games
Koivu: 1 goal, 6 points in 10 games
Dumba: 1 goal, 2 points in 10 games
Spurgeon: 0 goals, 2 points in 10 games

Go back 3 years and some get a little better (Nino, Koivu, Spurgeon) and some don't (Granlund, Coyle, Zucker, Dumba).

Parise has been the best out of anybody, but has an entire missed series and bowed out early in the latest one.

Gotta wonder what it is when EVERYONE takes a step back in production apart from Koivu and Parise.

You look at it all and the one common denominator is age (maybe experience in the league), but some of these guys have gone to 3-4+ playoffs now. How long can that be an excuse (if it can even currently be one)?

 

[Minnesnota]

A team isn't going to win playoff games if they can't score just the same as they won't win if they have a .900sv% goalie.

 

[BigT2002]

Gotta wonder what it is when EVERYONE takes a step back in production apart from Koivu and Parise.

You look at it all and the one common denominator is age (maybe experience in the league), but some of these guys have gone to 3-4+ playoffs now. How long can that be an excuse (if it can even currently be one)?

Especially when some of them leave the playoffs and light it up in International play. Coyle, Granlund and Nino have all been key folks on that end in the last couple years.

 

[AKL]

Especially when some of them leave the playoffs and light it up in International play. Coyle, Granlund and Nino have all been key folks on that end in the last couple years.

It’s really baffling, because it’s been 3 coaches now who can’t seem to get offense out of this roster in the postseason.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

2012-13: Chicago was the runaway division and conference winner, Cup champ, and we clearly weren't ready to do anything in the playoffs
2013-14: beat the division winner, lost to Chicago 4-2 (respectable)
2014-15: beat division winner, got swept by Chicago who weren't that much better than us, if any (2nd most disappointing)
2015-16: lost to division winner 4-2
2016-17: only series loss when we were the higher seed (most disappointing)
2017-18: lost to a very good Winnipeg team missing the most important part of the team

I know it's disappointing and all, but some people act like we've been the prohibitive favorite in all these series and choked it away. Aside from 2016-17 when we "ran into the hot goalie" or however you want to describe it, is there really a series loss that shouldn't have happened? Maybe not getting swept by Chicago, but they were at the peak of their powers and should've beaten us in however many games.

 

[57special]

Gotta wonder what it is when EVERYONE takes a step back in production apart from Koivu and Parise.

A very short sample size?

 

[Aurinko]

A team isn't going to win playoff games if they can't score just the same as they won't win if they have a .900sv% goalie.

Fixing the scoring isn't as easy, but you can win playoff games with the 2,2 goal/game average which we have
Fixing the goalie from 90% up should be easy: just pick any average goal tender. This years shot quality against us should end up with a 92,6% expected save percent, so for an average goalie (1-.92,6)*~30 shots=2,2 goal/game. Anything above average goalie and we are already outscoring our opponents. During the season Duby performed 0,8% below expected average at 91,8%... if we had a goalie like Gibson who performed +1,7% above average goaltender, we should have 92,6+1,7=94,3 % saves (~1,7 goal/game).

 

[Spurgeon]

Fixing the scoring isn't as easy, but you can win playoff games with the 2,2 goal/game average which we have
Fixing the goalie from 90% up should be easy: just pick any average goal tender. This years shot quality against us should end up with a 92,6% expected save percent, so for an average goalie (1-.92,6)*~30 shots=2,2 goal/game. Anything above average goalie and we are already outscoring our opponents. During the season Duby performed 0,8% below expected average at 91,8%... if we had a goalie like Gibson who performed +1,7% above average goaltender, we should have 92,6+1,7=94,3 % saves (~1,7 goal/game).

We have better odds of finding the next McDavid than we do of finding a goalie that's going to put up a .943 SV%. That stat is severely flawed if it predicts Gibson would come in here and put up numbers like that.

 

[Aurinko]

We have better odds of finding the next McDavid than we do of finding a goalie that's going to put up a .943 SV%. That stat is severely flawed if it predicts Gibson would come in here and put up numbers like that.

There's only one way to find out: play Dubnyk again and again until the window of opportunity closes

 

[DANOZ28]

we've had 2 years under BB and our core group cant do anything in the playoffs. if we lost a game 7 heartbreaker that would be different however slowly but surely we've got to start making some changes. it should have started by getting something decent for pommer & scandella. do we want to end up like the sharks always a bridesmaid never a bride? i think we need to make cap room to possibly add a big gun next summer.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

There's only one way to find out: play Dubnyk again and again until the window of opportunity closes

Have you said which available goalie we should go get yet?

 

[Aurinko]

Have you said which available goalie we should go get yet?

Stalock hasn't failed in a single playoff game. He might be below average goalie, but that's a good place to start.

 

[Saga of the Elk]

Have you said which available goalie we should go get yet?

Russo answered the Dubnyk issue quite well in his article on the Athletic today.

He's great value, an excellent goalie, and you're not winning a Cup when the rest of the team wilts in the end of April.

 

[DANOZ28]

how does russo conclude dubnyk is excellent? i disagree with that he is avg at best.

 

[Dickie Dunn]

Stalock hasn't failed in a single playoff game. He might be below average goalie, but that's a good place to start.

Fun for us to think about things like this as a fan but not one of us would actually do this if we were the Wild coach. To an already fragile team at playoff time, benching Dubnyk would be an awful message to send and completely ruin the last shred of confidence this team ever plays with in April.

 

[Saga of the Elk]

how does russo conclude dubnyk is excellent? i disagree with that he is avg at best.

Average how?

Hate to do this because The Athletic is worth the few bucks it costs you every month literally every single day you read it. But a snippet:

Since Jan. 15, 2015, Dubnyk leads the NHL with 231 games played and 20 shutouts, is tied for first with a .923 save percentage, is second with 134 wins and second with a 2.26 goals-against average (#hehe).

Dubnyk, according to Capfriendly.com, now has the 21st-highest cap hit among all goalies in the NHL. Of the top 21, only four have backstopped their teams to Stanley Cups (Washington’s Braden Holtby, seventh-highest cap hit at $6.1 million, 2018); Chicago’s Corey Crawford, eighth-highest cap hit at $6 million, 2013 and 2015); Jonathan Quick, 11th-highest cap hit at $5.8 million, 2012 and 2014) and Vegas’ Marc-Andre Fleury, 12th-highest cap hit at $5.75 million, 2009, 2016 and 2017 with Pittsburgh). Sixteen others make more money than Dubnyk (and some have lapped him, so to speak, in career earnings), and I’d assume a handful of those goalies would fit into a fan’s definition of “elite.” Yet these “elite” goalies haven’t led their teams to Cups. Why is that? The Wild are hardly getting ousted in these early exits because of Dubnyk. Could he be better? Sure. But they have proven time and again they’re a flawed team in the playoffs, not that they solely have a flawed goalie.