Confirmed with Link: Matthews new deal Pt 3

[Throw More Waffles]

The leafs season isn’t over? I would agree that if Marner scores 90-100 pts and the model still him at 6.6 that would be quiet an anomaly

It’s because the model is consistent and uses the same metrics to grade every player. Leaf fans here twist all the metrics around depending on which leaf players overpayment theyre trying to rationalize.

 

[Legion34]

It’s because the model is consistent and uses the same metrics to grade every player. Leaf fans here twist all the metrics around depending on which leaf players overpayment theyre trying to rationalize.

Huh? What are you saying?

 

[Throw More Waffles]

Huh? What are you saying?

When I brought up Nylander’s career high of 21 goals (over a full 82) compared to Pastrnaks 34 in 75 games, everyone SCREAMED at me that goals aren’t part of the equation.

Then, in the Matthews threads, goals magicallyncounted again.

Leaf fans use no consistency. They don’t even try.

Canes model is CONSISTEN. The same model that said Nandernis worth 7 mil aav said Matthews should be 9-9.5. That’s CONSISTENCY. It uses the precise same metrics to asses Matthews as Nylander. Leaf fans do NOT do that.

 

[Legion34]

When I brought up Nylander’s career high of 21 goals (over a full 82) compared to Pastrnaks 34 in 75 games, everyone SCREAMED at me that goals aren’t part of the equation.

Then, in the Matthews threads, goals magicallyncounted again.

Leaf fans use no consistency. They don’t even try.

Canes model is CONSISTEN. The same model that said Nandernis worth 7 mil aav said Matthews should be 9-9.5. That’s CONSISTENCY. It uses the precise same metrics to asses Matthews as Nylander. Leaf fans do NOT do that.

Except. I was the one who showed you canes model. Remember? You argued that it wasn’t valid. And complained and refused to believe it.

Then you saw Matthews was under. And now you think it matters. EVEN though cane specifically said his model doesn’t account for matthews.

Is this board for people to talk about the team? Or about fan consistency? How long are you planning on going on about this? Don’t mods stop you?

 

[Nineteen67]

In year three of this thread, will TMW and C34 both be right?

 

[Throw More Waffles]

Except. I was the one who showed you canes model. Remember? You argued that it wasn’t valid. And complained and refused to believe it.

Then you saw Matthews was under. And now you think it matters. EVEN though cane specifically said his model doesn’t account for matthews.

Is this board for people to talk about the team? Or about fan consistency? How long are you planning on going on about this? Don’t mods stop you?

My point is pretty clear.

You can’t use that model ONLY when it tells your what you WANT to hear.

If you believe that model is consistent for Nylander, then you can’t make lame excuses when it’s “wrong” about Matthews and Marner.

 

[Legion34]

My point is pretty clear.

You can’t use that model ONLY when it tells your what you WANT to hear.

If you believe that model is consistent for Nylander, then you can’t make lame excuses when it’s “wrong” about Matthews and Marner.

Except you can. When a model doesn’t accurately account for missed time. Like the ACTUAL PERSON WHO MADE IT did.

 

[Notsince67]

Sooo you are throwing out a model that has been quite accurate over 250 signings last year because of Marner? Is there any evidence that he has actually updated his model? or was that last year? The last posted models are for May 21, 2018..... Its more than likely that the model hasnt looked at

1.) the high cap
2.) the finished year......

There is more to the NHL than marner..... That doesn't invalidate the model

Just to summarize your opinion...Nylander's contract is perfect because it was validated by a model whose author publicly stated on Feb3, 2019 that his model currently estimates Marner's future contract value at 6x6.6MM.

I'll let it stand as is.

 

[The Hanging Jowl]

.....

They're the same age. Nylander spent the first 2 years of his career on the top line with Matthews. Kapannen has been buried in the AHL and spent a half season on Matthews' wing, which is no longer the 100% top line.

Care to explain what you disagree with?

 

[Legion34]

Just to summarize your opinion...Nylander's contract is perfect because it was validated by a model whose author publicly stated on Feb3, 2019 that his model currently estimates Marner's future contract value at 6x6.6MM.

I'll let it stand as is.

Well not exactly. My opinion is that while I wanted 6.5, Nylander s contract could be considered Fair based on multiple models that used 6 recent RFA wingers with the same ppg that all ended up in the 8-9 percent cap range. The most common published range was 6.7-7.2 x 6.


This is backed up by the most extensive published indepedent model which predicted 250 contracts within .003 and .009 percent accuracy predicted this contract within .0001 accuracy.

But sure. Whatever u like

 

[Menzinger]

They're the same age. Nylander spent the first 2 years of his career on the top line with Matthews. Kapannen has been buried in the AHL and spent a half season on Matthews' wing, which is no longer the 100% top line.

Care to explain what you disagree with?

He was still in the AHL because he wasn’t ready for they NHL at that age.

 

[Notsince67]

When I brought up Nylander’s career high of 21 goals (over a full 82) compared to Pastrnaks 34 in 75 games, everyone SCREAMED at me that goals aren’t part of the equation.

Then, in the Matthews threads, goals magicallyncounted again.

Leaf fans use no consistency. They don’t even try.

Canes model is CONSISTEN. The same model that said Nandernis worth 7 mil aav said Matthews should be 9-9.5. That’s CONSISTENCY. It uses the precise same metrics to asses Matthews as Nylander. Leaf fans do NOT do that.

How can it penalize Matthews yet value Nylander at more money in the summer than Marner now. This model is a piece of crap

 

[Legion34]

How can it penalize Matthews yet value Nylander at more money in the summer than Marner now. This model is a piece of crap

A piece of crap that accurately predicted 250’contracts with a very small degree of accuracy.

 

[Notsince67]

Well not exactly. My opinion is that while I wanted 6.5, Nylander s contract could be considered Fair based on multiple models that used 6 recent RFA wingers with the same ppg that all ended up in the 8-9 percent cap range. The most common published range was 6.7-7.2 x 6.


This is backed up by the most extensive published indepedent model which predicted 250 contracts within .003 and .009 percent accuracy predicted this contract within .0001 accuracy.

But sure. Whatever u like

If it barks, it aint a cow.

 

[Notsince67]

A piece of crap that accurately predicted 250’contracts with a very small degree of accuracy.

Tried to find a publication pre contract but I just don't see it.
On a different note, I finally figured out cold fusion.

 

[Legion34]

If it barks, it aint a cow.

What if it accurately predicts 250 contracts within a .003-.009 percent accuracy?

Is it a dog? A cow? Or an pretty fair representation of a fair contract that fits with multiple other comparables?

 

[Legion34]

Tried to find a publication pre contract but I just don't see it.
On a different note, I finally figured out cold fusion.

He provided his list on May 21, 2018. Some are high. Some are low. But for 250’contracts he gets most within 300-700k.

 

[The Hanging Jowl]

He was still in the AHL because he wasn’t ready for they NHL at that age.

In other words, he wasn't given the same opportunities Nylander was. You know, like I said.

 

[Swedish Gretzky]

Who will get the more lucrative contract? Marner or Point?

 

[Throw More Waffles]

Except you can. When a model doesn’t accurately account for missed time. Like the ACTUAL PERSON WHO MADE IT did.

Marner hasn’t missed much time. What’s the excuse there?

Seems like it JUST underestimates leaf contracts. Seems fishy...

 

[Throw More Waffles]

Who will get the more lucrative contract? Marner or Point?

I’ve asked that question about 20 times in this thread. Have only been met with spin as a response. The people here are TERRIFIED of this question.

 

[Swedish Gretzky]

I’ve asked that question about 2 times in this thread. Have only been met with spin as a response. The people here are TERRIFIED of this question.

I just want to know why Toronto players refuse to take a team discount? Why is it that Toronto players should get paid more than other players in the NHL? Is it a nuisance to play for a contender?

 

[Legion34]

Marner hasn’t missed much time. What’s the excuse there?

Seems like it JUST underestunates leaf contracts. Seems fishy...

The excuse is probably that Marner had seasons of 61 and 69 pts that were largely on the pp? The new model hasn’t been posted yet. But again. You are arguing that Leaf fans are selectively choosing to agree or disagree with the model based on what looks good for the leafs

So we are clear. You are saying that this independent statistician who has made a whole model just to make excuses for leaf fans? Or are you saying he is secretly a leaf fan and just decided to tell people that his model predicted 9.4 (which he didn’t have to) but then decided to make excuses?

Is he a leaf fan on this board too? If so. How is his low number for Marner fitting in at all with your argument

 

[Notsince67]

What if it accurately predicts 250 contracts within a .003-.009 percent accuracy?

Is it a dog? A cow? Or an pretty fair representation of a fair contract that fits with multiple other comparables?

First of all, I used to validate credit risk models and I know from experience that the models require calibration every 3 years or so. You cant make the claim of the veracity of a model of it has been changed and that sample size sounds like years. Smells like bs to me.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

I just want to know why Toronto players refuse to take a team discount? Why is it that Toronto players should get paid more than other players in the NHL? Is it a nuisance to play for a contender?

I’ve read that the way Toronto front loads their contracts makes up for most (if not all) of the tax benefits from places like Tampa. None of us are tax experts, so none of us know. Now... if Tampa actually started front loading their contracts the way Toronto does, they’d at that point have the clear advantage.