Friedman: Miller extension unlikely with Canucks, timeline doesnt fit, and trade offers are going to be too good to pass up

[Peter Griffin]

In reality, if you really want to pin down the teams that most likely will be in play, focus on the teams that are looking for long term piece in Miller AND that can conceivably afford him. Canucks fans don't like doing this because it makes them realize that they don't really have this long list of amazing options like they think they do.

I think there still could be a handful of teams interested in acquiring Miller this off-season and offering him a contract extension. Boston, Columbus, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, New Jersey, Buffalo, Los Angeles are all teams that could be interested in adding him and could offer him a long term extension. Then you have the pure contenders who would actually see value in a full year of Miller at just over $2.5M, where else will you find a player of his calibre at that cap hit?

 

[Rowlet]

I have a feeling he gets moved as there’s too much smoke around the Canucks moving a RW. Boeser’s contract situation complicates things. There are other moving pieces such as Kuzmenko and/or getting another RW back in a Miller trade but I think Garland will be the odd man out. I don’t agree with it (just as I don’t agree with moving Miller over Horvat) but I suspect it’s what will happen.

There's smoke with everyone right now, it's likely just the media fanning flames. The more likely plan imo is to trade longer term lower cap hits like Pearson or Dickinson to teams with shorter term higher cap hit players like JVR who could be looking to make moves in FA.

 

[grentthealien]

Out of curiosity where do people rank J.T. Miller currently among forwards in the league? He definitely doesn’t have the name value that others do but the dude has been scoring above a point per game since coming to Vancouver and was a point shy of 100 this year, it’s not like the Canucks have been a world beater of a team either.

As a Canucks fan I’m kind of split on keeping him or not. He is a heart and soul player who consistently produces with everyone. If he wants to leave that would make the decision a whole lot either. I really want to see Pettersson take the next step before I feel comfortable trading are only point per game forward and while the return may be a great for him I can’t say the idea of another re-build is all that appealing, I would want players that could immediately make an impact or are close to making one rather than prospects that are years away from making it.

 

[dbaz]

Would the Canes be a potential suitor after bouncing out again? They’ve proven to be aggressive.

Watching their playoffs, I would think so. I saw a lack of going to the hard areas and competitiveness from some of their forwards. (maybe its injuries we will find out about). But I feel he would butt heads with Brind'Amour for some reason

They also have Trocheck, Niederetter and tdl acquisition on Domi coming off books. Necas is the main rfa they would re-sign. Maybe Deangelo if hes still cheap.

They have the cap, they have upcoming players to fill their roster spots + extra to trade.

I dont see the Canucks getting a Jarvis or Necas back. Maybe a Drury/Morrow +.. but depends what Car does with their right side. Both Deangelo and Bear are RFAs

 

[LuLover96]

Watching their playoffs, I would think so. I saw a lack of going to the hard areas and competitiveness from some of their forwards. (maybe its injuries we will find out about). But I feel he would butt heads with Brind'Amour for some reason

They also have Trocheck, Niederetter and tdl acquisition on Domi coming off books. Necas is the main rfa they would re-sign. Maybe Deangelo if hes still cheap.

They have the cap, they have upcoming players to fill their roster spots + extra to trade.

I dont see the Canucks getting a Jarvis or Necas back. Maybe a Drury/Morrow +.. but depends what Car does with their right side. Both Deangelo and Bear are RFAs

What about them making a massive splash, getting Myers and Miller for a combined $5.625 million? They'd be considered heavy favourites next year.

Teravainen - Aho - Jarvis (?)
Svechnikov - Miller - Necas(?)
Kotkaniemi - Staal - Fast

Slavin - Pesce
Skjei - Myers

That's one hell of a group.

 

[innitfam]

If Miller breaks 90 points again I'll eat the costume in my profile pic.

Quoted for future reference

 

[RandV]

Bingo. This guy gets it.

Canucks fans haven't done such a great job at differentiating or stratifying the teams that are interested in him. They think all of the teams are willing to pay the same prices and have the same intention. They forget that some teams will want to trade for him as a long term piece while others want him strictly as a rental. The teams that want him as a long term piece will pay more, while the teams that purely want him as a rental are only looking to get him for a rental price.

Canucks fans can tell themselves that they'll have so many teams interested in him but when push comes to shove, they'll only be a small handful of serious buyers that will most likely want him as a long term piece.

Teams that are interested in him purely as a rental will get outbid and they'll immediately fall off the board. In the end, they'll only be a few teams that will be in the mix for Miller.

I mean, some of that's obvious, but this thread was started on the media report (although maybe just speculative) that there will be a hot market for Miller this summer. I'd also like to point out while some teams could trade for Miller with an extension in place or in mind while others could only acquire him as a rental, for the latter that is their problem and not Vancouver's. Contenders will commit heavily if they think they have a shot at winning the Cup, and if the difference between having Miller or not having Miller is paying more than the trade deadline rental price I'm sure some of them will step up.

 

[wintersej]

Quoted for future reference

I'll have to think on wine pairings.

 

[wonton15]

Watching their playoffs, I would think so. I saw a lack of going to the hard areas and competitiveness from some of their forwards. (maybe its injuries we will find out about). But I feel he would butt heads with Brind'Amour for some reason

They also have Trocheck, Niederetter and tdl acquisition on Domi coming off books. Necas is the main rfa they would re-sign. Maybe Deangelo if hes still cheap.

They have the cap, they have upcoming players to fill their roster spots + extra to trade.

I dont see the Canucks getting a Jarvis or Necas back. Maybe a Drury/Morrow +.. but depends what Car does with their right side. Both Deangelo and Bear are RFAs

I see Carolina as a dark horse suitor for Miller. Maybe not Jarvis but Necas could be a decent swap for both sides.

 

[Tufted Titmouse]

I see Carolina as a dark horse suitor for Miller. Maybe not Jarvis but Necas could be a decent swap for both sides.

This is much more realistic than the "2nd overall" or "Newhook++" proposals we saw last week. Necas does seem like someone who Carolina could make available for a big upgrade offensively.

 

[KevinRedkey]

What on top of 7th overall would Vancouver want from the Sens?

Lets assume they allow the Sens to talk to Miller and work out a contract under 10.000 beforehand.

 

[EverTheCynic]

What on top of 7th overall would Vancouver want from the Sens?

Lets assume they allow the Sens to talk to Miller and work out a contract under 10.000 beforehand.

I don’t know anything about the kids in this draft, I just know that people are saying it’s super weak.

So trading for high picks just isn’t ideal. Ottawa is gonna want value based on the number 7, Canucks would want value based on the quality of player available.

Maybe if there is a guy scouting really likes at 7, perhaps a deal could be made on draft day. But you probably won’t like the ask.

I’d want the 7th and Thomson as a base.

 

[Tufted Titmouse]

I don’t know anything about the kids in this draft, I just know that people are saying it’s super weak.

So trading for high picks just isn’t ideal. Ottawa is gonna want value based on the number 7, Canucks would want value based on the quality of player available.

Maybe if there is a guy scouting really likes at 7, perhaps a deal could be made on draft day. But you probably won’t like the ask.

I’d want the 7th and Thomson as a base.

For a 1 year rental?

 

[EverTheCynic]

For a 1 year rental?

He said under the condition Ottawa and Miller could work out a contract beforehand.

 

[UrbanImpact]

He said under the condition Ottawa and Miller could work out a contract beforehand.

It would have to a be a handshake deal because Miller is not allowed to sign an extension until July 13th I believe which is of course after the draft.

Realistically, Miller will be traded for a 2023 1st round pick not 2022.

However to answer your question, I think a deal around the 7th would look something like this:

To Sens:
Miller ( extended)

To Canucks
7th overall
39th overall
A/B level prospect

I think people are undervaluing the advantage that Miller will play this season at 5.6 mil before his extension kicks in.

 

[BCNate]

Depending on what happens with Patrice Bergeron, I could see Boston pushing pretty hard for JT Miller. I'm also assuming that Debrusk still wants out.

Maybe something around:

Miller @50%
Garland
2023 2nd

for
Carlo
DeBrusk
Lysell
2023 1st

 

[Jmo89]

Would love to have him but he's going to cost a ton. Perfect way to start the Vancouver retool (rebuild?) though.

 

[Hammman]

Depending on what happens with Patrice Bergeron, I could see Boston pushing pretty hard for JT Miller. I'm also assuming that Debrusk still wants out.

Maybe something around:

Miller @50%
Garland
2023 2nd

for
Carlo
DeBrusk
Lysell
2023 1st

Too much on Vancouver's end IMO. Take out Debrusk and Garland.

 

[Frankie Blueberries]

Depending on what happens with Patrice Bergeron, I could see Boston pushing pretty hard for JT Miller. I'm also assuming that Debrusk still wants out.

Maybe something around:

Miller @50%
Garland
2023 2nd

for
Carlo
DeBrusk
Lysell
2023 1st

This isn’t great for Vancouver IMO - mainly due to positional needs for the team.

Swapping Garland for DeBrusk is a downgrade and DeBrusk carries a similar cap hit ($4 mill for two more years).

So it’s Miller @ 50% and likely a high/mid 2nd round pick for Carlo, Lysell, and a mid/late 1st. I like Lysell a lot, but Carlo is very slow and poor offensively - he wouldn’t be the upgrade Canucks fans think (closer to a younger Schenn type). A late 1st doesnt make up the value when the Canucks’ biggest need is rebuilding their defence.

 

[Cogburn]

Yeah I misread your post as AND DeBrusk AND Beecher AND a 2nd. My bad. I think we are at that shoulder shrug point. There is probably something involving Carlo+ that could be worked out, but if we agree on something another Bruins or Canucks fan (or both) will come in and disagree. I personally would do Carlo + 1st + non-Lysell prospect whether Bergeron is back or not. Beyond that, Bergeron’s choice just effects the calculus way too much. Losing Bergeron and replacing him with Miller AND sacrificing a major roster player AND the Bruins best future assets is just shooting yourself in the foot.

While I don't disagree about how both sides have kind of dug their heels in and will can't agree here, I do think we can find better than the offer provided. This of course isn't a knock against the players involved, but I think the market for Millers services will bare more.

The Bruins situation is a little more of a fit for Miller (in terms of play, not necessarily for the teams involved) but I've looked at it as Bergeron+Carlo being replaced by Miller and who ever can replace some of Carlo's play at what ever the cap savings is. Lindholm helps cushion the loss of Carlo, but I can relate to your concerns here.

But I agree we still have an almost futile to cross gap (due to individuals on either side) with value here.

 

[Taluss]

What on top of 7th overall would Vancouver want from the Sens?

Lets assume they allow the Sens to talk to Miller and work out a contract under 10.000 beforehand.

Why would Sens target Miller?

 

[RandV]

Why would Sens target Miller?

I have no idea if they would or not but it's not unusual for a team in a position like that to target a guy like Miller. Depends on whether or not they consider the rebuilding 'done' or not and if they want to start focusing on their young team winning, Miller would be a solid guy to add to the forward group, and to help things they have no existing bad long term contracts so could easily afford extending him.

...Though I really don't think Ottawa is ready to do that yet, or that this is where where Miller would want to sign his next contract.

 

[EverTheCynic]

This isn’t great for Vancouver IMO - mainly due to positional needs for the team.

Swapping Garland for DeBrusk is a downgrade and DeBrusk carries a similar cap hit ($4 mill for two more years).

So it’s Miller @ 50% and likely a high/mid 2nd round pick for Carlo, Lysell, and a mid/late 1st. I like Lysell a lot, but Carlo is very slow and poor offensively - he wouldn’t be the upgrade Canucks fans think (closer to a younger Schenn type). A late 1st doesnt make up the value when the Canucks’ biggest need is rebuilding their defence.

You’re undervaluing Carlo.

In a vacuum he isn’t a top pairing defender. But he was great when he played with Krug. Who was at the time maybe the best puck mover in the league. Carlo really settled into that role, playing the shutdown partner to the mover.

So he’s our top pairing defenseman. That’s a massive hole in our lineup we wouldn’t have to think about for the next 8-10 years. Our top pairing is finished.

That’s huge. There’s not a whole ton of guys who fit exactly what we are looking for. With playstyle, age gap, and availability.

Carlo is a really big piece for us. He has a lot of value.

 

[Cogburn]

Why would Sens target Miller?

Plot convenience?

You’re undervaluing Carlo.

In a vacuum he isn’t a top pairing defender. But he was great when he played with Krug. Who was at the time maybe the best puck mover in the league. Carlo really settled into that role, playing the shutdown partner to the mover.

So he’s our top pairing defenseman. That’s a massive hole in our lineup we wouldn’t have to think about for the next 8-10 years. Our top pairing is finished.

That’s huge. There’s not a whole ton of guys who fit exactly what we are looking for. With playstyle, age gap, and availability.

Carlo is a really big piece for us. He has a lot of value.

I agree with everything you've said here, but I am wary of his concussion history. It's by no means a deal killer, and I don't think it's likely (and trade or not, I hope it's not) that he is any more likely to get another concussion, but it's a nagging concern in the back of my mind whenever we're discussing his acquisition to Vancouver.

 

[Whitebear]

If I’m the Canucks, I’m going hard after Byram.
JT Miller @ 50% + whatever it takes - even a first rounder. That kid is going to be a stud