Confirmed Trade: [MIN/PIT] Jason Zucker for 2021 1st round pick, Alex Galchenyuk, and Calen Addison

[Barnaby]

Since we can’t make draft determinations based on 85% of a season, then how can we assign playoff positions. Throw 31 ping pong balls in the machine.

 

[alphabetical]

Since we can’t make draft determinations based on 85% of a season, then how can we assign playoff positions. Throw 31 ping pong balls in the machine.

85.12% of games have been played.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

It would be terrible for the league if a team like TB won the lottery. I think it would be reasonable to do your something similar to your usual lottery - maybe include bubble teams if you want for the top few picks. Maybe playoff teams get worked in and can move a max of 8-10 slots. I’m just thinking off the top of my head, but you can’t have Boston picking ahead of Detroit. You can have a fan base suffer all year, get nothing to show for it, and be a year or more away from playoff contention while a contender further loads up. If no games were played or 15 games were played, but not 85%. You should be able to include some type of common sense deviation.

2005 was not a good look for the league and this would be 10x worse if the wrong team took the prize.

Did any team have a playoff spot clinched?

 

[Arthur Morgan]

No way in hell a team close to making the playoffs should all sudden be included in the draft lottery. how is that fair to the teams that are actually bad? to all sudden have 31 teams with a chance to win 1st overall. complete joke.
end the season how it is, standings are the standings nothing changes. yeah it sucks for some but its a pandemic caused headache. I feel worse for the teams that traded their picks/prospects for upgrades on a cup run.

 

[AKL]

Did any team have a playoff spot clinched?

Would you be fine with just doing the draft order as reverse standings order?

I mean, Detroit was the only one that was officially eliminated from the playoffs, so it would only be fair that they’re the only team in the lottery, which would just give them the 1st pick anyway.

Now there’s no arbitrary cut off for the lottery, and teams that were bad and outside the playoffs with a chance to still make it aren’t rewarded in any way.

 

[Gurglesons]

Would you be fine with just doing the draft order as reverse standings order?

I mean, Detroit was the only one that was officially eliminated from the playoffs, so it would only be fair that they’re the only team in the lottery, which would just give them the 1st pick anyway.

Now there’s no arbitrary cut off for the lottery, and teams that were bad and outside the playoffs with a chance to still make it aren’t rewarded in any way.

No, and I guarantee other teams won’t either if the playoffs are cancelled

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

Would you be fine with just doing the draft order as reverse standings order?

I mean, Detroit was the only one that was officially eliminated from the playoffs, so it would only be fair that they’re the only team in the lottery, which would just give them the 1st pick anyway.

Now there’s no arbitrary cut off for the lottery, and teams that were bad and outside the playoffs with a chance to still make it aren’t rewarded in any way.

I don't follow that reasoning. The last place team doesn't automatically get the 1st overall even in a completed season.

 

[57special]

Lots do ideas being thrown around here, but if a team not in the bttom 15 gets a top 3 pick it would make an already screwed up situation more so.

The Zucker trade is probably a poor example of one that needs redress if the season is done. Pens will have him for 3 more seasons after this. It's the teams who traded assets for a player who is expiring who have more of an argument.

 

[2Pair]

Question for all the posters that can't seem to understand the logic of using the standings of an incomplete season to determine the draft order.

If the NHL returns and wants to go directly to the playoffs without finishing the final 10-15% of the regular season, would you be ok if the NHL just picked the 16 playoff teams at random? Every team gets an equal chance? Maybe weight the lottery so the teams with better records at least get a slight advantage to make the playoffs?

 

[Gurglesons]

Question for all the posters that can't seem to understand the logic of using the standings of an incomplete season to determine the draft order.

If the NHL returns and wants to go directly to the playoffs without finishing the final 10-15% of the regular season, would you be ok if the NHL just picked the 16 playoff teams at random? Every team gets an equal chance? Maybe weight the lottery so the teams with better records at least get a slight advantage to make the playoffs?

That isn’t the same thing at all. Standing determine who makes the playoffs. They also determine the draft lottery odds. If there are no playoffs why are we removing teams from draft lottery odds when historically the system is based around who did not make the playoffs?

 

[AKL]

No, and I guarantee other teams won’t either if the playoffs are cancelled

If your goal is the make every team happy, giving the top of the standings a chance at Lafreniere, Byfield, etc isn't the strategy either.

I don't follow that reasoning. The last place team doesn't automatically get the 1st overall even in a completed season.

Detroit would be the only team eligible for the lottery in this case, because they're the only team that was officially eliminated from the playoffs. Were there more teams eliminated, more teams would be eligible, and Detroit wouldn't necessary win the lottery and 1st overall. After that, do the order in reverse standings. It's the most "fair" and neutral option.

Again, the draft is not a reward for teams being bad. The NHL has actually taken steps to reduce the severity of tanking by reducing the benefits. Were the draft a reward for being bad, they wouldn't do that. It's a tool to increase parity and spread talent around the league. I'm sorry that you and other teams don't get their playoff runs and shots at the Cup, but that doesn't mean that you should qualify for the draft lottery, given the spirit and the intention of the draft. 85% of a season was played, and we saw which teams were clearly better than others.

So if you want to take out the arbitrary line drawing of trying to figure out who could have made the playoffs and figuring out, arbitrarily, what the odds should be for teams that were in a playoff position but still should have the chance, then the most fair way to every team is ordering them 1-31 based on points percentage and doing the draft in the reverse order. Then you're not rewarding any teams over the other, and the draft is still accomplishing what it is meant to do.

 

[AKL]

That isn’t the same thing at all. Standing determine who makes the playoffs. They also determine the draft lottery odds. If there are no playoffs why are we removing teams from draft lottery odds when historically the system is based around who did not make the playoffs?

We've heard in this thread that since no one actually clinched a spot in the playoffs, everyone should be eligible for the draft lottery. Well given that no one actually clinched, it means any team besides Detroit could have ended up making the playoffs, while a team at the top like Tampa or Pittsburgh missed. Therefore, using your logic, it makes complete sense to have a weighted system based on points percentage if the remainder of the regular season can't be played, but playoffs will be. It's the exact same thing you're advocating for in regards to the lottery.

If you're not okay with that, but you think those same teams like Pittsburgh, Tampa and more should have a chance at the lottery if there are no playoffs, it's only because you simply want your team to win the lottery. There's no fairness or reason included beyond that.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

Detroit would be the only team eligible for the lottery in this case, because they're the only team that was officially eliminated from the playoffs. Were there more teams eliminated, more teams would be eligible, and Detroit wouldn't necessary win the lottery and 1st overall. After that, do the order in reverse standings. It's the most "fair" and neutral option.

While Detroit was the worst team when the season halted, we can't know where they would have finished.

To simply gift them the 1st overall, against all the tweaks the league has put in place to avoid rewarding the worst team with an automatic 1st overall - after an incomplete season no less - would be contrary to everything they've tried to do to minimize tanking.

 

[AKL]

While Detroit was the worst team when the season halted, we can't know where they would have finished.

To simply gift them the 1st overall, against all the tweaks the league has put in place to avoid rewarding the worst team with an automatic 1st overall - after an incomplete season no less - would be contrary to everything they've tried to do to minimize tanking.

Detroit quite literally could not have finished above 31st place. We know exactly where they would have finished. If they won their final 11 games, they would have finished with 61 points. Ottawa, in 30th when the season halted, had 62.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

Detroit quite literally could not have finished above 31st place. We know exactly where they would have finished. If they won their final 11 games, they would have finished with 61 points. Ottawa, in 30th when the season halted, had 62.

I stand corrected. The rest of my point stands though.

The league has regularly taken steps to disincentivize tanking, but now they're just going to award it to Detroit outright based solely on their terrible season?

 

[AKL]

I stand corrected. The rest of my point stands though.

The league has regularly taken steps to disincentivize tanking, but now they're just going to award it to Detroit outright based solely on their terrible season?

The rest of your point isn’t relevant. We’re not gifting Detroit that pick because they were the worst. Your point was that since no one had officially clinched a playoff spot, everyone should be included in the lottery. Well that’s not in keeping with the spirit of the intention of the draft. The other edge of that sword, which would be far more in line with the drafts goal, is to only do the lottery with the teams that were officially eliminated. In this case, you don’t have to draw arbitrary lines or create arbitrary odds to win, because only Detroit would be eligible. No one is getting “rewarded” and no one is getting “punished” if you simply do reverse standings. It’s as neutral and fair as you can get given the circumstances, assuming no playoffs happen.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

The rest of your point isn’t relevant. We’re not gifting Detroit that pick because they were the worst. Your point was that since no one had officially clinched a playoff spot, everyone should be included in the lottery. Well that’s not in keeping with the spirit of the intention of the draft. The other edge of that sword, which would be far more in line with the drafts goal, is to only do the lottery with the teams that were officially eliminated. In this case, you don’t have to draw arbitrary lines or create arbitrary odds to win, because only Detroit would be eligible. No one is getting “rewarded” and no one is getting “punished” if you simply do reverse standings. It’s as neutral and fair as you can get given the circumstances, assuming no playoffs happen.

It's neither neutral nor fair. The decision to only include non-playoff teams in the lotto was made with the understanding that roughly half the league would at least have a shot at it. Simply giving it to Detroit runs counter to both the spirit of the draft rules and the anti-tanking tweaks that the league has regularly made.

 

[AKL]

It's neither neutral nor fair. The decision to only include non-playoff teams in the lotto was made with the understanding that roughly half the league would at least have a shot at it. Simply giving it to Detroit runs counter to both the spirit of the draft rules and the anti-tanking tweaks that the league has regularly made.

How are you talking about what’s counter to the spirit of the draft? You want to include perennial playoff teams that were well on their way to making it back.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

How are you talking about what’s counter to the spirit of the draft? You want to include perennial playoff teams that were well on their way to making it back.

"Well on their way" guarantees nothing, which is of course the entire point.

 

[Adam da bomb]

Works for Jets to limit # of teams.

 

[AKL]

"Well on their way" guarantees nothing, which is of course the entire point.

You aren't entitled to the lottery just because a once in a century health crisis shut the entire planet down. Detroit absolutely deserves one of those three picks, or even the first overall pick, more than Pittsburgh does, because they were a far worse team this season, and that's the point of the draft.

The simple fact is, while yes, other teams will lose out on their chance to get a top 3 pick (including my own, mind you), reverse standings is the compromise between ordering the standings by points% and only doing a draft with the bottom 15 teams, and giving every team, including teams that don't deserve a chance given the spirit and intention of the draft, arbitrary odds, and having a team like Pittsburgh draft Lafreniere or Washington draft Byfield.

In light of what the draft hopes to accomplish, there is not a single good reason that has been presented as to why those teams should have any balls in the lottery.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

You aren't entitled to the lottery just because a once in a century health crisis shut the entire planet down. Detroit absolutely deserves one of those three picks, or even the first overall pick, more than Pittsburgh does, because they were a far worse team this season, and that's the point of the draft.

Nobody's arguing that Detroit deserves a much better chance than a team like Pittsburgh, hence a weighted lotto system.

What they don't deserve is to have the 1st overall handed to them on a silver platter simply because they were the only team eliminated from playoff contention when the season was cut short.

The simple fact is, while yes, other teams will lose out on their chance to get a top 3 pick (including my own, mind you), reverse standings is the compromise between ordering the standings by points% and only doing a draft with the bottom 15 teams, and giving every team, including teams that don't deserve a chance given the spirit and intention of the draft, arbitrary odds, and having a team like Pittsburgh draft Lafreniere or Washington draft Byfield.

The odds would reflect their place in the standings. That's not arbitrary.

So I'm clear, what is the format you're arguing for?

In light of what the draft hopes to accomplish, there is not a single good reason that has been presented as to why those teams should have any balls in the lottery.

The reason is self-explanatory. The draft is reserved for non-playoff teams, and no team made the NHL playoffs this year.

Make the draft odds favour the worst teams, and have the odds get progressively worse as the teams get better.

 

[16thOverallSaveUs]

And I imagine I'll have to tell you this when the Penguins are able to keep their 1st this year. Maybe you should take your own advice.

I’ve said this before, but I hope the penguins are able to keep their 1st this year. If my team played like the penguins for the last month of the season, had it’s core players while into their thirties (actually, my team does have that), and was just one Crosby injury away from potentially plummeting, I wouldn’t take the chance that my 1st could end up being an unprotected lottery pick. Worst case scenario for MN, the pick is a late 1st like it was going to be this year, just a year later. Best case... well you know the best case.

 

[Empoleon8771]

I’ve said this before, but I hope the penguins are able to keep their 1st this year. If my team played like the penguins for the last month of the season, had it’s core players while into their thirties (actually, my team does have that), and was just one Crosby injury away from potentially plummeting, I wouldn’t take the chance that my 1st could end up being an unprotected lottery pick. Worst case scenario for MN, the pick is a late 1st like it was going to be this year, just a year later. Best case... well you know the best case.

Crosby missed like 30 games this year and the Penguins were globetrotting with him out of the lineup. The Penguins went 18-6-4 in the 28 games Crosby was out from mid-November to mid-January this year. The entire Malkin and Crosby era has been defined by the team consistently playing well even without Crosby or Malkin, if not both Crosby and Malkin.

We've been hearing for years about how the Penguins are suddenly going to fall off and become the Kings or Hawks and it hasn't happened yet. It's not a smart bet to assume that's going to start now. The Penguins aren't good because of Crosby, Malkin and Letang, they're good because they have an absolutely fantastic supporting cast for that older core.

 

[Empoleon8771]

By the way, if you want an actual draft lottery compromise, you'd make it that teams are only limited at jumping say 10-15 spots in the draft and the spots would be based on point%. This way, playoff teams can still get higher draft picks, with the Penguins potentially being able to pick 10th-15th overall, but they're not in the Lafrierne/Byfield running. This keeps it so that teams who are eligible to get 1st overall can get 1st overall, but teams who missed out on the playoffs can still get a higher pick back due to the playoffs not happening.

That's similar to how the draft lottery used to be, where the winner jumped up 4 spots but nothing else changed. Maybe keep the lottery the exact same, but the team who won 3rd overall jumps up 7 spots, the team that won 2nd overall jumps up 10 spots and the team who won 1st overall jumps up 12 spots or something like that.