TSN: McKenzie: I get the feeling Matthews & Marner want to wait until next summer to sign

[diceman934]

For someone who is new to hockey like you are, I have to give you credit for trying to learn the game, stick in there, you'll get it eventually, maybe?

So rather then admit you were wrong you post this.

 

[willmma]

The anticipation is killing me. I can't wait until the Leafs sign Matthews, Nylander, and Marner and the uncertainty is done.
Also, cant wait until the Leafs sign Tavares

 

[Daisy Jane]

Mess gets it.

Forget which show I was watching but they were talking about the 3 amigos and they said, sign them in this order, Nylander first, Marner next and Matthews last. The reasoning is they used the Draisaitl, McDavid scenario and they theorized that by signing the big fish first (McDavid) it actually brought up Draisaitl's AAV. I tend to agree with this theory. They also said that if Marner and Nylander are smart they should bet on themselves and sign a bridge contract vs signing a long term 8 year deal.

They also said that Matthews AAV is somewhere between McDavid (12mil) and Eichel (10 mil). they feel that Marner's contract comparable is Pasternak's (AAV $6.67)

I honestly don't get why people are so scared of bridge deals.
you have 7 years of control.
3 ELC
2 RFA no Arb
2 RFA with Arb

use it to your advantage. heck. structure you contract (if you must give them a llong contract) pay them in a ladder.

 

[Bluelines]

I honestly don't get why people are so scared of bridge deals.
you have 7 years of control.
3 ELC
2 RFA no Arb
2 RFA with Arb

use it to your advantage. heck. structure you contract (if you must give them a llong contract) pay them in a ladder.

Agreed if you are just coming off your 3 year entry and think you deserve 8, 9 mil but are not willing to bet on yourself and take a bridge year so you can sign a bigger contract after the bridge deal expires, kinda sends a message that you don't think you are going to improve.

If I'm Nylander or Marmer, I'm pulling a Subban all day every day.

 

[Bluelines]

So rather then admit you were wrong you post this.

Uh, most people would understand that my reply is telling you that I think you are wrong...but that is just most people, you've clearly demonstrated that you aren't most people.

 

[Daisy Jane]

Agreed if you are just coming off your 3 year entry and think you deserve 8, 9 mil but are not willing to bet on yourself and take a bridge year so you can sign a bigger contract after the bridge deal expires, kinda sends a message that you don't think you are going to improve.

If I'm Nylander or Marmer, I'm pulling a Subban all day every day.

right?
take two years, earn it and the leafs will happily pay
i'd rather overpay knowing what i have vs. "saving money"

 

[Silver91]

kinda sends a message that you don't think you are going to improve

Meh, signing short-term is also a bet that you won't suffer a career threatening injury. If you've got an offer for $55M vs. one for $15M, it's awfully difficult to turn down an extra $40M, especially in a career where one bad hit can end it all.

Turning down a long-term deal, with a higher AAV than a bridge contract, is a gamble on a lot more than talent.

Personally, I'd bridge all 3 and deal with the cap implications at a later date. We don't know how high the Cap will or won't go, so unless they're taking sweetheart deals to sign long-term, I ice the best roster possible right now, and deal with fitting everyone in/moving bodies out in a few years.

 

[Legion34]

You can’t brodge all 3. That’s pretty much cap suicide.

Willy is a an Rfa. No point in bridging him now. He proved himself to be worth 6.5 ish. That’s a fair deal. 3 years from now you won’t get him. For less and he could deserve way more. Why risk that.

Matthews is the same. All these people who think he will get more than mcdavid are out to lunch. Even if the cap goes to 85 that’s like a .10 raise. Which is about a million.
Mcdavid has a hart, Pearson and 2 ross.

Matthews will not get more than mcdavid. Or even the same. Especially now that they are under the same umbrella.

Mitch could want to bet on himself and take a 2 year bridge. That would be fine get us out of the cap crunch. Of course with the impending lockout, who would take that.

Offer them long term deals with full salary lockout protection. They would be nuts not to sign

I wouldn’t mind seeing what Mitch’s comparables sign for. Aho. Ratanen, barzal etc before signing him If he wants more than 7.

If Willy wants a short term. Say we will trade you to Carolina for a D. Hope they can afford to pay you in 3 yrs

 

[Legion34]

Also. People asking for a bridge better know what they are asking for. 1 I can see. But all 3? Nuts.

What if Winnipeg bridged chief? Could they afford laine?

What if Colorado bridged mackinnon? What would he get now? 11?

What if Calgary bridged johny and Monahan? What would they be worth?

Do you think the isles would love another 2 years with Tavares in the fold?

Willy bet on himself and lost. To let him bridge again to try to get a 8-9 million deal is lunacy... the Matthews market is set.

Marner has a bunch of high performing contemporaries who may sign for less. If you have to bridge. It’s him I think

 

[IBeL34f]

Also. People asking for a bridge better know what they are asking for. 1 I can see. But all 3? Nuts.

What if Winnipeg bridged chief? Could they afford laine?

What if Colorado bridged mackinnon? What would he get now? 11?

What if Calgary bridged johny and Monahan? What would they be worth?

Do you think the isles would love another 2 years with Tavares in the fold?

Willy bet on himself and lost. To let him bridge again to try to get a 8-9 million deal is lunacy... the Matthews market is set.

Marner has a bunch of high performing contemporaries who may sign for less. If you have to bridge. It’s him I think

Just curious what you're referring to here - Nylander is currently on his ELC, and has never signed any other NHL contract. When did he bet on himself, and how did he lose?

 

[Erndog]

Just curious what you're referring to here - Nylander is currently on his ELC, and has never signed any other NHL contract. When did he bet on himself, and how did he lose?

Probably means he could have extended last summer (like Ehlers).

I don't think he lost tho. Last year or this year, he's still probably getting a similar contract.

 

[IBeL34f]

Probably means he could have extended last summer (like Ehlers).

I don't think he lost tho. Last year or this year, he's still probably getting a similar contract.

I would think Willy upped his stock this year - Didn't see that big increase in his scoring, but his work at 5v5 was much improved, he was missing his Center for 20 games, and he even got a better look down the middle himself.

I agree, though, I can't imagine there would've been a big difference between what he would've signed for last year and what he will sign for this year.

 

[LeafFever]

https://www.tsn.ca/video/dreger-pre...l-be-around-11m-marner-not-far-behind~1415688

Dreger says Marner's camp might be pushing for 9M depending on what Matthews does which is absolutely ridiculous imo. If he want's to make that money, he gets over a ppg and pushing 90+ points. That would be an awful contract if he doesn't. There's only so much you can gamble on potential.

I dunno I think Marner is going to have a monster season.

 

[LeafsNation75]

I dunno I think Marner is going to have a monster season.

If Marner has a monster season no Leafs fan would complain about that. However for him to be considered asking for $9 million he would need to put up the same numbers Leon Draisaitl did during the 2016-2017 season which was 29 goals, 48 assists and 77 points. That got him a contract worth $8.5 million.

 

[Menzinger]

Probably means he could have extended last summer (like Ehlers).

I don't think he lost tho. Last year or this year, he's still probably getting a similar contract.

Worth noting that Mirtle/Siegel on a recent podcast notes that the Nylander camp was open to a new contract last summer but the Leafs opted to wait.

I’d agree that his contract situation likely wasn’t negatively impacted by last season too

 

[Legion34]

Just curious what you're referring to here - Nylander is currently on his ELC, and has never signed any other NHL contract. When did he bet on himself, and how did he lose?

He had the chance to sign last year and bet on himself. He didn’t improve his numbers so he shouldn’t be looking for more. He didn’t really lose I guess in that he didn’t regress but he went through the year without job security and it didn’t pay off. Can’t let him do that again

 

[Legion34]

Worth noting that Mirtle/Siegel on a recent podcast notes that the Nylander camp was open to a new contract last summer but the Leafs opted to wait.

I’d agree that his contract situation likely wasn’t negatively impacted by last season too

Oh. Ok. I had that wrong. If it was the leafs, then I can see. I thought he said he wasn’t in a big rush and that he didn’t want to sign in the year.

 

[Menzinger]

I honestly don't get why people are so scared of bridge deals.
you have 7 years of control.
3 ELC
2 RFA no Arb
2 RFA with Arb

use it to your advantage. heck. structure you contract (if you must give them a llong contract) pay them in a ladder.

The advantage of the bridge deal is that it can potentially lead to the team having the player locked up for a longer period, and obviously gives the team more cap flexibility in the short term.

The risk of course is if the player performs well (ie increases their scoring rate around 10-20 + points on average a season), it can cost upwards of 2+ million more on an AAV to lock them up. And if you think of that player as a long term core player, thats definitely a negative.

What will be interesting is if NHL stars start a copy their NBA counterparts and start going for huge money short term deals like one or two your contracts which would allow them to keep re-up in their salary rate as the cap rises.

 

[LeafsNation75]

The advantage of the bridge deal is that it can potentially lead to the team having the player locked up for a longer period, and obviously gives the team more cap flexibility in the short term.

The risk of course is if the player performs well (ie increases their scoring rate around 10-20 + points on average a season), it can cost upwards of 2+ million more on an AAV to lock them up. And if you think of that player as a long term core player, thats definitely a negative.

What will be interesting is if NHL stars start a copy their NBA counterparts and start going for huge money short term deals like one or two your contracts which would allow them to keep re-up in their salary rate as the cap rises.

Look at what happened when P.K. Subban signed that 2 year bridge deal with Montreal. Forgetting about the reasons why they traded him which had nothing to do with his next contract, he won the Norrs Trophy the year he signed that bridge contract and eventually got that 8 year, $9 million contract.

 

[Menzinger]

Look at what happened when P.K. Subban signed that 2 year bridge deal with Montreal. Forgetting about the reasons why they traded him which had nothing to do with his next contract, he won the Norrs Trophy the year he signed that bridge contract and eventually got that 8 year, $9 million contract.

Exactly, and the Habs probably could’ve locked him up at around 7 million before the bridge deal. I prefer the option of longer-term contracts myself. But there are a couple advantages with the bridge deal.

 

[stickty111]

Marner is a selfish brat if he is asking for 9 million.
Hey Mitch, jumping up and down after goals doesnt mean you can ask for undeserved money.

 

[ACC1224]

Worth noting that Mirtle/Siegel on a recent podcast notes that the Nylander camp was open to a new contract last summer but the Leafs opted to wait.

I’d agree that his contract situation likely wasn’t negatively impacted by last season too

Looks like they made a good call there.

 

[Daisy Jane]

The advantage of the bridge deal is that it can potentially lead to the team having the player locked up for a longer period, and obviously gives the team more cap flexibility in the short term.

The risk of course is if the player performs well (ie increases their scoring rate around 10-20 + points on average a season), it can cost upwards of 2+ million more on an AAV to lock them up. And if you think of that player as a long term core player, thats definitely a negative.

What will be interesting is if NHL stars start a copy their NBA counterparts and start going for huge money short term deals like one or two your contracts which would allow them to keep re-up in their salary rate as the cap rises.

right.
but whatever. take the risk.
like it's not our money. get capable capologists (which we have) to figure it out.
draft well, so if you have to offset a rich contract with cheap labour (sorry to be blunt, but true), you're good to go.
regardless of how it works out we can't financially keep everyone and unless people take less to stay (which yay), take advantage of your leverage. i find it very interesting how everyone is all YAY PLAYER when they take theirs (Arb, UFA) but it's "dumb" when the team (or fans) want to contemplate using theirs (ELC/2 year RFA no Arb).

literally no pun intended, cross that bridge when you get to it.

 

[TOGuy14]

Agreed if you are just coming off your 3 year entry and think you deserve 8, 9 mil but are not willing to bet on yourself and take a bridge year so you can sign a bigger contract after the bridge deal expires, kinda sends a message that you don't think you are going to improve.

If I'm Nylander or Marmer, I'm pulling a Subban all day every day.

There is a secondary strategy to it as well

Taking a long term deal coming off your ELC may short you some on the AAV it also secured you financially for life and protects against performance or injury issues. The bigger part is that it brings you to unrestricted free agency at the youngest age possible setting you up for a large retirement contract.

Better to hit UFA at 29-30 than 32/33. That has a huge impact on your second contract term and AAV

 

[PromisedLand]

I have a feeling Marner is going to have a very strong season next year; if we can lock him up that would be great!

Matthews is gonna get paid around 10M to 11M regardless