Blue Jays Discussion: Midway point in the season and things don't look.. Ugh.. Good

[hoc123]

Uhm, like I've said before, my thoughts are well established if you try reading. I'm not going to repeat everything to every person that asks, if you haven't noticed I'm in between debates with almost every person that posts here. How much time do you think I have to write essays for all of you?

There is no super-secret rebuilding plan. I'm not in favour of trading everyone. Like I've said a thousand times, I don't believe this team is a realistic contender next year. That means I trade Happ and look to move Donaldson whenever is best because I am not in the business of giving him a mega-deal which will pay him for past performance on seasons that are clearly long gone. I said we move Pillar months ago because he is a defense only player who's defense is already slipping and thus he won't be worth **** by the time we are actually a threat again. By the way; I brought up his regressed defensive metrics months ago and while he has bounced back some, his metrics at the end of this year will look nothing like they have the past two seasons. That means that next year is a writeoff and you play it by ear. I keep Smoak because he costs nothing and his value increases if he starts next season and looks like he's still legit, which I see no reason to doubt at this point. Everything else falls into place by itself as you are stuck with the contracts you have. There is no rush to trade any of the three pitchers yet.

I have a question, what year would you try to have the Blue Jays competing by? 2019, 2020 or some year past that?

 

[metafour]

I have a question, what year would you try to have the Blue Jays competing by? 2019, 2020 or some year past that?

There is no "year" as this is literally all dictated by developments that are fluid. Like I said in a joke post, maybe Gurriel and Aflord come up and are stars next season. That speeds up any rebuild immensely. Maybe Greene or SRF come up and light it up and all of a sudden you have a rotation again.

Baseball is extremely fluid. The Yankees shot themselves back to life by acquiring Didi Gregorius, Aaron Hicks, and Starlin Castro for virtually nothing, while Justin Smoak is our best player this season.

You build a winning franchise by making it a priority to make smart baseball moves. That may sound obvious, but it drives you away from **** like "we gotta win now because Donaldson is in his prime", or "you can't trade Donaldson, he's an MVP player". One player means literally nothing in baseball, especially a player who is going to turn 33 by the time your control runs out. Find another favourite player.

 

[metafour]

By the way, while I keep trolling about Fangraphs' playoff projections, something HAS to be wrong with their system. Thanks to a poster on another forum, apparently our playoff odds shot UP by 10% by losing to the Red Sox. They currently project us to have the best winning percentage in the AL East for the remainder of the season, but this percentage keeps randomly fluctuating from ~.520 to ~.550 once or twice a day.

 

[hoc123]

There is no "year" as this is literally all dictated by developments that are fluid. Like I said in a joke post, maybe Gurriel and Aflord come up and are stars next season. That speeds up any rebuild immensely. Maybe Greene or SRF come up and light it up and all of a sudden you have a rotation again.

Baseball is extremely fluid. The Yankees shot themselves back to life by acquiring Didi Gregorius, Aaron Hicks, and Starlin Castro for virtually nothing, while Justin Smoak is our best player this season.

You build a winning franchise by making it a priority to make smart baseball moves. That may sound obvious, but it drives you away from **** like "we gotta win now because Donaldson is in his prime", or "you can't trade Donaldson, he's an MVP player". One player means literally nothing in baseball, especially a player who is going to turn 33 by the time your control runs out. Find another favourite player.

I agree that developments can change how a team looks but I think it's important to have at least a general idea of when your team should be competitive, as it can change what is a smart baseball move. For example, if you think the Jays can be competitive perhaps by 2019, then it probably isn't a smart baseball move to trade Stroman, Sanchez, and Osuna. If you think they aren't going to compete until 2021 or later, then it is probably a smart baseball move to trade, or at least shop, Stroman, Sanchez and Osuna. I would say a smart baseball team has a general idea when they can compete, but are also flexible enough that should developments change enough they can adjust their plans.

By the way, while I keep trolling about Fangraphs' playoff projections, something HAS to be wrong with their system. Thanks to a poster on another forum, apparently our playoff odds shot UP by 10% by losing to the Red Sox. They currently project us to have the best winning percentage in the AL East for the remainder of the season, but this percentage keeps randomly fluctuating from ~.520 to ~.550 once or twice a day.

Really? Are you sure?

Edit: Just checked fangraphs, how is that possible? I think they account for future projections and run differential, so in theory the Jays could have better odds even if they lost, but I can't imagine one day of games in July where the Jays lost would effect it that positively.

 

[Kurtz]

The spike in HRs, the blisters, definitely gotta have some connection to the baseballs.

https://www.economist.com/blogs/gametheory/2017/06/baseball-s-power-surge

Yikes. Well, Stro was 100% right.

 

[Bluelines]

Yikes. Well, Stro was 100% right.

MLB contacted all clubs and told them to tell the players to stop talking about this,....I smell a cover-up!!!

 

[deletethis]

The Blue Jays' org may have the Richard Peddie Leafs' "compete now" issue after selling a lot of tickets over the last 3 seasons. I get it, the best thing for the team isn't the best thing for the business. I hope they can figure out the balance.

This doesn't mean that a few forward thinking moves can't still be made. As far as I'm concerned, there isn't a position player who I wouldn't deal at the right price. And the team is currently sitting on a super valuable commodity: a good lefthanded starter.

 

[Bluelines]

This team needs to be striped down to the rafters and rebuild the right way, IE Astros, Cubs.

Trade Sanchez, trade Osuna, trade JD, trade Stroshow, people will ask are you insane, those guys are controllable and all of them are stars. Which is true but you won't get quality prospects for Bautista, Liranio, Happ, Tulo, etc. So the option, if we dont strip this team, is to wait, draft and suck for a long long time.

If management thinks they can throw a band-aid on this next year and the team will return to the playoffs, they are fooling themselves and only delaying the inevitable rebuild. For Sanchez, Osuna, JD, Stroman you should get at least 6 to 8 legit blue chip grade A prospects at a minimum.

I hope management has the stones to do the right thing.

 

[theaub]

This team needs to be striped down to the rafters and rebuild the right way, IE Astros, Cubs.

Trade Sanchez, trade Osuna, trade JD, trade Stroshow, people will ask are you insane, those guys are controllable and all of them are stars. Which is true but you won't get quality prospects for Bautista, Liranio, Happ, Tulo, etc. So the option, if we dont strip this team, is to wait, draft and suck for a long long time.

If management thinks they can throw a band-aid on this next year and the team will return to the playoffs, they are fooling themselves and only delaying the inevitable rebuild. For Sanchez, Osuna, JD, Stroman you should get at least 6 to 8 legit blue chip grade A prospects at a minimum.

I hope management has the stones to do the right thing.

Neither the Cubs or the Astros traded good, young controllable players in their rebuild.

Unless you think (and to be clear, these are all valid arguments with the correct amount of information), that Sanchez will have blister problems forever, Stroman has plateaued and Osuna's arm clock is seriously ticking, then there is zero reason to move them unless the value is insane.

There is nothing wrong with having guys approaching free agency or the age of 30 when the young players come up. This is not the NHL - you have a finite amount of roster spots and far less payroll parameters so you can pay good players.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

There is no "year" as this is literally all dictated by developments that are fluid. Like I said in a joke post, maybe Gurriel and Aflord come up and are stars next season. That speeds up any rebuild immensely. Maybe Greene or SRF come up and light it up and all of a sudden you have a rotation again.

Baseball is extremely fluid. The Yankees shot themselves back to life by acquiring Didi Gregorius, Aaron Hicks, and Starlin Castro for virtually nothing, while Justin Smoak is our best player this season.

You build a winning franchise by making it a priority to make smart baseball moves. That may sound obvious, but it drives you away from **** like "we gotta win now because Donaldson is in his prime", or "you can't trade Donaldson, he's an MVP player". One player means literally nothing in baseball, especially a player who is going to turn 33 by the time your control runs out. Find another favourite player.

Wait a minute....

Have you not been berating people in this thread for the last two months for encouraging sound logic and good baseball moves?

The other day you got mad at me because I said "the market for a Donaldson would be soft given the lack of demand for third baseman from teams outside the division, which are not likely to be trade partners. Might as well keep him, and try to re-tool for next year." How the **** is that not smart.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

This team needs to be striped down to the rafters and rebuild the right way, IE Astros, Cubs.

Trade Sanchez, trade Osuna, trade JD, trade Stroshow, people will ask are you insane, those guys are controllable and all of them are stars. Which is true but you won't get quality prospects for Bautista, Liranio, Happ, Tulo, etc. So the option, if we dont strip this team, is to wait, draft and suck for a long long time.

If management thinks they can throw a band-aid on this next year and the team will return to the playoffs, they are fooling themselves and only delaying the inevitable rebuild. For Sanchez, Osuna, JD, Stroman you should get at least 6 to 8 legit blue chip grade A prospects at a minimum.

I hope management has the stones to do the right thing.

Would this be considered "smart baseball moves", because this is the thing that I've been preaching against. The petulant "trade them all because I'm upset" strategy.

Also, to the actual poster, do you not realize that your 2020 core is already in the system? When Vladimir Guerrero Jr., the #1 prospect in baseball is 21, Bichette (likely top ten prospect in baseball at seasons end) will be 22, Alford (top 50 prospect) will be 24, Danny Jansen (2nd best hitting performance from a catching prospect in baseball in 2017) will be 25, and Gurriel (top 100 prospect) will be 26.

That doesn't include Tellez (25), Pompey (27), Pentecost (27) who are all considered dead, and Warmoth (24). Nor does it consider any of the pitchers currently at A+ or above: SRF (24), Greene (25), Harris (26), Rios (25), Zeuch (24), Romano (27), Borucki (26).

At which time, Sanchez (29), Stroman (30), Osuna (26) and the dearly departed Devon Travis (30) will be in their primes.

But, yeah, tank nation, let's do it.

 

[Bluelines]

Neither the Cubs or the Astros traded good, young controllable players in their rebuild.

Unless you think (and to be clear, these are all valid arguments with the correct amount of information), that Sanchez will have blister problems forever, Stroman has plateaued and Osuna's arm clock is seriously ticking, then there is zero reason to move them unless the value is insane.

There is nothing wrong with having guys approaching free agency or the age of 30 when the young players come up. This is not the NHL - you have a finite amount of roster spots and far less payroll parameters so you can pay good players.

The only reason I suggest trading those 4 is because they all have value, some fans think trading is like a video game, you can trade our junk for their gold, it don't work that way. We need to give up quality to get quality.

If you honestly look at our team RF, C (good D, poor O), LF are all garbage. 2B (cant stay healthy), SS Garbage. Catcher garbage. Pitching is a mess.

So we need a RF, CF, LF, SS,2B, C we need 3 more quality starters and a few bull pen pitchers. How do you solve for that?

 

[Bluelines]

Would this be considered "smart baseball moves", because this is the thing that I've been preaching against. The petulant "trade them all because I'm upset" strategy.

Also, to the actual poster, do you not realize that your 2020 core is already in the system? When Vladimir Guerrero Jr., the #1 prospect in baseball is 21, Bichette (likely top ten prospect in baseball at seasons end) will be 22, Alford (top 50 prospect) will be 24, Danny Jansen (2nd best hitting performance from a catching prospect in baseball in 2017) will be 25, and Gurriel (top 100 prospect) will be 26.

That doesn't include Tellez (25), Pompey (27), Pentecost (27) who are all considered dead, and Warmoth (24). Nor does it consider any of the pitchers currently at A+ or above: SRF (24), Greene (25), Harris (26), Rios (25), Zeuch (24), Romano (27), Borucki (26).

At which time, Sanchez (29), Stroman (30), Osuna (26) and the dearly departed Devon Travis (30) will be in their primes.

But, yeah, tank nation, let's do it.

Good post and all fair points do you think all of the players you mentioned will still be healthy/impact players by then?

I simply want to turn 4 very good assets into 8 to 10 very good assets, the deeper our farm system is the greater likelyhood our MLB team will be successful.

 

[dredeye]

Uhm, like I've said before, my thoughts are well established if you try reading. I'm not going to repeat everything to every person that asks, if you haven't noticed I'm in between debates with almost every person that posts here. How much time do you think I have to write essays for all of you?

There is no super-secret rebuilding plan. I'm not in favour of trading everyone. Like I've said a thousand times, I don't believe this team is a realistic contender next year. That means I trade Happ and look to move Donaldson whenever is best because I am not in the business of giving him a mega-deal which will pay him for past performance on seasons that are clearly long gone. I said we move Pillar months ago because he is a defense only player who's defense is already slipping and thus he won't be worth **** by the time we are actually a threat again. By the way; I brought up his regressed defensive metrics months ago and while he has bounced back some, his metrics at the end of this year will look nothing like they have the past two seasons. That means that next year is a writeoff and you play it by ear. I keep Smoak because he costs nothing and his value increases if he starts next season and looks like he's still legit, which I see no reason to doubt at this point. Everything else falls into place by itself as you are stuck with the contracts you have. There is no rush to trade any of the three pitchers yet.

If you had left out the first part this is a well thought out post. I would counter with what would the true demand for Pillar have been. Because I'm sure other teams are well aware that Pillar is a defence only cf. if his bat was legit this year than it would be a much different story. But I just don't see Pillar being able to bring back anything worth moving him for at this point.

No one would lose their minds if we traded Happ. But if we have a similar season next year and he's playing like he is now or better than the return could be as good or greater next year anyway.

Donaldson is the tricky one. I think most educated fans would understand the reasoning for moving him now, in the off season or at next years deadline. The problem the Jays front office has is that he's the face of the franchise and they need to not **** it up. I hire it all depends on if regardless they want him to finish his career here.

Agreed on Smoak. No need to trade him because he's now a no risk high reward player. Next season if he can repeat this seasons success if we wanted to move him he'd be way more valuable because he will have established himself.

Either way it'll be fun to see how it all plays out

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

Good post and all fair points do you think all of the players you mentioned will still be healthy/impact players by then?

I simply want to turn 4 very good assets into 8 to 10 very good assets, the deeper our farm system is the greater likelyhood our MLB team will be successful.

I know what you think you'd be doing. But in reality, you'd be taking three (in the case of Sanchez, Stroman and Osuna) appreciating assets, and trading them for 8 to 10 lottery tickets.

Which is both ill-fated and unnecessary.

 

[thewave]

Would this be considered "smart baseball moves", because this is the thing that I've been preaching against. The petulant "trade them all because I'm upset" strategy.

Also, to the actual poster, do you not realize that your 2020 core is already in the system? When Vladimir Guerrero Jr., the #1 prospect in baseball is 21, Bichette (likely top ten prospect in baseball at seasons end) will be 22, Alford (top 50 prospect) will be 24, Danny Jansen (2nd best hitting performance from a catching prospect in baseball in 2017) will be 25, and Gurriel (top 100 prospect) will be 26.

That doesn't include Tellez (25), Pompey (27), Pentecost (27) who are all considered dead, and Warmoth (24). Nor does it consider any of the pitchers currently at A+ or above: SRF (24), Greene (25), Harris (26), Rios (25), Zeuch (24), Romano (27), Borucki (26).

At which time, Sanchez (29), Stroman (30), Osuna (26) and the dearly departed Devon Travis (30) will be in their primes.

But, yeah, tank nation, let's do it.

Are you saying we have one of the strongest prospect pools going? I honestly dont know here and would you be against builing around our top 3-4 players? I mean this team we have now clearly doesnt work for whayever reason. Do you think we should flip some management? Trainers? Why do our individuals most always underperform in Toronto? The lighting? Field?

There has to be an explanation

 

[613Leafer]

I think most people recognize that there are some pretty solid pieces on the farm, but that the holes in the roster also won't be filled by next season.

So tweaking to try to contend next season doesn't make sense to me. I'd aim for 2019 and beyond. So any pieces that can only help us next year, but not long-term, we should consider selling off.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

Are you saying we have one of the strongest prospect pools going? I honestly dont know here and would you be against builing around our top 3-4 players? I mean this team we have now clearly doesnt work for whayever reason. Do you think we should flip some management? Trainers? Why do our individuals most always underperform in Toronto? The lighting? Field?

There has to be an explanation

It will top 5-8 at seasons end, yes. With two top 10 prospects in baseball, three top 50, and 5-6 top 100.

Also, you just came off of back to back ALCS's. Let's raise the level a tad, shall we.

 

[Bluelines]

I know what you think you'd be doing. But in reality, you'd be taking three (in the case of Sanchez, Stroman and Osuna) appreciating assets, and trading them for 8 to 10 lottery tickets.

Which is both ill-fated and unnecessary.

Not be argumentative but you're assuming that those 3 will continue to perform at this level and at the same time assuming the people I want to acquire will be gambles.

Sanchez is already showing some Al Lieter like issues, you can easily fix it by having him pee on his pitching hand ever time he goes to the bathroom, I know gross and sounds crazy but it will toughen up his skin.

Stroman is small, very small and the type of pitches he throws will eventually break down his arm, its not if it will, its when it will, this guy will not have a long career.

Osuna is having some mental health issues,that is not like a twisted ankle that gets better in a few weeks, its something that will be a life long condition that may get worse, having a friend who has anxiety/panic attacks, I can speak from experience one second things are fine next second he is in a full blown panic attack for seemingly no reason. Its a very serious health issue.

Every athlete is a bit of an unknown, be it the guys we have or the guys I would hope we would get in a trade.

 

[theaub]

lmao people still believe the mental health issue BS?

That was some JP Ricciardi-esque cover up ****.

 

[thewave]

I think most people recognize that there are some pretty solid pieces on the farm, but that the holes in the roster also won't be filled by next season.

So tweaking to try to contend next season doesn't make sense to me. I'd aim for 2019 and beyond. So any pieces that can only help us next year, but not long-term, we should consider selling off.

That seems most reasonable. I would still look into things like lighting and field, trainers etc. Something stops us from getting the best out of our players routinely.

 

[phillipmike]

The only reason I suggest trading those 4 is because they all have value, some fans think trading is like a video game, you can trade our junk for their gold, it don't work that way. We need to give up quality to get quality.

If you honestly look at our team RF, C (good D, poor O), LF are all garbage. 2B (cant stay healthy), SS Garbage. Catcher garbage. Pitching is a mess.

So we need a RF, CF, LF, SS,2B, C we need 3 more quality starters and a few bull pen pitchers. How do you solve for that?

Just pointing out one thing i disagree with (though there are others).

Not sure what your metric is for a catcher's offense but Martin is a top 10 offensive catcher.

I think people see a 105 wRC+ and think this guy is barely a league average hitter. But you have to look at it from the POV of all catchers.

Of the 26 catchers that have 200+ PAs Martin ranks 9th in wRC+ and OFF rating. Martin has a 1.4 WAR (also 9th) and if he played a full season he is on pace for a 3-3.5 WAR season (in 2015 his WAR was 3.5 in 129 games).

2017: http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.as...7&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0

Martin was 9th in WAR, wRC+ and OFF as well in 2016 among catchers with 400+ PAs.
He was 5th in wRC+, 4th in OFF rating and 3rd in WAR in 2015.

2015: http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.as...am=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=21,d
2016: http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.as...6&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0

He may not seem like much in a vacuum for a catcher he is one is still one of the best in the game and unless you are acquiring Posey, Sanchez, Perez, Contreas or Molina you are likely downgrading significantly if you move off Martin. Heck we have a hard time finding a capable backup - by this team last season we only used Martin and Thole (Navarro was acquired later in the season). We already went through Martin, Salty, Ohulman, Maile and Montero.

He may not seem like much but among catchers he is one of the best and that is all that matters if you are looking at replacing him.

 

[Bluelines]

I think most people recognize that there are some pretty solid pieces on the farm, but that the holes in the roster also won't be filled by next season.

So tweaking to try to contend next season doesn't make sense to me. I'd aim for 2019 and beyond. So any pieces that can only help us next year, but not long-term, we should consider selling off.

Reading a few articles this morning and each one cited "sources" that the Blue Jays think they can contend next year, so no rebuild just a little tweak here and there.

 

[thewave]

It will top 5-8 at seasons end, yes. With two top 10 prospects in baseball, three top 50, and 5-6 top 100.

Also, you just came off of back to back ALCS's. Let's raise the level a tad, shall we.

Ok thats good to hear. Do you not find that a lot of good players come here and play terrible ball? Its really strange but this team in particular seems ok on paper? So terrible on the field. Did they change the field or lights??

 

[Bluelines]

Just pointing out one thing i disagree with (though there are others).

Not sure what your metric is for a catcher's offense but Martin is a top 10 offensive catcher.

I think people see a 105 wRC+ and think this guy is barely a league average hitter. But you have to look at it from the POV of all catchers.

Of the 26 catchers that have 200+ PAs Martin ranks 9th in wRC+ and OFF rating. Martin has a 1.4 WAR (also 9th) and if he played a full season he is on pace for a 3-3.5 WAR season (in 2015 his WAR was 3.5 in 129 games).

2017: http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.as...7&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0

Martin was 9th in WAR, wRC+ and OFF as well in 2016 among catchers with 400+ PAs.
He was 5th in wRC+, 4th in OFF rating and 3rd in WAR in 2015.

2015: http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.as...am=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=21,d
2016: http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.as...6&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0

He may not seem like much in a vacuum for a catcher he is one is still one of the best in the game and unless you are acquiring Posey, Sanchez, Perez, Contreas or Molina you are likely downgrading significantly if you move off Martin. Heck we have a hard time finding a capable backup - by this team last season we only used Martin and Thole (Navarro was acquired later in the season). We already went through Martin, Salty, Ohulman, Maile and Montero.

He may not seem like much but among catchers he is one of the best and that is all that matters if you are looking at replacing him.

Fair enough and TBH I was blinded by his horrible hitting this year. I can accept the crappy hitting if the other people in the lineup weren't so horrible.