Confirmed Trade: [MIN/PIT] Jason Zucker for 2021 1st round pick, Alex Galchenyuk, and Calen Addison

[Empoleon8771]

Regardless of whether the Pens are able to, I have my doubts JR would do anything even mildly contentious.

If JR learns that he's eligible to keep his 2020 1st and trade his 2021 1st instead, I really don't see why he wouldn't do that. The 2020 draft is supposedly really strong and JR didn't even really want to trade the pick.

Even ignoring the potential of a draft lottery including good teams, the Penguins would have the 25th pick in the draft if they base it on point%. If the Penguins think they would pick later than 25th next year, which they only need to get to the 2nd round to do, JR would be dumb to trade this pick. It's the same thing that the Senators did with the Tkachuk pick.

 

[57special]

PIT would absolutely keep their 2020 1st if they can.They are the very definition of a " future is now" team. I could even see them trading the pick in order to get ehlp for their team now. MN would absolutely want to chose PIT's 2020 1st over PIT's 2021's 1st.
GM's have to think long term, but also live in the moment. A bad year can be the difference between them being fired or having a job.

 

[BondraTime]

Except we don't know. We have a fairly good idea, but that's not the same thing.

That's what makes it different than any other season in the draft era other than '05.

Of course it's different. It's the only time we have played parts of a season without finishing. 2005 never even started, it's just as different as any other year compared to this one in a different way.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

If JR learns that he's eligible to keep his 2020 1st and trade his 2021 1st instead, I really don't see why he wouldn't do that. The 2020 draft is supposedly really strong and JR didn't even really want to trade the pick.

Even ignoring the potential of a draft lottery including good teams, the Penguins would have the 25th pick in the draft if they base it on point%. If the Penguins think they would pick later than 25th next year, which they only need to get to the 2nd round to do, JR would be dumb to trade this pick. It's the same thing that the Senators did with the Tkachuk pick.

I understand what you're saying.

But also understand that we're talking about a GM that regularly goes well above and beyond what he has to in order to make other teams feel satisfied with a deal.

Of course it's different. It's the only time we have played parts of a season without finishing. 2005 never even started, it's just as different as any other year compared to this one in a different way.

Except it's not as different as every other year, because unlike those years and like 2005, it never finished either.

That means there were no conclusive standings or playoff seedings for any team.

 

[BondraTime]

I understand what you're saying.

But also understand that we're talking about a GM that regularly goes well above and beyond what he has to in order to make other teams feel satisfied with a deal.



Except it's not as different as every other year, because unlike those years and like 2005, it never finished either.

That means there were no conclusive standings or playoff seedings for any team.

There were no standings, at all, completely different than 85% of the season with standings 1-31.

There’s a reason the draft won’t be done the same as 2005, that’s because they aren’t similar and call for different actions.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

There were no standings, at all, completely different than 85% of the season with standings 1-31.

There’s a reason the draft won’t be done the same as 2005, that’s because they aren’t similar and call for different actions.

As I showed, this season is closer to 2005 than any other season during the draft era. They aren't identical, but they share some key characteristics that are worth considering in an unprecedented situation like this. Not finishing a season is a big deal.

Maybe a different kind of draft weighting system that accounts for the sort of reasonable deviation that could have occurred in the standings had it been able to finish.

 

[Tweed]

We know who is going to be finishing at the bottom of the league, and we know who will be at the top of the league.

Look at you!

Impressive!

 

[AKL]

As I showed, this season is closer to 2005 than any other season during the draft era. They aren't identical, but they share some key characteristics that are worth considering in an unprecedented situation like this. Not finishing a season is a big deal.

Maybe a different kind of draft weighting system that accounts for the sort of reasonable deviation that could have occurred in the standings had it been able to finish.

Which would reasonably preclude teams like Washington, St. Louis, Tampa, Boston, Pittsburgh, and other teams at the top of the league from being eligible for the lottery. I could see it extending it to ~20 teams, but no way should all 31 get a chance.

 

[BondraTime]

As I showed, this season is closer to 2005 than any other season during the draft era. They aren't identical, but they share some key characteristics that are worth considering in an unprecedented situation like this. Not finishing a season is a big deal.

Maybe a different kind of draft weighting system that accounts for the sort of reasonable deviation that could have occurred in the standings had it been able to finish.

Yes, which is the likely outcome. We know who the bottom and top teams are with ~10 games left in the season. Those at the top will receive the same odds minus a very small amount, and those placed in the playoffs will receive the % points lost at about 0.5% or less each. They will only be able to fall back 3 spots. The draft lottery will be much, much, much closer to every other year compared to 2005.

There will still be a draft lottery for the first 3 picks, there won’t be a draft put together 1-31 based on drawing balls like 2005.

 

[Tweed]

Which would reasonably preclude teams like Washington, St. Louis, Tampa, Boston, Pittsburgh, and other teams at the top of the league from being eligible for the lottery. I could see it extending it to ~20 teams, but no way should all 31 get a chance.

No way should all 30 teams have had a crack at Crosby in 2005... yet they got it!

 

[AKL]

No way should all 30 teams have had a crack at Crosby in 2005... yet they got it!

You need to let this argument die. This is a horrible justification, you yourself disagree with the premise, and two wrongs don’t make a right. Let it go.

 

[Tweed]

You need to let this argument die. This is a horrible justification, you yourself disagree with the premise, and two wrongs don’t make a right. Let it go.

Precedent. What's good for the goose is good for the gander. That's all I'm saying.

 

[AKL]

Precedent. What's good for the goose is good for the gander. That's all I'm saying.

There is no direct precedent for the situation we’re in now, so the solution won’t be the same.

2005 is not directly comparable.

 

[Empoleon8771]

There's also no comparable that says the NHL is arbitrarily going to give 2/3 of the league a chance at the lottery but tell the remaining 1/3 that they're too good to be eligible, after the good 1/3 already got f*cked out of playoff revenue and a potential playoff run.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

Which would reasonably preclude teams like Washington, St. Louis, Tampa, Boston, Pittsburgh, and other teams at the top of the league from being eligible for the lottery. I could see it extending it to ~20 teams, but no way should all 31 get a chance.

I don't think that's necessarily reasonable. Just because those 5 were at the top of the league doesn't mean they would have ended up that way.

If a draft were weighted based on the standings, those teams would necessarily have a smaller shot though.

Weighted draft 1 through 31, with descending odds (just how much would be the question). That would be both fair and get everyone invested in the draft.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

Yes, which is the likely outcome. We know who the bottom and top teams are with ~10 games left in the season. Those at the top will receive the same odds minus a very small amount, and those placed in the playoffs will receive the % points lost at about 0.5% or less each. They will only be able to fall back 3 spots. The draft lottery will be much, much, much closer to every other year compared to 2005.

There will still be a draft lottery for the first 3 picks, there won’t be a draft put together 1-31 based on drawing balls like 2005.

Nobody knows that.

The only way you can determine a "range of knowing" is to calculate where teams would be if they won all their remaining games vs. where they would be if they lost all their remaining games.

 

[Tweed]

There is no direct precedent for the situation we’re in now, so the solution won’t be the same.

2005 is not directly comparable.

I agree that it's not "identical". I disagree that it's not the closest comparable. And it's close enough (both being non-resultant seasons) that it should serve as the model from which the draft is determined. Especially given that some teams were treated very unfairly in the first instance, and they now find themselves in a position to potentially be the beneficiaries of that same system. It's what's owed them.

 

[CamPopplestone]

At this point I'd just laugh if they put 31 balls in the thing, one of each team, and Drew them to determine full draft order. Screw it, let's go lol
I honestly don't really care about hockey all that much with what's going on tbh.

 

[uncleben]

Which would reasonably preclude teams like Washington, St. Louis, Tampa, Boston, Pittsburgh, and other teams at the top of the league from being eligible for the lottery. I could see it extending it to ~20 teams, but no way should all 31 get a chance.

I disagree wholeheartedly.
None of these teams had locked a playoff spot, yet.

Pittsburgh, especially, being only 6 points from out of a playoff spot, it's completely within the realm of possibility of them going on a losing streak (that'd essentially be a five/six game losing streak, while the other teams maintain their records) and being bumped below wildcard. Then, they'd have a a shot at the lottery, and first overall.


The odds just need to be distributed accordingly.

 

[Digitalbooya]

The draft is supposed to help the less fortunate teams, not feed the top.

 

[Jerkbait]

The draft is supposed to help the less fortunate teams, not feed the top.

Luck of the draw.... but iam all for using the current strandings

 

[TheReelChuckFletcher]

If the season re-starts in July, as rumored, it's very possible that they delay the draft and UFA until September.

 

[Barnaby]

And I imagine I'll have to tell you this when the Penguins are able to keep their 1st this year. Maybe you should take your own advice.

I think a lot would depend on the terminology in the contract.

Does it say “Pitt retains their pick if they do not play in a playoff game?”

Or

“Pitt retains their pick if they miss the playoffs?” You can’t miss a pitch that never gets thrown.

In the end, I find it hard to believe Pitt gets the player and retains the pick... MAYBE Minn agrees to ship Pitt a mid round pick not to challenge the condition.

Obviously your pie in the sky is Pitt gets to retain their 1st and miraculously wins the lottery. That ain’t happening.

I do think there is a legit shot at some kind of playoff though so could be a non-issue.

 

[Barnaby]

As I showed, this season is closer to 2005 than any other season during the draft era. They aren't identical, but they share some key characteristics that are worth considering in an unprecedented situation like this. Not finishing a season is a big deal.

Maybe a different kind of draft weighting system that accounts for the sort of reasonable deviation that could have occurred in the standings had it been able to finish.

It would be terrible for the league if a team like TB won the lottery. I think it would be reasonable to do your something similar to your usual lottery - maybe include bubble teams if you want for the top few picks. Maybe playoff teams get worked in and can move a max of 8-10 slots. I’m just thinking off the top of my head, but you can’t have Boston picking ahead of Detroit. You can have a fan base suffer all year, get nothing to show for it, and be a year or more away from playoff contention while a contender further loads up. If no games were played or 15 games were played, but not 85%. You should be able to include some type of common sense deviation.

2005 was not a good look for the league and this would be 10x worse if the wrong team took the prize.

 

[Barnaby]

If the season re-starts in July, as rumored, it's very possible that they delay the draft and UFA until September.

This is probably the most likely scenario... they’d bank revenue, keep the fans/teams happy, and avoid draft conspiracy theories. Even in a crazy scenario where they just took the top 2 seeds in each division and played it out in North Dakota - I think they’ll work something out. It makes too much sense not to.