Player Discussion: Mikhail Sergachev - Part 2

[NatoGhost]

Do you really give up on Sergachev after a single down season (mere 33 GP actually)? He is a 25 year old, big, well skating PMD playing more than 20 minutes every game. At this age he has already played in 475 regular season and almost 100 playoff games (98). He had 64 points last season. He is on pace for 58 points this season without PP1 time this time.

For all we know he could just have been playing injured, doesn’t get much sleep with the baby they got in the offseason or have to deal with other family issues (his home country is at war). Or it’s just the fact that the entire team stinks (stank?).

Also, who is better than him (now and potential) and available?

He still seems likes he's just a dumb player and he is what he is at this point. A good puck moving defenseman but not a smart player.

 

[These Are The Days]

Do you really give up on Sergachev after a single down season (mere 33 GP actually)? He is a 25 year old, big, well skating PMD playing more than 20 minutes every game. At this age he has already played in 475 regular season and almost 100 playoff games (98). He had 64 points last season. He is on pace for 58 points this season without PP1 time this time.

For all we know he could just have been playing injured, doesn’t get much sleep with the baby they got in the offseason or have to deal with other family issues (his home country is at war). Or it’s just the fact that the entire team stinks (stank?).

Also, who is better than him (now and potential) and available?

Less a down year in my assessment and more like he peaked quickly and we haven't really seen him improve in 3 or 4 years. What is his biggest accomplishment? Eating a shitload of PP time in a season where Hedman was never healthy? Even then it was sullied by more shorthanded goals than I have ever seen in my life. That, *THAT* was when I started making an assessment and I feel very let down ever since. If he wasn't making over $8 million a year I wouldn't have a word to say right now. I would say he's fine. But he is what he is and I don't want the Lightning married at this price clip anymore. Unless something changes dramatically we are paying a guy $8.5 million to score 45 points a year and have fights and still need a babysitter defensively

We've tried him literally everywhere this season and it did nothing to help.

 

[These Are The Days]

And for what it's worth. To everyone. If I turn out to be wrong, feel free to dunk on me over it for the rest of living time. I WANT to be wrong. That's my dream scenario. Right now I just don't think I am.

 

[RussianGuyovich]

i think it's weird that serge isnt even playing but posters still want to talk about him...almost like....they love him. and sometimes posters can be shy and insecure, afraid of rejection. perhaps they are unsure about how serge feels about them.

but serge loves you, poster.

 

[Stammertime91]

Do you really give up on Sergachev after a single down season (mere 33 GP actually)? He is a 25 year old, big, well skating PMD playing more than 20 minutes every game. At this age he has already played in 475 regular season and almost 100 playoff games (98). He had 64 points last season. He is on pace for 58 points this season without PP1 time this time.

For all we know he could just have been playing injured, doesn’t get much sleep with the baby they got in the offseason or have to deal with other family issues (his home country is at war). Or it’s just the fact that the entire team stinks (stank?).

Also, who is better than him (now and potential) and available?

Agree with the sentiment but disagree with the idea of giving up. If anything, we gave up an 8.5M cap slot to a player that hasn't been missed. If he comes back and the needle doesn't move or we revert back to what we were, I think that polarizes what @These Are The Days is saying.

On the flipside, if we trade him;

1. Who replaces him? Are we adding to the backend or getting a top 6 forward?

2. How long until that pisses off Kucherov? If he fired shots at Killorn years ago, I imagine he'd have words or an attitude, even as a pro and competitor, to express discontent.

 

[Sky04]

Do you really give up on Sergachev after a single down season (mere 33 GP actually)? He is a 25 year old, big, well skating PMD playing more than 20 minutes every game. At this age he has already played in 475 regular season and almost 100 playoff games (98). He had 64 points last season. He is on pace for 58 points this season without PP1 time this time.

For all we know he could just have been playing injured, doesn’t get much sleep with the baby they got in the offseason or have to deal with other family issues (his home country is at war). Or it’s just the fact that the entire team stinks (stank?).

Also, who is better than him (now and potential) and available?

What's the point of having Sergachev and Hedman? They're redundant and will both cost big money, Sergachev could get a far greater return given his age.

If we move on from Hedman, what team is winning anything with Serg as their #1?

 

[RussianGuyovich]

What's the point of having Sergachev and Hedman? They're redundant and will both cost big money, Sergachev could get a far greater return given his age.

If we move on from Hedman, what team is winning anything with Serg as their #1?

If we give up on either one of them, what are we winning? I’m not against the “stay the course” ideology but if we are trading either serge or hedman we are giving up. And as a fan of the team, I’d rather give up the asset that is downward trending.

Duncan Keith was 38 when he retired. And he was arguably trash for the last 4 years of that. I don’t think that Keith was as good as hedman offensively. but he was a smooth skating defenseman which is a nice comparison.

 

[RDTBay4]

Am I reading his contract information correctly?

He has no trade protection until next season?

If so, deal him.

 

[Point21]

Am I reading his contract information correctly?

He has no trade protection until next season?

If so, deal him.

correct, his NTC probably kicks in july 1st or right around draft day

 

[OffBy1]

Serge has a lot of talent to go along with his blunders. I wonder if his problems this year have been with the new defensive system as the whole team struggled for the entire first half of the season. Serge isn't the only one, Perbix looks like a different guy this year.

Of Serge, Cirelli, and Cernak, Serge is the one with the most potential to live up to his contract in my opinion (because Cirelli lacks the offensive talent and Cernak's health issues). He took a step forward last year before this year's defensive scheme got Blashill'd. I'm not for trading him. though part of that might be cause I haven't watched him try to make a play with the puck on his backhand in our zone lately

 

[Rschmitz]

Near 0% Chance Sergachev is traded after signing an 8 year deal

 

[Sky04]

Serge has a lot of talent to go along with his blunders. I wonder if his problems this year have been with the new defensive system as the whole team struggled for the entire first half of the season. Serge isn't the only one, Perbix looks like a different guy this year.

Of Serge, Cirelli, and Cernak, Serge is the one with the most potential to live up to his contract in my opinion (because Cirelli lacks the offensive talent and Cernak's health issues). He took a step forward last year before this year's defensive scheme got Blashill'd. I'm not for trading him. though part of that might be cause I haven't watched him try to make a play with the puck on his backhand in our zone lately

Wrong, Cernak is already playing his worth or extremely close to it. 5M for a #3 man who plays 20mins a night in every single top defensive situation is already worth 5M is today's market. Cernak takes the top match-ups, the most defensive zone starts, and is the top PK choice for the team,
How anyone thinks he isn't worth 5M is beyond me, especially on a team like ours, guys like Ian Cole get 3M year in and out. Cernak already ranks near the top for guys in his role. Sergachev is 12th highest paid defenseman in the league at 8.5M, is he going to play to that level consistently?

In today's game if you gamble with the right player you can get production from a lot of guys, guys who are good defensively are the ones team hold onto.

 

[Rschmitz]

Wrong, Cernak is already playing his worth or extremely close to it. 5M for a #3 man who plays 20mins a night in every single top defensive situation is already worth 5M is today's market. Cernak takes the top match-ups, the most defensive zone starts, and is the top PK choice for the team. How anyone thinks he isn't worth 5M is beyond me, especially on a team like ours, guys like Ian Cole get 3M year in and out. In his salary class, Cernak is probably a top-3 defenseman behind Slavin (5.3M) and Theordore (5.2M).

In today's game if you gamble with the right player you can get production from a lot of guys, guys who are good defensively are the ones team hold onto.

Health is Cernak's only real issue

 

[Sky04]

Health is Cernak's only real issue

I get that but outside of normal wear and tear from guys in his role, where has he had any major health issue? From a flying elbow to the head? Before last years playoffs he played in 71/73 possible playoff games, Cernak's worth has definitely been shown in playoff time as well, he had a significant primary role in all 3 runs, you can't say the same about Sergachev thus far.

 

[Rschmitz]

I get that but outside of normal wear and tear from guys in his role, where has he had any major health issue? From a flying elbow to the head? Before last years playoffs he played in 71/73 possible playoff games, Cernak's worth has definitely been shown in playoff time, you can't say the same about Sergachev thus far.

Like chronic issues? Hopefully none, but he misses games, a lot more than typical for guys in his role.

I wear Eric Cernak underwear to bed because I'm his biggest fan but you are talking about his contract value and there really shouldn't be any argument that playing fewer games has to be factored into all of that.

Freak occurrences of a flying elbows aside, he was sacrificing his body too much through shot blocking and hopefully moving forward he picks his spots a little bit better.

 

[Sky04]

Like chronic issues? Hopefully none, but he misses games, a lot more than typical for guys in his role.

View attachment 807279

I wear Eric Cernak underwear to bed because I'm his biggest fan but you are talking about his contract value and there really shouldn't be any argument that playing fewer games has to be factored into all of that.

View attachment 807284

Freak occurrences of a flying elbows aside, he was sacrificing his body too much through shot blocking and hopefully moving forward he picks his spots a little bit better.

So he's too much of a man and needs to tone it down. But yeah a little more games than we'd like so yes health is his biggest barrier, in terms of actual on ice play he's easily worth it.

 

[Rschmitz]

So he's too much of a man and needs to tone it down. But yeah a little more games than we'd like so yes health is his biggest barrier, in terms of actually on ice play he's easily worth it.

Right, a healthy Cernak is a top 3 RHD in this league and those don't grow on trees. 5M is a bargain if he can stay healthy.

How does Cernak's deal compare to the one Sergachev signed? I don't feel like going to bed angry by analyzing that albatross of a contract. Like 3 or 4 years of that he would have been under team control anyways

 

[OffBy1]

Of Serge, Cirelli, and Cernak, Serge is the one with the most potential to live up to his contract in my opinion (because Cirelli lacks the offensive talent and Cernak's health issues).

Wrong, Cernak is already playing his worth or extremely close to it. 5M for a #3 man who plays 20mins a night in every single top defensive situation is already worth 5M is today's market. Cernak takes the top match-ups, the most defensive zone starts, and is the top PK choice for the team,
How anyone thinks he isn't worth 5M is beyond me, especially on a team like ours, guys like Ian Cole get 3M year in and out. Cernak already ranks near the top for guys in his role. Sergachev is 12th highest paid defenseman in the league at 8.5M, is he going to play to that level consistently?

In today's game if you gamble with the right player you can get production from a lot of guys, guys who are good defensively are the ones team hold onto.

Not sure how you thought that was the point I was making, but it wasn't at all. "Cernak's health issues" as in he's not living up to his contract if he's injured all the time. Maybe that's a poor way for me to put it, but no where did I say the problem was Cernak's ability where I specifically pointed that out with Cirelli.

 

[Sky04]

Not sure how you thought that was the point I was making, but it wasn't at all. "Cernak's health issues" as in he's not living up to his contract if he's injured all the time. Maybe that's a poor way for me to put it, but no where did I say the problem was Cernak's ability where I specifically pointed that out with Cirelli.

Are you expecting Cernak to miss half a season every year? You said Sergachev is the most likely to match his contract out of the 3, which is not the case because Cernak pretty much does with every game he plays. That's not the case for Sergachev because even if he is healthy he definitely doesn't play like an 8.5m defenseman regularly.

 

[Rschmitz]

Are you expecting Cernak to miss half a season every year? You said Sergachev is the most likely to match his contract out of the 3, which is not the case because Cernak pretty much does with every game he plays. That's not the case for Sergachev because even if he is healthy he definitely doesn't play like an 8.5m defenseman regularly.

Contract value aside, in general players don't become more robust as they age. Even without a single chronic issue, if you continue to stack minor injury after minor injury players tend to wear down. The NHL is littered with guys who played a Cernak style of game, with fewer injuries, and fell apart at 30.

I'm certainly not cheering for that to happen but objectively I think we have to concede that if he continues to play his heavy style of game in the regular season, that there is a distinct possibility that he only plays 50% of his game on average.

Put him in bubble wrap and save him for the playoffs. Like you said that is where his true value is

 

[RussianGuyovich]

I get that but outside of normal wear and tear from guys in his role, where has he had any major health issue? From a flying elbow to the head? Before last years playoffs he played in 71/73 possible playoff games, Cernak's worth has definitely been shown in playoff time as well, he had a significant primary role in all 3 runs, you can't say the same about Sergachev thus far.

Playoffs are cool. cernak has never been able to play a complete season in the nhl and averages 20+ lost games a season to injury. Just lmao at anyone who doesn’t see him as injury prone.

I like cernak. But his health is problematic.

 

[OffBy1]

Are you expecting Cernak to miss half a season every year? You said Sergachev is the most likely to match his contract out of the 3, which is not the case because Cernak pretty much does with every game he plays. That's not the case for Sergachev because even if he is healthy he definitely doesn't play like an 8.5m defenseman regularly.

He has missed 28% of the games in his previous 5 years, so that actually doesn't sound like that big of a stretch does it? The most games he's played in a regular season so far is 70.

Repeated injuries can diminish a player's ability. Other people on this forum have pointed out he's less physical now because of his many past injuries. What I half expect, but of course no one can predict, is he'll retire with something like 3 years left on that 8 year contract if his occurrences of injuries continues. He's already had two this year.

My mention of Cernak in my original post was observational and an extrapolation. It was in no way meant to criticize Cernak for his injuries which he can't control, or say he's not worth 5 mil.

The actual point of my post was that Serge showed growth last year - despite the consistent mental blunders - and before struggling this year, and also because he's had few health problems, I think he has the best chance of grow into his salary over 8 years and we may regret trading him. He's probably only behind prime Hedman in terms of physical talent and that's not easy to find on the blueline.

 

[DrMartinVanNostrand]

Playoffs are cool. cernak has never been able to play a complete season in the nhl and averages 20+ lost games a season to injury. Just lmao at anyone who doesn’t see him as injury prone.

View attachment 807461

I like cernak. But his health is problematic.

Just for the sake of accuracy, he's averaged 15 games missed per season in each full season during that time span you have there. We played 70 games in 2019-'20 before COVID, not 82.

 

[These Are The Days]

We use this thread to not once dare pencil this guy over Hedman in a lineup (despite being paid more) and to talk about Cernak's injury history.

We have reached the golden age of HF Lightning enlightenment

 

[RDTBay4]

We could fill 3 holes with this wanna be model's contract.

Learn Spanish, put on a dress and whatever the f*** else you want. Goodbye you clown.