Blue Jays Discussion: Midway point in the season and things don't look.. Ugh.. Good

[ToneDog]

I would be surprised if Biagini doesn't start the 2018 season in the rotation.

Bob Elliott is throwing Osuna's name into the starters ring.


Elliott: Osuna should start for the Blue Jays

Bob Elliott from the Canadian Baseball Network joined Scott MacArthur and talked about possible untouchables on the Jays roster. Bob weighed in on Roberto Osuna's future as a closer and what the Jays should do with Josh Donaldson.

http://www.tsn.ca/radio/audio/elliott-osuna-should-start-for-the-blue-jays-1.808666

 

[Discoverer]

Bob Elliott is throwing Osuna's name into the starters ring.


Elliott: Osuna should start for the Blue Jays

Bob Elliott from the Canadian Baseball Network joined Scott MacArthur and talked about possible untouchables on the Jays roster. Bob weighed in on Roberto Osuna's future as a closer and what the Jays should do with Josh Donaldson.

http://www.tsn.ca/radio/audio/elliott-osuna-should-start-for-the-blue-jays-1.808666

That one's a huge longshot.

 

[hockeywiz542]

 

[stickty111]

Is next years draft expected to be strong?

 

[Bad News Benning]

Is next years draft expected to be strong?

nobody knows the answer to that for another 5-10 years. baseball drafts are much different than sports like hockey, basketball, or football.

Hard to really consider any baseball draft "strong" or "weak" because there is such a large pool of players every year. The difference in talent from year to year is very minor. You might have a draft one year that is strong in one area but weak in another but it usually balances out like most things in baseball.

 

[Discoverer]

Is next years draft expected to be strong?

While I don't know the answer, this is a good time for the latest reminder that you can't trade picks in baseball (aside from competitive balance picks), if that's what you're thinking.

 

[Discoverer]

nobody knows the answer to that for another 5-10 years. baseball drafts are much different than sports like hockey, basketball, or football.

Hard to really consider any baseball draft "strong" or "weak" because there is such a large pool of players every year. The difference in talent from year to year is very minor. You might have a draft one year that is strong in one area but weak in another but it usually balances out like most things in baseball.

Yeah, the only thing that really changes from year to year is the elite, top end talent in the first few picks.

 

[metafour]

nobody knows the answer to that for another 5-10 years. baseball drafts are much different than sports like hockey, basketball, or football.

Hard to really consider any baseball draft "strong" or "weak" because there is such a large pool of players every year. The difference in talent from year to year is very minor. You might have a draft one year that is strong in one area but weak in another but it usually balances out like most things in baseball.

No, baseball drafts are judged by the talent available within the first 20 or so picks. There is easily noticeable differences within those picks. Strong and weak drafts absolutely exist, although most years end up being about average. It is still too early to say anything for next year as so much depends on what happens with the college pitching in their senior years as well as the general shakeup that can happen within the HS ranks.

 

[Bad News Benning]

No, baseball drafts are judged by the talent available within the first 20 or so picks. There is easily noticeable differences within those picks. Strong and weak drafts absolutely exist, although most years end up being about average. It is still too early to say anything for next year as so much depends on what happens with the college pitching in their senior years as well as the general shakeup that can happen within the HS ranks.

You can head into a hockey or basketball draft and tell right away that it's strong or weak or average in most cases. Baseball is one massive question mark where even the highest picks bust pretty frequently. The guys who end up being the best players are usually afterthoughts on draft day that are given very little attention. Bo Bichette was a relative nobody in baseball circles a year ago and now he might end up BA minor league player of the year. Most of the players drafted ahead of Bo will be lucky to make it to AAA.

 

[metafour]

You can head into a hockey or basketball draft and tell right away that it's strong or weak or average in most cases. Baseball is one massive question mark where even the highest picks bust pretty frequently. The guys who end up being the best players are usually afterthoughts on draft day that are given very little attention. Bo Bichette was a relative nobody in baseball circles a year ago and now he might end up BA minor league player of the year. Most of the players drafted ahead of Bo will be lucky to make it to AAA.

You are talking out of your ass. There is a very clear correlation between expected WAR and draft position; with the top 5 picks producing much more value than any other picks. Yes, **** happens in baseball, it doesn't mean that its all this random crap-shoot. Your Bo Bichette example doesn't even work as Bichette actually declined offers to get drafted higher as per his own words. He was absolutely a known talent, albeit a divisive one that went well beyond baseball and into things like the fact that some teams were put off by what was argued as snobby attitude.

Strength in a baseball draft is known as well, maybe not so much as in other sports wherein players are much more developed with regards to how good they will ultimately be, but its still there.

 

[theaub]

Another blister for Sanchez? lmao time to pack it in

 

[Anthrax442]

This season has been so painful.

 

[trellaine201]

Another blister for Sanchez? lmao time to pack it in

Really? Let's call him Al

 

[Cor]

Sanchez shouldn't see the rotation for the rest of the year. Once this one heals, stick him in a relief role

 

[Swervin81]

Another blister for Sanchez? lmao time to pack it in

It's getting rather tiresome seeing an ace of ours keep falling victim to this leaguewide juiced ball blister pandemic while Manfred tweedles his thumbs and pretends that everything is fine.

 

[frost king]

We are on the verge of catching the Oakland A's. We lead them by half a game!

 

[Epictetus]

The spike in HRs, the blisters, definitely gotta have some connection to the baseballs.

https://www.economist.com/blogs/gametheory/2017/06/baseball-s-power-surge

 

[dredeye]

Swing and a miss. Have never employed projections systems to support my stance, and I am perfectly fine with the 22 year old stud closer remaining a closer. Your tunnel vision has caused to lump several 'dreamers' into one single entity.

Now, I have invited you to present your pro-forma plan for what you would do with the Blue Jays over the next three year if you were in the front-office, and you have repeatedly chosen to ignore it. Instead, simply spouting negativity whenever possible, and criticizing other people's viewpoints. I am open to reading your opinion on your strategic plan, but until then...

Funny I've asked him for the same breakdown and I have yet to see one either. It's like he just doesn't have a clue on what they should do.

 

[metafour]

Funny I've asked him for the same breakdown and I have yet to see one either. It's like he just doesn't have a clue on what they should do.

Maybe I'll charge tuition and teach all of you a thing or two about baseball. I'll use songs and costumes to keep it at a junior kindergarten level.

You are very demanding.

 

[dredeye]

Agreed. But its not like it was all pitching all the time they did draft position players - they just were pretty bad at it or they just didnt sign them.

2010: 22 out 55 players drafted were position players (3 out of the first 10 picks) 15 PP players signed vs 20 pitchers signed
2011: 23 out of 55 (2 out of 10) 17 PP signed vs 18 pitchers
2012: 26 out 44 (4 out of 10) 21 PP signed vs 13 pitchers
2013: 18 out 40 (1 out of 10) 14 PP signed vs 15 pitchers
2014: 18 out 41 (5 out of 10) 12 PP signed vs 17 pitchers
2015: 21 out 40 (4 out of 10) 20 PP signed vs 13 pitchers

128 Position players drafted
147 Pitchers drafted

Drafted is interesting to look at but how many they signed matters.

99 Position player signed
96 Pitchers signed

So the focus was on pitchers early on as AA stated but outside of 2013 there was good balance. I also have to keep in mind that that 2012-2015 probably had a lot to do with how their draft board fell.

But over AA's tenure he drafted more pitchers but signed more position players.

So they didnt ignore position player just bad drafting and/or developing position players.

Draft position matters as well though. He'd always go pitcher heavy early and then start drafting position players. He also burnt a lot of early pics in the new system to get more money to sign harder signs. I'm not sure what they were though. Pitche or positional but they were never meant to be anything more than a 5 or 10k signing bonus

 

[Discoverer]

Maybe I'll charge tuition and teach all of you a thing or two about baseball. I'll use songs and costumes to keep it at a junior kindergarten level.

You are very demanding.

If you spent less time trying to be witty, you might actually stumble upon a baseball thought yourself.

 

[metafour]

If you spent less time trying to be witty, you might actually stumble upon a baseball thought yourself.

You realize that my power only grows stronger, right? Just wait until I really start gloating, you haven't even seen my final form yet. Like I said; 4D Chess.

 

[dredeye]

Maybe I'll charge tuition and teach all of you a thing or two about baseball. I'll use songs and costumes to keep it at a junior kindergarten level.

You are very demanding.

Maybe instead of posting like your in junior kindergarten you could post your tare down and rebuild thoughts/ideas. Unlike yourself I can reason with opposing views and can easily get behind strong ideas. I may even throw in an additional thought/suggestion on a way I think you could improve upon your plan. Crazy I know.

It's pretty pathetic that you think someone asking for a breakdown of what you keep claiming you've known for so long is demanding.

To "charge tuition" you'd also need to post some kind of plan/example but with your power issues that doesn't seem possible.

 

[metafour]

Hey guiz, remember when I said that we needed to take into account that even a minor drop off in Donaldson's play would be extremely dangerous for a team that literally needed the last day of the season just to secure a WC spot last year? You know, because Donaldson playing at a 7-8 WAR level was extremely unlikely to last much longer, and that even a 5 WAR season from him would be 2-3 less wins for a team that didn't have any room for error in the first place? While we're on the subject, we can also bring up my #META analysis on how relying on every pitcher to somehow not get hurt or falter for a second straight season was foolish, and why this put us at serious risk for regression.

Boy, I really should be charging you for these hot takes.

 

[metafour]

Maybe instead of posting like your in junior kindergarten you could post your tare down and rebuild thoughts/ideas. Unlike yourself I can reason with opposing views and can easily get behind strong ideas. I may even throw in an additional thought/suggestion on a way I think you could improve upon your plan. Crazy I know.

It's pretty pathetic that you think someone asking for a breakdown of what you keep claiming you've known for so long is demanding.

Uhm, like I've said before, my thoughts are well established if you try reading. I'm not going to repeat everything to every person that asks, if you haven't noticed I'm in between debates with almost every person that posts here. How much time do you think I have to write essays for all of you?

There is no super-secret rebuilding plan. I'm not in favour of trading everyone. Like I've said a thousand times, I don't believe this team is a realistic contender next year. That means I trade Happ and look to move Donaldson whenever is best because I am not in the business of giving him a mega-deal which will pay him for past performance on seasons that are clearly long gone. I said we move Pillar months ago because he is a defense only player who's defense is already slipping and thus he won't be worth **** by the time we are actually a threat again. By the way; I brought up his regressed defensive metrics months ago and while he has bounced back some, his metrics at the end of this year will look nothing like they have the past two seasons. That means that next year is a writeoff and you play it by ear. I keep Smoak because he costs nothing and his value increases if he starts next season and looks like he's still legit, which I see no reason to doubt at this point. Everything else falls into place by itself as you are stuck with the contracts you have. There is no rush to trade any of the three pitchers yet.