Confirmed with Link: Matthews new deal Pt 3

[Smif]

Those numbers are already normalized based on cap percentage.

Ah, sorry.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

You refuse to see the logic. ALL of the players who were compared on 6 year deals in the articles and projections were based on the ELC in its entirety. Those INDEPENDENT models predicted fairly accurately Nylander contract using those variables. BEFORE he was signed.

It doesn’t matter whether I agree or you agree or secondary assists matter or even strength etc. Those models compared Nylander to those contracts on the SAME metrics and came up with the number. Maybe future contracts will weight platform years more. That’s fine. Right now they don’t seem to. That’s the point.

Given the metrics used applied EQUALLY to Other COMPARABLE players. Nylanders
Contract was predicted at 6.7-7.2 with the most extensive model predicting exactly where he ended up. That is the definition of CONSISTENCY. The fact that you refuse to believe it because you hate the leafs is what is inconsistent.

2.). I don’t compare point and Marner because they aren’t comparable. They are in different positions with different strengths and dramatically different tax scenarios. It’s stupid.

I will compare goal scoring winger vs playmaking C on the same team at the same time. Matthews makes more and is worth more. Goal scoring and C is worth more. I personally value 5 on 5 over pp scoring as well. That’s my personal preference. You can see the exact arguments I made in the laine/Matthews debates BEFORE they were selected. I don’t know whether or not that leads to differences in contract values.

I will also compare goal scoring C who are taxed in American tax free states. (Matthews Arizona hometown) vs point in Florida.

Matthews clearly deserves more. Even though the taxes aren’t exactly even STILL. It’s closer. Matthews has a way better pedigree. More consistent and much better total numbers. Matthews deserves
Way more.

I will also compare playmaking wingers who play with top C on different teams without tax advantages. Marner and rantanen. They have similar overall production. I would say relatively equal contracts.

You refuse to believe media when you want. You refuse to believe statistical models when you want. You refuse to understand the articles you present. You refuse to make appropriate comparables.

The only consistent thing is your obvious bias. I have decided that in a year I bet you declare yourself a neutral observer and ply your schtick on. The main board

Got it.

On THE LEAFS, goals matter more and centres get paid more. But just the leafs apparently. The second we try seeing if you’re arguments are consistent with players on other teams, the comparisons are deemed “stupid”.

Sure sounds consistent to me...

You KNOW that Marner is going to get paid far more than Point (due to Dubas’ incompetence), so you’re avoiding the comparison like the plague. You’ll say over and over again that goals matter more and centres get paid more... but not when we compare to other teams. There is no consistency.

 

[Notsince67]

You are exactly right. But the poster doesn’t want to believe it. He is still clinging to the idea that Marner would be able to become a us resident. Rent a house for 15 years. Put all his money in an RCA and move to Florida to take it out....

He can. Money is kept in a trust to be drawn on when the person retires to a tax friendly state.

 

[Notsince67]

I do not get it. You were the president of the WNFC defending him at all costs and now you have done an about face and pile on to Dubas for overpaying him. What am I missing here ?

I'm confused too

 

[Throw More Waffles]

Based on the numbers I provided he should have gotten 6.3-6.5x6. That's .496-.696 less than what he did get. Less than the salary of a league minimum player.

6 years = 6 years = 6 years What's to consider on term? As to UFA years, they should all be the same. 3 year elc leaves 4 RFA years. Nylander had an extra RFA year, but only because we gamed the system to burn an ELC year without an RFA year. Any agent worth his salt is either going to amicably get that out of the way on grounds of good faith or draw a line in the sand and ignore it.

Every single one of those players had higher point percentage and goals. Nylander should be getting the LOWEST of all those players. So under 6 million per.

Let’s also point out that Nylander signed 7 mil times 5.7 seasons. It worked out to 7.5 over a full 6 seasons (as listed on cap friendly).

Lastly, ufa years DO matter. You can’t just say good agents make ufa years not matter”. What a joke. The leafsbused a “loophole”. What kind of bullshitbis that. Nylander had one extra rfa year than those comparables. Even if he were traded or offer sheeted. Bullshit excuses like this would NOT be used on other teams players. There is no consistency.

 

[Menzinger]

Ehlers got hosed, he gave away a year for no gain.

Nylander ended up .5-1 million to high based on the broader group of comparable 6 year deals to RFA wingers

He and Pasta likely aren’t overly pleased with their agents

 

[Legion34]

Got it.

On THE LEAFS, goals matter more and centres get paid more. But just the leafs apparently. The second we try seeing if you’re arguments are consistent with players on other teams, the comparisons are deemed “stupid”.

Sure sounds consistent to me...

You KNOW that Marner is going to get paid far more than Point (due to Dubas’ incompetence), so you’re avoiding the comparison like the plague. You’ll say over and over again that goals matter more and centres get paid more... but not when we compare to other teams. There is no consistency.

Goals. Do matter more. C does matter more. Kyle Dubas himself said.

Matthews gets this much because he is a C and he scores goals like few in the history of the game.

It’s not hard. Marner will get paid less than Matthews.

Point will probably get paid less than half the league. Just like stamkos. Just like Herman. Just like kucherov.

Goal scoring rocket Richard C.
100 pt soon to be art ross winning winger
Norris wining. D

ALL, regardless of position. Took way less than comparables and the rest of the league.

Point will do the same. It’s not hard.

It’s stupid because Point will get less than the rest of the league too.

Point will get less than rantanen. If it was JUST a leaf thing. It would apply only to the leafs. But it won’t. Point. A goal scoring C. Will probably get paid less than ALL of the RFA wingers this year.

Including marner

 

[Legion34]

He can. Money is kept in a trust to be drawn on when the person retires to a tax friendly state.

No that’s only for Americans. RCAs get taxed at 50 percent. It’s like a pension that you don’t have to wait until 60 to retire.

Marner is a Canadian who will work in Canada. Buy a house in Canada and make money in Canada. He can’t just go to Disney and take his money. Out.

If that were the case then every single Canadian with a govt pension could
Just retire to Florida and cash all their CPP and RRSP and get it tax free.

That would cost the govt BIllions

 

[4thline]

There is no consistency.

I'm sorry that complex negotiations spanning years with several competing factors compounded by human skills, relationships, and emotions don't come with iron plated decision trees.

Life must be a scary place.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

Goals. Do matter more. C does matter more. Kyle Dubas himself said.

Matthews gets this much because he is a C and he scores goals like few in the history of the game.

It’s not hard. Marner will get paid less than Matthews.

Point will probably get paid less than half the league. Just like stamkos. Just like Herman. Just like kucherov.

Goal scoring rocket Richard C.
100 pt soon to be art ross winning winger
Norris wining. D

ALL, regardless of position. Took way less than comparables and the rest of the league.

Point will do the same. It’s not hard.

It’s stupid because Point will get less than the rest of the league too.

Point will get less than rantanen. If it was JUST a leaf thing. It would apply only to the leafs. But it won’t. Point. A goal scoring C. Will probably get paid less than ALL of the RFA wingers this year.

Including marner

The leafs are going to front load far more than Tampa ever does.

Do you consider ANY financial advantage for a player to get a front loaded contract? If not, why do players fight so hard to get them? If yes, how significant is it exactly?

 

[Throw More Waffles]

I'm sorry that complex negotiations spanning years with several competing factors compounded by human skills, relationships, and emotions don't come with iron plated decision trees.

Life must be a scary place.

You look at the stats, and see what you want to see.

I look at them, and see reality.

Dramatically overpaid.

 

[Notsince67]

You refuse to see the logic. ALL of the players who were compared on 6 year deals in the articles and projections were based on the ELC in its entirety. Those INDEPENDENT models predicted fairly accurately Nylander contract using those variables. BEFORE he was signed.

It doesn’t matter whether I agree or you agree or secondary assists matter or even strength etc. Those models compared Nylander to those contracts on the SAME metrics and came up with the number. Maybe future contracts will weight platform years more. That’s fine. Right now they don’t seem to. That’s the point.

Given the metrics used applied EQUALLY to Other COMPARABLE players. Nylanders
Contract was predicted at 6.7-7.2 with the most extensive model predicting exactly where he ended up. That is the definition of CONSISTENCY. The fact that you refuse to believe it because you hate the leafs is what is inconsistent.

2.). I don’t compare point and Marner because they aren’t comparable. They are in different positions with different strengths and dramatically different tax scenarios. It’s stupid.

I will compare goal scoring winger vs playmaking C on the same team at the same time. Matthews makes more and is worth more. Goal scoring and C is worth more. I personally value 5 on 5 over pp scoring as well. That’s my personal preference. You can see the exact arguments I made in the laine/Matthews debates BEFORE they were selected. I don’t know whether or not that leads to differences in contract values.

I will also compare goal scoring C who are taxed in American tax free states. (Matthews Arizona hometown) vs point in Florida.

Matthews clearly deserves more. Even though the taxes aren’t exactly even STILL. It’s closer. Matthews has a way better pedigree. More consistent and much better total numbers. Matthews deserves
Way more.

I will also compare playmaking wingers who play with top C on different teams without tax advantages. Marner and rantanen. They have similar overall production. I would say relatively equal contracts.

You refuse to believe media when you want. You refuse to believe statistical models when you want. You refuse to understand the articles you present. You refuse to make appropriate comparables.

The only consistent thing is your obvious bias. I have decided that in a year I bet you declare yourself a neutral observer and ply your schtick on. The main board

Which extensive model?

 

[Legion34]

The leafs are going to front load far more than Tampa ever does.

Do you consider ANY financial advantage for a player to get a front loaded contract? If not, why do players fight so hard to get them? If yes, how significant is it exactly?

Again. Front loaded and signing bonus are two completely different things.

I do think front loading has an advantage. For both sides. When you have money like the leafs

Money now is better than money later. For the player. But for the team. Money now also lets you buy the player out.

That’s why Zaitsevs contract is a nightmare. He signed with 4.5 straight through. That’s a nightmare. If he signed for the same hit Frontloaded. He would be easier to move or buyout.

Similarly. Nylanders contract is a win win for both sides. He gets money up front now. The leafs. Who don’t care about money get him at a manageable hit when it matters. But they also get an asset who is owed less which is valuable to trade.

I think that it has value. Just like I think NMC or captaincy etc have value. What I don’t know. Is whether that actually leads
To lower cap hits. What I do know. Is that Tampa front loading and bonuses DOES.

You can even see it on the team. The mid range guys who do NOT get tax free bonuses do NOT sign for way less. Miller. Gourde. Etc

The players who DO get bonuses and tax exemptions DO

 

[Notsince67]

No that’s only for Americans. RCAs get taxed at 50 percent. It’s like a pension that you don’t have to wait until 60 to retire.

Marner is a Canadian who will work in Canada. Buy a house in Canada and make money in Canada. He can’t just go to Disney and take his money. Out.

If that were the case then every single Canadian with a govt pension could
Just retire to Florida and cash all their CPP and RRSP and get it tax free.

That would cost the govt BIllions

Retirement Compensation Arrangements: The Advantages of an RCA
You are incorrect. This kind of tax planning has been a tool for the rich for a while.

 

[Legion34]

Which extensive model?

Matt Cane. Google him. He predicts all of the UFA contracts. On May 21 he predicted Nylander to sign for a 6.95 x 6 contract.

 

[Legion34]

Retirement Compensation Arrangements: The Advantages of an RCA
You are incorrect. This kind of tax planning has been a tool for the rich for a while.

The taxation when you take it out as a Canadian resident is 50 percent.

If you are a non resident. Then it’s is 25.

https://ca.rbcwealthmanagement.com/delegate/services/file/787129/content


Of course this also is the plan where the employer contributes a pension equally with the employee. Just like a regular pension. So I don’t even think it applies really. But going by the article that the other guy put out it doesn’t really work for Canadians.

Again. In the actual situation that matters. There is a Canadian player. Who lives and plays in Canada. For him to get remotely the same tax benefits. Assuming it is even possible. (Which I don’t think it is but ok). He has to not touch 40 percent of his earnings for 15-20 years and then leave his country to collect money. He would have to become an established resident.

And he would STILL get taxed at a 42 percent total rate. Instead of guys like stamkos who get their bonuses free


RTAs also do not give interest. So you would have to weigh the potential loss of 15 years of investments and interest.

 

[Pi]

He and Pasta likely aren’t overly pleased with their agents

Pastrnak and Nylander had roughly the same number of points and games played when they were up for a contract. Account for the increase in cap and Nylander is paid the exact same % as Pastrnak was.

Pastrnak didn't have the ability to use a crystal ball at the time of the signing and find out he was going to break out after he signed the contract or he would have signed a bridge deal.

 

[Notsince67]

Matt Cane. Google him. He predicts all of the UFA contracts. On May 21 he predicted Nylander to sign for a 6.95 x 6 contract.

I already responded about this guy.
Nylander is getting too much hate, but the love might be returning!
If you are using this model as an argument, you are in quicksand.

 

[Legion34]

I already responded about this guy.
Nylander is getting too much hate, but the love might be returning!
If you are using this model as an argument, you are in quicksand.

Why? Despite arbitration team needs bidding wars and financial constraints he predicts contracts on average with a 300-700k. Margin of error.

That’s pretty good. What is your specific complaint about the model?

 

[Legion34]

Pastrnak and Nylander had roughly the same number of points and games played when they were up for a contract. Account for the increase in cap and Nylander is paid the exact same % as Pastrnak was.

Pastrnak didn't have the ability to use a crystal ball at the time of the signing and find out he was going to break out after he signed the contract or he would have signed a bridge deal.

Pasta actually got paid 8.89 percent vs 8.75

 

[Notsince67]

Why? Despite arbitration team needs bidding wars and financial constraints he predicts contracts on average with a 300-700k. Margin of error.

That’s pretty good. What is your specific complaint about the model?

You think his model calculation of "6x6.6M right now" for Marner is accurate? He calculated Nylander higher at the beginning of the season than Marner now. What a joke

 

[Legion34]

You think his model calculation of "6x6.6M right now" for Marner is accurate? He calculated Nylander higher at the beginning of the season than Marner now. What a joke

Sooo you are throwing out a model that has been quite accurate over 250 signings last year because of Marner? Is there any evidence that he has actually updated his model? or was that last year? The last posted models are for May 21, 2018..... Its more than likely that the model hasnt looked at

1.) the high cap
2.) the finished year......

There is more to the NHL than marner..... That doesn't invalidate the model

 

[Notsince67]

Sooo you are throwing out a model that has been quite accurate over 250 signings last year because of Marner? Is there any evidence that he has actually updated his model? or was that last year? The last posted models are for May 21, 2018..... Its more than likely that the model hasnt looked at

1.) the high cap
2.) the finished year......

There is more to the NHL than marner..... That doesn't invalidate the model

The leafs season was over and yeah...I would say that the model has issues. If Dubas has been using models like this, he better account for model risk. It probably cost him a bundle.


Edit...and his tweet was from this year

 

[Legion34]

The leafs season was over and yeah...I would say that the model has issues. If Dubas has been using models like this, he better account for model risk. It probably cost him a bundle.

The leafs season isn’t over? I would agree that if Marner scores 90-100 pts and the model still him at 6.6 that would be quiet an anomaly

 

[Willy Stylez]

Problem is, Kapannen hasn't been given the opportunities Nylander has.

.....